In 2008, Mark Reynolds put up a .239-28-97-87-11 fantasy line as a 24-year old. The RotoTimes Player Rater valued that season at $12.14, making Reynolds the 76th most valuable hitter in fantasy. Only 31 pitchers recorded a higher dollar value that year.

Coming into the 2009 season, fantasy players were not impressed with Reynolds. Not only did they forecast no improvement from the Arizona third baseman, they predicted him to be significantly worse than he was the previous year.

If you forecasted Reynolds to duplicate what he did in 2008, you might pick him around 107th (76 + 31). If you used a 60-40 hitter-pitcher split, you might figure the 76th best hitter to go around pick 127. Instead, fantasy players drafted him around 100 spots lower than those methods. Reynolds’ ESPN page gave him an ADP of 218.9 for 2009.

Clearly, fantasy players did not believe in Reynolds. What did the preseason projections predict for him?

Bill James – .269-32-105-101-10
CHONE – .252-22-81-77-5
Marcel – .260-23-82-78-7
ZiPS – .257-28-89-88-7

Only the James model, frequently the most optimistic projection system, saw him bettering his 2008 numbers. ZiPS had him with a better AVG, but basically the same in HR, RBI and R, while suffering a drop in SB. Both Marcel and CHONE predicted a better AVG but drops in the other categories due to playing time issues.

But even the most pessimistic of the projection systems saw Reynolds putting up roughly an $8-10 season. For a comparison, see 2008 Adrian Beltre, who posted a .266-25-77-74-8 line, which RotoTimes gave a $10.23 dollar value. Beltre had an ESPN ADP of 103.9 for 2009.

Why did fantasy players think so poorly of Reynolds heading into the 2009 season?

Obviously the strikeouts were a major red flag for a lot of people. Reynolds set the all-time single-season strikeout record in 2008 with 204 Ks and he had a 37.8 percent K%. Additionally, he had a .329 BABIP, which seemed elevated with his 19.1 percent LD%. Even the Dutton and Bendix xBABIP model thought he was lucky in 2008, as it gave him a .304 BABIP.

Evidently, fantasy players must have been worried about the strikeouts and the low average ultimately preventing Reynolds from keeping a starting job in 2009. The pessimistic projection systems had Reynolds as a solid player even with 75 fewer ABs. Fantasy players must have figured he would not even reach the 468 ABs that CHONE projected.

The Diamondbacks did have a reasonable alternative at third base on the roster in Chad Tracy. A knee injury was the main culprit causing Tracy to log just 552 ABs in 2007-08 but all of the preseason reports were bullish on Tracy, who had a 132 OPS+ in 2005 and who carried a lifetime .285 AVG heading into the 2009 season.

But even when Reynolds struggled in 2008, he hit .226/.303/.409 after the All-Star break, Arizona kept him in the lineup along with Tracy, who saw most of his action at first base. That should have been an indication that Reynolds was going to have a long leash in 2009.

Clearly, no one saw the 44-HR, 24-SB season that Reynolds enjoyed in 2009. But since the team stuck with him through a record strikeout season in 2008, gave no indication that they thought Tracy deserved playing time ahead of him at third base and that the team did not have a top prospect at the position waiting in the minors, thinking that he was a likely candidate to lose his job in 2009 was a poor prediction.

Reynolds may have broke his own strikeout record in 2009, but the biggest whiff came from fantasy owners who relegated him to the 18th round or lower in drafts this year. RotoTimes gave his 2009 season a $27.58 value, making Reynolds the 12th-best fantasy hitter this year and one of the biggest bargains in the game.

Over the next few weeks, we’re going to take a look at a minimum of two players for each MLB club: One player who exceeded expectations in 2009 and one player that failed to reach his potential. Today, we’re looking at the Tampa Bay Rays organization that finished third in the American League East division with a record of 84-78. As a team, the Rays posted a Win Probability Added (WPA) on offense of 1.38. The team’s pitching WPA score was 1.62.

The Good: Carl Crawford, OF
The 28-year-old Crawford had a bounce back season in ’09, much to the joy of fantasy owners. After stealing just 25 bases in an injury-filled ’08 season, the speedy player reached a career high this past season with 60 (in 76 attempts). Crawford also set a career mark with a walk rate of 7.8% and with any luck it will continue to climb in ’10 if he is in fact maturing as a hitter. It was a bit of a disappointment that Crawford fell short of the 100 run target, but a bounce back season from B.J. Upton could help, as well as continued production from Evan Longoria and Carlos Pena.

