Bobby Jenks is out for the rest of the year and the rumors have begun to fly. See ESPN, the Examiner, RotoWorld, MLBTradeRumors, and even Bob Nightengale chime in with their belief Jenks will get traded this offseason.

Entering his second year of arbitration, his steady save totals should augment his $5.6 million salary to the point where he may not be the best use of Kenny Williams’ resources. He was, for example, only worth $1.9 million this year.

His story is also not one of consistency. Generally speaking, he was lucky last year despite poor underlying stats, and this year he’s had the reverse happen. It might just be the story of small sample sizes in the end, but can a team like the White Sox afford a closer that costs more than $7 or $8 million?

Much was made in 2008 of the precipitous decline of Jenks’ strikeout rate. Surely he must be suffering from an arm injury, we all said. No one goes from striking out almost a batter per inning to 5.55 K/9 in one year without something being wrong, right? Especially with his fastball velocity down almost two MPH off its peak. Well, not so much. He got through the year with a sub-3 ERA, perhaps thanks to his career high 57% groundball percentage, and also thanks to a little luck (.261 BABIP).

Fast-forward to this year and the secondary stats all normalized to his career rates (8.27 K/9, 2.70 BB/9), and his fastball regained a mile per hour. Unfortunately, his luck turned too. While his BABIP (.298) stayed the same, his other batted ball statistics went south. The real ‘unlucky’ part of his game concerns home runs. Despite a reasonable fly ball percentage (33.1%), he’s giving up a home run and a half this year thanks to a distorted home run per fly ball rate (17%, 9.6% career).

So now the portly (6’3″ 275 lbs) closer is on the DL with a calf strain and the team will get to audition their possible replacement in Matt Thornton. What can we expect, and does Thornton have the stuff to be the closer in 2010?

Non-traditionalists will look at his numbers and give an unqualified thumbs up to Thornton’s candidacy. 330+ innings into his career, his strikeout rate is good overall (9.37 K/9) and excellent recently (over 10 K/9 the last two years). In his last 134 innings, his walk rate has been under 2.55 BB/9, which is also excellent. He’s actually had two straight identical seasons with great underlying numbers. Sure, his groundball rate took a step back this year, and his flyball rate went in the wrong direction, but can you really argue with two straight FIPs under 3?

He has the fastball of a closer (95+ MPH), a good slider (neutral by linear weights over his career), he gets people to reach (reach% over 25% for the last four years), and they don’t make great contact even when the ball’s in the zone (79.7%). What’s not to like?

Ah, there’s the rub. Thornton has blown 10 saves against two saves in the last two years and for some the thought is that he can’t handle the pressure. Are there actually great relievers that can’t be closers? This may need a more comprehensive look, but as anecdotal evidence I submit to you Heath Bell. Bell had 12 blown saves against his first two saves despite good underlying numbers that don’t even look as nice as Thornton’s do now. Sure, Bell may be slowing down a little recently, but he sort of blew through that blown saves problem this year, wouldn’t you say?

It is never too late to improve your team! Here are five players available on the waiver wire under certain thresholds, according to the numbers at CBS Sports, who could be assets for your squad for the remainder of the season.

Under 40 Percent Owned

Miguel Olivo (30%) – With catchers, after you pass the first few tiers basically you want someone to help you in one category or another, most often HR or AVG. Olivo falls into the former, as he has 23 HR for the season. That makes him worth picking up right there. Add in the fact that he has also swiped a couple of bags in September and that makes him a worthwhile add down the stretch.

Under 30 Percent Owned

Bud Norris (26%) – After experiencing early success in his rookie season, Norris allowed 22 runs in 16.2 innings over four starts and saw his stock drop dramatically. But in his last three outings, Norris is 2-0 with 2.12 ERA with 21 Ks in 17 IP. A fastball/slider pitcher, Norris hit 98.4 in his last start and for the year has a 94.1 average fastball.

Under 20 Percent Owned

David Murphy (17%) – In his last 18 games, Murphy is batting .333/.395/.565 with 4 HR, 10 RBIs and 17 R. He is entrenched as an everyday player, an issue earlier in the season, and is the Rangers’ primary LF now, while also getting starts in RF and DH.

Under 10 Percent Owned

Ross Detwiler (2 %) – At first glance, an 0-6 record with a 5.80 makes one wonder why anyone saves a roster spot for Detwiler. But he has a 3.80 FIP and LH starters who can hit 94 do not grow on trees. In his last outing, Detwiler allowed 1 ER in 5 IP and posted 6 Ks. He is a high risk-high reward pitcher down the stretch.

Is This Guy Really on the Waiver Wire?

