Stock Up

Chris Coghlan, Marlins

Talk about a seamless transition to the majors. Often lost in the imposing shadows of top-tier prospects like Cameron Maybin, Mike Stanton and Logan Morrison, Coghlan has posted a robust .365 wOBA with the Fish in 2009.

The 2006 supplemental first-rounder out of Mississippi displayed exceptional control of the strike zone in the minors (11.8 BB%, 11.3 K%), and that firm grasp of the zone has been on display during Coghlan’s rookie year. The 24 year-old has walked 10.5% of the time while whiffing 16.6%, offering at just 20% of pitches thrown off the plate (25% MLB average).

Primarily a second baseman in the minor leagues, Coghlan has not made an especially smooth shift to left field (-13.8 UZR/150). It remains to be seen where he lines up in the long term (will Florida hold on to Dan Uggla?), but his bat is about as polished possible for a rookie.

Brad Penny, Giants

While in Boston, Penny was drubbed for a 5.61 ERA. However, his Fielding Independent ERA (FIP) of 4.48 suggested that he was basically a league-average starter. Penny punched out 6.08 batters per nine frames with the Red Sox, while issuing 2.87 BB/9. His BABIP was a lofty .336.

Since signing with San Francisco, the 31 year-old righty has allowed 4 runs in 22 IP, punching out 10 and walking four. Penny is neither the punching bag that his Boston stint would suggest, nor is he suddenly an ace with the Giants. He’s a quality mid-rotation option.

Boston possesses decision-makers far smarter than I. But, it’s hard not to feel as through the normally thorough, pragmatic organization made a couple of knee-jerk reactions in discarding Penny and John Smoltz.

That’s not hindsight bias; there were indicators suggesting that both still possessed the skills to retire hitters at the highest level. While it likely won’t have any consequence on the club’s playoff chances (in excess of 96% at the moment), Boston would probably rather not be left hoping that Paul Byrd can party like it’s 2002 or that Daisuke Matsuzaka can, you know, throw a strike.

Michael Brantley, Indians

Grady Sizemore is done for the season. That’s a downer for any baseball fan, but at least we get to take an extended look at the PTBNL in the 2008 Sabathia Swap.

Brantley, 22 is a patient lefty hitter with serious wheels. His .267/.350/.361 line at AAA Columbus does not jump off the page, but Brantley worked the count well (11.4 BB%, 10.5 K%) while swiping many bags at a high-percentage clip (46 SB in 51 attempts, good for a 90.2% success rate).

Brantley doesn’t any lightning in his lumber (.094 ISO in 2009, .069 ISO in his minor league career), and he’ll have to establish himself in a corner spot with Cleveland. But fantasy owners searching for steals, without wanting to settle on some Willy Taveras-like out-machine, could do worse than Brantley.

Clay Buchholz, Red Sox

For a 25 year-old with a career 4.24 FIP in the major leagues, Buchholz sure has been subject of many “what’s wrong with him?” debates. The lanky 6-3 right-hander boasts a wicked mid-70’s curve (+0.62 runs/100 pitches career) and a low-80’s changeup (+1.03), as well as a nifty mid-80’s slider (+1.50). Buchholz’s 92-94 MPH fastball, however, has often missed the mark (-1.11).

In 2008, Buchholz called upon his heater just 47.4% of the time. He seems to be gaining trust in the offering this season, as he’s throwing it more (over 56%) and with better results (+0.15 runs/100). He’s not blowing hitters away (6.18 K/9), but Buchholz’s walk rate has fallen from 4.86 BB/9 in 2008 to 3.79 in 2009. His transition to the big leagues might not have been immediate, but there’s still plenty of reason to expect Buchholz to be a major asset for the Sox in the years to come.

Miguel Montero, Diamondbacks

Very quietly, Montero has authored a sweet .366 wOBA for the D-Backs in 2009. The Caracas, Venezuela native performed well in admittedly hitter-friendly venues in the minors, and he has gotten progressively better in the big leagues (.296 wOBA in 2007, .330 in ’08). Chase Field certainly helps, but even in a neutral venue, Montero has been impressive. Miguel has posted +10.6 Batting Runs (a park-adjusted measure of offensive value) this season, 5th among all backstops.

Montero is an awfully liberal swinger, taking a cut at 29.7% of pitches thrown outside of the strike zone and hacking at 75.3% of offerings within the zone (the averages are about 25% and 66%, respectively). However, that aggressive approach has not manifested in a high first-pitch strike percentage (his 55.2 F-Strike% is below the 58% MLB average), and Montero has drawn a walk in 8.6% of his PA.

Stock Down

Alex Rios, White Sox

White Sox manager Ozzie Guillen, um, isn’t exactly fond of his newly-acquired outfielder. Picked up from the Blue Jays in a straight waiver claim in August, Rios has compiled a line with the Good Guys that would make DeWayne Wise puff his chest out in comparison (.140/.156/.215 in 97 PA).

The 28 year-old’s wOBA has plummeted from the .350-.360 range from 2006-2008 to a paltry .302 in 2009. Has Rios been the victim of very poor luck, or is there something deeper going on here?

The answer appears to be a bit of both. Punching Alex’s homers, K’s, stolen bases, line drives flyballs, pop ups and grounders into this expected BABIP calculator, we find that Rios’ BABIP “should” be around .306, instead of his actual mark of .274.

Even assuming all of those additional hits would be singles, that takes Rios’ line to .274/.322/.421 instead of .242/.290/.389. That equates to a wOBA of about .334. Clearly a step down from his ’06-’08 lines, though his league-average bat and typically plus defense might make that contract less onerous than it appears to be at first glance.

