If there is one thing that fantasy owners like, it is consistency. One of the most consistent players in recent seasons is Adam LaRoche, who just signed a free agent deal with the Diamondbacks. Now that we know where LaRoche will play this season, let’s look at what he is likely to produce. Here are his fantasy stats for the past three seasons:

2007: .272-21-88-71-1
2008: .270-25-85-66-1
2009: .277-25-83-78-2

Of course, fantasy owners know LaRoche for something else, too. He is one of the players who has consistently performed better in the second half of the season compared to the first half. LaRoche has been in the league for six seasons and in five of those he has posted a higher OPS after the All-Star break, including four years where the difference was over 200 points. Here are his lifetime splits by halves:

First Half: .252/.326/.447 in 1785 PA
Second H: .300/.363/.546 in 1445 PA

Over at The Book Blog, MGL and TangoTiger have done a bunch of work on splits, specifically on halves. MGL said, “Using the ‘same weight’ method, I got an ‘r’ of -.004 (again, 6427 player seasons).

Using the second method, weighting by PA, I got an ‘r’ of .001.

Sorry guys, I see no evidence of these splits having any meaning whatsoever. None.”

MGL went on to offer a $100 donation to charity if anyone could find a predictive value to splits (aside from a few with previously documented small predictive values). Nearly 15 months later, nobody has posted any research looking for a reward.

But, what works for the aggregate does not necessarily work for the individual, as we see here in the extreme case of LaRoche. The question becomes, should we weight LaRoche differently given his track record?

Perhaps more importantly, are fantasy owners valuing LaRoche correctly, given his overall performance the past three years? Currently, he has an ADP of 255, making him on average a pick early in the 22nd round.

If LaRoche can duplicate what he has done recently, he will be a steal at that pick. And now he gets to call Chase Field home. After spending most of his career in Atlanta, where Turner Field has a multi-year park factor of 98, LaRoche will play half of his games in a good hitter’s park. Baseball-Reference.com gives Chase Field a multi-year park factor of 109. In his brief playing time so far in Arizona, LaRoche has a .661 OPS in 43 PA.

Perhaps those at-bats came early in the season.

It’s easy to forget that Jeremy Bonderman is only 27-years-old. He was placed in Detroit’s rotation and made 28 starts as a 20-year-old during their horrific 43-win season in 2003. Bonderman was allowed to develop at the big league level and quickly became a young workhorse. He would make 151 starts for the team from 2003-2007 averaging 30 starts a season. His banner year would come in 2006 (3.29 FIP in 214 innings) and this led to a four-year extension that he signed in December 2006 worth $38 million that covered his last two arbitration years and bought out his first two eligible free agent seasons.

Bonderman has been a massive disappointment since he signed that extension and injuries have decimated his past two seasons. A scary blood clot in his throwing shoulder altered his mechanics and cut short his 2008 season after 12 sub-par starts. Bonderman slowly regained his velocity this season as he struggled to fully recover from the prior surgery on the blood clot. He made 15 appearances in the minors and eight at the big league level where was relegated to relief duty down the stretch. This is the last year of his contract and he has much to play for. Bonderman is slated to be the teams fourth starter in 2010.

Health is definitely the biggest concern with Bonderman but no set backs have been report thus far this off season. Tigers GM Dave Dombrowski was quoted in the USA Today about Bonderman and his health earlier this off season:

“He’s healthy. His velocity was fine at the end of the year. He just took a long time to bounce back from his surgery, but that’s healed now.”

Throwing strike one will be a big key for Bonderman in 2010. His first-strike percentage took a very noticeable dip in 2008 from his career norms. The blood clot seemed to hinder his pitch velocity and his velocity will be something to keep a very close eye on in spring training.

Prior to injury Bonderman was coming into his own and portraying good command along with healthy strike out rates. He’s always been a little homer prone save for his career year in 2006 but he was still producing good FIPs. He’s always had some higher BABIPs and left on base rates but these have become career norms for Bonderman. He has a career .317 BABIP and 67.7% LOB rate which are both below average. Bonderman just isn’t as good with runners on base and it’s not proper to adjust these stats.

