Updates on four rotation spots, all in the NL…

Chad Billingsley | Dodgers | 87% owned

Just off a groin strain induced DL stint, Billingsley comes back just in time to face the Giants in San Francisco tonight. He was dealing with some bad BABIP (.332) and strand rate (69.2%) luck prior to going on the shelf, but (R) ZiPS projects a 3.41 ERA (3.38 FIP) with just shy of a strikeout per inning the rest of the way. After tonight, he lines up to start in Arizona and at home against the Cubs before All Star break.

Madison Bumgarner | Giants | 8%

The allure of top prospects can be too much to pass up at times. Bumgarner’s velocity mysteriously disappeared last season and really hasn’t returned yet, and to no surprise he’s yet to return to the 9.00 K/9 range once predicted for him. He held his own against the Red Sox in a losing cause yesterday (7 IP, 4 ER), but it’s hard to predict anything more than a mid-4.00’s ERA the rest of the way unless he bumps up the 6.4 K/9 he showed in Triple-A this season. His three starts before the break come at the Rockies, at Milwaukee, and at the Nationals.

Tom Gorzelanny | Cubs | 4%

Not only is Carlos Zambrano suspended indefinitely, but he’s headed back to the bullpen whenever he does return. Gorzelanny has pitched surprisingly well this season after some ugly years in Pittsburgh, posting a 3.41 ERA (3.82 xFIP) with more than a strikeout per inning. (R) ZiPS unsurprisingly sees a slight step back the rest of the way, but there’s no shame in having a 4.33 ERA (4.02 FIP), 7.75 K/9 pitcher on your staff. Gorz’s final three starts before the break comes against his former team, then at the D-Backs and at the Dodgers.

Bud Norris | Astros | 3%

Norris hit the DL with some biceps tendinitis, but returns to face the Brew Crew in Milwaukee tonight. His ERA was an unsightly 6.80 before the injury, but his peripherals were stellar: 4.03 xFIP, 11.13 K/9. Once his .400 BABIP and 58.9% LOB% regress back to normalcy, you’d got yourself a rock solid fantasy starter, albeit without many wins. (R) ZiPS predicts a 4.83 ERA (4.25 FIP), 8.61 K/9 the rest of the way, and after tonight he’ll start in San Diego and at home against the Cardinals before the break.

Ownership rates based on Yahoo! leagues.

Having acclimated himself to the majors reasonably well in 2009, Alcides Escobar became the Milwaukee Brewers’ long-term option at shortstop following the club’s decision to deal J.J. Hardy to the Minnesota Twins. Escobar entered 2010 as an intriguing fantasy option, given his upper-echelon speed and history of wreaking havoc on the base paths in the minors. Yet, the 23-year-old holds a roster spot in just 11 percent of Yahoo leagues. Escobar’s living up to his reputation in the field (+4.7 UZR/150), but not so much at the plate or on the bases. Let’s take a closer look at his performance this season.

Escobar put up a .304/.333/.368 line and a .311 wOBA in 134 plate appearances in 2009, without much in the way of walks (3 BB%) or power (.064 ISO). That was to be expected, though — the 6-1, 180 pound righty batter hit a cumulative .293/.333/.377 in the minors, with a five percent rate of free passes taken and a .084 ISO. Escobar did improve his offensive game as the climbed the ladder (.328/.363/.434, 5.2 BB%, .106 ISO in Double-A in 2008, .298/.353/.409, 6.6 BB% .111 ISO at Triple-A in 2009), but ZiPS and CHONE both projected a mild showing with the lumber:

ZiPS: .279/.321/.378, 5.4 BB%, .099 ISO, .315 wOBA
CHONE: .291/.334/.389, 5.2 BB%, .098 ISO, .322 wOBA

Thus far, Escobar has fallen short of those forecasts. He’s got a .246/.298/.340 triple-slash in 268 PA, with a .285 wOBA. His bat has been -8.1 runs below average already. While hardly a model of plate patience, Escobar hasn’t been a total hacker, with a 6.7 BB% and a 29.8 outside swing percentage (28.4% MLB average). He’s also hitting with the same authority as CHONE and ZiPS projected, which is to say, little (.094 ISO).

The reason Escobar’s wOBA thirty to forty points lower than predicted is his .272 BABIP. From ’05 to ’09, Alcides had a .346 BABIP in the minors, and his BABIP with the Brewers last season was .346. ZiPS projected a .323 BABIP for Escobar this season, while CHONE had a .340 estimate. His expected BABIP, based on his rate of homers, K’s, stolen bases, line drives, fly balls, pop ups and ground balls, is .309.