Crawford probably won’t reach 60 steals again, but 40-50 would be a reasonable goal, as he’s surpassed the 50 mark in five of his seven full seasons. As it was, Crawford was a Top 10 hitter in most leagues in ’09 and there are not many players out there that are as diverse as Crawford: .280-.300 average, 15+ homers, 40-50 steals and 90-100 runs scored. He really only disappoints on driving in runs.

The Bad: B.J. Upton, OF
Inconsistent and frustrating. Those are two words that sum up Upton. In 2007, at the age of 22, he appeared to be on the cusp of fantasy greatness as the former infielder posted a line of .300/.386/.508 with 24 homers and 22 steals in just 474 at-bats. Unfortunately, his OPS of .894 dropped to .784 in ’08 and down to .686 in ’09. His home run totals have fluctuated from 24 to nine to 11. The only positive side, from a fantasy perspective, is that he’s provided 40+ steals in each of the past two seasons.

Upton will no doubt enter 2010 as a mid-level draftee in most fantasy formats. You can certainly gain value from his 40+ steals but he could very well do damage in the batting average category. His overall value with the bat has diminished significantly over the past two seasons. Upton may be in need of a scenery change, and the club just might accommodate him this winter. He remains a sleeper talent. At 25 years of age, he has yet to enter his prime as a hitter so he could explode any moment. The only thing that’s clear at this point, though, is that if you’re going Upton early in your draft… go Justin. Just don’t dismiss B.J. quite yet.

Over the offseason we’ll take a look at each position on the diamond and see how the past season affected the positional rankings and where there might be some potential bounceback value picks going into next year’s drafts.

Rankings are the height of subjectivity, of course. Drafts are the expression of the subjective opinions of the different draftees, though, so lets see what we can learn by putting these players in their (subjective, fantasy-oriented) place.

Obviously, the biggest winner of 2009 was Troy Tulowitzki, who used a .344/.421/.622 second half to rise to the top third of the rankings. With only a 64% success rate on steals, and a speed score (6.6) that was far and away the best of his career, however, owners should probably not expect another 30/20 season next year and he may be overvalued despite his good power.

Sitting just below him is perhaps the biggest dropper of the year at the position, Jimmy Rollins. A career-low in BABIP (.253) suggests the batting average should bounce back. On the other hand, a six-year low in speed score (6.8) could be the harbinger of a decline in the 31-year-old. He still was successful on almost 80% of his stolen base attempts and still hits enough fly balls to muscle those home runs out. Rollins should be the value in that second tier next year.

The third tier is an interesting mix of the rejuvenated old (Derek Jeter) and the surprising young (Ben Zobrist and Jason Bartlett). Jeter has done this all before, but fantasy owners know that he’s not dependable when it comes to the counting stats you need in fantasy. At that point in the draft, it may be worth waiting a round or two and taking a shot that one of the young guys repeats his season. Personal opinion significantly determines how you organize this tier.

The next tier contains two men that disappointed this year, but given the fact that Alexei Ramirez is 29, it’s probably the slightly younger (26) Stephen Drew that should be picked ahead of him. Given Drew’s incredible oscillating OPS, next year may yet be a good year for him. Elvis Andrus is the upside play in the tier but he’ll cost the most, too.

The last tier is only for those determined not to reach for positional scarcity. It is not recommended for those in standard mixed leagues, even if Yunel Escobar shows some signs of developing mediocre power (fly balls increasing to 30% and HR/FB increasing to 10% in 2009).

In December of 2004, the Oakland Athletics broke up “The Big Three.” The venerated trio of Mark Mulder, Tim Hudson and Barry Zito dissolved in short order, with Mulder shipped to the St. Louis Cardinals and Hudson swapped to Atlanta just two days later.

The Mulder deal has surpassed GM Billy Beane’s wildest expectations. While Mulder topped 200 frames in his first season in St. Louis, a myriad of shoulder injuries and surgeries have all but ended the left-hander’s career.

Meanwhile, the A’s got three superb seasons from Dan Haren, who averaged 4.3 Wins Above Replacement from 2005-2007.

Oakland then flipped Haren to the Diamondbacks for a prospect bounty including rookie stud Brett Anderson (3.8 WAR in 2009), top slugging prospect Chris Carter (.241 ISO between AA and AAA), outfielder Aaron Cunningham and outfielder Carlos Gonzalez.

Gonzalez was traded to the Rockies as part of the Holliday deal, and then Holliday was bartered to St. Louis for a package including 3B?/1B?/DH? Brett Wallace.