With Bonderman appearing free to go in 2010 he has the potential to bring back big returns to fantasy owners. Detroit’s defense was very good in 2009 according to UZR and will be an asset for him and his ERA in 2010. He would be a nifty dollar starter or late round pick. He has big upside and had developed a very solid set of controllable peripherals prior to the blood clot.

Bill James’ 2010 projection (4.22 FIP in 185 innings) sounds very realistic to me. I think the 3.06 walk rate that James is projecting is too high and I’d expect that number to sneak into the 2.80’s based off his prior form. This would help lower his FIP and make for a rosier projection.

Remember that Bonderman is only 27-years-old and he still has many years ahead of himself. He’s a snoring sleeper pick and make sure that snore wakes you up. Bonderman could be paying big dividends for your fantasy team next summer.

Over the offseason we’ll take a look at each position on the diamond and see how the past season affected the positional rankings and where there might be some potential bounceback value picks going into next year’s drafts. (See shortstops, catchers, second basemen, first basemen, third basemen, right fielders, left fielders and center fielders.)

Of course, when it comes to pitchers, the format suffers. We’re certainly not about to do tiered rankings for the top 75+ pitchers that get drafted every year in mixed leagues – that would be one long post. Instead, I’m going to cover the pitchers by their location on your team. The first group consists of pitchers that could or should be selected to be fantasy aces in 2010. Let’s take a look.

This is where I drop some caveats. Everyone has their preferences, so order this tier as you will. The first tier is meant to be the no-doubt-about-it group. All of these guys won’t give you the strikeouts of Tim Lincecum and Zack Greinke, but they’ll come within a strikeout or two per nine innings. They won’t all have the miniscule WHIPs of Dan Haren or Roy Halladay, but none of them should break 1.2 in that category. They won’t all be the horse that CC Sabathia is, but they’ve all (so far) shown the ability to put close to 200 innings together. There are no guarantees when it comes to elbows and shoulders, but these guys look like bonafide studs.

The next group ain’t too shabby themselves. The first three only have question marks because they’re young and haven’t been doing this for ages. Despite my worries about Jon Lester’s walk rate in the minors, he hasn’t shown any problems since he made his cancer recovery. Felix Hernandez broke out last year, and just needs to show it again. Justin Verlander seems to have fixed his delivery, but will what broke before break again? The next two guys have question marks are about age and health. Chris Carpenter is a walking question mark, and his ongoing health issues make him overvalued after strong years and undervalued after injured years. In other words, I owned him often last year and may not own him once next year. Instead, I may own Johan Santana often this year, who should be next year’s Carpenter, despite his worrisome declining velocity and strikeout rates. Cliff Lee never had great strikeout rates to begin with and is going to the tougher league, but he may get some support for a higher ranking.

Originally, there was a tier between Lee and Adam Wainwright, but that tier was born more of intuition than anything in the numbers. Wainwright made just as big of a leap forward as King Felix in some ways, why should he be in another tier? Perhaps this imaginary tier has a combination of questions. Wainwright broke out – and has durability questions. Josh Johnson can probably repeat his performance, given his history, but he has definite durability questions. He’s put together just 364 innings total from 2007-2009. Josh Beckett is a favorite of mine, but for some reason he keeps putting up ERAs that are much higher than his FIPs, and maybe that’s just how he rolls. Ubaldo Jimenez induces mad ground balls and strikes out plenty, but his stats are still borderline. Aw, heck, put that tier back in.

The “just off” tier gives you a preview of some nice SP2 values that you could pair with a late SP1 for your best strategic approach. Consider that the number one pitcher on this list is projected by Bill James to put up an 2.80 ERA and 1.12 WHIP with 261 strikeouts, while the tenth guy may “only” contribute 3.08 ERA, 1.09 WHIP and 224 strikeouts. That, my friends, is why you wait to draft your starting pitchers.