To this point, Escobar’s line drives have fallen for hits at a clip well below the NL average. Less surprisingly, he has an above-average BABIP on grounders, and little happens when he hits a fly ball:

(Numbers from Baseball-Reference)

Escobar will likely see his BABIP climb in the months to come, but it’s anyone’s guess what he’ll do once he reaches base. He stole 34 bases in 42 tries with Huntsville in 2008, and nabbed 42 bags in 52 attempts with Nashville in 2009. ZiPS projected 25 steals in 2010, and CHONE 26. Yet, Escobar has attempted just six steals so far, getting caught once. It’s a strange development for a guy Baseball America called “a constant threat to steal bases.”

Considering his defensive gifts, Alcides Escobar should be a quality starter for the Brewers as long as he manages to avoid being a total zero at the plate. But to gain favor in fantasy formats, he’ll need to use his wheels more often.

Here is the last-minute look at the two-start pitchers for Week 13. First the starters who you may be on the fence about putting into your lineup:

Dallas Braden – Since pitching his perfect game, Braden is 0-5 with a 1.417 WHIP. In his last three starts, he has allowed 26 hits in 17.2 IP. Leave him on the bench for his two road starts.

Jason Hammel – Upon being activated from the disabled list in mid-May, Hammel is 5-1 with a 2.58 ERA. While he has not pitched well on the road this season, he does get a start in Petco to go along with his home outing against the Giants. Ride the hot hand and make sure Hammel is in the lineup.

Ted Lilly – The Cubs lefty has hurled a Quality Start in eight of his last nine outings. He also has 30 Ks in his last 35 IP, so the Ks are coming back, too. With two home starts, including one against the Pirates, Lilly needs to be in your lineup this week.

Brandon Morrow – Wherever he pitches, Morrow piles up the strikeouts, with a 9.86 K/9. But he has not been a road warrior in 2010. Morrow is 0-4 with a 7.09 ERA and a 1.848 WHIP away from Toronto. It’s tough to pass up the possibility of 15+ Ks, but that ERA and WHIP are potential staff killers. Deactivate Morrow this week if you can.

Joel Pineiro – In his last four games, Pineiro is 4-0 with a 2.08 ERA. He also is doing nice in strikeouts, with 22 Ks in 30.1 IP over that span. Activate him for his two home starts this week

Other scheduled two-start pitchers in Week 13 are listed below. Please remember that these are projected pitchers and changes can and will happen during the week.

Jimenez, Wainwright, Carpenter, Lee, Cain, Gallardo, Strasburg, Liriano, Hughes, Haren, Hudson, Romero, Zito, Shields, Cueto, Leake, Nolasco, Buehrle, Carmona, Myers, Dickey, Billingsley, Bonderman, Takahashi, Matusz, Blanton, LeBlanc, Wells, Feldman, Correia, Kendrick, Blackburn, Parra, Westbrook, Maholm, LeRew, Norris, Karstens, Stammen.

Now I want to provide some accountability and check in and see how previous recommendations turned out. There needs to be a two-week lag, since last week’s pitchers have not completed their second start yet. So here are Week 11 pitchers and how they fared.
Kuroda – Advised to sit. W, 1.50 ERA, 17 Ks, 1.000 WHIP (2 starts)
Marcum – Advised to sit. W, 2.25 ERA, 10 Ks, 1.250 WHIP (2)
Masterson – Advised to start. 5.54 ERA, 9 Ks, 1.385 WHIP (2)
J. Sanchez – Advised to start. W, 3.48 ERA, 10 Ks, 1.645 WHIP (2)
Wilson – Advised to start. 2.77 ERA, 10 Ks, 1.308 WHIP (2)

We all know about Robinson Cano’s MVP-caliber season so far in 2010, which has him ranked as the fifth most valuable player in standard 5X5 Yahoo leagues, but don’t forget about the keystone warrior in Atlanta.

Martin Prado, 26, is leading the Majors in hits (104 in 74 games) and was just one of four players with more than 100 base knocks. He is also sixth in the Majors in batting average at .332. Overall, he has a triple-slash line of .332/.373/.473 in 319 at-bats. According to Yahoo’s standard 5X5 ranking, he’s the fourth most valuable second baseman in the Majors right now.