Suffice it to say, that original Mulder trade has borne much fruit for the A’s. It might seem crazy now, given how wildly successful Haren has become, but the top young player acquired in that trade was supposed to be Daric Barton.

The 28th overall pick in the 2003 draft, Barton began his career as a catcher before shedding the tools of ignorance for good in 2005. But from the get go, the lefty batter displayed a plate approach well beyond his years.

Daric established himself as an on-base fiend, posting a .294/.420/.424 line in rookie ball in 2003. He followed that up with a whopping .313/.445/.511 triple-slash as an 18 year-old in the Low-A Midwest League in 2004.

Baseball America ranked Barton as the second-base prospect in the A’s system prior to the 2005 season. BA gushed that “while Dan Haren and even Kiko Calero will pay more immediate dividends, many consider Barton to be the real prize Oakland received in the Mark Mulder trade with Oakland.”

Though Daric ultimately couldn’t remain behind the dish (he caught one game in ’05), he did nothing to dispel the notion that his bat would make him a building block for the A’s. With High-A Stockton of the California League, Barton batted .318/.438/.469 in 361 PA.

Considering the hitter-friendly nature of the Cal League, Barton’s .151 Isolated Power was pretty mild. But for a teenager to garner far more free passes than punch outs (17.2 BB%, 13.6 K%) is pretty special.

Bumped up to the AA Texas League for the second half of the ’05 season, Barton didn’t skip a beat. He hit .316/.410/.491 in 249 PA, owning the strike zone by walking in 14.1% of his PA and whiffing 12 percent. Barton even put a charge in the ball more often, with his ISO rising to .175.

Barton was a prospect darling by this point, topping the A’s farm system while also getting a place on the personal top 50 prospects lists of Baseball America’s Jim Callis, Will Lingo, John Manuel and Allan Simpson. BA called Daric’s pitch recognition “off the charts.” They did, however, voice concern over Barton’s ultimate power potential.

He was said to have “a tendency to drop the barrel of the bat and slice balls into the gaps.” No one questioned Barton’s on-base chops, but first basemen with anything less than hulking power numbers have a wary eye cast upon them.

Unfortunately, Barton wouldn’t get much of a chance to prove his pop in 2006. He continued to work the count in his first taste of AAA ball (.259/.389/.395 in 180 PA), though he rarely went deep or found the gaps. Barton’s season was derailed, however, when Tony Womack (career OBP: .317) crashed into him at first base. Daric broke his left elbow in the incident. To make up for the lost development, Barton took his cuts in the Dominican League that winter.

While still praising Barton’s “textbook swing”, BA again questioned his ability to be an over-the-fence threat. Daric’s power was called “average at best”, and if he didn’t show more thump, Barton would be a “less-than intimidating threat for a first baseman.”

True to form, Barton showcased precocious strike-zone judgment and underwhelming pop at AAA Sacramento in 2007. He posted a .293/.389/.438 line, drawing a free pass 13.1% of the time and whiffing 13.4 percent. Still, Barton’s ISO was just .145, and his major league equivalent line was a tepid .254/.331/.378. Daric did everything he could to assuage those concerns in a late-season cup of jobe with the A’s, bashing to the tune of .347/.429/.639 with 4 HR in 84 PA.

Oakland gave Barton everyday AB’s in 2008, and the results were…*yawn*. In 523 PA, he compiled a .226/.327/.348 triple-slash, with a .121 ISO that ranked dead last among first baseman with 500+ PA.

Barton did work the count well, walking 12.7% and offering at just 16.4% of pitches thrown outside of the strike zone (25% MLB average). And he got few bounces to go his way, with a .272 BABIP. Still, singles-hitting first basemen just don’t cut it (for reference, the average first baseman hit .271/.352/.463 in 2008).

In 2009, the A’s decided to bring back Jason Giambi to man first base. While the Giambino gave credence to the “you can’t go home again” concept (-0.3 WAR), Barton batted .261/.386/.458 in 313 PA back at Sacramento. Daric walked 15.1%, posting a .198 ISO. That translated to a .223/.322/.373 showing at the highest level, per Minor League Splits.

Called up in early June, Barton mostly rode the pine that month and then hit the DL with a pulled right hamstring in late July. When he returned in late August, the 24 year-old finally showed a pulse at the plate.

Not that Barton lit the world on fire, but he finished the ’09 season with a .269/.372/.413 line in 192 major league PA’s. He drew a free pass 14 percent of the time, hacking at just 13.5% of pitches off the plate. His ISO was .144.