Last offseason, we took an in-depth look at Johnny Cueto’s rookie season with the Cincinnati Reds. The Dominican-born right-hander, equipped with low-90’s gas and a sharp slider, ripped through the minor leagues. With Cincy, Cueto tossed 174 innings, with a promising 4.37 Expected Fielding Independent ERA (xFIP) in 2008. I concluded:

Johnny Cueto remains an extremely talented young pitcher. His 93 MPH fastball and mid-80’s power slider can be nearly impossible to hit at times, as evidenced by his minuscule 76.9 Contact% (9th-best in baseball, sandwiched between Cole Hamels and Johan Santana). However, he may want to utilize his changeup more often in 2009, as he threw his slider over 32% of the time (the 5th-highest rate in the big leagues) while using the change just 6.7%. When he threw it, Cueto’s change was a nasty looking pitch, with horizontal movement that was identical to his fastball and a whopping 7 inches of vertical drop compared to his heater.

Cueto has the tools necessary to establish himself as one of the best starters in the big leagues. However, fantasy owners might need to experience some of his growing pains first, as he learns to use his full repertoire and limit the long-ball damage.

One year later, it appears as though Cueto didn’t make a whole lot of improvements to his game. In 2008, he punched out 8.17 batters per nine innings, with 3.52 BB/9. This past year, the soon-to-be 24 year-old compiled a 4.57 xFIP in 171 frames, with 6.93 K/9 and 3.2 BB/9. His ERA dipped from 4.81 to 4.41, but that was largely due to a decrease in BABIP (.309 to .296) and home run per fly ball rate (13.9 percent to 11.2 percent).

Cueto was among the toughest starters to make contact with during his rookie year, but hitters put the bat on the ball 82.7% of the time in 2009 (80-81% MLB average). His percentage of contact within the strike zone increased from 85.4% to 88.1% (87-88% MLB average).

While Cueto’s walk rate did fall, he actually located fewer pitches within the zone (51.2% in ’08, 47.6% in ’09; the MLB average is 49-51%) and garnered fewer first-pitch strikes (59.4% in ’08, 56.5% in ’09; 58-59% MLB average).

His pitch selection essentially remained the same. Cueto tossed a fastball about 62 percent of the time, while supplementing the heater with mid-80’s sliders (30 percent) and occasional changeups (8 percent). As Trip Somers’ Pitch F/X Tool shows, the fastball and slider didn’t generate as many whiffs this past season:

2008

Fastball: 6.8 Whiff%
Slider: 15.8 Whiff%
Changeup: 11.9 Whiff%

2009

Fastball: 5.8 Whiff%
Slider: 9.7 Whiff%
Changeup: 14.1 Whiff%

Overall, Cueto’s swinging strike rate fell from an excellent 10.1 percent in 2008 to 7.5 percent (7.8 percent average for starting pitchers).

A look at Cueto’s Pitch F/X data shows that the slider didn’t show near as much horizontal break in 2009. In ’08, the pitch broke away from righty batters 2.6 inches more than a pitch thrown without spin. In ’09, it broke away from same-handed hitters just 0.8 inches (the average for RHP is between 2-2.5 inches).

One could make the argument that late-season injuries dragged down some of these totals. According to the Fantasy Pitch F/X DL Tool, Cueto dealt with a hip flexor injury in early August, then hit the DL with shoulder inflammation shortly thereafter. He also missed a late-season start with the flu. Here are Johnny’s month-by-month numbers:

He clearly struggled to locate his pitches in July and August.

Entering 2010, Cueto’s value is hard to gauge. Is he healthy? While his innings totals haven’t been abusive, Cueto has logged a significant workload in the majors at a young age. And, can he regain the bite on that once-plus slider, while honing his changeup? To this point, his fastball has been a slightly below-average offering (-0.3 runs per 100 pitches), with the slider also in the red at -0.09 runs/100. The neglected changeup checks in at an ugly -1.12.