Of course, that’s not to say there’s no reason to be concerned. Consider the following trends:

-Rios’ walk rate has dipped 7.9% of his PA in 2007, 6.5% in ’08 and just 5.9% in 2009
-His K rate has risen from 16% in ’07, 17.6% in ’08 and 19.1% in ’09
-Rios’ ISO has fallen from .201 in ’07, .170 in ’08 and .147 in ’09
-Alex is getting jammed more often, with his infield/ fly ball rate climbing from 6.6% in ’07, 7.9% in ’08 and 12% in ’09
-Rios’ performance vs. fastballs has fallen off a cliff: +2.30 runs per 100 fastballs seen in ’06, +1.75 in ’07, +0.79 in ’08 and -0.13 in ’09.

Kyle Davies, Royals

Davies’ appearance here might seem like a head-scratcher. After all, the former Braves prospect has surrendered just two runs in 17 September innings. The results are great. The process, however, is not.

Davies has dished out six walks in each of his past two starts. The 26 year-old righty has long struggled to hone his low-90’s heat, high-80’s slider/cutter, mid-70’s curve and low-80’s changeup. Davies has issued 4.49 BB/9 during his major league career, and he is up to 4.83 BB/9 in 2009.

It’s just plain difficult to have any kind of sustained success when you put yourself at the mercy of the batter so frequently. Davies has placed just 43.6% of his pitches within the strike zone this season (49% MLB average). Not surprisingly, that has led to his falling behind the hitter often (52.2% first-pitch strike percentage). Davies’ punitive demotion to AAA Omaha offered promise (46.1 IP, 8.5 K/9, 2.7 BB/9), but he hasn’t been able to avoid the free passes with K.C.

Edgar Renteria, Giants

Signed to a 2-year, $18.5M pact during the off-season, Renteria has been little more than replacement-level in 2009 (0.2 WAR). While the 34 year-old plays a passable shortstop, his bat (-19 Batting Runs) has been all kinds of awful, even by Giants standards. Renteria’s pop continues to wane:

ISO, by year

2006: .144
2007: .138
2008: .111
2009: .079

Jermaine Dye, White Sox

Dye (who turns 36 this off-season) may find the free agent waters to be downright frosty this winter. His outfield D is DH-worthy (-17.4 UZR/150 in RF in 2009, and that’s an improvement on his 2006-2008 work). At the plate, Dye has been MIA since the All-Star break (.166/.266/.269; Jermaine, meet Alex. Alex, Jermaine).

It’s probably best not to jump to the conclusion that he’s suddenly “done”, though. Gruesome second half and all, Dye still has a .341 wOBA for the season, with a .204 ISO. His BABIP since the Midsummer Classic is stunningly low at .182.

Chris Volstad, Marlins

Volstad was vaporized for 24 runs in 19.2 IP during August, walking 13 batters and allowing 33 hits. His first September start (3 IP, 5 R, 5 BB) went little better.

Overall, though, Volstad has compiled a decent 4.39 Expected Fielding Independent ERA (XFIP, based on strikeouts, walks and a normalized home run/flyball rate). He has rates of 6.1 K/9 and 3.31 BB/9, but a huge 17.3 HR/FB% has put a massive dent in his ERA (now up to 5.17). The average for pitchers tends to be around 11-12%, and Volstad’s rate is the highest among all starters. That number should could down in 2010.

It is never too late to improve your team! Here are five players available on the waiver wire under certain thresholds, according to the numbers at CBS Sports, who could be assets for your squad for the remainder of the season.

Under 40 Percent Owned

Jason Frasor (36%) – Those hunting for saves should be thrilled to find a closer like Frasor on the waiver wire this late in the year. Yes, he blew a save last night but previously he had saves in four consecutive outings. Frasor has a good strikeout numbers with a 8.71 K/9 and his WHIP (1.03) is very good, too.

Under 30 Percent Owned

Brian Duensing (26%) – After 14 outings in relief, the Twins moved Duensing to the rotation, where he has enjoyed more success. In his six starts, Duensing is 3-0 with a 2.00 ERA and a 1.139 WHIP. He also has 28 Ks in 36 IP as a starter. The lefty topped out at 93.8 mph with his fastball in his last start. Pitch Type Values show both his fastball and slider being plus pitches.

Under 20 Percent Owned

Tim Stauffer (12%) – After starting the season 1-6, Stauffer has turned things around, going 3-0 in his last four starts and losing a win when Heath Bell blew the save in the ninth inning in Stauffer’s last start. In his last four games, Stauffer has a 2.22 ERA and a 1.397 WHIP. Stauffer is not overpowering and has not piled up strikeouts, but his changeup has proven to be a very effective pitch.

Under 10 Percent Owned

Eric Young Jr. (7%) – His father’s game was based on speed and the apple does not fall far from the tree. The elder Young notched 465 SB in his 15 year career in the majors. In four minor league seasons, the son stole 46 or more bases each time, topping out with 87 steals in 2006. Junior has three SB in his last four games with the Rockies. Playing time is going to be an issue, but if/when he gets in the game, the steals will follow.

Is This Guy Really on the Waiver Wire?

Nick Johnson (51%) – While it is true that Johnson does not have the power you would like to see from your first baseman, it is also true that he has been productive when he has been able to stay healthy. Since coming back from the DL, Johnson has a .361-1-11-9-0 line in 10 games.

Here is the latest update to Week 24 two-start pitchers. Again this list is subject to change going forward.

