Archive for January, 2010

Francisco Liriano’s Future

Back in 2006, Francisco Liriano pitched like a cyborg sent from the year 2029 to annihilate all American League Central competition.

The Twins southpaw, just 22 at the time, snapped off mid-90’s gas, wicked high-80’s sliders and tumbling mid-80’s changeups. Liriano began the season in relief, but transitioned to the rotation in mid May. No matter his role, Liriano’s command to batters was clear: “your bats…give them to me now.”

In 121 innings pitched, the former Giants farmhand posted an xFIP (2.35) that could only be seen with Terminator Vision. Liriano struck out 10.71 batters per nine innings, while issuing just 2.38 BB/9. He also burned worms with a 55.3 GB%. Ample whiffs, few walks and groundball tendencies-that’s the holy trinity of pitcher skills.

While laying waste to opposing batters, Liriano tossed an incredible number of sliders. He unleashed that upper-80’s breaker nearly 38 percent, the highest rate in the majors among starters with 120+ IP. The 6-2 southpaw threw his 94-95 MPH fastball only 43 percent of the time, the fifth-lowest rate among pitchers. Liriano also threw his changeup often (19 percent).

His heater was decent (+0.13 runs per 100 pitches), but the slider (+3.47) and changeup (+2.82) were otherworldly. Liriano had the lowest contact percentage in the game (65.4), and he pounded the strike zone. Francisco placed 54.8% of his pitches over the plate, compared to the 52.6% average that season. Simply put, he was untouchable. Twins fans had visions of Liriano and Johan Santana leading the club to perennial postseason glory.

But Minnesota’s terminator malfunctioned. Liriano was scratched from an early August start with elbow soreness. He took the mound against the Tigers on August 7th, but was pulled after just four innings. The Twins placed him on the DL for forearm soreness soon after, hoping that rest and rehab would cure what ailed the phenom. Liriano returned to face the A’s on September 13th, but he lasted only two frames. Tommy John surgery soon followed.

Liriano missed the entire 2007 season, then logged a hefty workload upon returning in 2008. Liriano was called up from Triple-A Rochester in mid-April to fill in for Kevin Slowey, but he was sent back to the International League after a few poor starts and wouldn’t be recalled until August. In 118 innings with Rochester, Liriano posted a 3.03 FIP with rates of 8.62 K/9 and 2.36 BB/9.

While he didn’t terrify hitters like in the halcyon days of ’06, post-TJ Liriano was still plenty nasty. He had a 4.31 xFIP in 76 frames, whiffing 7.93 hitters per nine innings and walking 3.79 per nine. Post-surgery, Liriano didn’t get hitters to chop the ball into the ground as much (41.6 GB%).

Liriano increased his fastball usage to 54 percent, tossing sliders 26 percent and changeups 20 percent. His heater lacked the same zip, sitting at slightly under 91 MPH, and that upper-80’s slider turned in to a low-80’s offering (83-84 MPH). The slider remained deadly (+2.18 runs/100 pitches), and his changeup also rated decently (+0.03). But Liriano’s fastball lagged, at -0.54 per 100 tosses.

Not surprisingly for a post-TJ pitcher, Liriano had some issues with his control. His zone percentage dropped to 47.1, compared to the 51.1 percent MLB average, and his first-strike percentage was just 48.9 (58-59% MLB average). Even so, he was difficult to square up: Liriano’s contact rate was 75.5% (80-81% MLB average), and his swinging strike rate was 10.5 percent (7.8% average for starters).

Last offseason, I predicted a big 2009 season for Liriano:

The pitcher who burst onto the scene in 2006 might never return, but the current version of Francisco Liriano is extremely talented in his own right. If his control takes a step forward, as is the case with many TJ pitchers in their second year back, look out. Sill just 25 and possessing a full arsenal of pitches, Liriano should re-establish himself as one of the better starting pitchers in the AL in 2009.

Instead, he was battered for a 5.80 ERA in 136.2 IP. Liriano missed a couple starts with swelling in his left forearm in late July and early August, then was placed on the DL with left elbow fatigue in mid-August. Upon returning in September, Liriano made just one start while otherwise pitching out of the ‘pen.

The continued health problems are disconcerting. However, Liriano wasn’t the total punching bag that his ERA would suggest.