Cueto is plenty talented and has time on his side. But in order to take the next step, he must show durability and develop those secondary offerings.

Pirates signed OF Ryan Church to a one-year, $1.5 million contract, with $1.32M in possible incentives.

Church, 31, seems to be ticketed for a fourth outfield role in Pittsburgh. The club is leaning toward starting Garrett Jones in right field, giving former Mariners prospect Jeff Clement a chance to establish himself at first base. Brandon Moss also figures into the outfield rotation, though his feeble hitting last year (74 wRC+) puts him at the back of the line.

A plus defender in an outfield corner, Church fell flat offensively during an injury-riddled 2009 season in which he was traded from the Mets to the Braves for Jeff Francoeur. Atlanta non-tendered Church earlier this winter.

During his career, the lefty batter has been a slightly above-average hitter, with a 110 wRC+ and a .272/.345/.441 triple slash. However, his last healthy season was 2007, when he posted a 116 wRC+ in 530 plate appearances. Church hit the DL twice in 2008 with post-concussion syndrome, scarcely playing during the second half.

In 2009, Church was hampered by a strained hamstring and back spasms. His wRC+ was just 93 in 399 PA, as his power went MIA:

That .250 ISO in 2006 (in 230 PA) was an anomaly, but Church’s pop has declined four years running. He had a .191 ISO in 2007, a .163 mark in 2008 and a tepid .111 figure in 2009.

The former Expo, National, Met and Brave made more contact than usual this past year, though of the weak variety (career average and MLB average in parentheses):

Z-Contact: 92.9% (87.1% career, 87-88% MLB average)
Contact%: 82.2% (75.7% career, 80-81% MLB average)

Typically a quality fastball hitter (+0.97 runs/100 pitches seen), Church had a -0.12 run value against heaters this past season. It seems as though the injuries made him more content to simply but the bat on the ball, as opposed to making hard, authoritative contact. During his career, Church has hit to the opposite field 15.8 percent, to the middle field 53.1 percent and has pulled 31.1 percent. In 2009, he hit 20.1 percent to the opposite field, 51.5 percent to the middle field and pulled 27.6 percent.

CHONE projects Church to hit .263/.332/.411 in 2010, which comes out to an even 100 wRC+. He’s a nice little addition for the Bucs as a decent-hitting, rangy player acquired on the cheap. But Church needs to remain upright and hope for Jones to turn into a pumpkin to hold any fantasy value.

Giants signed 1B Aubrey Huff to a one-year, $3M contract.

Huff’s signing likely sets off a chain reaction: Pablo Sandoval will remain at third base, with Mark DeRosa manning left field.

While it’s questionable if he actually constitutes an upgrade over San Francisco’s in-house options, Huff will play first base for the Giants. You’ll hear Huff called a four-corners player in some circles. However, a look at his UZR totals shows that his glove is a clunker at every spot. That helps explain why Huff only DH’d and played first in 2009.

The 33 year-old posted wRC+ totals of 111 in 2006 and 104 in 2007, before exploding for a 139 wRC+ in 2008. Huff’s power production spiked, before tailing off considerably in 2009:

Huff has hit fly balls 36-37 percent of the time during his career, while grounding out about 45 percent. In ’08, he had a 41.7% fly ball rate and a 40.9 GB%. His ISO shot up to a career-high .247.

Now, a 32 year-old turning in a career year would be expected to decline the following season. But Huff turned in his worst campaign since 2001, posting a 79 wRC+ between the Orioles and the Tigers. His ISO plunged to .144, as he hit fly balls 36.4 percent and grounded out 48.1 percent. That was the highest ground ball rate among first basemen. When you might lose a foot race to a Molina brother (2.3 Speed Score in 2009), chopping the ball into the dirt so often is career suicide.