Paul Maholm (43%) – The average ERA in the National League for starting pitchers this year is 4.20 and the average WHIP is 1.378. Maholm checks in with 4.46 and 1.44 marks, respectively, making him slightly below average and worth a spot in most fantasy leagues. He has notched a Quality Start in four of his last six outings. He has neither the upside nor downside of Detwiler and is more likely to deliver a useful fantasy outing in his remaining starts.

Stock Up

Brett Anderson, Athletics

Oakland’s 21 year-old rookie was plenty good during the first half of the 2009 season, but he has ascended into elite territory since the Midsummer Classic:

1st Half: 87.1 IP, 6.6 K/9, 2.78 BB/9
2nd Half: 77.1 IP, 8.7 K/9, 2.21 BB/9

Anderson’s uptick in performance coincided with an increase in velocity:

Anderson’s fastball and slider velocity, by month:

April: 91 MPH for the fastball, 82.7 MPH for the slider
May: 91.4, 82.4
June 92.6, 83.8
July: 93.6, 85
August: 93, 84.2
September: 93.4, 84.2

Anderson’s souped-up fastball hasn’t been dominant (-0.61 runs/100 pitches for the year), but that mid-80’s slider has been deadly (+2.79 runs/100, best in the majors). What makes the pitch so wicked? It may be the unusual depth and bite on the offering. Anderson’s slider drops in the zone 3.4 inches more than a pitch thrown without spin. By comparison, the average lefty slider has +1.7 inches of vertical movement (rising 1.7 inches more than a pitch thrown without spin).

Howie Kendrick, Angels

Optioned to AAA Salt Lake in June, Kendrick has returned to the majors with a vengeance. His second-half surge (.385/.409/.594 in 149 PA) owes something to an obscene .430 BABIP, but Howie (or is it Howard?) is hammering the ball with a .209 ISO since the break. Overall, Kendrick has a .344 wOBA and a .153 ISO, both career bests. He’s still a free swinger who rarely draws a free pass (4.9 BB%), but the former top prospect has gradually tightened his zone while making more contact:

2007: 40.1 O-Swing%, 75.6 Contact%
2008: 36.6 O-Swing%, 76.2 Contact%
2009: 32.4 O-Swing%, 80.3 Contact%

(the MLB averages are 25% and 81%, respectively)

Scott Feldman, Rangers

With 5.3 K/9 and 2.85 BB/9, Feldman has been more solid rotation cog (4.59 Expected Fielding Independent ERA) than the breakout ace that his ERA (3.62) or win total (17) would suggest. However, the 26 year-old has undergone one drastic transformation over the past few seasons.

Prior to the 2008 season, Feldman was essentially a ROOGY (Right-Handed One Out Guy), a somewhat pejorative term used to describe righty relievers who get pummeled by southpaw batters. His side-arm motion generated lots of groundballs (58 GB% from 2005-2007), but his opportunities against opposite-handed batters were limited.

He switched release points and jobs in ’08, moving into the rotation. Feldman’s peripherals (4.4 K/9, 3.33 BB/9, 5.25 XFIP) weren’t all that special. In 2009, Feldman has changed his pitching approach. He tossed a fastball 63.5% of the time in ’08, but he has thrown a heater just 44.9% this season.

In place of the conventional fastball, Feldman is relying heavily upon a 90 MPH cutter (thrown 33% of the time). The pitch has been extremely effective, with a value of +2.94 runs per 100 pitches. That figure may be inflated a little by Feldman’s good fortune of balls put in play (the run values are results-based, so a low BABIP or HR/FB rate could influence the pitch values), but that cutter has helped him battle southpaws. Lefties lashed Scott for a .846 OPS in 2008 (17 percent worse than the league average), but just a .623 OPS in 2009 (38 percent better than the league average).

Felipe Lopez, Brewers

Coming off of a pair of tepid seasons at the plate (.295 wOBA in 2007, .320 in 2008), Lopez had to settle for a 1-year, $3.5M deal with the Diamondbacks over the winter. Without question, Felipe was one of the best bargains on the free agent market, accumulating 4.6 WAR between the D-Backs and the Brewers. That production is worth roughly $20-$21M.

Lopez has been fortunate, with a .364 BABIP this year. According to this expected BABIP calculator, the switch-hitter should have a BABIP around .333. That would make his .312/.382/.433 line something closer to .281/.351/.402. That still equates to a wOBA of about .345, besting his work during a nomadic stretch that saw Lopez roam through Cincinnati, Washington and St. Louis. Lopez’s walk rate this season is up to 10.1% (8.1 and 8.2% in ’07 and ’08).

Robinson Tejeda, Royals

When your club can’t see first place with the aid of the Keck Telescopes, September baseball can be a drag. But there is one perk associated with being woefully out of contention: the chance to evaluate players in expanded roles.