Pitchers not listed on last update

ANA – Lackey
COL – Jimenez
TEX – Feldman
NYY – Chamberlain
SD – Correia
BOS – Matsuzaka
WSX – Garcia
KAN – Tejada

Pitchers no longer scheduled for two starts

TAM – Niemann
STL – Smoltz
PIT – Duke
TEX – McCarthy
NYY – Gaudin
BOS – Byrd
NYM – Parnell
WSX – Torres
SD – LeBlanc
KAN – Chen

Lackey has gone 2-0 with a 0.35 ERA in his last three games. In that span he has 3 BB, 17 SO and 0 HR in 26 IP. He has road starts at Boston and at Texas. Lifetime, Lackey has ERAs above 6.00 in both places. In 15 games in Arlington his ERA is 6.12 while it is 6.34 in eight starts in Fenway.

Jimenez has a tweaked groin, which pushed back his scheduled start last Saturday to Monday. Prior to the injury, Jimenez has been on fire. In his last 11 games, all Quality Starts, he is 9-2 with a 2.60 ERA.

Feldman has won seven consecutive decisions. He is 16-4 overall and leads the American League in W. Feldman has two home starts this week, but he has been a better pitcher this year on the road. He is 4-3 with a 4.56 ERA at home, nearly two runs higher than his road ERA.

Chamberlain was cruising along with an 8-2 record before the latest version of the “Joba Rules” were unfurled. In his last six games, Chamberlain is 0-3 with a 7.88 ERA. He has pitched exactly three innings in each of his last three starts, which kills his chances to pick up any more wins.

Correia has won three of his last four decisions. In his last nine games, he is 4-2 with a 3.20 ERA with 3 HR allowed in 56.1 IP. Correia has a game both at home and on the road this week. In Petco Park, Correia has a .256 BABIP and a 3.68 ERA. On the road those numbers are .357 and 5.09, respectively.

Matsuzaka, who has been out since June 19th with a strained shoulder, is slated to be activated and start Tuesday. When healthy and active in the majors this season, Matsuzaka found things a lot tougher than he had in 2008. But few people expected him to repeat his 80.6 percent strand rate from last season.

Garcia was knocked around in his first start this season but has hurled Quality Starts in four straight outings since then, including two against the Red Sox and one against the Yankees. This week brings a road start in Seattle and a home game against the Royals.

Tejada has moved into the rotation for his last two games and has not allowed a run in 11.1 IP. He also has 14 strikeouts in that span. Tejada still has issues with command (5.74 BB/9) but a double-digit SO/9 rate will always get a fantasy player’s attention.

It is a notoriously difficult task, but projecting steals correctly over the final two weeks can provide the points many fantasy teams need to win a title. Unfortunately, there are few tools at our disposal when trying to do this in the short term. We can look at the schedule and find the catchers that are easy to run on. Then we can try to find some players that are currently playing well. Then we just have to throw the dart.

Let’s take a look at some steals options down the stretch. We’ll break this up by the different league depths to try and find some players that are available on your wire.

10-team Leagues
Julio Borbon
Sometimes you don’t even need to check the schedule. Borbon has shown the ability to put up a double-digit steal month, and that sort of impact speed does not belong on the wire. Borbon averaged 57 steals per 162 minor league games and with the lack of pop and mediocre defense, he is the rare DH that makes his bread with his feet. Rajai Davis is hotter in September, but he’s probably long gone from your wire. Andrew McCutchen is a more complete hitter, but he’s probably also long gone and he’s gone a little cold to boot. With Michael Young and Josh Hamilton hurting and Hank Blalock out of the picture, Borbon will play. It doesn’t even matter who is the opposing catcher – a shot and Borbon is on second.

12-team leagues
Chris Getz
Getz is turning out to be an okay second baseman with the ability to get on base (7% walk rate) mixed in with passable defense (-3.6 UZR) and some good speed (24 stolen bases on the year). He has six stolen bases in his last ten games, so he’s looking to take the extra base right now. Next on the schedule are a couple of teams that are not very good at throwing potential base-stealers out in Minnesota (23.5%) and Kansas City (24.7%). With Joe Mauer’s arm itching to throw him out, though, owners would be forgiven for instead turning to Everth Cabrera, who ZiPS RoS tags as a less sure thing going forward but is also facing San Francisco (28.7%) and Colorado (21.8%) this month. The catchers trying to stop Cabrera will certainly not be sporting arms that measure up to Mauer’s.

16-team leagues
Drew Stubbs
If the Cabrera is not available in your 16-team league, Stubbs is a good consolation prize. The young Red outfielder doesn’t have as much power as he’s showing right now – he’s more of a speed guy – but he can get on base (minor league walk rate over 10%). He has some guys behind him that can bring him home, a favorable schedule with four games at Florida (23%), and he’s playing every day at the top of a lineup for a team that likes to steal (7th in the NL). It’s not a perfect mix – Stubbs went a little cold after a great start – but he’s still getting on base, and Florida has given up the most stolen bases in the National League.

20-team leagues
Cory Sullivan
In deeper leagues, you have to take any guy with that has shown speed in the past. Sullivan is playing every day right now and this month his team has six games against one of the worst teams in the major leagues against the steal (Florida, with a 23% success rate at catching thieves). Atlanta (31%) isn’t so great either. Sullivan is walking more than he ever has (12%) and he’s also getting playing time because Gary Sheffield is probably out for the rest of the season. Sullivan should run into some stolen bases over the final month.

For the purposes of the “Closer Report” (which will be a weekly feature), we’ll place the relief aces in one of three categories: Death Grip (these guys have no chance of relinquishing the closer’s role; think Mo Rivera), In Control (a good chance of continuing to rack up the saves) and Watch Your Back (the set-up man is planning a coup d’etat as we speak).

Death Grip

Mariano Rivera, Yankees

Rivera missed several games with a sore groin, but he returned to pick up a save vs. the fading Rays on Sept. 7th (2 K, 1 BB) and then notched a W with a scoreless inning against Tampa the next day. The ageless king of the cutter has 9.99 K/9, with 1.56 BB/9 in 57.2 innings. That biting 91 MPH offering has been worth +2.34 runs per 100 pitches thrown.

