We’re trying a new closers format this week; we’re touching on fewer pitchers, but going into more detail on the ones that we discuss. We looked at some National League stoppers yesterday, and the AL closers are up now.

Neftali Feliz, Texas
Feliz has the AL lead in saves and is tied with San Francisco’s Brian Wilson for second in the Majors with 20 saves. This is all well and good – and darn impressive considering that Feliz is a 22-year-old rookie – but I have my concerns with his workload. The right-hander has appeared in more games and thrown more innings than any other closer in the American League. Only veterans Francisco Cordero (Good ol’ Dusty) and Francisco Rodriguez have been abused more amongst Major League stoppers. In one nine-game stretch in mid-May, Feliz was used six times. This workload has yet to catch up to the young star – and maybe he’ll be OK the entire 2010 season – but it definitely makes me worried for his future.

Bobby Jenks, Chicago
I’ve been talking Jenks up for a few weeks now, and he continues to make me look smart, but there are still a lot of owners out there that will be turned off by his 4.03 ERA and the hit rate of 9.62 H/9. However, Jenks’ strikeout rate (10.86 K/9) is sitting close to his career high set during his rookie season in 2005. His xFIP is also sitting at 2.68 and he’s allowed just one earned run in his last 13 appearances. It’s possible that other fantasy manages have already caught on to the reversal of fortunes but, if not, pounce on Jenks.

Kevin Gregg, Toronto
One of the best things since sliced bread during about the first six weeks of the season, Gregg has come crashing back down to earth (which has all Cubs fans saying “We warned you”). Like Matt Capps in Washington, Gregg could end up being a trade chip during the July trade deadline, but he’s unlikely to end up in a closer’s situation if he does get moved. It’s also possible that Toronto will hold on to him, as his trade value has diminished with his recent struggles, and the organization also has an option on his contract for 2011. Gregg has pitched a little bit better in the last week or so and has gone 4-for-4 in saves since his last blown save, so you might be able to find a taker on the trade market.

Jonathan Papelbon, Boston
Papelbon is owned in just as many Yahoo leagues as Mariano Rivera (98%), but the Yankees closer has been twice as value in traditional 5X5 leagues. He has been one of the best closers in baseball over the previous four seasons, but the 29-year-old closer has just not been himself this season. Papelbon has seen his strikeout rate drop from 10.06 in ’09 to 7.67 K/9 in ’10. His xFIP is almost a full run higher and he’s really been beaten by the long ball (1.71 HR/9). After seeing his WAR value hit 3.0 in ’08, it’s dropped to 1.9 in ’09 and -0.2 so far in ’10. He was touched up for five runs and two blown saves in the recent series with Colorado so you might want to wait a week or two before trying to get something for him in a trade. Papelbon will have value based on his reputation.

Daniel Bard is setting himself up quite nicely to be ready to assume the closer’s role in 2011. The 25-year-old sophomore pitcher has a strikeout rate of 9.39 K/9 and he’s shown significantly-improved control this season. He’s also shown two plus pitches: a 98-mph fastball and a wipe-out slider. Bard has gone 3-for-4 in save opportunities.

We’re trying a new closers format this week; we’re touching on fewer pitchers, but going into more detail on the ones that we discuss. First up are the National League closers.

Billy Wagner, Atlanta
Next to Jonathan Broxton in Los Angeles, Wagner has arguably been the second-best fantasy closer in the NL, despite beginning the year with just two saves prior to May 5. Wagner is a perfect 7-for-7 in saves in the month of June and has 11 strikeouts in 9.1 innings. Oh, and he hasn’t allowed an earned run. That is all very exciting stuff and has increased Wagner’s value significantly, which is why this might be a great time to trade him. The soon-to-be-39-year-old pitcher threw just 15.2 innings in ’09 so there are some questions as to his stamina. A lot of his closer value is also tied up in the 5-0 record that he has, which has basically been a matter of luck and is really not sustainable.

John Axford, Milwaukee
It’s probably a little too late to think about obtaining Axford in a lot of leagues, but he’s still available in more than half of Yahoo leagues; maybe you’ll get lucky and find him sitting on the free agent list. The right-hander has gone 6-for-6 in saves and has struck out 22 batters in 19.0 innings. The club has also been playing well lately (four game winning streak) and faces some easier opponents over the next week in Seattle and Houston.