Liriano punched out 8.03 batters per nine innings, with 4.28 BB/9 and a 40.2 GB%. His BABIP was inflated at .324, and his home run per fly ball rate (12.5%) was a little higher than usual. Liriano’s rate of stranding runners on base (66.3 percent) was also below his career 70.7% average. While he was no ace, he posted a less gruesome 4.55 xFIP.

Control remained elusive: he put just 45 percent of his pitches within the strike zone, third-lowest among starters with 130+ IP. Liriano got ahead of hitters 0-and-1 or induced first-pitch contact only 55.4 percent of the time. Despite those negative indicators, his contact rate (74 percent) was fourth-lowest among starters, and his swinging strike rate climbed to 11.6 percent.

Keep in mind that Liriano’s pitch run values are deflated somewhat due to the discord between his results and his peripherals. But even so, the difference between his fastball and secondary stuff was marked. The slider gained a few ticks on the radar gun (86 MPH) and rated at +1.38 per 100 pitches. Liriano’s changeup was a quality pitch as well (+0.91).

His fastball crept up to 91-92 MPH, but it was slaughtered for a -1.99 runs/100 value. Only Detroit’s Armando Galarraga fared worse on a per-pitch basis. As Dave Allen illustrated, Lirano’s heater gets very few swings outside of the zone, few whiffs and few groundballs.

Pitching in the Dominican Winter League, Liriano has reportedly had no injury problems and has sat 92-94 MPH with his gas.

Entering 2010, Liriano is a fantasy conundrum. He’s still just 26, possesses a sinister slider and pulls the string on a plus changeup. Even if he were to make no substantial progress, Liriano would likely be a league-average starter next season with better luck.

But in order to become more than merely average, Liriano is going to have to make strides with his heater. He does an exceptional job of throwing his slider and change for strikes, but the fastball often misses the mark. That leads to hitter’s counts, as evidenced by Liriano’s lagging first-pitch strike percentage.

Scott Baker, Kevin Slowey, Nick Blackburn and Carl Pavano are locked into the rotation. Liriano will likely have to contend with Brian Duensing for that last opening. CHONE prefers Liriano (4.36 FIP, compared to 4.77 for Duensing).

Don’t forget Liriano. Exasperating as he is, he figures to post an ERA in the low-to-mid four’s in 2010. He’ll be back. That fastball needs an upgrade, however, if he hopes to terminate opposing batters.


Ankiel Inks with K.C.

Kansas City Royals signed free agent OF Rick Ankiel to a one-year, $3.25 million contract with a $6 million mutual option for the 2011 season.

Ankiel has manned all three outfield spots during his second life as a position player, posting a -9.4 UZR/150 in 1,300+ innings in center field and a +6.7 UZR/150 in 600+ frames in the corners.

The lefty batter transitioned to the batter’s box in 2005, batting .259/.339/.514 in 369 plate appearances split between the Low-A Midwest League and the Double-A Texas League. Unfortunately, he missed the entire 2006 season following surgery to repair a torn patellar tendon in his left knee (injury info from the Fantasy Pitch F/X DL Tool).

Ankiel resurfaced at Triple-A Memphis in 2007, batting .267/.314/.568 in 423 plate appearances. He didn’t show much restraint at the dish, drawing a walk just 5.9 percent of the time, but Rick’s Isolated Power was a robust .301. He earned a big league call-up in August, hitting .285/.328/.535 with a 124 wRC+ in 190 plate appearances. Ankiel popped 11 home runs, with a .250 ISO.

Getting regular playing time in 2008, Ankiel again had a 124 wRC+, with a .264/.337/.506 triple-slash in 463 PA. He was a free swinger (30.4 outside-swing percentage, compared to the 25% MLB average). But Ankiel still managed to draw a free pass 9.1 percent, as opposing pitchers threw just 45.4% of their offerings over the plate (49-51% MLB average). His ISO was .242.

While he was never placed on the DL, Ankiel battled shoulder, knee and groin injuries, and he was shut down in early September when he underwent sports hernia surgery (rosters expand in September, hence no DL stint).

This past year, Ankiel was often dinged up. He crumpled to the ground and had to be carted off the field after a collision with the center field wall on May 4. Ankiel went on the DL with a shoulder injury after the incident, and also dealt with an Achilles tendinitis and a groin strain.

When he did take the field, Ankiel didn’t pack the same punch offensively. In 404 PA, he had a .231/.285/.387 line, with a paltry 75 wRC+. Rick’s ISO dipped to .156, and he expanded his strike zone even further. Ankiel offered at 34.4 percent of pitches tossed out of the zone. Consequently, his walk rate declined to 6.4 percent.