So, what does the future hold for Barton? It has become exceedingly clear that he is never doing to possess the brute strength normally associated with the first base position (average 1B line in 2009: .277/.362/.483). And, if you listen really closely, you can hear Chris Carter and Brett Wallace breathing down Barton’s neck.

Barton’s window of opportunity hasn’t slammed shut, though. Wallace remains at the hot corner for the time being, and Carter’s best position is “hitter”, so the former White Sox and D-Backs prospect may well end up at DH.

At this point, the best-case scenario for Barton’s career would be something like the current, less-powerful version of Nick Johnson (hopefully without the need to be bubble-wrapped prior to taking the field). But Barton must hit the ground running in 2010, lest he be bumped out of the picture by branches of the original trade that brought him to the A’s.

Over the next few weeks, we’re going to take a look at a minimum of two players for each MLB club: One player who exceeded expectations in 2009 and one player that failed to reach his potential. Today, we’re looking at the Baltimore Orioles organization that finished fifth in the American League East division with a record of 64-98. As a team, the Orioles posted a Win Probability Added (WPA) of -10.70, which was 29th in the Major Leagues and second worst in the American League behind Kansas City (aka The Rays of ’09).

The Good: The Outfield
Depth is never, ever a bad thing. The Baltimore Orioles club had an exciting young outfield in ’09 with Nick Markakis, Adam Jones, and Nolan Reimold. The old man of the group, Luke Scott, was banished to DH duties for much of the season. Former top Cubs prospect Felix Pie even made some strides as a hitter, after a few disappointing seasons. Markakis is the stud of the group and he led the team with 101 RBI. Jones was on fire in April and May before fizzling at mid-season. At just 24 years of age, though, no one is overly worried, although his decreased range in the outfield is a bit of a concern. Reimold was a suprise American League Rookie of the Year candidate for much of the season before wearing down in August. His .187 ISO rate hints at impressive power potential. Like Jones, Reimold’s outfield defense was also a disappointment in ’09. Pie posted a .171 ISO rate while also playing at least average defense at all three outfield spots. Scott led the club with 25 home runs

Markakis continues to be a key fantasy outfield player, and Jones could join him in that category in ’10. Reimold’s season ended prematurely due to a torn achille’s tendon, but he’s expected to be healthy for spring training. He should be good for a .260-.280 average and 20-25 homers. Pie is definitely a sleeper to keep an eye on, but his value will also hinge on playing time. Scott can provide a boost in the home run and RBI categories for many fantasy teams and he did appear in 25 games in the outfield in ’09, so he should be eligible as an outfielder in most scenarios.

*If you’re drafting Baltimore pitchers – especially fly-ball hurlers like Chris Tillman – remember that all three starting outfielders (Markakis, Jones, and Reimold) showed below-average range in the field.

The Bad: Melvin Mora, 3B
At 37 years old, it shouldn’t be a surprise that Mora is on the downside of his career. His .260/.321/.358 line in 450 at-bats was a huge disappointment, as he was one of the worst offensive third basemen in the league in ’09. Mora posted an ISO rate of just .098 with providing just eight homers. He made above-average contact this past year (85.2%) but he just wasn’t able to get any power in his swing. His wOBA of .302 had him slumming it with the likes of fellow third basemen Emilio Bonifacio and Garrett Atkins. Defensively, Mora’s range has diminished, but he’s still a steady fielder when he gets to the ball.

Mora was worth just shy of a win in ’09, meaning he’ll enter the free agent market worth about $4 million, significantly less than the $9 million he received from the Orioles in the last year of his contract. He may very well end up having to take a minor-league contract if he wants to play in 2010. As well, his days of starting are probably over. Mora should not be drafted in any fantasy format in the upcoming season.

Recently, reader Pat left a comment on an article, asking:

“Can’t alot of pitchers HR/FB rates be expected to increase in the second half just due to the weather? … [T]herefore it would seem like a good strategy in a points league to stack pitching in the first half (and then look to make moves around the allstar break to acquire hitters).”

The reasoning here is that since bats tend to heat up as the weather gets warmer, hoard pitching early and then pick up hitters when the season is in full swing and 80 and 90 degree days are the norm.

Seems like a reasonable strategy, but would it work?

Since we would hoard pitchers early, let’s look at the top 20 starting pitchers, as determined by the final dollar values from the RotoTimes Player Rater, and check out their monthly HR and HR/FB data.