Jonathan Papelbon, Red Sox

Papelbon pitched a scoreless frame in a non-save situation against the White Sox on Sept. 6th, then surrendered a run and 2 H in a 1.1 inning save vs. the O’s on the 9th. Despite suffering through some control issues earlier in the year, Papelbon leads all big league relievers with a 4.57 Win Probability Added.

Joe Nathan, Twins

Since he was shockingly beaten for four runs and two dingers against the White Sox on Sept 2nd, Nathan has rebounded to collect three saves in three spotless innings (4 K, no walks or hits). The 34 year-old righty has shown no signs of tailing off in 2009, whiffing 11.82 batters per nine frames with 2.72 BB/9. Nathan’s 33.2 O-Swing% is his best mark dating back to 2002 (25% MLB avg), and his Expected Fielding Independent ERA sits at a shiny 3.01.

Joakim Soria, Royals

Joakim was a busy man this week, collecting four saves (one apiece against LAA and CLE, and two vs. Detroit). In all, Soria struck out eight, walked one and allowed no runs in 3.2 IP. The Mexicutioner’s K rate has spiked in ’09, all the way up to 12.13 per nine innings (8.82 in 2008). Not surprisingly, Soria’s contact rate (71.5%, 80.5 MLB avg.) is a career low. His curveball (+4.79 runs/100 pitches thrown) is illegal in several states.

Andrew Bailey, Athletics

As Dave Allen notes, Bailey has turned in a superb rookie campaign. The imposing right-hander has laid waste to hitters with a stifling 94 MPH fastball (+1.86 runs/100), 89 MPH cutter (+1.24) and a 78 MPH curve (+2.97). Bailey has been worth 2 Wins Above Replacement this season. Only Jonathan Broxton, Brian Wilson and Matt Thornton top that mark among relievers. The 25 year-old picked up his 23rd save of the season on Sept. 6th, striking out two against the Mariners.

Bobby Jenks, White Sox

Bobby worked just once since we last checked in on the A.L.’s closers, firing two scoreless innings vs. the A’s in a non-save situation on Sept. 9th. Jenks’ secondary stuff has been outstanding in 2009 (+1.91 runs/100 for the slider, +3.45 for the curve), but his fastball hasn’t been as effective. Bobby’s heater was worth +1.55 runs/100 in both 2007 and 2008, but the pitch checks in at -0.47 this year.

David Aardsma, Mariners

Aardsma has experienced plenty of control issues during the course of his big league career (5.3 BB/9), but he has not issued a free pass in his last seven frames. The electric right-hander hasn’t been a strike-throwing fiend or anything, but his 4.6 BB/9 rate is a career-best. Aardsma has been rather fortunate in the HR department (3.6 HR/FB%), but Safeco is a pretty sweet venue for a flyball reliever backed by outstanding defenders. His XFIP is 4.23.

In Control

J.P. Howell, Rays

Things have not been A-Okay for J.P. lately, as the finesse lefty who gets power results has given up four runs and four walks in 2 IP this month. Howell has actually appeared in five games in September, but one stint lasted just 0.1 IP, and his last two (the 5th and the 6th vs. Detroit) resulted in his being pulled before he recorded an out.

J.P.’s K rate has increased three years running (8.65 in ’07, 9.27 in ’08 and 10.74 in ’09), but so has his walk rate (3.71 in ’07, 3.93 in ’08, 4.24 in ’09). Despite the rough patch, Howell’s XFIP is still sturdy at 3.46.

Frank Francisco, Rangers

Watch out for: C.J. Wilson

Frank took the mound just once this past week, as Texas throttled Cleveland by a combined score of 31-14 in a three-game sweep. Francisco worked a scoreless frame during the first game of a Sept. 8th double-header vs. the Tribe, serving up a two-run tater to Matt LaPorta.

The 30 year-old power righty has punched out 9.94 hitters per nine frames in 2009, with a career-low 2.38 BB/9. Francisco is really attacking the strike zone (55.7 Zone%, 49.3% MLB avg.), and when he does place one off the plate, batters are chasing more often (26.9 O-Swing%, 22.7% career avg).

Brian Fuentes, Angels

After walking just one hitter in August, Fuentes has issued ball four on five occasions in 4 September frames. He has allowed five hits and two runs in the process. Fuentes’ XFIP has ballooned to 4.83 in 2009, as his K rate is a career-worst 7.99 per nine innings. Nothing seems imminent here, but it wouldn’t be a bad idea to keep any eye on Jason Bulger down the stretch.

The 30 year-old former 1st-round pick of the D-Backs has posted rates of 8.74 K/9 and 4.21 BB/9 this year. Control has always been a bugaboo for Bulger, however. He has issued 4.6 BB/9 during his major league tenure, with a 47.8 first-pitch strike% (58.2 MLB avg).

Jason Frasor/Scott Downs, Blue Jays

Downs is back, but Frasor continues to get the call in the ninth inning. Frasor racked up three saves this week, taking down the Twins twice (Sept. 8th and the 10th) and then de-clawing the Tigers yesterday. He struck out two in three scoreless innings, without allowing a hit.

The former 33rd-round draft pick who bounced from Detroit to Los Angeles (Dodgers) before getting a shot in Toronto has posted rates of 8.76 K/9 and 2.68 BB/9 in 2009. An increase in his outside swing% (up to 24.8%; his career mark is 19%) has helped, and Frasor has turned in a very fine year. But a .250 BABIP and a 5.3 HR/FB% explain the difference between his great ERA (2.15) and merely good XFIP (3.77).