The good news for Prado owners is that all his numbers point to this being a career trend – and not simply a career year or an extended hot streak. He hit more than .300 in both ’08 and ’09, and he’s posted wOBAs of .367 in ’08 and .355 in ’09. Prado’s ’10 wOBA is currently sitting at .367. The big difference this season is that he’s playing more regularly, which means better counting stats, which is great for fantasy managers.

We definitely do want to be cognizant of the fact that Prado has a .365 BABIP, which is on the high side – but not terribly unsustainable in the Austin Jackson realm. Prado’s BABIP was .357 and .331 during the previous two seasons.

Another issue with Prado is the fact that much of his value is tied up in his batting average and, to some degree, runs scored (although he doesn’t walk much – 6.3 BB%). His career high in steals is three (set in ’08) and his ’10 home run output is going to fall in the 12-15 range. He’s also not going to find himself in a run-producing spot in the lineup any time soon.

Second base in an area where you’re not going to generate a ton of value, unless you’re lucky enough to have Cano, Chase Utley or the recently injured Dustin Pedroia. If you currently own the Braves second baseman, don’t let anyone convince you to trade him with the thought that his first half success was a fluke.

If you’re someone who is looking to upgrade at second base and you’re eying Prado, the good news is that his excellent 2010 season has not generate a ton of attention just yet so you may be able to pry him away from a naive fantasy manager without having to sell your soul.

Seattle Mariners acquired 1B/DH Russell Branyan from the Cleveland Indians for OF Ezequiel Carrera and SS Juan Diaz. Cleveland will either pay what’s left of Branyan’s $2 million salary or send the M’s a PTBNL.

Branyan wasn’t acquired as part of some last-ditch effort to climb back into the AL West race — the Mariners are 14 games back of Texas and have a 0.2 percent chance of making the playoffs, according to CoolStandings.com. Rather, Seattle brought the 34-year-old slugger back, in GM Jack Zduriencik’s words, “to give our team every opportunity to be as productive as possible this season, while not harming the long-term plan for the franchise.” Collectively, Mariners first basemen have a major league-worst .260 wOBA in 2010.

Last year, Branyan turned in the best season of his career in the Pacific Northwest. Getting regular playing time, the lefty batter mashed to the tune of .251/.347/.520 in 505 plate appearances and compiled 2.8 WAR. His wOBA was .368, and his park-and-league-adjusted wOBA was 29 percent above average (129 wRC+). Unfortunately, a bulging disk in Branyan’s back ended his season in late August.

He signed a one-year deal with the Indians this past winter, with a $5 million mutual option for the 2011 season. Branyan began the year on the DL with continued back woes, but he has hit slightly above expectations since returning to the lineup in late April. He’s got a .263/.328/.491 line in 190 PA, with a .355 wOBA and a 122 wRC+ (CHONE and ZiPS both projected a .348 wOBA and a 113 wRC+ prior to the start of the season).

Now that Cleveland has said see you in another life, brotha to Branyan for a fourth time, first base is Matt LaPorta’s spot to lose. The seventh overall selection in the ’07 draft, LaPorta was supposed to be the Tribe’s big prize in the July 2008 CC Sabathia deal. However, LaPorta’s monstrous minor league line (.296/.390/.563, 10.7 BB%, .267 ISO) has given way to a disastrous .240/.301/.377 (.300 wOBA) showing in 300 big league PA over the 2009-2010 seasons. LaPorta was slowed by off-season surgeries on his left hip and left toe, but his power was MIA prior to an early June demotion to Columbus. His career ISO is .137.

It’s just 300 PA split over two years, so we shouldn’t let a half-season’s worth of trips to the plate serve as some definitive judgment of LaPorta’s abilities. Still, his rest-of-season ZiPS (.257/.329/.414, .331 wOBA) is thoroughly uninspiring. He’s in his mid-twenties and down the defensive spectrum. LaPorta will need to significantly outperform that projection to be a useful starter, much less a star.

In addition to giving an erstwhile top prospect a shot at redemption, shipping out Branyan netted the Indians Carrera and Diaz. Carrera, 23, was part of the December ’08 three-team extravaganza involving the Mets (his original club), M’s and Indians. The lithe lefty batter ranked as the 15th-best talent in the Mariners’ system prior to 2010, per Baseball America. The Venezuelan-born Carrera piqued the interest of prospect types last season by batting .337/.441/.416 in the Double-A Southern League. He didn’t show much power (.079 ISO), and his BABIP was .407. But even so, he worked the count very well (14.6 BB%) while earning praise for his center field defense.