If HR prevention is the goal of this strategy, 16 of our 20 top pitchers had a HR/FB rate less than 11 percent in the final month of the season. Even August, the month last year where more HR by far were hit than any other, saw eight of our 20 pitchers have a HR/FB rate beneath 11 percent.

And this does not even take into account that the pitchers who were ranked top 20 at the beginning of the year often are nowhere to be found near the top of the leaderboard at the conclusion of the year. Using my friend Troy Patterson’s 2009 Starting Pitcher Rankings, here are the ones that did not make the top 20 at the end of the year:

Johan Santana (1), Brandon Webb (4), Jake Peavy (5), Cole Hamels (8), James Shields (10), Roy Oswalt (11), Ervin Santana (13), John Lackey (14), AJ Burnett (15), Edinson Volquez (16), Scott Kazmir (17), Carlos Zambrano (18), Chad Billingsley (19) and Daisuke Matsuzaka (20).

If you went into your draft convinced to load up on pitching, you could have wound up with a staff of Santana, Webb, Peavy, Hamels, Oswalt, Lackey and Burnett and at the All-Star break found other owners willing to offer you very little hitting in return.

Now, let us look at how pitchers as a whole fared in 2009. Here are the first and second half splits for all of the pitchers in MLB in 2009:

1st half – 4.32 ERA, 1.389 WHIP
2nd half – 4.33 ERA, 1.391 WHIP

It does not always work out this close, but this is yet another example of how easy this strategy could go awry.

Finally, you also have to consider how your league will handle trading with you when you have such an obvious need for hitters. Will your league-mates be willing to help you out and offer fair or even somewhat reasonable trades given how needy you are for offense? In friendly leagues that might not be a problem but it would likely be a bigger issue the more competitive your league is.

The best pitchers can dominate (or like Rodriguez in June – get lit up) at any point in the season. Stacking up on pitching only to turn around and deal it for hitting at the All-Star break seems like the fantasy baseball equivalent of market timing and not the best way to ensure long-term success.

Over the next few weeks, we’re going to take a look at a minimum of two players for each MLB club: One player who exceeded expectations in 2009 and one player that failed to reach his potential. Today, we’re looking at the Toronto Blue Jays club that finished fourth in the American League East division with a record of 75-87. As a team, the Blue Jays posted a Win Probability Added (WPA) of -3.08, which was 18th in the Major Leagues and ninth in the American League.

The Good: Aaron Hill, 2B
A lot of things went wrong in Toronto in 2009, but a few players had true breakout seasons, including Adam Lind, Marco Scutaro, and Hill. The second baseman was recently named Comeback Player of the Year after missing a good portion of the 2008 season thanks to a concussion, which makes his ’09 performance all the more impressive. Not even the biggest Aaron Hill fan envisioned a 36 homer, 108 RBI season occurring at any point in his career. His ISO of .213 was fifth amongst MLB second basemen, behind Ben Zobrist (.246), Ian Kinsler (.235), Chase Utley (.226), and Dan Uggla (.216). Toronto has Hill locked up through 2014 (’12-’14 are option years) and paid him just $2.6 million for a four-win season in ’09.

Hill is not likely to repeat his 30+ homer season, but he did hit 47 doubles and 17 homers in ’07. That suggests that a 20-25 homer year would not be out of the question. If he continues to hit out of the two hole in the lineup, he’s not a lock for 100 RBI… 80 would be more realistic, especially if lead-off man Scutaro leaves town.

The Bad: Shaun Marcum, Dustin McGowan, Jesse Litsch
How many teams can compete – especially in the American League East – when three members of the starting rotation are lost to serious injuries? Not many, if any, and Toronto struggled to fill the gaps. Rookies Scott Richmond, Brett Cecil, and Marc Rzepczynski each had their moments, with Rzepczynski showing the most potential for the future. Another rookie hurler, Ricky Romero, was the rotation’s second-best pitcher behind Roy Halladay and has an outside shot at the Rookie of the Year award in the AL. Marcum is expected to be back from Tommy John surgery by spring training 2010. McGowan’s timetable is fuzzy after struggling to comeback from shoulder surgery – while also dealing with subsequent nagging injuries. Litsch’s return date from Tommy John surgery looks to be mid-to-late 2010. With a new direction in the front office perhaps Toronto can figure out why its young pitchers keep getting hurt.