Case in point: Robinson Tejeda. For most of his pro career, Tejeda has thrown really, really hard (94.3 MPH in 2009) toward the general vicinity of home plate. However, the former Ranger and Phillie has shown about as much control as Dayton Moore near an expensive, low-OBP position player (5.11 BB/9 career).

So far, Tejeda has taken to the rotation better than expected. In four starts spanning 22.1 innings, Robinson has posted a 24/10 K/BB ratio, with a microscopic 0.81 ERA. The 27 year-old has, of course, been exceptionally lucky on balls in play (.170 BABIP as a starter).

But, Tejeda has retained his velocity battling lineups multiple times (94.5 MPH), while garnering plenty of outside swings (33.3%, 25% MLB average) and posting a low contact rate (73.7%, 81% MLB average). It’s just four starts, so no conclusions can really be drawn. Still, Tejeda at least gives Royals fans something to focus on while waiting for Billy Butler‘s next AB or Zack Greinke’s next start.

Stock Down

Freddy Sanchez, Giants

The Pirates received plenty of backlash from fans and the local press for trading Sanchez, a respected community member and a decent second baseman when healthy, to the Giants this past summer. That venom aimed at the organization didn’t take into account that the 31 year-old might just be breaking down physically.

Courtesy of Sportsnet, here’s Sanchez’s sizeable list of ailments since the beginning of the 2007 season:

Sep 7, 2009: Missed 19 games (left shoulder injury).
Aug 25, 2009: Left shoulder injury, 15-day DL.
Aug 18, 2009: Left shoulder injury, day-to-day.
Aug 2, 2009: Missed 5 games (sore left knee).
Jul 27, 2009: Sore left knee, day-to-day.
Jul 10, 2009: Missed 6 games (back injury).
Jul 3, 2009: Back injury, day-to-day.
Sep 13, 2008: Missed 1 game (eye injury).
Sep 12, 2008: Eye injury, day-to-day.
Aug 3, 2008: Missed 5 games (back spasms).
Jul 28, 2008: Back spasms, day-to-day.
Apr 14, 2008: Missed 1 game (right shoulder injury).
Apr 13, 2008: Right shoulder injury, day-to-day.
Apr 5, 2008: Missed 1 game (right shoulder injury).
Apr 4, 2008: Right shoulder injury, day-to-day.
Oct 1, 2007: Missed the last 5 games of the regular season (shoulder injury).
Sep 26, 2007: Shoulder injury, day-to-day.
Jun 19, 2007: Missed 3 games (flu).
Jun 15, 2007: Flu, day-to-day.
Apr 26, 2007: Missed 1 game (eye injury).
Apr 25, 2007: Eye injury, day-to-day.
Apr 18, 2007: Missed 1 game (left wrist injury).
Apr 17, 2007: Left wrist injury, day-to-day.
Apr 7, 2007: Missed 5 games (sprained knee).
Mar 31, 2007: Sprained knee, 15-day DL.

Shoulder and knee maladies have proven especially troublesome. Sanchez is largely the same aggressive, high-contact hitter with just a smidge of extra-base power. However, he has posted the highest K rate of his career (16.6 K%), and his percentage of contact within the strike zone (89.7 percent) is below the 92-96% range he hovered around from 2005-2008 (88% MLB average).

Joba Chamberlain, Yankees

Chamberlain’s first year as a full-time starter has not gone as smoothly as Yankee fans or fantasy owners would have liked, as the former Cornhusker has posted a mediocre 4.70 XFIP in 146.2 IP. The big righty, who turns 23 tomorrow, has missed a decent number of bats (7.61 K/9). However, his control has lagged behind.

Joba has posted a paltry 54.9 First-Pitch Strike%, compared to the 58% major league average. His hard mid-80’s slider (+0.98 runs/100) and high-70’s curve (+0.3 runs/100) have fooled hitters, but Chamberlain’s 92.5 MPH gas has often been torched (-1.15 runs/100).

The 6-2, 230 pounder’s struggles will likely spur more unwarranted discussion of his long-term role, but it’s important to keep in mind that Chamberlain is still very young and is surely capable of better in the rotation in the years to come. It’s extremely difficult to conjure up an argument for pushing him to the ‘pen.

Nick Markakis, Orioles

The 25 year-old Markakis remains a valuable commodity, but it’s hard not to be let down by his 2009 campaign. Over his first three seasons in the majors, Markakis made steady offensive improvement:

2006: 8.1 BB%, .346 wOBA
2007: 8.7 BB%, .366 wOBA
2008: 14.3 BB%, .389 wOBA

The lefty batter was an on-base fiend last year, swinging at just 18 percent of pitches thrown out of the strike zone. This year, Markakis has chased 23.4% of pitches off the dish. His walk rate has nearly been cut in half (7.5 BB%), with his wOBA falling back down to his rookie level (.345 wOBA). After posting ISO’s of .185 in each of 2007 and 2008, Markakis has compiled a .156 mark this year (again, right around his rookie production of .157).