Over the last three years, Ankiel has been five percent better than average with the bat (105 wRC+). Here are his projections for the 2010 season:

CHONE: .242/.298/.436, 93 wRC+
Bill James: .253/.310/.453, 100 wRC+
The Fans: .257/.316/.448, 101 wRC+

Personally, I would take the over on these forecasts, expecting something closer to his averages since 2007. Ankiel played last season at less than optimal health, something that the projection systems don’t take into account: they just know he played poorly. Of course, he could suffer through another injury-plagued campaign in K.C. His track record in that regard isn’t exactly pristine.

Ankiel is a good candidate to bounce back next season, assuming health. His aggressive, high-slugging ways are worth a flyer in A.L. only leagues.


ADP Values at Catcher

Once again a fantasy freak is allowed out into the light, and, well, I feel the pressure to be… fantastic. But how better to represent what we’ve been doing on RotoGraphs than to continue a series that gets right at the heart of what FanGraphs’ beautiful numbers can do for you in fantasy? That’s right, we’re checking out players from our tiered ranking series that are likely to outperform their Average Draft Position (ADP) as determined by MockDraftCentral.com.

It’s a mouthful, but remember, in the words of the immortal Black Sheep, “You can get with this, or you can get with that, I think you’ll get with this, for this is where it’s at.” It’s all about choosing the right player at the right spot.

For example, Victor Martinez is a fine young man. He’ll probably hit twenty home runs and have a nice batting average. His runs and RBI should be elite for a catcher, given the lineup surrounding him and his home ballpark. His ADP (24.19) reflects all of these things by placing him at the end of the second round. You could get with this.

On the other hand, there’s Brian McCann, who is also a fine young catcher. The fans have him hitting a couple more home runs, though, probably because his ISO has been much steadier and more impressive (.183, .222, .205 since 2007) than Martinez has shown (.205, .086, .177 over the same time period). Of course, picking McCann may come with a little more risk in the batting average department. There is the matter of his .270 batting average in 2007 in some minds. But McCann had a sub-.300 BABIP that year for the only time in his career, despite also owning a .307 xBABIP that year. It looks like he’s at least a reasonably solid bet to give similar value to Martinez… and he’s going as much as two rounds later according to his ADP (42.37). Among the top-tiered catchers, this is where it’s at (for value).

Once the top three catchers go, the ADPs plunge into the 100s, and for good reason. Because of the way the average catcher is used, the top 12 catchers by at-bats averaged 490 at-bats compared to 586 average at-bats for the top 12 first basemen last year. That’s 16.4% fewer at-bats. So before you use any pick on a catcher, remember that he’s going to get 15% fewer chances than the average position player – and also that his poor batting average will be 15% less hurtful than a bad batting average on a player at a different position.

In the next tier, Miguel Montero and his emerging game make for a good value given his draft position (149.78). He’s shown a .173+ ISO three seasons running, and seems to have finally reigned in the strikeouts to a reasonable level (18.6% last year). He’s also twelve years younger than the more expensive Jorge Posada (116.53 ADP). Catcher-years can catch up to a catcher in his late thirties. (Catch that?)

I could certainly get with Kurt Suzuki (131.37 ADP), but Russell Martin is cheaper (137.89) and more likely to offer a handful of extra steals. In the end, I’m probably just going to bypass the lot of them and go for end-game sleepers like the always-solid never-exciting AJ Pierzynski (246.68). As commenter Bas noted on our Check the Position: Catcher piece, AJ and Suzuki have similar high-contact, low-walk-rate, medium-power approaches – why you would pay almost ten rounds more for Suzuki? Certainly not for those five steals.

Finally, a word for a deep league ADP value guy. John Baker was first made famous for his inclusion in Billy Beane’s wishlists in Money Ball, and won’t hurt you with his low ADP (318.62). Jesus Flores, on the other hand, has an ISO that’s going in the right direction and is even cheaper (332.92). Provided Flores is healthy, both are fine late-round additions in deep leagues.


Pirates Sign Dotel, Snag B. Jones Off Waivers

Pittsburgh Pirates signed RHP Octavio Dotel to a one-year deal with an option for the 2011 season.

The deal is pending a physical, and financial terms aren’t yet known. Pittsburgh Post-Gazette writer Dejan Kovacevic reports that Dotel is expected to earn about $3 million in 2010, however.