Brad Lidge, Philadelphia
I know, I know… you’ve probably been burned by Lidge in the past. But look at his 2010 numbers. Now healthy, the veteran pitcher has a strikeout rate of 13.09 K/9 and a walk rate of just 2.45 BB/9 (down from a career mark of 4.03 BB/9). His strikeout pitch, the slider, is still not up to its usual plus level, but it’s been OK and he’s showing improved fastball command. Lidge is not the safest bet, but you have to take some risks to win it all… and Philly should get him a good number of leads to protect over the second half of the season.

Matt Capps, Washington
It was nice while it lasted but Washington is slowly falling out of the race in the NL East. While this isn’t necessarily a bad thing for a closer (a bad team can end up in a lot of close ball games heading into the ninth), but Capps could be headed out of town at the trade deadline (Drew Storen is the closer of the near future). He’s not a bad closer by any means (3.57 FIP, MLB-leading save total) but the former Pirate could end up as a set-up man if he does change uniforms. Capps definitely has real-life trade value thanks to his solid numbers, modest salary and 1+ years remaining before free agency. Don’t just jettison him on waivers; look to deal him for something of value to fill a hole on your roster.

Scott Feldman has undergone some drastic transformations during the course of his pro career. Texas’ 30th round pick in the 2003 draft was a nondescript reliever on the mend from Tommy John surgery when Orel Hershiser suggested a sidearm delivery in the spring of 2005. After bouncing between Triple-A Oklahoma and Arlington over the ’05 to ’07 seasons, getting lots of grounders out of the ‘pen but struggling to locate at the big league level, Feldman switched to a three-quarters delivery and moved to the starting rotation in 2008.

The results weren’t pretty (a 5.29 ERA in 151.1 innings), but Feldman showed considerable improvement in 2009 while going to a cutter to keep lefty batters from taking him to the woodshed. His ERA dropped to 4.08. The Rangers signed the mop-up man-turned-starter through his arbitration years this past winter, with an option for his first free agent season in 2013.

So far, it looks as though Feldman has turned back into a pumpkin. Tossing 89.2 innings, the 27-year-old righty holds a gruesome 5.32 ERA. What has changed between Feldman’s 2009 breakout and 2010 beat down? Very little, actually.

Last year, Feldman had 5.36 K/9 and 3.08 BB/9 in 189.2 innings. This season, he’s whiffing 5.82 batters per nine and issuing 2.91 BB/9. He induced ground balls 46.8% in ’09, and 44.2% in 2010. There’s nothing dramatically different here — a few more whiffs and a few less worm killers.

Same story with Feldman’s plate discipline stats. His swinging strike rate was 6.5% in 2009, and is 6.4% in 2010 (8-8.5% MLB average). Feldman got a first pitch strike 57.5% last season, and is getting ahead of the hitter 58.9% this year (58% MLB average). His overall contact rate, 84.6% in ’09, is 85.7% in 2010 (81% MLB average). In terms of getting swings on pitches out of the zone, Feldman’s doing a slightly better job this season — his O-Swing was 25% in 2009 (25.1% MLB average that year) and is 29.8% in 2010 (28.3% MLB average).

Feldman’s pitch selection is a bit different (more mid-70’s curves in place of 90-91 MPH fastballs), but the results between his ’09 and ’10 seasons are strikingly similar. Why, then, has his ERA soared more than a Vlad Guerrero home run?

Last season, Feldman benefited from a .276 BABIP. In 2010, balls put in play against him are falling for hits at an absurd clip — his BABIP is .352, trailing only Zach Duke and Randy Wells among qualified big league starters. Also, Feldman’s strand rate has slipped. After leaving 72.8% of base runners high and dry in ’09, his LOB rate is down to 64% this year (70-72% MLB average). He’s not pitching worse with men on base:

Feldman with runners on base

2009: 4.48 K/9, 3.7 BB/9, 4.66 xFIP, .252 BABIP
2010: 5.89 K/9, 3.25 BB/9, 4.50 xFIP, .338 BABIP

Truth be told, Feldman is neither the rotation stalwart that his shiny 17-win total from 2009 suggests, nor the bust that his 2010 ERA implies. Both seasons, he has been a passable starter — Feldman’s xFIP was 4.49 last season, and is 4.58 in 2010. Despite the wild fluctuations in his surface stats, Feldman’s the same pitcher he was last year.