Fausto Carmona, Indians

In late May, we took a gander at the apocalyptic path Carmona’s career has taken since his banner 2007 season. He pitched 215 frames, posted a sub-four FIP and generated a huge number of worm-burners (64.3 GB%) with his low-to-mid-90’s sinker.

Since that massive increase in workload (he pitched 74.2 major league innings in 2006), Carmona has been a train wreck. He walked 5.22 batters per nine innings in 2008, and has actually shown slightly worse control in 2009 (5.37 BB/9). While still a groundball pitcher, Carmona isn’t posting the same kind of extreme rates (54.2 GB% in 2009). His sinker has gone from a plus pitch to possibly the worst in the big leagues:

Carmona’s runs/100 pitches value with his sinker:

2007: +0.57
2008: -0.15
2009: -2.26

Suffice it to say, that’s a problem when Fausto still tosses a sinker nearly three-quarters of the time (73% in 2009). Carmona’s percentage of pitches in the strike zone has fallen from 51.4% in 2007 to a lousy 44.9% in 2009 (49-50% MLB average). It’s sad to say, but the 25 year-old has turned into the A.L.’s answer to Daniel Cabrera.

Milton Bradley, Cubs

Though some Chicago columnists may claim otherwise, Bradley probably isn’t responsible for global warming, the collapse of Lehman Brothers and stalled health care legislation. That being said, the 31 year-old switch-hitter’s first year in the Friendly Confines has been anything but amicable. The Cubs suspended Bradley for the rest of the 2009 season, though the MLBPA is considering filing a grievance.

If Milton has indeed played his final game this season, he ends up with a disappointing .345 wOBA that pales in comparison to his .405 mark in 2007 and .423 figure in 2008. Bradley was still extremely patient (14.4 BB%), but his pop was nowhere to be found. His ISO, .239 in ’07 and .242 in ’08, plunged to .140 with the Cubs.

Bradley didn’t hit the DL, but he missed time with groin, calf and knee problems. He continued to crush fastballs (+1.21 runs/100) and sliders (+0.85), but he was downright Pedro Cerrano-like against curveballs (-2.84 runs/100) and changeups (-0.85). He’s owed $9M in 2010 and $12M in 2011.

We’re hitting the final stretch of the 2009 season and most fantasy baseball leagues are entering, or have entered, playoff mode. There are 10 games on tap for this evening. Let’s dive into some links before the action begins…

Fantasy Baseball Junkie has a look at the most balanced statistical producers in this year’s fantasy baseball class — hitters and pitchers who covered a range of categories and still posted high all-around numbers. Torii Hunter, Justin Upton, Matt Kemp, Hunter Pence, and Albert Pujols top the list of batters, while Josh Johnson, Matt Cain, Roy Halladay, Felix Hernandez, and Johan Santana covered a wide range of statistics as fantasy pitchers.

Jeremy Kempter of SB Nation’s FakeTeams profiles the Rays’ Jeremy Hellickson for keeper league purposes. The 22-year-old right-hander posted a 9-2 record, 2.45 ERA, 0.88 WHIP, .178 BAA, and collected 132 strikeouts in 114 innings this season at Triple-A Durham. “And this isn’t a one-year fluke,” writes Kempter. “In five minor league seasons, he’s got a 37-13 mark, 2.71 ERA, 1.02 WHIP, 507 K’s and 100 BB’s in 461 innings.”

Derek Ambrosino of The Hardball Times reviews Yahoo’s 2009 preseason Top 100. His conclusion? “The pre-ranks are not particularly accurate. Overall, only 51 of its projected top 100 actually finished in the top 100. ” It’s often better to go with your gut, trust your research, and work the waiver wire with ferocity than it is to trust the rankings of these huge fantasy services.

Baseball Prospectus’ Geoff Young analyzes Raul Ibanez’s career first- and second-half offensive splits, and then compares them to this season. “He played over his head for 50 games and then regressed to the [old] Ibanez,” Young concludes. “It happens. Just because he was one of the best hitters in baseball for a third of the season doesn’t mean he’s one of the best hitters in baseball, period.”

The fellas over at Razball have a few Monday observations, including praise for Padres starter Kevin Correia, who threw seven shutout innings on Sunday afternoon. The 29-year-old right-hander isn’t big on strikeouts, but has a 4.08 ERA and a win-loss record above .500 on a bad San Diego team.

Have a link, question or comment you’re dying to get off your chest? Send it over to me in an e-mail or find me on Twitter.

Here is the latest update to Week 25 two-start pitchers. Again this list is subject to change going forward.