The 36 year-old righty will take over ninth inning duties from Matt Capps, who was non-tendered in December and inked a $3.5 million deal with the Nationals in early January.

Dotel missed the majority of the 2005 and 2006 seasons following Tommy John surgery, then posted a 3.73 xFIP in 30.2 IP between the Royals and Braves in 2007 while serving DL stints for a strained oblique and a right shoulder strain.

Since then, the former Met, Astro, Athletic, Yankee, Royal, Brave and White Sock has turned in back-to-back healthy, productive campaigns. Over the past two years, Dotel has punched out 11.62 batters per nine innings, second-best among relievers (Jonathan Broxton takes top honors). His control wavers (4.52 BB/9) and he’s an extreme fly ball pitcher (34 GB%), but Dotel compiled a 3.72 xFIP with the South Siders in 2008 and 2009.

Pittsburgh’s new stopper flings his fastball over 80 percent of the time, supplementing the pitch with a low-80’s slider. Dotel’s Pitch F/X page suggests that he picked up the Cooper Cutter: there is a pronounced difference in vertical and horizontal movement between his four-seam fastball and cutter.

As Dave Allen showed, Dotel attacks hitters high in the zone with his heater, despite relatively modest velocity (he once sat in the mid-90’s, but now pops the gun at 92-93 MPH).

That up-the-ladder approach helps explain Dotel’s big whiff rates and fly ball tendencies: pitches high in the zone garner more swings and misses and fly balls, while pitches lower in the zone produce more contact and grounders. Dotel’s fastball(s) have a +0.40 run value per 100 pitches since 2008, while his slider checks in at +0.13. Octavio has the 12th-lowest contact rate among ‘pen arms over that time frame, at 71.9 percent.

Dotel’s new digs should help him, considering how often batters loft the ball against him when they manage to make contact. Per the 2010 Bill James Handbook, PNC Park suppressed home run production by 12 percent compared to a neutral park from 2007-2009. Compare that to his old home, U.S. Cellular Field. The Cell boosted taters by 25 percent compared to a neutral stadium over that same time period. CHONE projects a 3.72 FIP for Dotel next season, with 10.7 K/9 and 4.25 BB/9.

Pittsburgh Pirates claimed OF Brandon Jones off waivers from the Atlanta Braves.

Jones’ stay with the Bucs could be transient: the club apparently claimed the Braves farmhand off waivers with the intention of flipping him to another organization.

The 26 year-old lefty batter got cups of coffee with Atlanta in each of the past three seasons, posting an 81 wRC+ in 166 plate appearances. In 1,000+ PA at the Triple-A Level, Jones has a .277/.354/.420 triple-slash, walking in 11 percent of his trips to the plate and whiffing 18.3 percent.

While Baseball America rated him as the fourth-best prospect in the Braves’ system prior to the 2007 and 2008 seasons, Jones looks headed for a career as a handy fourth outfielder. He plays a nifty corner outfield according to TotalZone, and CHONE forecasts a .267/.342/.425 line in 2010.


Johan Santana vs Cliff Lee

I’m going to be perfectly honest: I typically stay away from Johan Santana. I’ve only drafted Johan once in my life, and then I flipped him for Brandon Webb and Michael Young, and dominated my league. Another disclaimer – I’m a Mariners fan, so I’m in love with Cliff Lee at this point, as I’m sure many Phillies fans were last season.

This year, Johan and Lee have some extra intrigue surrounding each of them, and are being drafted relatively close to each other. Johan is coming off September elbow surgery, and Lee is in a new (old) league again with a new squad. Johan is currently the seventh pitcher off the board (41), with Lee being the ninth pitcher being drafted (51). But should Lee be going before Santana?

Johan has posted two nice seasons since going to New York. In 2008 he pitched a career high 234.1 innings, won 16 games and had an ERA of 2.53. I would call that a more than superb fantasy season, but a 1.15 WHIP and 7.91 K/9 dropped him down a bit. Last season, before his injury woes, Santana pitched 166.2 innings, won 13 games and had an ERA of 3.13. Once again, however, a 7.88 K/9 and 1.21 WHIP made that season less valuable. I find it strange that no one is talking about Johan’s drop in strikeout rate since he entered the NL. From 2002-2007, he never struck out less than a batter an inning, and now he is doing so consistently. CHONE projects his strikeout rate to be at 8.11, with fan and Marcel projects hovering around the same mark. But what proof do we have that his strikeout rate should rise back towards his career average (even if it is only a slight bump)?