Fernando Rodney, Tigers

Rodney is enduring an awfully rough September, having allowed five runs, four hits and five walks in 4.2 IP. The pending free agent may come with the Proven Closer (TM) tag, but his peripherals (8.37 K/9, 4.62 BB/9) remain more adequate than awesome. The 32 year-old has a 4.21 XFIP in 2009, the third straight season in which that figure has risen.

Jim Johnson, Orioles

Appearances have been few and far between for Johnson as Baltimore plays out the string. The Bronx Bombers bashed Jim for 3 hits, 5 runs and two walks without retiring a batter on Sept. 2nd, and then he picked up a save in a much more quiet cameo against Texas on the 5th. In 61.2 IP this season, Johnson has struck out 6.28 per nine innings, with 2.92 BB/9.

Watch Your Back

Kerry Wood, Indians

Watch Out For: Chris Perez

Wood took some time off to rest his ailing shoulder, but he has chucked two clean innings since returning. He notched his 18th and 19th saves of the season against Minnesota on Sept. 4th and the 6th. That’s a happy development for Wood. Because, if you listen really closely, you can hear Perez breathing down Kerry’s neck.

The former St. Louis Cardinal experienced a bump in the road vs. Texas on the 8th (Marlon Byrd took him deep), but Perez has been money for the most part. Since coming to Cleveland, he has posted a 32/8 K/BB ratio in 25.2 IP.

For the purposes of the “Closer Report” (which will be a weekly feature), we’ll place the relief aces in one of three categories: Death Grip (these guys have no chance of relinquishing the closer’s role; think Mo Rivera), In Control (a good chance of continuing to rack up the saves) and Watch Your Back (the set-up man is planning a coup d’etat as we speak).

Death Grip

Jonathan Broxton, Dodgers

After an early-August hiccup which included 3 dingers and 4 runs in a five inning stretch from the 5th to the 15th, Broxton is back to dealing. The hardest-throwing reliever in the business (sorry, Daniel Bard) collected three saves this week. Broxton whiffed five and walked one in three innings, subduing the Padres and Diamondbacks (twice). With 13.57 K/9, Broxton is the leader in the clubhouse among relievers (tough luck again, Mr. Bard).

Heath Bell, Padres

Bell also notched three saves this week, besting Broxton’s Dodgers on Sept. 6th and then cutting the Wild Card hopeful Giants down to size on the 8th and the 9th. He punched out two, walking one and allowing one hit in three frames. Heath’s 2009 season is very similar to the 2007 campaign that really put him on the map. His K/BB in ’09 is 3.42 (3.4 in ’07), with a 2.99 Expected Fielding Independent ERA (2.84 in ’07).

Huston Street, Rockies

Nursing a right biceps injury, Street hasn’t taken the mound since Sept. 1st. He’s making progress toward a return, though Franklin Morales surely wouldn’t mind of Huston took his sweet old time.

Morales is mowing hitters down this month, with 6 K’s, two walks, two hits and five saves in 5 IP. In 26.2 innings out of the ‘pen this season, the 23 year-old southpaw has punched out 27 batters while sitting at 94 MPH with his fastball. Control, however, remains a work in progress (14 BB in relief, with a 49.5 first-pitch strike% that’s way below the 58.2 percent MLB avg).

Trevor Hoffman, Brewers

Trevor whiffed two in a non-save appearance vs. San Francisco on Sept. 6th, but he fell victim to the blistering hitting machine that is Matt Holliday on the 8th. Holliday took Hoffman deep for a two-run shot that proved to be the difference in the game. The 41 year-old Hoffman has posted rates of 8.18 K/9 and 2.25 BB/9 in 2009, with a 3.63 XFIP that’s nearly identical to his 2008 mark (3.59).

Francisco Rodriguez, Mets

During a season in which the Amazin’s have been forced to trot out lineups chock full of “you mean he’s still playing?” replacements, K-Rod’s peripherals have eroded for a 4th straight year (1.88 K/BB in 2009).

He hasn’t performed terribly, mind you, but Rodriguez has issued five free passes per nine frames. His first-pitch strike% has dipped to just 50.4% as well. Rodriguez’s hard mid-80’s changeup is still outstanding (+4.23 runs/100 pitches in ’09, +3.86 career), but his 80 MPH breaking ball is getting hit far more often than in years past (-0.14 runs/100 in ’09, +2.64 career). K-Rod picked up two saves this week against the Cubs, allowing a run and a walk in 1.2 IP.

In Control

Rafael Soriano, Braves

Watch Out For: Mike Gonzalez

Slumping Soriano: Rafael has surrendered four runs, seven hits and a homer in 4.1 IP this September. The Astros were particularly unkind to the pending free agent, hammering him in back-to-back games on the 8th and the 9th. Nothing is off velocity-wise, as Soriano is sitting 94.8 MPH this month (94.6 for the season). Gonzalez notched a save yesterday, though that was probably just Bobby Cox rightly not wanting to tax Soriano’s arm for a third straight day.

Brian Wilson, Giants

Wilson racked up a save in an extended 1.2 inning appearance against Milwaukee on Sept. 5th (1 K, 1 H), then tossed a scoreless frame against San Diego on the 9th (no save, and he gave up two hits). The 26 year-old is turning in his finest season in the big leagues, posting a 3.35 XFIP. He has lowered his XFIP every year in the majors, and his 1.67 Win Probability Added in 2009 is closing in on his career-best 1.77 in 2008.

Jose Valverde, Astros

Papa Grande aged a year this week. No, he wasn’t perturbed by poor pitching performances (he collected two saves and a W in three appearances, whiffing three in three scoreless innings). Rather, Houston GM Ed Wade clarified a paperwork error that listed Valverde as being 31 instead of 32. Still, Valverde’s got nothin’ on Miguel Tejada, who can attest to the fleeting nature of age 31 and 32.