While Huff should bounce back somewhat next season, his bat is rather bland for the first base position. CHONE forecasts a .263/.327/.438 line in 2010, with a 103 wRC+. Bill James throws out a slightly sunnier projection: .267/.334/.445 (107 wRC+). It doesn’t help Huff’s value that his new home ball park saps lefty slugging. According to the 2010 Bill James Handbook, AT&T Park decreased left-handed HR production 12 percent compared to a neutral park from 2007-2009. AT&T has played like a slight hitter’s park, however (103 park factor), as doubles and triples production is boosted.

Huff isn’t the sort of player you should target. The upside is average production for the position, while the downside is he’s done as a serviceable starter. There’s not much incentive in that proposition.

Kansas City Royals signed OF Scott Podsednik to a one-year, $1.75 million contract with an option for the 2011 season.

Score one for Dayton Moore in a game of one-upmanship (one-downmanship?) between the Royals GM and his N.L. doppelganger in Queens.

Thirty-four years old in March, Podsednik posted a combined 76 wRC+ between 2006 and 2008, missing significant time in both ’07 (groin, rib cage) and ’08 (fractured lefty pinky finger). Back with the White Sox in 2009 after a one-year stint with the Rockies, Podsednik stayed healthy and hit .304/.353/.412 with a 103 wRC+ in 587 plate appearances. The lefty batter swiped 30 bases to boot.

Sounds good, right? Well, there are several drawbacks. Scotty Pods’ line was fueled by a .342 BABIP, well north of his .324 expected batting average on balls in play (xBABIP) and his career .321 BABIP. If you take some air out of that batting average, Podsednik’s line loses its luster. CHONE projects him to bat .271/.333/.367 with an 89 wRC+ in 2010. ZiPS throws out a .279/.336/.384 triple-slash, and the fans are even more pessimistic (.270/.323/.345, 83 wRC+).

Also, those 30 steals don’t sound quite as impressive when you consider that Podsednik was caught red-handed 13 times. With a 70 percent success rate, Podsednik actually cost the White Sox a couple of runs. According to Baseball Prospectus’ Equivalent Stolen Base Runs metric, Podsednik’s stealing was worth -2.09 runs in 2009. He rated positively in 2008 (+0.93), but he was in the negatives in 2007 (-0.21) and 2006 (-1.9) as well. Those CS still matter in fantasy, as he’s costing you possible runs scored.

Overall, I’m just left wondering, “what’s the point?” The cash isn’t exorbitant and the in-house alternatives aren’t breath-taking, but Podsednik is not a clear upgrade on, say, Mitch Maier (projected by CHONE for .262/.326/.368 line and an 87 wRC+).

Why spend an additional two million bucks and not reap any reward from the expenditure? It’s like driving a Ford Pinto to a car dealership and then buying an AMC Pacer with the same features but a higher payment. You’re still going to get left in the dust. Now, it’s just going to cost more.

Texas Rangers signed INF Khalil Greene to a one-year, $750,000 contract.

From 2004 to 2007, Greene’s low on-base, high-slugging offensive profile made him a slightly above-average hitter. His wRC+ over that time period was 105. However, Greene’s production plummeted in 2008 (66 wRC+), as his power output dipped and his strikeout rate spiked. San Diego’s 2002 first-rounder broke his left hand in late July of ’08 after punching a wall, missing the rest of the season. The Padres traded him to the Cardinals for relievers Luke Gregerson and Mark Worrell that December.

Greene played sparsely for St. Louis, serving multiple DL stints while getting treatment for social anxiety disorder. In 193 PA, his wRC+ was 65. With Texas, the 30 year-old will serve as a utility man: Greene clearly won’t challenge Elvis Andrus or Ian Kinsler for up-the-middle playing time, and Michael Young is locked in at third base. It’s surprising that Greene chose a team that presents him with little opportunity for moving into a significant role. His fantasy value is basically zilch.

When you’re playing a deep league, most of the time any player that will start in 2010 is draftable and interesting. In my 20-team keeper league, we have Corner Infield spots on our rosters, meaning that we need to play 60 players at first base and third base combined. No need to remind you that there are thirty teams in the league, I’m sure. Warm, starting bodies perk interest in these leagues.