Lee has been fabulous since his return to the bigs late in 2007. In ’08 he posted a 2.54 ERA (3.57 xFIP) and struck out 170 batters in 223 innings. Splitting time with the Indians and Phillies in ’09, Lee struck out 181 batters in 231.2 innings, earning himself a 3.22 ERA (3.69 xFIP). Looking at his 2009 as a whole, his strikeout rate was an improvement from 2008, but in reality it may not have been. His strikeout rate in the AL was worse than 2008, coming in at 6.34 per nine. The defense behind him and the spacious Safeco field will only help his ERA and WHIP next year, and Fans may have it right by projecting a 1.06 WHIP and 3.16 ERA.

Doing a quick comparison, which starter would you rather have? The pitcher that’s coming off surgery and has Jason Bay as their left fielder, or the pitcher with an outstanding defense and ballpark around him? I’d rather have Lee, but that’s not to say he’s being drafted too low. I think switching him and Santana in the draft order would be best, but in the end Santana just needs to move down below Lee on draft day.


On Chapman and Strasburg

With Aroldis Chapman inking with the Cincinnati Reds, both of baseball’s biggest pitching prospects have found homes for the 2010 season. Since both Stephen Strasburg and Chapman’s location is known, it makes it much easier to compare the two and evaluate when they should be drafted.

Chapman, a power throwing lefty from Cuba, is still raw. He will need to work on commanding all of his pitches, and no one knows just how long that will take. The Reds hope to fast-track him through the minors, but just what does that mean? Once again, not sure. My best guess is that we’ll see him in August and September, with only a 5% chance he’s up before the All-Star break (barring massive injuries to a huge amount of Reds’ pitchers). I’m really not all that impressed with or excited about Chapman, but many scouts are. Of course, who doesn’t love a lefty who throws hard?

Strasburg, the consensus number one pick of last year’s amateur draft, will likely be up sooner than Chapman. His powerful fastball (with good movement) is complimented by a sharp slider (some scouts say curve, but I see a slider) and changeup. Some scouts have said there may be some major arm injuries in his future, while others say his delivery is just fine. I’ve seen quite a bit of video, and I don’t see anything horribly wrong. He seems to open up a touch too early, but nothing that screams injury to me. I’d suggest he spends the first couple months in the minors, but it looks like the Nationals may let him run wild before that. I doubt he starts the season in the bigs, but he’s probably in the bigs a couple of weeks after he dominates in Double-A.

Both Strasburg and Chapman are going late in drafts (and not at all in a good chunk of drafts) according to MockDraftCentral. Chapman is currently the 70th pitcher off the board (284), with Strasburg as the 73rd pitcher off the board (301). Why is Chapman going so early? Strasburg is more polished and will be in the majors sooner, so I’d much rather have him. Guys like Francisco Liriano, Derek Lowe, Justin Duchscherer, and Brad Penny are going after the two young guns, and I’d rather have all of them. Strasburg is not a bad selection in the slot he is being drafted in, but Chapman is going far too high at this point. If you are in a keeper league, it’s not the worst pick in the world, but I think you should be able to get him later.


Matt Kemp’s Maturation

Los Angeles Dodgers CF Matt Kemp just turned 25 toward the end of last season, yet he’s well established as a fantasy baseball force. The 6-3, 225 pound righty batter possesses an enthralling blend of power and speed, and he enters the 2010 season with an ADP of seven, according to mockdraftcentral.com.

Kemp clocked minor league pitching, posting a combined .311/.359/.519 triple-slash. His thunderous bat (.208 ISO) and fleet feet (20+ steals in 2005 and 2006) made the 2003 6th-round pick a highly acclaimed prospect. Kemp’s plate discipline left something to be desired, as he walked in just 6.2 percent of his plate appearances. But his youth and broad base of skills gave hope that he would learn to lay off junk pitches.

Despite swinging from his heels early in his career, Kemp was a highly productive player. He posted a 93 wRC+ in limited playing time in 2006, but boosted that number to 136 in 2007. While Kemp showed plus power in ’07 (.178 ISO), his BABIP was an astronomical .417. He also didn’t utilize his speed all that much, swiping 10 bags in 15 attempts. According to Baseball Prospectus’ Equivalent Stolen Base Runs metric, Kemp cost the Dodgers a little more than two runs with his base thievery.