When the Seattle Mariners acquired Milton Bradley from the Chicago Cubs for RHP Carlos Silva over the winter, most thought the M’s had stolen a high-OBP hitter with decent pop for a washed up starter with a bum shoulder. Yet, it’s Bradley who’s looking like the scrub so far — while a back-from-the-dead Silva has racked up 1.6 WAR, Milton is mired in a deep offensive funk and has -0.2 WAR in 2010.

No one expected Bradley the replicate his feats of strength over the 2007 and 2008 seasons, when he posted a .417 wOBA and a park-and-league-adjusted wOBA 58 percent better than average (158 wRC+). But both CHONE and ZiPS figured he’d top his 2009 numbers produced as a Cub (.257/.378/.397, .345 wOBA, 108 wRC+). CHONE thought he’d bat .262/.368/.427, upping his wOBA to .353 and his wRC+ to 117. ZiPS projected a .254/.371/.421 line, with a .355 wOBA and a 118 wRC+.

Suffice it to say, Bradley’s bat is falling well short of those expectations. In 205 plate appearances, the switch-hitter has a feeble .207/.299/.346 triple-slash and a .291 wOBA. Safeco Field saps offense, suppressing runs by six percent and homers by seven percent compared to a neutral park from 2007-2009 (per the Bill James Handbook). But even so, Bradley’s offensive has been, well, offensive — his wRC+ is 80.

The first thing most will point to regarding the 32-year-old’s numbers is his .263 BABIP. And he has been unlucky to an extent — Bradley’s expected BABIP is .303. That’s still below his .319 career BABIP, as well as his BABIP projections from CHONE (.318) and ZiPS (.309).

Why’s that? Bradley’s batted ball distribution is different this season, and the change has not been positive. He’s hitting fewer ground balls and more fly balls than usual, with a 35.5 GB% (42.9 GB% from 2007-2009) and a 45.5 FB% (35.7 FB% from ’07 to ’09). Those extra fly balls are weakly hit, as Bradley’s infield/fly ball rate has spiked to 18.2% (8.4 IF/FB% from ’07 to ’09, 7-8% MLB average). Infield flies are basically automatic outs, so the increase in pop ups helps explain the low BABIP.

In addition to hitting the ball up the elevator shaft often, Bradley’s not controlling the strike zone quite as well as he usually does. While still patient, he’s chasing more pitches out of the strike zone (relative to the MLB average):

The extra swings on off-the-plate pitches contribute to his lower-than-projected walk rate of 10.2% (12.8 BB% from CHONE, 14.5 BB% from ZiPS).

On pitches within the zone, Bradley’s coming up empty at the highest rate of his career. His Z-Contact% is 81.4. For reference, his Z-Contact over the 2007-2009 seasons was 82.6%, and the MLB average is about 88%. His overall contact rate is 73.8% (75.8% from ’07 to ’09, 81% MLB average). In addition to making less contact, Milton’s getting caught looking often. According to StatCorner, Bradley’s percentage of PA ending in a called strikeout is 9.3% this season, while the MLB average is 4.5% and his 2007-2009 rate was in the six percent range. Not surprisingly, his K rate is a career-high 31.3%. Whiffs aren’t the end of the world for a hitter who works deep counts and makes things happen when he does put the ball in play, but it’s been a while since Bradley displayed more than middling power — his ISO in 678 PA since the beginning of 2009 is .140.

Bradley should perform better in the months to come, particularly if he shows his trademark plate discipline and limits the pop ups. ZiPS projects a .240/.352/.390 line, with a .338 wOBA. It’s hard to be overly enthusiastic, though. Beside the ever-present injury risk associated with him, Bradley no longer comes with the promise of elite secondary skills — he’s a singles-and-doubles hitter in a park that smiles upon pitchers.