Moved up to the Triple-A Pacific Coast League in 2010, Carrera has a .268/.339/.315 triple-slash in 243 PA. Perhaps with pitchers realizing that the worst outcome of giving Carrera a pitch in the zone is a seeing-eye single (.047 ISO), his walk rate has fallen to 8.2%. Odds are, Carrera carves out a career as an extra outfielder who can cover the gaps. His fantasy value might be zilch, though — while he swiped twenty-plus bags each season from 2006-2009, Carrera’s career SB success rate is just 68.9%.

Diaz, 21, is shortstop signed by the M’s out of the Dominican Republic in 2006. The 6-3, 180 pound switch-hitter has put together a .299/.347/.434 line at high-octane High Desert of the High-A California League over the past two years. He didn’t rate among Seattle’s top 30 prospects leading up to 2010.

Boston Red Sox acquired 2B/OF Eric Patterson from the Oakland Athletics for LHP Fabian Williamson.

Dustin Pedroia’s laser show is on hold for the time being — the second baseman fouled a Jonathan Sanchez fastball off his left foot in the third inning of Friday’s contest against the San Francisco Giants. Pedroia suffered a fracture, and while there’s no firm timetable for a return, early estimates have him missing up to six weeks.

Jed Lowrie (mononucleosis) is on the DL, as is Double-A shortstop prospect Jose Iglesias (bruised hand). Saber favorite Tug Hulett has sunk with the PawSox this season (.168/.293/.302 in 241 PA). Recently recalled Angel Sanchez rates well with the leather according to Total Zone, but he’s a career .279/.334/.351 minor league hitter. As such, the Sox could give Patterson a spin at second (along with Bill Hall) as Pedroia heals.

Patterson, 27, was originally a Cubs prospect taken out of Georgia Tech in the eighth round of the 2004 draft. In July of 2008, Patterson was shipped to Oakland (along with Josh Donaldson, Sean Gallagher and Matt Murton) for Rich Harden and Chad Gaudin. The lefty hitter holds a career .303/.368/.478 triple-slash in 2,570 career minor league plate appearances. Displaying decent pop (.175 Isolated Power) and adequate strike zone control (9.3 BB%, 19.3 K%), Patterson also stole bases with an 80.6% success rate.

In the majors, Patterson’s got a career .224/.301/.340 line in 378 PA, with a .300 wOBA. Corey’s little brother has walked 10.1% of the time, whiffed 28.4% and has a .116 ISO. He has nabbed bases at a 91.7% clip, with 22 SB in 24 tries. Out of minor league options, Patterson made Oakland’s roster out of spring training but was recently DFA’d to make room for Coco Crisp. ZiPS projects that Patterson will hit .248/.310/.399 for the rest of 2010, with a .320 wOBA. CHONE thinks he’ll bat .261/.322/.411.

Patterson figures to be a slightly below-average MLB hitter who can add some value on the bases. That’s not a bad fill-in for the Sox on such short notice, if he can cut it at second. Patterson, who has big league experience at the keystone and in the outfield, rated as above-average at second in the minors according the Total Zone. His scouting reports in years past were less flattering, however. In its 2008 Prospect Handbook, Baseball America lamented that “despite his athleticism, Patterson has never gotten the hang of playing second base. He doesn’t read balls well off the bat or range well to his right.”

Given his stolen base chops and non-terrible bat, Patterson’s worth a temporary pick-up in AL-only leagues.

Going to the A’s in exchange for Patterson is Williamson, a 21-year-old lefty who is joining his third organization. The 6-2, 175 pounder was acquired by Boston from the Seattle Mariners for David Aardsma prior to the 2009 season. Equipped with a quality curve/changeup combo but sitting in the high-80’s with his heater, Williamson didn’t crack the Sox’ top 30 prospect list this past winter.

Pitching in the Low-A South Atlantic League last season, he had 8.7 K/9, 4.4 BB/9, a 37.9 GB% and a park-and-luck-adjusted FIP of 4.37 in 108 innings. Williamson split ’09 between the rotation and the bullpen (16 ‘pen appearances, 12 starts), but he has been a full-time starter in the High-A Carolina League in 2010. On the positive side, his ground ball rate has climbed considerably (54.5 GB%). However, he’s also whiffing 5.5 and walking 4.7 in 65.1 innings, with a 5.05 park-and-luck-adjusted FIP.