Kemp’s talents were clear, but he was more raw than an uncooked Dodger Dog. Since that point, however, L.A.’s center fielder has made considerable progress in refining his game:

2007: .342/.373/.521, 136 wRC+, .178 ISO, .417 BABIP, 5.2 BB%, 10 SB/ 5 CS
2008: .290/.340/.459, 116 wRC+, .168 ISO, .363 BABIP, 7.1 BB%, 35 SB/ 11 CS
2009: .297/.352/.490, 128 wRC+, .193 ISO, .349 BABIP, 7.9 BB%, 34 SB/ 8 CS

His walk rate has climbed three straight seasons. Not coincidentally, Kemp’s outside swing percentage has gone in the opposite direction: he took a cut at 36.4% of pitches out of the zone in 2007, 31.5% in ’08 and 28.5% this past year (the MLB average is about 25 percent).

Having learned to resist more of those pitcher’s pitches, Kemp hasn’t gotten behind in the count as much. His first-pitch strike percentage has also declined three years running: 62.1% in ’07, 61.5% in ’08 and 57.1% in ’09 (58-59% MLB average).

Kemp has smoothed out some of the rough edges on the base paths as well. After stealing bags at a 67% clip in 2007, he took 35 bases with a 76% success rate in ’08 and nabbed 34 in ’09, coming up safe 81% of the time. His Equivalent Stolen Base Runs figure has improved from -2.17 in 2007 to +0.09 in 2008 and +1.04 in 2009.

Many players ascend to the majors with superlative scouting reports, yet can’t seem to translate those considerable skills into production at the highest level. Not Kemp. Each season, he has sharpened his strike zone while becoming more efficient on the bases. Equipped with elite tools and baseball aptitude, Kemp should only get better from here.


Kouzmanoff, Sogard to A’s for S. Hairston, Cunningham

Oakland Athletics acquired 3B Kevin Kouzmanoff and 2B Eric Sogard from the San Diego Padres for OFs Scott Hairston and Aaron Cunningham.

Kouzmanoff’s arrival means that Eric Chavez and Jake Fox have little chance of seeing time at the hot corner. Of course, Chavez has scarcely played over the past two seasons while suffering through back, shoulder and elbow injuries, while Fox probably shouldn’t go anywhere near a glove. Dallas McPherson, who combines Chavez’s durability with Fox’s minor league feats of strength, also loses out here.

The 28 year-old Kouzmanoff is under team control for the next three seasons. He’s a decent defender at third, but what about his bat?

Kouzmanoff is extremely aggressive at the dish, having drawn a free pass in just 4.9 percent of his plate appearances in the majors. His outside swing percentage was 31.3 last season, and sits at 32.3% in the big leagues (25 percent MLB average).

The former Indians prospect puts a charge into the ball, however, with a career .174 Isolated Power. Kouzmanoff has been a slightly-above hitter, once the cavernous dimensions of Petco Park are taken into account. His wRC+ is 103.

Moving out of Petco certainly won’t hurt Kouzmanoff’s value. But keep in mind that the Oakland Coliseum does a number on offensive production as well. Courtesy of the 2010 Bill James Handbook, here are the three-year park factors for Petco and the Coliseum. A park factor of 100 is neutral, while anything below 100 favors pitchers.

Petco Park, 2007-2009

Runs: 76
2B: 75
3B: 93
HR: 73
RHB HR: 86

Oakland Coliseum, 2007-2009

Runs: 91
2B: 89
3B: 96
HR: 90
RHB HR: 77

CHONE projects Kouzmanoff to bat .259/.304/.431 next season.

Sogard, 23, spent 2009 at Double-A San Antonio in the Texas League. The lefty-swinging second baseman hit .293/.370/.400 in 530 plate appearances, controlling the strike zone (11.3 BB%, 10.3 K%) but displaying little thump (.107 ISO).

San Diego’s 2nd-round pick in the 2007 draft, Sogard has a career .292/.375/.417 line in the minors. His keen eye and quality defense give him a shot to be a regular, but the presence of Adrian Cardenas and Jemile Weeks in Oakland’s system means he’ll probably end up as a utility man.

Hairston, meanwhile, returns to San Diego after a sojourn with the A’s last summer. He was swapped to Oakland in July for RHPs Sean Gallagher, Craig Italiano and Ryan Webb.