Acquired before the 2009 season for Edwin Jackson, Matt Joyce has accumulated just 37 PA with the Rays despite posting a .355 wOBA in 277 PA with the Tigers the year before the trade. Part of that has been because of an elbow issue this season, and part of it has to do with his generally underwhelming big league performance last year (.329 wOBA).

The 25-year-old Joyce has crushed Triple-A pitching in the interim, hitting .273/.373/.482 with 35 doubles, 16 homers, and 14 steals in 493 plate appearances last year. Once he got over the elbow woes, he put up a stout .314/.458/.545 batting line in just over a month’s worth of games in the bush leagues. Carl Crawford’s sore shoulder necessitated the addition of another outfielder, so up came Joyce and down went the supremely unproductive Dioner Navarro (.265 wOBA since the start of ’09).

CHONE projected a rather pedestrian .239/.325/.422 batting line from Joyce in 393 AB before the season, though that came with 15 homers and five steals. It’s not too difficult to see him outperforming that AVG, and the bat really isn’t the question. The playing time is.

Tampa enjoys perhaps more roster flexibility than any other team. Ben Zobrist can quite literally play anywhere. Willy Aybar has spent a bunch of time at DH this year, but he can handle the three non-shortstop infield positions with aplomb. Reid Brignac plays both middle infield spots, ditto Sean Rodriguez. The latter has also spent a bunch of time in centerfield this year. Depending on who’s banged up or who the opposing starter is or who’s swinging the bat well, Joe Maddon has plenty of options when filling out his lineup card.

Joyce figures to get regular at-bats for the time being, though that depends entirely on the severity of Crawford’s injury. Lefty masher Gabe Kapler is on the shelf with a hip issue, making a straight platoon unlikely for now. Hank Blalock has been having a devil of a time since being called up (.306 wOBA), so there’s a chance Joyce could steal some at-bats from him, especially with the three catcher situation dissolved and the need for one of John Jaso and Kelly Shoppach to be on the bench as the backup.

I definitely like Joyce for fantasy purposes given his potential for double digit homers and double digit steals (over a full season), even more so in OBP leagues. There are definitely worse options over there for 4th OF/2nd UTIL spots, and you know if Joyce produces, Maddon will give him playing time even after Crawford and Kapler return. The playing time isn’t really a concern in that he might be benched for weeks at a time, it’s just unpredictable. That could all be sorted out by next week, though. I love Joyce in AL only leagues and deep mixed leagues, though you can afford to wait a bit before pouncing in a normal 12-teamer. He’s available in pretty much every Yahoo! league, at the moment.

Two players with low ownership rates that might want to consider picking up…

Jason Hammel | Rockies | SP | 24% owned

Hammel has been quite the find for the Rockies, who acquired him last year from the Rays and watched him post a 3.81 xFIP in 176.1 IP. After a rocky (pun intended) start to the 2010 season, Hammel settled down this month and has been downright fantastic. He hasn’t allowed a run in his last three starts, and ever since a May 21st drubbing at the hands of the Royals, Hammel has a 0.78 ERA and has held opponents to a .244/.304/.283 batting line against. His strikeout rate has steadily climbed to 6.99 K/9 over the last few years, and (R) ZiPS sees a 4.39 ERA and 6.32 K/9 the rest of the way.

You probably don’t have time to grab him into time for tonight’s start against the Red Sox, though you’d probably want to sit him anyway. He’s lined up to finish off the first half with assignments in San Diego, at home against the Giants, and then at home against the Padres. Yes please.

Justin Smoak | Rangers | 1B | 15%

Brian advised you to grab Smoak at the end of last month, noting that his BABIP and LD% indicated a surge was coming. Well, Brian absolutely nailed it, as Smoak has hit to the tune of a .400 wOBA this month, driving in 20 runs and scoring 14 more as part of Texas’ June assault on pitching. His BABIP (.254) is still in the process of correcting itself, so there’s hope that this torrid stretch will continue through the break.

Luckily there’s still a good chance that Smoak is available in your league, and he’ll likely settle in with a .280 AVG and a .160 ISO or so the rest of the way.