Carlos Guillen, Tigers (Owned in 10% of Yahoo leagues)

Guillen endured an injury-plagued 2009 season, missing a huge chunk of time from early May to late July with a left shoulder ailment. His line — .242/.339/.419 in 322 PA, with a .328 wOBA — combined with increasing fragility and a gradual slide down the defensive spectrum led many owners to write off the switch-hitter as over the hill.

Apparently, someone forgot to tell Guillen that he’s toast. That ’09 triple-slash was misleading, as his strong secondary skills (12.1 BB%, .177 Isolated Power) were obscured by a .263 BABIP. Guillen’s expected BABIP was .322. Injury has slowed Guillen again this season (a left hamstring strain that DL’d him from late April to late May), but his BABIP has bounced back to .309, and he’s batting .283/.337/.461 in 166 PA.

The former Astros prospect and Mariner has been unusually aggressive at the dish, hacking at 34.3% of pitches thrown out of the strike zone (28.4% MLB average). That explains why he’s walking 7.8% of the time. But Guillen’s hitting with the same power as in ’09 (.178 ISO), and he has become a much more intriguing fantasy option with a move back up the defensive ladder — he’s manning the keystone spot for the Tigers. As a 34-year-old with a history of knee, hamstring, back and shoulder maladies, Guillen’s no sure thing. But a guy with a .278/.353/.459 rest-of-season ZiPS and position eligibility in the outfield and at second base is worth a roster spot.

Dallas Braden, Athletics (41%)

A 24th-round pick out of Texas Tech in the ’04 draft, Braden has achieved some level of fame by telling Alex Rodriguez to get off his mound and then twirling a perfect game against the Tampa Bay Rays on May 9th. He remains on the wire in most fantasy leagues, though, despite showing considerable improvement.

In 2009, Braden posted a 3.89 ERA in 136.2 innings before a nerve injury in his left foot ended his season in late July. His peripherals suggested he pitched more like a high-four’s ERA starter, however — with 5.33 K/9, 2.77 BB/9 and a very low ground ball rate (36.4 GB%), Braden had a 4.80 xFIP. While fewer fly balls become dingers at the Coliseum than most other parks (a HR/FB park factor of 92 from 2006-2009), Braden’s 4.7 HR/FB% looked primed to climb.

It has — Dallas is allowing homers on nine percent of fly balls hit against him. Yet his ERA is actually slightly lower, at 3.83. Unlike in 2009, Braden has done more to earn that mark. Tossing 94 frames so far, the 26-year-old lefty has struck out 5.55 batters per nine innings, walked just 1.53 per nine and has increased his ground ball rate to 42.4%. The result of Braden’s improved control and more neutral GB rate is a 4.06 xFIP. He’s never going to miss bats in the majors at anywhere near the insane clip that he did on the farm, but he’s more than an A-Rod agitator who had his 15 minutes of fame in May — Braden’s an above-average starter.

The Red Sox placed Dustin Pedroia on the disabled list with a fracture in his foot today, though the severity is unknown and there’s no timetable for his return. He suffered the injury last night when he fouled a ball off his right instep, though he managed to stay in for one more pitch (ball four) before limping off.

With a .382 wOBA and 12 homers in 73 games, Pedroia was one of the three best fantasy second baseman, so his absence is a major loss to more than just the Red Sox. Like I said when we looked at some fill-ins for Troy Tulowitzki, your best bet is too make sure that you don’t take a hit in the AVG and OBP departments, because there’s basically no way to replace the counting stats at this time of the season. Here’s three players that could lend a hand…

Kevin Frandsen | Angels | 4% owned

With infielders dropping like flies due to injuries and Brandon Wood still doing his best to claim the title of worst player in baseball, the Angels have turned to Frandsen this month, and he’s produced in a big way. He’s hitting .333/.371/.439 with seven doubles (all in his last ten games) in June, playing every day at the hot corner. (R) ZiPS projects a .281 AVG (.338 OBP) the rest of the way, mostly because his .373 BABIP will likely regress as the season goes on. Frandsen is eligible at 2B, 3B, and SS.

Orlando Hudson | Twins | 30%

Hudson is having a typical year for him, hitting in the .280’s (.281, to be exact) with an OBP in the .350’s (.352), though he’s scoring a boatload of runs (42) batting in front of Joe Mauer, Justin Morneau, and Co. (R) ZiPS projects more of the same going forward, and you know he’ll play every day as long as his wrist holds up.