Francisco Cordero, Reds

Cordero struck out the side vs. Atlanta while picking up a save on Sept. 6th, but Colorado crushed him for 2 hits, 2 runs and 2 walks in 0.2 inning blown save on the 9th. CoCo’s 1.83 K/BB ratio is his worst mark since 2000, as is his K rate (8.08 per nine frames). His XFIP (4.10) is over a run-and-a-half higher than his ERA (2.44). When it comes time for the 2010 draft, buyer beware.

Ryan Madson, Phillies (Brad Lidge gets the boot)

Watch Out For: Brett Myers

Enough is enough: Phillies skipper Charlie Manuel says that Lidge will work in “low stress” situations during the rest of September, which is a polite way of saying that he wants the forlorn reliever to go far, far away for a while. Lidge’s lost 2009 fell further into the abyss in September, as he walked three and allowed two runs in 3 IP. His fastball has been the worst in the majors (-3.07 runs/100 pitches), and that vaunted slider (+2.06 runs/100 career) isn’t doing much, either (-0.01).

Madson figures to get the first crack at ninth-inning opportunities. The 6-7 righty has turned in another stellar season in relief, striking out 9.05 batters per nine frames with 2.7 BB/9. Madson’s fastball velocity spiked during the second half of the 2008 season, and most assuredly, he has kept the extra heat in ’09 (95 MPH). The 29 year-old’s cheddar is giving batters problems (+0.81 runs/100 pitches), but his 84 MPH changeup has been even nastier (+2.50). Madson has induced outside swings 34.3% of the time, well above the 25% MLB avg.

We can’t totally count out the recently activated Myers, either. Hip surgery was supposed to close the book on Brett’s season, but he recovered more quickly than anticipated. Since returning on Sept. 5th, Myers has struck out three and walked two in 3.1 scoreless innings.

Ryan Franklin, Cardinals

After posting a microscopic ERA that defied his more modest peripherals, Franklin appears to be Earth-bound. In three September appearances, he has allowed four runs, five hits and three walks. Franklin walked only eight batters during the first four months of the season, but he issued six free passes in August, and September obviously isn’t off to a sterling beginning. Franklin’s XFIP is an ordinary 4.27, yet his ERA sits at 1.67.

Carlos Marmol, Cubs

Watch out for: Kevin Gregg, Angel Guzman

Marmol has excelled this September, picking up five saves in 5.1 IP. He has whiffed eight and walked two, surrendering two hits in the process. With arms and legs flailing all over the place, as well as sky-high strikeout and walk rates (11.1 K/9, 7.95 BB/9), Marmol is among the more enjoyable hurlers to watch. His wicked low-80’s slider is still stifling the competition (+1.3 runs/100 pitches), though not to the same extent as previous seasons (+2.20 career) due to all of those batters trotting leisurely to first base.

Matt Capps, Pirates

Watch Out For: Joel Hanrahan

As the Pirates get ensnared in all sorts of undesired history in September, Capps trudges along toward the end of his worst season in the majors. In an ’09 campaign interrupted by an elbow injury (this after shoulder problems in ’08), the Mad Capper has served up 1.71 round-trippers per nine frames. He last collected a save on Aug. 27th.

Should Capps be looking over his shoulder? Since coming to the ‘Burgh in the Nyjer Morgan/Lastings Milledge/Sean Burnett swap, Hanrahan has punched out 33 batters in 26.1 IP. The easy narrative is that Hanrahan was horrible in Washington (7.71 ERA in 32.2 IP) and a change of scenery has made him a new man (2.05 ERA with the Bucs).

However, his K/BB ratio with the Nationals was actually higher (2.5 with the Nats, 1.94 with the Pirates). The former Dodgers prospect remains the same high-octane, control-challenged reliever. He may never be a lock-down option, but he’s certainly useful. Hanrahan is not nearly as bad as his 2009 line would suggest: his BABIP is an obscene .412. Joel’s 4.21 XFIP bests Capps’ 4.44 figure. Neither is an ideal option, but keep Hanrahan in mind of you’re jonesing for saves.

Watch Your Back

Matt Lindstrom/Leo Nunez, Marlins

Watch Out For: Dan Meyer

Nunez (4.26 XFIP, 7.92 K/9, 3.38 BB/9, 1.76 HR/9) seemingly hasn’t done anything to get an iron-clad grip on the closer role, but he continues to take nine-inning duties. The former Pirates prospect was lashed for 3 hits, 3 runs and two big flies against Washington on Sept. 6th (Ryan Zimmerman and Willie Harris did the damage). Nunez did, however, recover to collect scoreless saves against the Mets on the 8th and the 9th.

Juan Gutierrez, Diamondbacks (Chad Qualls done for the season with a dislocated kneecap).

So far, so good: since taking over for the injured Qualls, Gutierrez has allowed one run in 4.2 IP. During that time frame, the Venezuelan native has picked up two saves, striking out three and walking none. Overall, Gutierrez has punched out 8.42 hitters per nine innings, with 3.92 BB/9. His repertoire is expansive (a 95 MPH fastball, 84 MPH slider, 80 MPH curve and an 84 MPH changeup), though his slider (+4.33 runs/100) has been the most effective by far.

Mike MacDougal, Nationals

Robert Meiklejohn MacDougal (really, that’s his name) has been touched up this September. In 4 IP over five appearances, the former Demon Deacon has coughed up four runs, four walks and seven hits. Mac’s XFIP with the Nationals is 4.62, and he has posted jus a 54.2 first-pitch strike% overall this year.