From a fantasy perspective, Marcum, McGowan and Litsch have little value at this point. However, all three should be monitored closely. Marcum, in particular, has a chance of putting together a string of solid starts in 2010 if his stuff bounces back to pre-surgery form. As for the ’09 rookies, Rzepczynski is an excellent sleeper candidate, especially in AL-only formats. Romero is the type of player that might attract the sophomore curse, while Cecil probably needs a little more seasoning before he’s ready to be an impact arm at the MLB level.

Earlier today, in Part I of the series, I published a chart of 34 pitchers who had a difference of 0.50 or greater between their FIP and xFIP at the All-Star break and their 2nd half ERAs. Here I want to go into more detail rather than just giving a raw score for the two metrics

In rating the two systems, I considered the metrics to recommend keeping a pitcher if at the All-Star break they were at 3.50 or lower, to listen to a trade if they were between 3.51 and 4.00, to actively look to sell the player if they were between 4.01 and 4.50 and to either sell or cut a pitcher if they were above 4.51.

Of course, we also have to consider what the pitcher’s actual ERA was at the break, too. A pitcher could still be a sell candidate if one of the metrics was significantly higher than his ERA. For these extreme cases, I considered a difference between 50-75 points to be a “listen” candidate, while above 75 to be a “sell high” guy.

Zack Greinke – His xFIP was 101 points higher than his ERA, making Greinke a sell high guy. This was a big win for FIP.

Joel Pineiro – After allowing just three home runs in 17 first half games, Pineiro served up eight home runs in 15 games after the break. This was a big win for xFIP.

Tim Lincecum – It was a very good second half of the season for Lincecum, just not as good as the first half. He did have a slightly higher HR/FB rate in the second half, and xFIP did a better job predicting his post-break ERA. Still, those fantasy owners who kept him based on his FIP did not end up disappointed.

Dallas Braden – Made just four starts after the break due to a foot infection. Officially a win for xFIP, but one we should probably dismiss due to lack of playing time.

Paul Maholm – His second half ERA was lower than his first half one, despite more HR allowed. Still, this was a pitcher that FIP would have identified as a potential buy candidate at the break, so a win for xFIP.

Tim Wakefield – Made just four starts in the second half due to leg and back injuries. Officially a win for xFIP, but one we should probably dismiss due to the lack of playing time.

Clayton Kershaw – He had a 5.0 HR/FB rate at the break and was even better in the second half, as he finished the year with a 4.1 mark. His ERA finished two full runs below what xFIP predicted. This was a big win for FIP.

Derek Lowe – Opponents posted an .888 OPS versus Lowe in the second half of the season, including 10 HR in 331 ABs. This was a big win for xFIP.

Cliff Lee – Everyone thinks the move to the NL turned things around for Lee but he was 3-0 with a 1.44 ERA in his first three games with Cleveland after the break. His HR/FB rate has been below 11 percent the past five seasons. This was a big win for FIP.

Carlos Zambrano – This was the closest one, as Zambrano’s second half ERA of 4.14 was just barely closer to his first-half FIP than his xFIP. Zambrano pitched worse in the second half than in the first, but it had nothing to do with his HR rate, which declined slightly from the 5.8 he posted in the first half. This was a slight win for FIP.

Jair Jurrjens – Both FIP and xFIP predicted Jurrjens’ ERA to rise in the second half and instead he pitched even better after the break. If you went strictly by FIP at the break, you would have listened to offers for Jurrjens. If you went by xFIP you were in the sell/cut area. This was a win for FIP.

Jeff Niemann – As with Jurrjens, both of our metrics predicted an ERA rise from Niemann in the second half. FIP had him as a sell while xFIP had him as a sell or cut guy. This was a slight win for FIP.

Nick Blackburn – Yet another pitcher that both metrics forecasted a rise in ERA. Except this time, the actual rise was more drastic than even the more pessimistic xFIP predicted. Since you might have kept him if you used FIP, this was a big win for xFIP.

Edwin Jackson – Pretty much the same thing as with Blackburn above, except you were even more likely to keep Jackson if you used FIP. This was a big win for xFIP.

Mike Pelfrey – The spread with our two metrics was not nearly as great with Pelfrey as it was for Blackburn and Jackson, but the end results were the same. This was a big win for xFIP.

Jon Garland – FIP projected Garland to be virtually the same in the second half as he was in the first half while xFIP had him being noticeably worse. The trade to Los Angeles invigorated Garland, or perhaps it was simply leaving a bad home park, as he finished the year with a 5.29 ERA at Chase Field and a 1.67 ERA at Dodger Stadium. This was a win for FIP, but probably not a pitcher anyone was targeting at the break.