Freddy Sanchez | Giants | 20%

Sanchez came off the disabled list in mid May, and he’s been doing his usual high AVG (.302), low power (.079 ISO) act since. (R) ZiPS predicts a .299 AVG going forward, and there’s no reason to expect anything more than that. As long as Sanchez’s knee doesn’t begin to act up, he’ll be in the lineup every day for San Francisco.

Replacement second baseman are a sorry lot, so make sure you keep your eyes open. If someone gets hot for a week, don’t hesitate to grab him and ride it out while Pedroia’s on the DL.

Maybe it’s just me, but I’m a sucker for flexibility. I love players with multi-position eligibility, so needless to say I’m always on the look-out for guys that might change positions. Catchers that move out from behind the plate are the classic example, and who can forget fantasy owners drooling at the possibility of Albert Pujols picking up 2B eligibility after this game in 2008? Alas, it was not meant to be.

With their third basemen putting up just a .271 wOBA this season, the Twins have started Michael Cuddyer at the hot corner fives times in the last week or so (six counting today). That’s good enough for him to pick up 3B eligibility in most leagues. He even started a game at 2B last month, but it doesn’t look like we’ll get that lucky. When the season began, he was eligible at 1B/OF, two spots with enough depth and generally low priority.

Cuddyer was mid-to-late round revelation last season, clubbing a career high 32 homers, driving in 94 runs, and scoring 93 more. He hasn’t been able to replicate that level of performance this year unsurprisingly, with just seven homers and 33 RBI in the team’s first 73 games. (R) ZiPS calls for a nice little second half: .271/.341/.462 with ten homers and 41 RBI, though it’s not really a standout performance from an outfielder or (especially) a first baseman. At third though, that’s a solid option.

Looking at the (R) ZiPS projections, I count 44 outfielders projected to hit double digit homers through the end of the season, 25 first baseman, and just 13 third baseman. Cuddyer makes 14. The third base position is surprisingly mediocre beyond the top level guys, so adding another player to that mix for the rest of the season is a boost. If you’re dealing with injury or ineffectiveness (Aramis Ramirez, Chone Figgins come to mind), or just plain old need some depth, Cuddyer’s a solid get now. If you already own him (77% owned in Yahoo! leagues), his value just went up.

As we get deeper and deeper into the season, we learn more and more about each player. This makes perfect sense, on two fronts. First, the more data we have on anyone (in any aspect of life), the better we can understand them and the more accurately we can predict behavior going forward. Secondly, we learn more and more about certain aspects (peripheral stats) of the player, which gives us an even better chance of predicting performance going forward.

For example, we know from Pizza Cutter’s work that a player’s HR/FB rate stabilizes at around 300 plate appearances. Most hitters have now hit that mark, or will very shortly. Once they hit the benchmark, we can feel much more confident when predicting home runs going forward. If you want to familiarize yourself with all of the intricacies of in-season hitting benchmarks, be sure to read Eric Seidman’s post on the subject, but below are the final results of the study:

50 PA: Swing %
100 PA: Contact Rate
150 PA: Strikeout Rate, Line Drive Rate, Pitches/PA
200 PA: Walk Rate, Groundball Rate, GB/FB
250 PA: Flyball Rate
300 PA: Home Run Rate, HR/FB
500 PA: OBP, SLG, OPS, 1B Rate, Popup Rate
550 PA: ISO

Pop quiz: What’s the biggest stat that you don’t see listed here? The answer is C) BABIP, and similarly, AVG. This means that throughout the length of one season, BABIP never really stabilizes and become reliable.

This is one of the biggest problems in fantasy leagues. When acquiring a player you believe has been unlucky thus far, you are still taking a shot in the dark. Guys have been known to have unlucky seasons, so he may not perform any better once you acquire him. Then again, he could perform much better, and you could get one hell of a steal. If I were to give advice to an owner trying to buy low on a player’s BABIP, I would always suggest doing so. If you want to increase your odds of finding a rebounding player, grab a few of them and hope that one of them works out. Of course, if you’re in a keeper league, you should buy low more often. Because, even if the player doesn’t rebound for the rest of the season, chances are he will be back to his normal self the next season, when we get to hit the “reset” button.

To put it simply, when buying low on BABIP, you just have to ask yourself one question: “Do I feel lucky?”

Well, do ya, punk?