Everyone is happy when one of their pitchers is scheduled for two starts in a week. But that is not always a good thing. Here are five pitchers you may be on the fence about (or should be on the fence) putting into your lineup for Week 22.

Jon Garland – After some ugly starts at the beginning of the year in Chase Field, Garland has settled down and been a reliable starter wherever he pitches for the last two-plus months. Since the beginning of July, Garland is 5-4 with a 3.45 ERA and a 1.26 WHIP. Get him active for his two home starts this week.

Wade LeBlanc – If you are looking for a waiver addition with two starts this week LeBlanc could be your guy. Owned in just four percent of CBS Sports leagues, LeBlanc has won back-to-back games on the road. He allowed just six hits and two runs in 13 IP. He gets one home start this week in Petco and faces two of the worst teams in the majors in the Diamondbacks and Pirates, neither of which do particularly well against lefties.

Carl Pavano – The overall numbers in 2009 are not great for Pavano but he has been solid in his starts for Minnesota and has hurled Quality Starts in five of his seven outings for the Twins. Since the trade, Pavano is averaging 7.11 K/9 and he has a 1.26 WHIP. He has favorable matchups this week, with a start against Cleveland, the team he began the season with, and a matchup against Jarrod Washburn and the Tigers. Pavano did lose a game against the Indians earlier this month, but he notched 6 Ks in 6 IP in the road outing.

Ian Snell – Since a disastrous start against the Yankees in mid-August, Snell has been a useful fantasy pitcher. He has posted four wins in his last five games, with a 3.33 ERA, although his WHIP (1.48) and Ks (12 in 27 IP) have left owners wanting more. Snell is capable of adding strikeouts, he averaged 7.39 K/9 last year and hit 96 in his last start, and he gets two home starts this week, although one of them is a rematch with New York. Overall, I like his chances this week of picking up a win.

Sean West – The rookie has been solid for the Marlins this season since his promotion in late May. But he has a huge home/road split and this week he has two away games. Five of his six wins have come at Dolphin Stadium. On the road he is 1-3 with a 6.81 ERA and a 1.67 WHIP. With starts this week in St. Louis (against Wainwright) and Cincinnati, leave West on the bench this week.

Other scheduled two-start pitchers in Week 24 are listed below. Please remember that these are projected pitchers and changes can and will happen between now and next week.

Verlander, Lincecum, Lee, Weaver, W. Rodriguez, Nolasco, Hanson, Dempster, Zambrano, Gallardo, Arroyo, Price, Niemann, Smoltz, Washburn, Duke, Hammel, McCarthy, Gaudin, Suppan, Sowers, Mock, Byrd, Parnell, Tomko, C. Torres, D. Hernandez, Purcey, Wells, Buckner, Berken, Chen.

Check back Sunday for an update of two-start pitchers.

Now, I would like to take a step back and provide some accountability for previous picks. There needs to be a two-week time lag because last week’s pitchers have yet to complete their second start. So here are my selections for Week 22 and how they did.

Cahill – Advised to start. 5.40 ERA, 3 Ks, 1.60 WHIP (1 start)
Richard – Advised to start. 1.35 ERA, 6 Ks, 0.90 WHIP (1)
Sanchez – Advised to sit. 1.50 ERA, 17 Ks, 1.00 WHIP (2)
Wakefield – Advised to sit. 6.00 ERA, 4 Ks, 1.50 WHIP (1)
Washburn – Advised to sit. 12.71 ERA, 2 Ks, 2.12 WHIP (1)

In some organizations, right-hander Jeff Niemann would be star pupil of the pitching staff. The 26 year-old did not have the most pristine bill of health in the minor leagues, dealing with intermittent shoulder problems, but he punched out over a batter per inning while displaying average control. The 4th overall selection out of Rice in the 2004 draft stands a towering 6-foot-9, with a 260+ pound frame that pumps low-90’s gas.

As a Tampa Bay Ray, however, Niemann is just another promising arm for a team boasting a veritable assembly line of premium pitching prospects. Regardless, fantasy owners will want to take note of Niemann’s more dominant performances in the second half. Take a look at his peripherals from April-June, and then July-September:

April-June: 79.2 IP, 5.08 K/9, 3.95 BB/9
July-September: 81.2 IP, 6.72 K/9, 1.65 BB/9

Since July, Niemann has boosted his K rate, while simultaneously paring his rate of free passes issued by a considerable amount. While it could be dangerous to just assume that he will continue to perform more toward the July-September spectrum than the mundane April-June stretch, there are differences in Niemann’s plate discipline numbers that could help explain his excellent run of starts.

During April of 2009, Niemann pitched tentatively. He didn’t locate many offerings within the strike zone, often getting behind in the count with low first-pitch strike percentages. In May and June, Niemann continued to fall behind the batter often. Perhaps in an attempt to compensate, Niemann lobbed more pitches over the plate after the batter got the advantage. This led to plenty of contact against him:

April: 45.9 First-Pitch Strike%, 89.6 Z-Contact%
May: 53.5 F-Strike%, 94 Z-Contact%
June: 54.8 F-Strike%, 92.9 Z-Contact%

(MLB averages are 58.2 for F-Strike% and 87.8 for Z-Contact%)

Since July, though, Niemann is forcefully taking control of the count. His first-pitch strike percentage has soared, and opposing batters aren’t touching quite as many of his pitches within the strike zone:

July: 65 F-Strike%, 88.6 Z-Contact%
August: 64.2 F-Strike%, 88.9 Z-Contact%
September: 66.1 F-Strike%, 91 Z-Contact%

So, what has changed? Niemann has not budged from his fastball-centric approach:

Pct. of fastballs thrown

April: 73%
May: 71.5%
June: 73.9%
July: 72.4%
August: 76%
September: 72.2%

He has tossed the pitch over 73% of the time in 2009, with positive results (+0.87 runs/100 pitches thrown). Niemann does not mix in very many breaking pitches, but he has increasingly relied upon his mid-70’s curveball as opposed to a slurvy low-80’s slider since July. That’s a positive change, considering the curve has been worth +0.50 runs/100 pitches thrown during his big league career, while the slider (-1.17) has been slaughtered.