Pitchers not listed on last update

HOU – Rodriguez
DET – Jackson
CHC – Wells
TEX – Millwood
CIN – Cueto
ARI – Davis
BOS – Wakefield
MIL – Bush
TEX – McCarthy
CHW – Carrasco

Pitchers no longer scheduled for two starts

BOS – Beckett
CHC – Marquis
CHW – Floyd
CLE – Laffey
TEX – Nippert
ARI – Buckner

Rodriguez has two home starts against pitchers coming off injury/illness this week. Perhaps no elite pitcher has a bigger home/road split than Rodriguez. In Minute Maid Park, he is 8-2 with a 1.58 ERA and a 0.979 WHIP. In road starts Rodriguez is 5-8 with a 4.03 ERA and a 1.440 WHIP.

Jackson has allowed five earned runs in back-to-back starts. In his last five games he has a 6.03 ERA yet has gone 2-2 in that stretch.

Wells has also given up five runs in back-to-back starts but in the former outing, four of those were unearned. In his last eight starts, Wells has allowed five-or-more runs four times. He is 2-5 in those eight outings but his ERA is a respectable 3.83 in that stretch.

Millwood is 10-10 this season. Since 2004, he is exactly 63-63. This year the average ERA in the American League is 4.45 and since 2004 Millwood checks in with a 4.38 mark. Despite that average-ness, Millwood is enjoying a fortunate season in 2009. His 4.91 FIP is a career high while his 78.5 percent strand rate is the second-highest of his career.

Cueto had his start last week pushed back due to the flu and is now scheduled to go Tuesday against the Pirates. He finally broke a six-game losing streak on the last day of August and in his last three games before getting ill, Cueto had a 2.76 ERA with 17 strikeouts in 16.1 innings.

Davis has received two runs or less of support in 12 of his 31 games, which helps explain his 7-13 record despite a 4.01 ERA. He has five Quality Starts in his last seven games, yet is 0-3 in that stretch.

Wakefield is scheduled for two starts this week in his first action since receiving a cortisone injection in his spine on September 10th. The veteran knuckleball pitcher had been experiencing weakness in both his back and legs the past few weeks.

Bush is tied with Cueto for the major league lead with 14 HBP. It is even more impressive when you consider that Bush missed over two months with a torn triceps muscle. He does not even have enough innings to show up on the FanGraphs leader boards. Five times this season, Bush has hit multiple batters in a game, including plunking three hitters in an April game versus Pittsburgh.

McCarthy has been unimpressive in three starts since recovering from a stress fracture in his right shoulder. He has limited batters to a .203 average in those three games but has a 5.17 ERA. Two starts ago it was the long ball which did McCarthy in, as he gave up two homers in 6.1 innings against Cleveland. In his last outing he allowed seven baserunners in three innings against Oakland.

Carrasco has just one start this season for the White Sox, but is 5-1 with a 3.24 ERA as a reliever. His primary pitch is a cutter, although he also throws a four-seam fastball and a slider. Carrasco is not a good pickup for his two starts, as he has not exceeded four innings nor 67 pitches in an outing this season.

Since the Tampa Bay (then Devil) Rays selected him with the second overall pick in the 2002 amateur draft, B.J. Upton has displayed every ingredient necessary to become a five-tool superstar at the major league level.

The 25 year-old has shown excellent plate discipline (12.1 BB% in 2007, 15.4% in 2008). Upton has unleashed feats of strength that belie his lithe 6-3, 185 pound frame, including 24 home runs in 2007 and a 2008 post season (7 HR, .652 SLG%) that appeared to solidify his status as a star. He swiped in excess of 40 bases in 2008, and has a chance at doing so again this season. You name a skill, and B.J. has shown it at one point or another.

Defensively, Upton has acclimated himself very well to center field (11.2 UZR/150 in ’09, nearly identical to his work in ’08). That range has helped keep him a viable starter (1.9 WAR). But why is it that, as the 2009 season comes to a close, B.J. has been one of the worst hitters in baseball?

In 2007 and 2008, Upton posted wOBA’s of .387 and .354, respectively. This year, that mark has plummeted to just .298. Among batters taking at least 500 trips to the plate, Upton has the fourth-worst wOBA in the game. Only light-swinging middle infielders Edgar Renteria, David Eckstein and Orlando Cabrera have provided less value with the lumber. Per Batting Runs (a park-adjusted measure of offensive production), Upton has gone from +27.2 runs above average in 2007 and +15.3 in ’08 to a wheezing -13.2 in 2009.

While he won’t be confused with Jeff Francoeur any time soon, Upton has been less patient at the plate. His walk rate has dipped to nine percent, down considerably from the aforementioned marks in ’07 and ’08.