Ownership rates based on Yahoo! leagues.

Tampa Bay Rays righty James Shields is seemingly turning in a mediocre performance in 2010. The 28-year-old owns a 6-7 record and has a middling 4.55 ERA, a combination that has led 11 percent on Yahoo fantasy players to pull the plug on the changeup artist. Is Shields struggling? Not really. But how bullish you are on his numbers improving depends upon your ERA estimator of choice.

In 99 innings pitched, Tampa’s 16th round pick in the 2000 draft has 8.36 K/9, 2 BB/9 and a 42.3% ground ball rate. That K rate is well above his career average of 7.29 K/9, while he’s basically matching his career totals in terms of walks and worm burners (1.94 BB/9 and 43.5 GB%, respectively).

Not much has changed in terms of his pitch selection or plate discipline stats. Shields is still leaping ahead in the count, getting first pitch strikes 61% of the time (60.4% career average, 58% MLB average). His contact rates aren’t drastically different, though he’s actually getting slightly fewer whiffs than normal — his swinging strike rate is 9.1% (10% career average, 8-8.5% MLB average) and his contact rate is 81% (78.8% career average, 81% MLB average). The cause of Shields’ increased K rate isn’t whiffs, but called strikes — his called strike percentage is 17.8% this season, compared to 16.7-17% over the past few years (17% MLB average). Called Strike% has a lower correlation with K rate than swinging strike rate, so it seems likely that Shields punch out rate comes back toward his career average (7.29 per nine). Zips projects 7.23 K/9 for the rest of 2010.

No huge, negative changes to this point. So, why the run-of-the-mill ERA for Shields? For one, he’s got a .339 BABIP this season, compared to a .310 career average. Opponents have hit a good deal of line drives against Shields this season — 21.5% (the MLB average is 18.9%, according to StatCorner). Two interpretations of that number come to mind.

On one hand, line drives falls for hits on balls in play more than 73 percent of the time, so that certainly contributes to the higher-than-usual BABIP. On the other hand, line drive rate is a rather volatile stat, and Shields’ career 19 LD% is right around the big league average. That suggests batters don’t typically scorch the ball against him. If his line drive rate comes back toward that career rate, his BABIP should fall. Shields has also allowed home runs on fly balls hit 14.4% time, well above his career 11.5% figure and the 11% MLB average.

Shields’ line drive and homer rate help explain the dichotomy between his tERA and xFIP. His tERA (tRA put on the same scale as ERA), is 4.43. tERA assigns an average run value to batted ball outcomes like line drives, ground balls, outfield fly balls and infield fly balls, as well as run values for K’s, walks, HBP’s and home runs. Liners and home runs obviously have a high run value, so a pitcher giving up lots of them like Shields is going to get dinged. Meanwhile, his xFIP, based on strikeouts, walks and a normalized HR/FB rate, is actually a career-best 3.50. xFIP sees strong peripherals and poor luck on fly balls, and expects considerable improvement.

Personally, I’d take the middle ground between those two figures. It’s unlikely that Shields allows so many liners or homers per fly ball hit against him moving forward. But it’s also unlikely that he continues to punch out so many batters. ZiPS thinks he’ll split the middle, too, with a rest-of-season FIP of 3.91. Shields is well worth owning in all formats — if he’s on the wire, snag him and expect a high-three’s ERA for the rest of 2010.

Coming into the year, we weren’t expecting Ichiro to have another top-20 fantasy season, and for good reason. He only stole 26 bases in 2009, and expecting a 36 year old to continue to flash top notch speed is asking too much. To refresh your memory, this is what I had to say about Ichiro in the Second Opinion:

Ichiro’s main value, his speed, is slowly dying. Even though he missed time at the start of the season with a bleeding ulcer, he probably would have fallen short of the 30 steals mark for the first time in his career…another .300 season with 90 runs and 25 stolen bases is on the horizon for Ichiro in 2010

To date, Ichiro has stolen 20 bases in 27 tries, while batting .336/.389/.437 in 313 plate appearances. When I said he’d steal 25 bases, I had no idea he’d reach that mark by the All-Star break. So, what gives? Last season, the Mariners attempted 122 steals over a 162 game season. This year, they have attempted to swipe a bag 77 times in only 70 games. You don’t need to be a math major to see that the Mariners are running at a much higher rate than before. This is likely because the Mariners offense lacks a big time slugger to drive runners in, in conjunction with the offseason addition of another speed threat in Chone Figgins. If the guys on the basepaths don’t make things happen, the team is less likely to have runners cross home plate.