Niemann appears to be a much more polished hurler than the guy chucking fastballs in the general vicinity of home plate back in the spring. He is locating his above-average heater much better, leaping ahead in the count and putting hitters in his clutches (getting ahead of the batter, obviously, pays huge dividends). Niemann has also put an ineffective slurve on the backburner, instead choosing to throw a solid mid-70’s curve with plenty of downward movement. The former Rice star went back to the drawing board, evolving into a more efficient, dominant starter.

Eight teams are participating in daytime baseball this afternoon and the rest of the clubs will get underway later tonight. With a whole lot of action in store for 9/9/09, let’s hit some links…

Eric Mack of CBS Sports provides a handful of starters who are destined for success down the stretch. “If you still are playing Fantasy Baseball,” Mack writes, “you are either fighting out the last few weeks for wins, ERA, strikeouts, WHIP and saves or you are desperately trying to line up a winning staff in your Head-to-Head playoffs.” Daisuke Matsuzaka, John Smoltz, Brad Penny and Barry Zito headline his list.

Florida’s Chris Coghlan tops Knox Bardeen’s latest edition of “Fantasy Fill-Ins” over at AOL Fanhouse. The rookie outfielder is batting .424/.457/.485 in the month of September and .307/.380/.444 overall. Bardeen also likes Luis Castillo, Placido Polanco and Adam LaRoche for the regular season’s final few weeks.

Derek Ambrosino of The Hardball Times discusses some of the more disappointing top 2009 fantasy picks, and looks ahead to their value for 2010. Corey Hart, Cole Hamels and Alexei Ramirez top the list. Can we expect them to rebound next season, and are these guys worth hanging onto in keeper leagues?

Mike Silver, also writing for The Hardball Times, calls the Giants’ Jonathan Sanchez “the pitching equivalent of the three-true-outcomes hitter” because he “matches eyepopping strikeout rates with equally huge walk rates.” What does that mean for his long-term fantasy value? Well, if he can tone down the walks while maintaining an effective wildness, things are looking up. As Silver notes, “the hurler has amassed a career 75.3 percent contact rate over 388.1 innings through parts of four seasons.” That’s one of the best ongoing rates in all of baseball.

Tim Dierkes of RotoAuthority hosts this week’s “fantasy roundtable,” asking four other fantasy baseball experts this question: “Have you ever quit on a fantasy team of yours? If so, what were the circumstances? If not, how were you able to maintain your motivation even after you had no chance?”

Have a link, comment or question you’d like to send my way? I’m always looking for new content and fantasy strategies. Shoot me an e-mail or find me on Twitter.

Tuesday night Zach Duke tied a major league record by allowing hits to eight consecutive batters to start the game. The Cubs scored seven runs in the inning en route to a 9-4 laugher. In his last three starts, Duke has allowed 20 runs (18 earned) and watched his ERA climb 64 points.

Prior to this season, Duke had produced a FIP lower than his ERA three straight years. The most common explanation given for this was that the Pirates had a lousy defense. Then this season, Duke got off to a hot start and the improved Pittsburgh defense received a lot of credit.

After his June 2nd start against the Mets, when Duke allowed just one run in seven innings, his record stood at 6-4 with a 2.62 ERA and his name was trotted out as a potential All-Star candidate for the Pirates. He did not make the team initially, but was later selected as a replacement for the injured Matt Cain.

But even back in early June, there were signs that Duke was pitching over his head. Rest of Season ZiPS forecasted him to post a 5-9 record with a 5.11 ERA on June 4th. While there are still three weeks to go in the year, Duke’s record since the win over the Mets is 4-10 with a 5.05 ERA.

The Pirates still have an above-average defense. UZR/150 places them eighth with a 4.3 team mark, one closer to fifth place than ninth. And Duke’s ERA (4.02) still is lower than his FIP (4.38).

Even after his last three brutal starts, Duke has a BABIP 23 points below his career average. His LOB% of 74.3 percent is his best in the majors since his 14-game debut in 2005.

Some will point to the loss of good defensive players like Jack Wilson and Nyjer Morgan contributing to Duke’s slide since early June. Others will note that Duke appeared to take a step forward prior to his last three starts.

Duke has been a better pitcher in 2009. His K/BB ratio of 2.12 is his best mark since 2005. His O-Swing% of 29.9 percent is the seventh-best mark in the majors and a career best. Pitch Type Values shows both his fastball and curve being improved pitches, with his hook going from neutral/below-average offering to a plus pitch.

And with all of that, Duke is still essentially the same pitcher that he was in 2008. A season ago, his FIP was 4.40 and now it is 4.38. His tRA is 5.04 today and was 5.22 last year.

Going forward, can Duke maintain the gains made with his curve? Can he continue his pinpoint control (career-best 2.03 BB/9)? Can he continue to be one of the best pitchers in the game in getting batters chase pitches out of the strike zone? On the flip side, will Duke be able to stem a four-year trend of an increased flyball rate?

Duke has been both fortunate (BABIP, LOB%) and the beneficiary of improved defense. No matter which one you think has played a bigger role, how confident are you that it will be the same in 2010 for him? Just some thoughts to ponder for those of you in deep keeper leagues as you prepare your team for next season.