Felix Hernandez – Again, both metrics predicted an ERA rise in the second half, although xFIP was more pessimistic, making him a sell high guy with a difference of 94 points. Hernandez pitched even better after the break, making this a big win for FIP.

Justin Verlander – Both metrics predicted an ERA drop in the second half for Verlander, with FIP being the most optimistic. Verlander pitched well, but saw his ERA go up, making this a win for xFIP.

Brian Bannister – A 3.66 ERA in the first half made Bannister look like a useful pitcher. Both metrics saw an ERA increase, but xFIP was the most pessimistic. This was a big win for xFIP.

C.C. Sabathia – Our two metrics were split on how Sabathia would fare in the second half. With a predicted decrease from his first half ERA, this was a big win for FIP.

Brad Penny – Our two metrics were split again. But Penny’s ERA went up in the second half. This was a win for xFIP, but not many people who used FIP were angling to acquire Penny.

Vicente Padilla – His HR/FB rate went up significantly in the second half, yet Padilla produced a lower ERA after the break, thanks to a move to the NL. Neither metric identified Padilla as a pitcher to target, although FIP came very close to hitting his actual mark.

Jarrod Washburn – Both metrics identified Washburn as a sell candidate as his ERA was 92 points lower than his FIP and 150 points lower than his xFIP. Officially a win for xFIP, although you likely would have made the same decision regardless of which metric you used.

Jered Weaver – A win for xFIP, which had him as a sell, while FIP had him as a listen. There are also extra points for xFIP for exactly predicting his second half ERA.

Joe Blanton – The metrics were split on how Blanton would fare in the second half. This was a big win for xFIP, which forecasted him to be a useful pitcher and he ended up better than that.

Bronson Arroyo – Technically a win for xFIP but not many fantasy players were running out to acquire Arroyo based on his 4.99 first half xFIP.

Jamie Moyer – Repeat the comment from Arroyo, except sub in 5.06 xFIP.

Trevor Cahill – Same as the above two, except with a 5.18 FIP.

Chris Volstad – Our two metrics were split on Volstad. FIP saw him continuing to be a sell/cut guy while xFIP saw him being a useful pitcher with a sub-4.00 ERA. This was a win for FIP.

Rick Porcello – Both systems predicted a rise in ERA but FIP elevated him to cut status. This was a win for xFIP.

Braden Looper – The two metrics were split on Looper, with xFIP predicting a drop in ERA. Looper actually pitched worse in the second half but neither system would have advocated acquiring him at the break.

Josh Geer – Made just three starts after the break due to lousy pitching. Not one that either system would have suggested to add.

Rich Harden – While most of the players with above average HR/FB rates have been of little or no value in regards to fantasy, Harden is the exception. Both systems saw him improving on his first half ERA but xFIP was much more bullish. And Harden exceeded those expectations. This was a big win for xFIP.

Randy Johnson – Appeared in just four games after the break due to a rotator cuff strain. Officially a win for FIP, but one we should probably dismiss due to lack of playing time.

*****

If you made your fantasy decisions this year based on xFIP, you would be feeling very good about your choices with Pineiro, Lowe, Blackburn, Jackson, Pelfrey, Bannister, Blanton, Harden and to a lesser extent Maholm, Verlander, Weaver and Porcello.

If you made your fantasy decisions based this year based on FIP, you would be feeling very good about your choices with Greinke, Kershaw, Lee, Hernandez, Sabathia and to a lesser extent Jurrjens and Volstad.

From a pure bulk standpoint, you were better off in 2009 using xFIP at the break. But those who relied on FIP were more likely to make the right call on four of the five pitchers with the lowest ERA in the second half among the 34 pitchers in our sample.

We really cannot make any inferences for the future based on this one small sample. What we can say is that judging strictly from results in 2009 it would be a mistake to ignore FIP completely and absolutely while making fantasy decisions at the All-Star break. This year if you used xFIP you would have made the wrong decisions on some of the best pitchers in the game.

Kenji Johjima won’t be back with the Seattle Mariners next year. The 33 year-old backstop, signed out of Japan prior to the 2006 season, has decided to return home. He leaves two years and $16M on the table, as part of an ill-advised Bill Bavasi contract extension covering the 2009-2011 seasons (is “ill-advised Bill Bavasi contract” redundant?)

Johjima posted solid 2006 and 2007 campaigns, with wOBA’s of .338 and .327, respectively. However, his offense fell off a cliff in 2008 (.272 wOBA), and he turned in another mediocre season in 2009 (.305 wOBA). Johjima’s walk and strikeout rates remained stable, but his BABIP tumbled from the low-.290’s over the 2006-2007 seasons to the .240 range from 2008-2009.