The 29 year-old Hairston is cut from the same offensive cloth as Kouzmanoff: ample pop, but few free passes. He has a career walk rate of 6.8 percent, but also a .202 ISO. His wRC+ in the majors is 100. The former Diamondbacks prospect is often banged up, however, hitting the DL with a left shoulder injury in 2005, right biceps inflammation in 2006, an oblique strain in 2007, ligament surgery on his left hand in 2008 and a left biceps strain in 2009 (injury information from the Fantasy Pitch F/X DL Tool) CHONE forecasts a .254/.315/.448 triple-slash for Hairston in 2010. He’s under San Diego’s control through 2011.

Hairston rates as a quality defender in the outfield, and his arrival likely means that Chase Headley will transition back to third base.

Cunningham, 24 in April, has now been traded three times during his pro career. The Chicago White Sox took him in the 6th round of the 2005 draft, but shipped him to the Arizona Diamondbacks for Danny Richar in June of 2007. The D-Backs then included him in the Dan Haren deal in December of ’07.

He owns a career .309/.382/.493 line in the minor leagues. Cunningham doesn’t really excel in one particular area offensively. He possesses some power (.184 ISO), but doesn’t figure to be a massive extra-base threat in the majors. While not a total hacker, Cunningham has a mild 8.8 percent walk rate on the farm.

CHONE paints the picture of an average offensive player, as Cunningham’s 2010 projection is .263/.330/.420. His short-term role is clouded, with Kyle Blanks a 6-6, 285 pound science experiment in RF and Will Venable also figuring into San Diego’s outfield rotation. But he could work his way into more regular playing time if Hairston suffers another malady.

Hairston and Cunningham’s departures help clear Oakland’s outfield glut. Rajai Davis apparently has the left field job for the time being, but top prospect Michael Taylor figures to make his presence felt before the season is through.


ADP Values at Shortstop

When we checked the position at shortstop, it became clear through the tiers that there were some values to be had. Shortstop can be a tough position in fantasy baseball, because it’s one of the most volatile positions, but it’s also a shallow position. Having a stud there is immensely valuable, and that’s why many a successful manager will pick one in the early rounds. On the other hand, there were plenty of fantasy teams that were sunk by their early shortstop picks last year (thank you, Jose Reyes!).

So what are we to do? The answer, as always, is to focus on the position and yet avoid overpaying. So let’s take a look at the Average Draft Positions (via Mock Draft Central) and see some similar players that will cost disparate draft picks in 2010. That’ll bag us some value picks.

Alexei Ramirez is a fine player. He managed better-than-scratch defense at shortstop this year (+2.4 UZR/150), cut down on his terrible reach rate (from 42.7 to 32.1%), and made more contact in the zone (87.6% to 91%) in 2009. He still doesn’t hit line drives (16.1% career) and his power is suspect (.185 ISO in 2008, .113 ISO in 2009), but he’s a fine player with the upside to hit .280 with 20 home runs and 20 stolen bases. His ADP (108.2) is not terrible – using an eighth-round pick on that upside is fine.

But what if I told you that you could wait another six rounds and get someone that might better Ramirez’ production this year? That’s right, Elvis Andrus is being drafted, on average, with the 179th pick of drafts this year. Andrus won’t give you the power that his white-socked counterpart will provide, but he will certainly out-steal Sexei. The fans like Andrus for 42 stolen bases next year, and that is a reasonable projection given his 33 successful thefts in only 39 attempts in his rookie year. Their batting averages are projected to be similar (Andrus is projected from .266 to .280, Ramirez .277 to .286), so you’d be paying 70 draft spots for about ten home runs if you draft Ramirez. Andrus is the value here.

Rafael Furcal
has already been eviscerated by Zach Sanders this site, and maybe y’all are listening because his ADP went from 127 at the time of his post to 130.34 currently. Well, maybe a couple of you are listening, but we’ll let Zach’s analysis speak for itself. Yunel Escobar certainly is more likely to have a healthy year than Furcal and is going two-to-three rounds later (ADP 156.06), so you’d think he’s the value of his tier. There are certainly some nice things about Escobar – his power seems to be slowly developing as his ISO, fly ball and HR/FB numbers have all increased in his first three years in the league. But he still only shows modest power (his .136 ISO in 2009 was his career high) and unless you are in an OBP league, Escobar’s 15 or so home runs and five or so stolen bases aren’t very exciting.