Upton swung at roughly 17 percent of pitches thrown outside of the strike zone between 2007 and 2008. That figure is up a bit, to slightly over 19 percent this season (still well below the 25% MLB average). Upton is also offering at fewer pitches within the strike zone as well, taking a cut at roughly 66 percent of in-zone offerings from 2007-2008 and about 64 percent in 2009 (66% MLB average). There’s nothing overly alarming about these trends, but chasing more balls and taking more strikes is never a happy development.

From a batted-ball standpoint, Upton’s rate of line drives hit is down considerably. It’s important to keep in mind that the line drive/fly ball distinction is a subjective one made by the official scorer (and the rate at which liners are coded varies greatly by stadium). That being said, B.J.’s liner rate has fallen from over 19 percent from 2007-2008 to 14.1 percent in 2009. Again using a 500 PA cut off, Upton has the lowest LD% among all batters.

Where have those liners gone? Upton has greatly increased his rate of fly balls hit. B.J. hit a fly ball 37.6% of the time in 2007 and 30.6% in 2008, but that figure is up to 41.2% this year. While fly balls have a lower batting average on balls in play than grounders, lofting the ball into the air is obviously a positive trend in terms of hitting for power (fly balls hit in the A.L. in 2009 have a .603 slugging percentage).

Well, hitting more fly balls is usually a positive trend. Upton just hasn’t done much with those fly balls this season. His home run/fly ball rate, 19.8% in ’07 and 7.4% in ’08, is just 6.7% in 2009. That puts B.J. in the same company as Andy LaRoche and Vernon Wells. Upton slugged .952 on fly balls hit in 2007 and .534 in 2008. In 2009? He’s slugging just .396.

When Upton has taken a pitcher deep, he’s not clearing the fence by much, either. Courtesy of Greg Rybarczyk’s Hit Tracker Online, we can see that B.J.’s homers don’t pack as much punch.

Hit Tracker records, among other things, the “Standard Distance” of a home run. This essentially tells us how far the ball would have traveled if it had been hit with no wind, at a 70 degree temperature and at sea level. By factoring out wind, temperature and altitude, Standard Distance attempts to put HR distance on equal footing across stadiums. Here are Upton’s Standard Distances over the past three years:

2007: 394.7
2008: 406.7
2009: 387.5

(The A.L. average Standard Distance in 2009 is 394.7)

In terms of pitch selection, B.J. has scuffled against every type except curveballs. Upton has never had much problem with yellow hammers (+1.18 runs/100 pitches in 2009, +1.15 career). Sliders continue to stifle him, however (-1.8 runs/100 in ’09, -0.67 career). And, his performance versus changeups has taken several steps back (-0.92 runs/100, +0.82 career). Upton’s fall against fastballs has been quite dramatic:

Runs/100 value vs. fastballs, 2007-2009

2007: +1.87
2008: +0.02
2009: -0.24

Overall, Upton has been somewhat unlucky this season. Using this expected BABIP tool from The Hardball Times (which takes a hitter’s AB’s, HR, K’s, SB, LD%, fly balls, pop ups and grounders to give a more accurate measure of XBABIP), B.J.’s XBABIP is .331, compared to his actual .304 mark. Even if all of those extra hits were singles, that would bring his line up from .231/.301/.359 to .258/.328/.386.

Still, that’s a far cry from what many had predicted, myself included. I’m left wondering if Upton has ever been truly healthy in 2009. He was hampered by a sore ankle earlier this month. And, more importantly, Upton openly admits that the off-season shoulder surgery which sidelined him in spring training and early April remains an issue.

Upton’s 2009 campaign has surely been a bitter pill to swallow for owners who expended a high draft pick on him. However, it’s not time to abandon ship. Despite the aggravating season, B.J. is just 25 years old and has already achieved a high degree of success in the big leagues. Given an off-season to mend his aching body, Upton could be a relative bargain in 2010. It would be a shame if such a talent continued to be held back by physical ailments.

The talents of Tampa Bay Rays southpaw David Price are undeniable. The Vanderbilt product slings low-to-mid-90’s gas with seeming ease, overwhelming hitters with a deadly combination of speed and movement.

During what some might consider a “disappointing” 2009 campaign, Price has punched out nearly seven-and-a-half hitters per nine innings, with slightly less than four walks per nine frames. Home runs have been a legitimate issue for Tampa’s prized arm (1.23 HR/9, with an average 11.5 home run/fly ball rate), but his Fielding Independent ERA sits at 4.57. For a guy who recently turned 24, in his first year as a starter in the big leagues, in the DH league and the cut-throat A.L. East, a league-average FIP is nothing to be ashamed of.

That aforementioned heater has been Price’s bread-and-butter. He has tossed a fastball over 73 percent of the time, with an average velocity of 93.1 MPH. The pitch has been effective if not spectacular, with a value of +0.37 runs per 100 fastballs thrown. Price’s vaunted mid-80’s slider, on the other hand, might as well be on the side of a milk carton.