That’s extremely low, but the former Fukuoka SoftBank Hawk had a few factors working against him: he hit a lot of groundballs (never a good idea for a slow-footed backstop) and he popped the ball up often (infield flies are near automatic outs).

With Johjima now out of the picture, Seattle’s internal options behind the dish are Rob Johnson and Adam Moore.

Johnson, 26, split time with Johjima this past season. The University of Houston alumnus is known more for his defensive virtues than his lumber. Johnson has authored a .270/.323/.389 line during his minor league career , including a .270/.323/.381 triple-slash in three seasons at AAA Tacoma.

The righty batter was an absolute hacker his first time around the Pacific Coast League in 2006, walking in 3.7% of his PA, punching out 22 percent and posting a lousy .258 wOBA. In 2007, he bumped that wOBA up to .311, drawing a free pass 8.5% and whiffing 14.7%. Johnson posted similar walk and strikeout numbers in 2008, but his wOBA climbed to .351 (he hit for slightly more power, but a 40 point increase in BABIP boosted that figure).

In his first extended big league trial, Johnson batted just .213/.289/.326 in 290 PA, with a .274 wOBA. On the positive side, he walked in 9.2% of his PA. But as you might expect from that line, there were plenty of problems with Johnson’s lumber.

He was jammed at a sky-high rate, with an infield/fly ball rate of 20 percent (7th-highest among batters with 250+ PA). Opposing pitchers bullied him with fastballs, as Johnson posted an ugly -1.7 run/100 pitches value against heaters (5th-worst among batters with 250+ PA). He posted a negative run value against curves, sliders, cutters and changeups, as well.

Moore, 25, is the more interesting player from a fantasy perspective. A 6th-rounder in the 2006 draft taken out of Texas-Arlington, Moore has shown considerably more offensive promise.

In 2007, he batted a robust .307/.371/.543 at High-A High Desert. That ball park is a launching pad, but his park-adjusted line of .296/.363/.498 was still pretty tasty.

Bumped up to AA West-Tennessee in 2008, Moore mashed to the tune of .319/.396/.506. He walked 8.5% of the time, with a modest 17.9% K rate and a .186 ISO.

The 6-3, 220 pound right-handed hitter split the 2009 season between AA and AAA Tacoma. Back at West-Tennessee, he showed excellent plate discipline (14.4 BB%), batting .263/.371/.411 in 116 PA.

With the Rainers, Moore posted a .294/.346/.429 triple-slash in 368 PA. He walked 7.1 percent and punched out 15 percent, with a .135 ISO. Moore was called up to Seattle in September, drawing a few starts down the stretch.

As a guy in his mid-twenties, Moore isn’t a monster prospect. But, he has enough offensive ability to be a league-average (.330-.335 wOBA) hitter. That’s pretty valuable, when one considers that the average MLB catcher hit just .254/.320/.395 in 2009. That equates to a wOBA around .324.

The Mariners could opt to bring in a veteran via free agency, but the pickings appear slim. Assuming Seattle sticks with Johnson and Moore, fantasy owners should be rooting for Moore to grab the starting gig.

Back at the All-Star break, I wrote a piece here asking Should Fantasy Owners Use FIP? I included a chart of all of the starting pitchers who had a difference of 0.50 or greater between their FIP and xFIP.

The article ended with a promise to follow up and see which metric did better in predicting pitchers ERA in the second half of the season. Here is the table from the original article, with one additional column, this one the pitcher ERA in the second half of the season.

There are 34 pitchers in the above chart. On a raw scale, the xFIP metric did a better job of predicting 2nd half ERA, coming closer than FIP on 20 of our pitchers. Furthermore, xFIP did a better job of forecasting 14 of the 24 players with low HR/FB rates and did a better job forecasting six of the 10 players with high HR/FB rates.

In the original article, I projected the two systems would be fairly close to 50-50, so xFIP slightly exceeded my expectations (59-41). But what really surprised me was how few players’ 2nd half ERA fell in between the range of their first half FIP and xFIP. For example, Pineiro had a 2.99 FIP and a 3.77 xFIP and his second half ERA was 3.83, outside the range of the two systems. Only six of the 34 pitchers had 2nd half ERAs inside the range. Both FIP and xFIP correctly forecasted three of those pitchers.

Later today I will post a breakdown of all 34 pitchers in this survey.