The real value of this tier comes a whopping 111 picks later. Ryan Theriot won’t knock the stitches out of any balls this year, but once again we have the option of eschewing a mere dozen home runs at most and reaping the benefits of almost ten rounds of picks in the mean time (his ADP is 267.61!). Theriot should steal as many as 20 more bases than Escobar, all while putting up a similar batting average. His OBP won’t even be that much worse than Escobar’s, as he’s projected to put up a number in the .350s while the Atlanta shortstop should come in somewhere in the .370s. I’ll take the cheaper shortstop here, making Theriot the true value of the final shortstop tier.


Jose Valverde to Detroit

According to MLB.com’s Jason Beck, free agent reliever Jose Valverde has come to terms with the Detroit Tigers on a two-year, $14 million contract, with a $9 million option for the 2012 season. Because Valverde is a Type A free agent, the Houston Astros will receive Detroit’s first-round pick (19th overall) in the 2010 amateur draft, as well as a supplemental first-round selection.

Papa Grande’s signing ends any notion of Ryan Perry, Joel Zumaya or newly-acquired Daniel Schlereth closing out games for the Tigers.

Thirty-two in March, Valverde has a career 3.47 Expected Fielding Independent ERA (xFIP). Over the last three seasons, he has a 3.59 xFIP, with 10.26 strikeouts per nine innings and 3.31 BB/9. It’s worth noting that Valverde’s K rate has declined four years running, from 12.59 per nine frames in 2006 to 9.33 K/9 in 2009.

The former Diamondback and Astro made some changes to his approach over that time. Counter intuitively, Valverde’s punch out rate declined while his percentage of fastballs thrown decreased:

Valverde’s fastball percentage, 2006-2009

2006: 84.4%
2007: 77.8%
2008: 74.1%
2009: 69.4%

Valverde’s fastball velocity has trended up: 93.5 MPH in ’06, 93.4 in ’07, 95.5 in ’08 and a sizzling 95.8 in ’09.

The 6-4 right-hander has mixed in more mid-80’s splitters: 9.8% in 2006, 20% in 2007, 24.4% in 2008 and 26.9% this past year. Firing fastballs less often and relying more on the splitter, Valverde has tossed fewer pitches in the strike zone and has become more adept at garnering swings outside of the zone:

2006: 59.2 Zone%, 22.3 O-Swing%
2007: 55.4 Zone%, 24.4 O-Swing%
2008: 52.5 Zone%, 33 O-Swing%
2009: 52.3 Zone%, 32 O-Swing%

(The MLB average for Zone% has been between 49-52% from 2006-2009, while the average O-Swing% has been between 23-25%)

So, he’s throwing fewer fastballs and more splitters, while putting fewer pitches over the plate and getting more outside swings. Those trends might lead you to believe that he would induce more swings and misses, but that hasn’t been the case. The reason? Valverde’s blistering fastball actually has a higher whiff rate than his splitter.

Valverde’s four-seamer had a 15.2% whiff rate in 2008 and a 12.6 whiff% in 2009. For reference, the average for righty pitchers is about six percent. His splitter, by contrast, had a 13.3% whiff rate in ’08 and a 12.2% mark in ’09 (the MLB average is 12-13 percent). Both offerings get the job done, though. Since 2007, Valverde’s fastball (+0.88 runs/100 pitches) and split (+0.79) have been similarly effective on a per-pitch basis.

CHONE has Valverde compiling a 3.87 FIP in 2010, with 8.37 K/9 and 3.47 BB/9 in 57 innings pitched. That comes out to about 0.7 Wins Above Replacement, the same total that Valverde posted in 2009.

A win is thought to cost roughly $4.5 million on the free agent market. The Tigers figure to get 1.5 to 2 wins out of Valverde’s two guaranteed years, meaning the club is paying something like $7 to 9+ million per win. Of course, you also have to consider the cost of losing a first-round pick (about $6.5 million, according to Victor Wang’s research). With the lost draft pick factored in, Detroit may be shelling out between $10+ million to $13+ million per win. If you think that’s a good deal, then I have beachfront property in Pittsburgh to sell you.

For fantasy purposes, Valverde is a good second-tier option. He’s not in the same class as the Riveras, Nathans and Sorias of the world, but if your investment in Papa Grande is more moderate than Detroit’s, you won’t get buyer’s remorse.