ESPN’s Player Rater ranks Ichiro as the 21st best fantasy player thus far. While I’m not sure what that means (seeing that ESPN doesn’t explain their methods), it is much higher than I had him ranked coming into the year (39th). As long as his steal rate doesn’t turn Nyjeresque, Ichiro is still a top talent in fantasy leagues. His high average combined with his high at-bat totals can help your team support bigger sluggers, which is a huge plus in roto leagues.

Some more fun facts about Ichiro to get you through the day:

– Ichiro is better than you, and he knows it.
– Last season, Ichiro’s batted ball percentages (LD/GB/FB) were 18.2/55.6/26.2. This year? A remarkably consistent 18.0/55.5/26.5.
– Ichiro’s strikeout rate is the worst of his career, while his walk rate is the second best he’s ever had.
– Ichiro is a snappy dresser.
– Ichiro’s ISO (.101) is exactly the same as his career rate.
– Ichiro’s current wRC+ ranks 2010 as his second best offensive season (tied with 2001, his rookie year).
– Throughout his entire career, Ichiro has gotten a hit on half of his bunts.
– Ichiro replaced Jay Buhner long ago, and I still haven’t forgiven him.

Baltimore Orioles acquired DH/1B?/3B?/OF?/C? Jake Fox from the Oakland Athletics for RHP Ross Wolf and cash.

In the article linked to above, Baltimore president of baseball operations Andy MacPhail touts Fox’s “roster flexibility” — the former Cubs prospect, acquired by the A’s in a trade over the winter and recently DFA’d, has experience in the infield and outfield corners, as well as at catcher. It’s technically true that Fox can man those spots, in that he’ll strap on the gear and squat behind the plate if asked, or stand at one of those corner positions and pray that he doesn’t get a screaming liner or have to run one down in the gap, but his limited defensive prowess leaves him as a man without a position.

The A’s picked up Fox for his bat — the career .293/.357/.528 minor league hitter posted a .259/.311/.468 triple-slash with the Cubs in 2009, with a .332 wOBA in 241 plate appearances. Fox showed plenty of pop (.208 Isolated Power), but his lack of patience was glaring. The 6-0, 210 pound right batter chased 37.8% of pitches thrown outside of the strike zone (25.1% MLB average). Not surprisingly, Fox got behind in the count regularly (65.6 first pitch strike%, 58.2% MLB average) and walked just 5.8% of the time.

Unfortunately, Fox took his hacking even further during his brief Oakland tenure. He ventured out of the zone 47.5% (28.3% MLB average), putting the ball in play on the first pitch or getting behind 0-and-1 70.1% (58.4% MLB average). In 107 PA with the A’s, Fox batted .212/.262/.323, putting up a .262 wOBA and a .111 ISO.

What can we expect from Fox for the rest of 2010? ZiPS projects a .253/.313/.438 line (.330 wOBA), while CHONE sees a .256/.313/.440 offensive showing. Just where he plays in Baltimore remains to be seen — manager Juan Samuel said he’ll likely come off the bench, playing mostly 1B and LF while occasionally spelling Matt Wieters at catcher. Fox’s addition may well spell the end of Garrett Atkins’ nightmarish stay (-1 WAR) in Baltimore.

The Orioles, woefully out of contention, do have a fluid roster situation. Players like Luke Scott, Ty Wigginton and Miguel Tejada could be dangled in trades. If some O’s vets find new teams, Fox could see increased PT. Then again, Felix Pie (back) figures to return from the DL sometime in early July, and while 3B Josh Bell isn’t enjoying a banner season at Triple-A Norfolk (.273/.320/451), the club could choose to bring him up to the majors later this summer. 1B Brandon Snyder is a lukewarm prospect (.251/.320/.366 at Triple-A over the past two seasons), but I suppose he could factor in as well.