While his work from 2008 covers just 14 regular-season innings and came in relief (making this an apples-to-oranges comparison), Price tossed a slider slightly over 30% of the time in the ‘pen last year, with a run value of +0.94 per 100 pitches. In its 2009 Prospect Handbook, Baseball America dubbed Price’s slider a “plus-plus” pitch, “reminiscent of John Smoltz’s with its depth and 87-88 MPH velocity.” That’s awfully high praise, considering how wicked Smoltz’s slider has been over the years (+2.19 runs/100 career).

In 2009? Price has chucked a hard breaking ball just slightly more than 18 percent of the time, with a grisly -2.13/100 pitch run value. Among starters throwing at least 100 innings, Price has the lowest slider run value in the business (Justin Verlander, Brian Bannister and Aaron Cook are listed as having worse values, but they essentially never throw the pitch).

The 6-6, 225 pound lefty’s struggles with his slider manifest in higher contacts rates than one might expect from a power-armed prospect. Against Price’s pitches thrown within the strike zone, opposing batters have put the bat on the ball 86.4 percent of the time (87.8% MLB average). On pitches thrown out of the zone, hitters have made contact 72.1 percent (61.8% MLB average).

Presumably, a decent portion of those outside offerings are breaking pitches that hitters are either fouling off or putting in play (and, given his run value, often loudly). The list of pitchers with the highest O-Contact percentages is flooded with soft-tossing, pitch-to-contact types like Jeremy Sowers, Livan Hernandez and Jamie Moyer. Not exactly the sort of company one would expect Price to be keeping.

David Price, in his current form, is still a pretty decent pitcher in the DH league. But in order for him to transform into the dominant force that scouts envisioned, he is going to have to rediscover his slider. Big league hitters are too talented for a starter to combat them with one, non-knuckling offering.

Everyone is happy when one of their pitchers is scheduled for two starts in a week. But that is not always a good thing. Here are five pitchers you may be on the fence about (or should be on the fence) putting into your lineup for Week 25.

Joe Blanton – In the second of back-to-back starts versus the Nationals, Blanton rebounded from allowing eight runs to pitch six shutout innings. This week he faces two teams he has not seen recently, with both starts coming on the road. While the gopher ball has been a problem this season for Blanton, he has allowed them in bunches both home and away. If you have the depth to sit Blanton, consider giving him this week off.

David Purcey – This season has been a rough go for Purcey so far, but he has favorable matchups this week. He has two home starts and does not go up against a top pitcher in either outing. First up is the Orioles, who have struggled this year versus southpaws. Next are the Mariners, making the cross-country trek. I like his chances to post a win this week and Purcey is someone to consider picking up from the waiver wire, as he is owned in only six percent of CBS Sports leagues.

Ryan Rowland-Smith – The strikeouts may be inconsistent, but Rowland-Smith has otherwise been a reliable pitcher lately. He has authored a Quality Start in each of his last five outings, with a 2.89 ERA and a 1.098 WHIP. Yet during this hot streak, Rowland-Smith has two losses and a no-decision. On top of that, he has two starts this week in the Eastern time zone. Expect one really bad outing and put him on the bench this week.

Joe Saunders – On June 24th, Saunders was 8-4 and on top of the world, continuing to confound the experts who predicted a collapse due to weak peripherals. And then it all came crashing down. In his next eight starts, Saunders went 1-3 with a 9.63 ERA and the experts just nodded their heads, welcoming the regression they spent nearly two years predicting. But in his last five games, Saunders is back to his winning ways. He is 4-0 with a 2.10 ERA since returning from a trip to the disabled list due to tightness in his shoulder. I do not care if it goes against all statistical common sense, I make sure Saunders is active for his two home starts this week. Maybe he is the exception that proves the rule.

Barry Zito has 12 consecutive starts in which he’s allowed three earned runs or fewer, with a 2.36 ERA in that span. He lowered his overall ERA from 5.01 to 3.94. Zito is also picking up a few more strikeouts lately. In his last outing he fanned nine in seven innings. Earlier in the season Zito was pitching much better at home but he has closed the gap considerably. Start him this week with one home and one road game.

Other scheduled two-start pitchers in Week 25 are listed below. Please remember that these are projected pitchers and changes can and will happen between now and next week.

Greinke, Beckett, J. Johnson, Cain, Marquis, Pineiro, Floyd, Pettitte, Lowe, de la Rosa, Kuroda, Blackburn, Looper, Laffey, Tillman, L. Hernandez, LeBlanc, Tallet, Nippert, McCutchen, Gorzelanny, Misch, Buckner, Mujica, E. Gonzalez, DiNardo.

Check back Sunday for an update of two-start pitchers.

Now, I would like to take a step back and provide some accountability for previous picks. There needs to be a two-week time lag because last week’s pitchers have yet to complete their second start. So here are my selections for Week 23 and how they did.