So we come to the Cardinals, who have unloaded their coffers to protect Albert Pujols in the lineup with their shiny new toy, Matt Holliday. According to Cot’s Contracts, the Cards now have $81 million locked up in current contracts, and some significant players entering arbitration (Skip Schumaker, Kyle McClellan, and Ryan Ludwick most prominently). Factoring in all the young players that typically round out a roster, plus these arbitration upgrades, the Cards have already cleared $90 million in contracts this year, and could be looking at close to $95 million in payroll once the dust clears. Since 2005, the team has averaged $91.9 million per year in payroll. It certainly looks like some young men will get a shot to fill in the remaining holes on this roster.

All of this is preamble for GM John Mozeliak stating on Saturday that David Freese is the number one candidate for their third base opening, and (by implication) Miguel Tejada is probably not on his way into town. What can we expect from the 26-year-old, who is also trying to deal with a DWI charge that was handed down this offseason?

First, the positive. Freese hit .300 at every level last year, culminating in a 300/.369/.525 effort in AAA. As Marc Hulet pointed out in his piece on the Red Birds’ prospects, he was aided by some high BABIPs (.355 was his lowest BABIP since 2008). Another positive is that it seems Freese can do better than his 6% walk rate from last year, as his 2008 and 2009 rates were all higher. He can approach 10% and provide some value with the free passes. Lastly, Freese has posted ISOs over .200 in all but one of his minor league spots. He has real pop.

The bad news is that his strikeout rates could actually get worse next year. Freese debuted with a reasonable number last year (22.6%) but he showed rates in the minors that were in the high 20s. Those sort of strikeout rates aren’t normally associated with strong batting averages. Lo and behold, CHONE has Freese striking out more next year (25.2%), enjoying a more normal BABIP (.391 in 2009, projected for .329 in 2010) and posting a lower batting average (.269) as a result.

But CHONE didn’t account for the young man taking over the job and keeping it all year. The system has him projected for 388 plate appearances, and if he plays all year he will surely clear 600. Pro-rate the power out and you’re looking at a brand-spanking new .269/.335/.442 third baseman with 19 home runs and 82 RBI. I think both the Cardinals and deep league fantasy managers would be very happy with those numbers, especially considering their cost.

The Houston Astros have reportedly signed free agent RHP Brett Myers to a one-year, $5 million deal with an option for the 2011 season.

Myers, 29, missed a large portion of the 2009 season following right hip surgery to repair a torn labrum in late May. He returned to the majors in early September as a reliever. However, a right shoulder strain shelved him for a few more weeks late in the year.

Philly’s first-round pick in the 1999 amateur draft, Myers was a mainstay in the starting rotation from mid-2002 through 2006. Despite turning in a 3.4 WAR season in 2005 and a 3.5 WAR campaign in 2006, the Phillies shifted Myers to the bullpen in 2007. He moved back to the starting five in 2008, and opened 2009 as a starter prior to the hip injury.

Myers has a wide gap between his career ERA (4.40) and his career Expected Fielding Independent ERA (3.90). Over the past three seasons, the dichotomy is even greater: a 4.56 ERA, and a 3.79 xFIP.

In the majors, Myers has struck out 7.5 batters per nine frames and walked 3.14 per nine innings. The wild divergence between his actual ERA and his xFIP can be explained by Brett’s homer-happy ways: he has surrendered 1.35 round-trippers per nine innings, despite generating more ground balls than the average pitcher (his GB% is 47.3). In general, home run per fly ball rates tend to stick around 10 to 12 percent. However, Myers’ HR/FB rate in nearly 1,200 innings is 15.5 percent.

Making 10 starts and eight relief appearances in 2009, Myers posted rates of 6.37 K/9 and 2.93 BB/9. He served up a jaw-dropping 18 dingers in just 70.2 innings pitched (2.29 HR/9). Again, his ERA (4.84) and xFIP (4.32) were far apart, as his HR/fly ball rate was stratospheric 23.4 percent.