Given Fox’s potential to take on an expanded role while qualifying at several positions, he’s worth monitoring in AL-only leagues. However, he’s a wreck at the plate right now and doesn’t project as more than a league-average batter. Fox’s ultra-aggressive, high-power approach comes at the expense of reaching base regularly. He should probably stay on the waiver wire for now.

Here are seven players for your consideration to either acquire or send packing.

BUY

Zack Greinke – Last Player Picked has Greinke’s 2010 season valued at $0 so far this season, the same as Brandon League and Hisanori Takahashi. Clearly, that is not what owners expected when they spent a second or third-round pick on him. He is underperforming in every category, especially Wins, where he really has a chance to turn things around from here on out. Many fantasy owners abhor chasing Wins but with Greinke we have a player with a .200 winning percentage who has an outside shot to finish above .500 for the season. (R) ZiPS sees him going 8-6 and while that won’t get him to .500 it will make him a much more valuable pitcher going forward.

Pablo Sandoval – Coming into 2009, most fantasy owners thought Sandoval would hit for a good AVG but not give much in HR. Then he went out and put up a .330-25 season and expectations went through the roof for 2010. Sandoval has not met those expectations, instead putting up numbers more in line with preseason 2009 projections. Currently, Sandoval is struggling on the road, where he has a .261 BABIP and a .100 ISO. He is also scuffling versus LHP, with a .229 AVG. Last year Sandoval hit .379 versus southpaws. Sandoval is not going to revert to 2009 levels but there is room for growth in both power and especially AVG.

Matt Wieters – Subjectively, Wieters looks terrible at the plate. Objectively, Wieters has been similar to what he was in 2009 except for poor luck on BABIP. His ISO of .115 is right in line with the .124 he put up last year. His BB/K of 0.38 is similar to last year’s 0.33 and his HR/FB rate of 9.1 compares favorably to last season’s 8.4 percent. But last year Wieters had a .356 BABIP while this year it checks in 90 points lower. Any owner who has watched him play will be happy to trade him. Anyone who believes in regression could see him being a serviceable fantasy catcher the rest of the year.

SELL

Cole Hamels – One of the most common questions asked in these columns is “What could I get for Player X in trade?” That’s an impossible question to answer because there are so many variables involved, not the least of which is an individual owner’s trading skills. But since he was listed as a “buy” above, how about trading Hamels for Greinke? Here are the current numbers:

CH – 6 W, 3.75 ERA, 85 Ks, 1.31 WHIP — $3
ZG – 2 W, 3.94 ERA, 83 Ks, 1.20 WHIP — $0

And here are the (R) ZiPS projections:

CH – 7 W, 3.98 ERA, 109 Ks, 1.23 WHIP
ZG – 8 W, 3.41 ERA, 121 Ks, 1.18 WHIP

Kevin Kouzmanoff – After a slow start, Kouzmanoff has been raking in the month of June, with a .402 AVG, 5 HR and 13 RBIs, and a week still to go to pad the counting numbers. Kouzmanoff has a good chance to reach 20 HR but he has never been very good with his BABIP, which currently sits at .320 for the season. His current AVG seems inflated and this feels like the right time to execute a sell-high move.

Ty Wigginton – Perhaps a bit past the peak time to sell high, Wigginton still has good overall numbers. He has additional value due to his position eligibility. He has played over 20 games at both 1B and 2B, which combined with his eligibility at 3B from last season, makes him available to fill multiple holes for potential owners. While the forecast is not pessimistic for Wigginton going forward, owners have to be concerned about playing time. He is a butcher in the field and with the Orioles going nowhere, he could easily lose ABs down the stretch to younger players.

HUNCH

Alfredo Simon – Earlier in the year it looked like Simon was grabbing hold of the closer’s role. But an injury put everything in flux and the Orioles have David Hernandez and Mike Gonzalez as immediate and future competitors for the position. But I like Simon’s chances to nail down the role. (R) ZiPS really can’t be used as a comparison in this case, as it sees him making some starts the rest of the season. But Simon has 7 Saves currently and has a shot to finish the year with 20.