In recent years, Myers has relied on his fastball less often. He chucked the pitch between 56 and 63 percent of the time between 2002 to 2005, but has since gone to his heater less than 50 percent. His fastball has been battered for a -0.77 run value per 100 pitches in the majors.

That fastball is pretty straight, tailing in on righty batters just four inches compared to a pitch thrown without spin (six inch MLB average for right-handed pitchers). As Trip Somers’ Pitch F/X Tool shows, that true fastball hasn’t garnered many swings and misses over the past two seasons. Myers’ whiff rate with his fastball since 2008 is four percent, while the MLB average is about six percent.

Myers’ bread and butter is his breaking stuff: an average mid-80’s slider (+0.03 runs/100) and a plus high-70’s curveball (+1.48) that drops off the table. A seldom-used changeup (-0.78) hasn’t been very effective.

Though we’re dealing with a small sample, Myers was more hittable in 2009 than in years past. His overall contact rate was 84.4 percent, compared to a career 80.3 percent average (the MLB average is 80-81 percent). His swinging strike rate was 6.5 percent, well below his career norm.

Moving from Citizens Bank Park to Minute Maid, Myers goes from a venue that increased home run production by 14 percent compared to a neutral park from 2007-2009 to one that inflated homers by eight percent over the past three seasons. Overall, CPB has boosted run scoring by three percent, while Minute Maid has decreased runs by four percent.

CHONE projects Myers to post a 4.79 ERA in 2010, with 7.57 K/9, 3.07 BB/9, and 1.5 HR/9 in 126 innings pitched. He’s worth a late-round flyer, but his uncertain health status and gopher-ball problems make Myers hard to recommend strongly.

Myers’ addition likely means that Bud Norris, Felipe Paulino and Brian Moehler will compete for two rotation spots.

Norris’ control has never been a strong suit, but his low-to-mid-90’s gas and hard slider have missed plenty of lumber. Twenty-five in March, Norris had a 4.38 xFIP, 8.73 K/9 and 4.04 BB/9 in 55.2 IP for the Astros last season.

Paulino’s ’09 results look horrifying (6.27 ERA), but as Carson Cistulli points out, Felipe’s peripherals were far more promising. He punched out 8.57 per nine innings and walked 3.41, also showcasing a mid-90’s fastball and a hard breaking ball. But a .368 BABIP and a 16.9 HR/FB% made him look like a punching bag. The 26 year-old’s xFIP in 97.2 frames was 4.10.

Moehler pitched better than his 5.47 ERA would indicate (4.67 xFIP), but fantasy types should be rooting for Norris and Paulino to win those last two spots.

Charlie Morton never lit up prospect lists nor was he once deemed an impact player in the Atlanta Braves minor league system. Last year he found himself traded away to the Pirates in the Nate McLouth deal and he made 18 starts in Pittsburgh. These 18 starts were encouraging and Morton figures to slot into the back end of the Pirates starting rotation this year. He will be 26-years-old this season and now it’s time for Morton to run with a consistent starting opportunity at the big league level.

It appears that Morton is ready for this opportunity. He steadily climbed through the Braves system and since 2008 he has mightily improved his once very shaky control. Morton overcame plaguing walk rates that consistently sat in the mid fours and a few seasons where he split or spent more time in the bull pen than in a starting role. He’s also displayed a good knack for keeping the ball on the ground. Morton’s sinking fastball has induced good ground ball rates (58% and a silly 63% in AAA during 08 and 09) in the upper minors and big leagues.

Morton’s recently harnessed his command in Triple-A where he posted a 3.28 BB/9 rate in 2008 and a 2.23 BB/9 in 2009. He’s also shown a strong tendency of preventing the home run. In 2008 he didn’t surrender a single home run in 79 Triple-A innings. His average home run rate per nine over eight minor league seasons in 0.5 and save for a brutal 2006 season (1.26 HR/9) he has never had a HR/9 rate above 0.5 in the minor leagues. Morton’s ground ball and home run prevention tendencies are quite appealing.

In 2008 Morton made his major league debut in Atlanta and it didn’t go so well. He was afforded 16 appearances (15 starts) and he was tarred and feathered for a 5.14 FIP in 75 innings. His improved control disappeared (4.94 BB/9) and for the first time in a long time he surrendered more home runs than usual (1.08 HR/9). His .304 BABIP was not out of line but his 60.7 LOB% figured to improve.

Morton was dispatched back to Triple-A to start 2009 and he made the most of the opportunity in 10 starts before the trade. He had a 2.94 FIP and he turned in his best walk rate (2.23). Then came the trade to Pittsburgh and this time around Morton prevented the home run in the majors like he had in the minors (0.65 HR/9) and exhibited passable control (3.71 BB/9) with a 5.75 strikeout per nine that could use more improvement. His BABIP and LOB% looked very normal in Pittsburgh. He had a 4.15 FIP and 4.55 ERA. But that ERA would stand at 3.66 if you subtract his abysmal one inning start in Chicago on August 14 where he surrendered ten earned runs.

Morton’s strong ground ball rates have translated to the big leagues as well. During his rough go round in Atlanta he still had a 50% ground ball rate and last year in Pittsburgh it sat at 49%. It appears that he’s got the ability to have an above-average ground ball rate and possesses an average to slightly above-average ceiling on controlling his pitches within the strike zone in the big leagues.

The sinking fastball Morton utilized in 2009 has strikingly similar movement and velocity to the fastball that fellow sinkerballer Mike Pelfrey used in 2009. Pelfrey’s ground ball rate was 51% last year and is 50% over his big league career and the similiar movement and velocity on their pitches is no coincidence. Their sinkers stay on the ground.

The Pirates had a solid defense in 2009 that helped their pitchers out. Their team UZR checked in at 30.1 but there was a lot of turnover on the field last year. Pitchers will miss the slick fielding Jack Wilson up the middle but Ronny Cedeno appears close to an average defender at shortstop (according to UZR but The Fans Scouting Report thinks he’s better) and Akinori Iwamura is slightly above average at second base. Pirates pitchers better be hoping last years nasty injury has no effect on his defense. Andy Laroche is a defensive asset at the hot corner and Andrew McCutchen will be a solid defender in center field this year with an improved Lastings Milledge in left. There are definitely some capable gloves that will be helping out Morton and Pirates pitchers in 2010.

The downsides with Morton are his lackluster strikeout rate and the troubles he has had with left handed batters at the big league level. Morton will be no top of the rotation starter by any means but his true strikeout skill may lie between the 5.75 K/9 in the majors and 7.65 and 8.20 K/9 rates he had in Triple-A over the past two seasons. Morton has been dinged for not having a big out pitch. Baseball America did rate his curveball as the best in the Braves system in 2005 and last year in Pittsburgh it had a nifty pitch value at 4.1 runs above average. This is an encouraging sign.

Morton’s platoon split thus far at the big league level is a concern. Last year lefties had a .923 OPS against him in the big leagues and a .939 OPS versus him in 2008 with Atlanta. Things check out nicely against right handers.

After sifting through Morton’s splits in the minor leagues (dating back to 2005) there was nothing alarming about his performances against lefties. His absence of a third pitch may be a big factor with his struggles against lefties at the big league level but it’s possible the numbers may even out as the sample (321 MLB at-bats) increases over time.

Morton’s sinking fastball, low home run rate, and improved control make for an intriguing package. He held his own in the big leagues last year and there’s reason for optimism in 2010 especially behind a solid defense. He’s been overlooked and if his numbers improve against lefties his value can only shoot up.

See how he fares at the start of the season and if you’re in need of a starting pitcher Morton could be your guy especially during a hot streak. He’ll likely be available in all formats and could become a helpful starter on your team that seemingly came out of nowhere.