Bailey – Advised to start. 3.27 ERA, 12 Ks, 1.91 WHIP (2 starts)
Mock – Advised to start. 7.20 ERA, 4 Ks, 1.80 WHIP (1)
Richard – Advised to start. 9.00 ERA, 11 Ks, 1.67 WHIP (2)
Romero – Advised to sit. W, 4.97 ERA, 8 Ks, 1.82 WHIP (2)
Sonnanstine – Advised to sit. 19.64 ERA, 2 Ks, 2.45 WHIP (1)

The third base position in Cincinnati has been a busy place in 2009. Edwin Encarnacion began the year as the club’s starter before injuries and a subsequent trade to Toronto ended his storyline. Other players such as Adam Rosales, Drew Sutton, and Paul Janish have also spent time there, although the latter’s batting average of .217 tops the trio.

The trade of Encarnacion was made to bring in veteran Scott Rolen, a good defensive player who was having a solid offensive season with Toronto. Since coming back to the National League, Rolen has hit just .263/.342/.364 in 114 at-bats, and he was slowed with post-concussion symptoms after a beaning in one of his first games with the Reds.

Rolen is signed to a hefty contract for 2010 – and the Reds also paid a large price in young arms for him – so he’ll be the everyday guy next year, if healthy. That leaves the status of two upper-level third base prospects in limbo. Both Todd Frazier and Juan Francisco are near-MLB-ready. In fact, Francisco was called up to the Majors in September.

Both players began the year in double-A. Francisco spent the majority of time at the hot corner. He hit .281/.317/.501 with 22 homers in 437 at-bats. The left-handed hitter was then promoted to triple-A where he hit .359/.384/.598 with another five homers in 92 at-bats. That earned him his first big-league shot. On the downside of Francisco’s numbers, the 22-year-old prospect walked just 4.3% of the time in 2009, which sadly is a career high for him. A rate like that (along with a K rate of 22%) will not translate into much success in the Majors, regardless of how well he’s done in the minors. Francisco’s glove at third base also begs for the DH role in the National League.

Frazier moved to the outfield to accommodate Francisco in double-A in ’09. He’s also seen time at second base. His best position, though, remains third base. The 23-year-old prospect hit .290/.350/.481 with 40 doubles in 451 at-bats in double-A. A late-season promotion to triple-A resulted in a line of .302/.362/.476 with another five doubles in 63 at-bats. Overall, he also slugged 16 homes. His walk rate of 8.6% is not great, but it’s double what Francisco had to offer. Frazier’s strikeout rate was also about 10% lower than his teammate’s.

Neither player will see much time at the hot corner in Cincinnati in 2010, barring an injury to Rolen. Both players are still young, though, and someone will likely have to take over in 2011. The safer bet for that job would be Frazier as he is a better overall hitter and fielder. Francisco potentially has a higher upside but the walk rate is a huge concern, as the only big leaguers with a similar walk rate and strikeout rate are Clint Barmes of the Rockies and Aaron Rowand of the Giants.

Frazier could be a valuable player for the Reds, as well as fantasy managers, in 2010. He has a solid approach that leads to excellent gap power (that could easily turn into HR power with more experience) and he has the potential to hit for a solid average. His defensive versatility would also make him a flexible resource at numerous positions (2B, 3B, OF). Francisco’s three straight 20+ homer seasons may be more enticing, but Frazier remains the safer bet.

When Brian Fuentes was signed by the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim to replace their record-breaking closer of old, they brought in an unconventional (read: non-fireballing) closer. Fuentes doesn’t do it with speed on his fastball (90 MPH), but rather with a funky delivery that produces three average- to above-average pitches.

But Fuentes is certainly having issues this year. His career high 11.78 K/9 was not sustainable last year, but his current 7.82 K/9 is down almost a quarter from his career 9.99 K/9.

There are little differences here and there in his repertoire beyond the curveball (which he’s pretty much given up on – he doesn’t use it and it’s lost over five inches of movement). His slider velocity is a little down (75.7 MPH) from its regular spot (77.4 MPH), but he’s been effective at that velocity before. Perhaps his changeup gaining velocity (74 MPH, up from 72.6 MPH) could be seen as a negative, but it’s only a slight bump.

Way down in the pitch f/x data, there’s a change that may be significant, however. Fuentes has lost almost three and a half inches of vertical movement on his slider. As his second-most used pitch, that seems important. It’s probably the reason he’s lost five runs worth of effectiveness on that pitch and almost 25% of his strikeout rate.

Queue Mike Scioscia creating a controversy by talking about Kevin Jepsen and the closer role. “If there are some matches that could be advantageous [with Jepsen], we will try to take advantage of [them],” Scioscia said to MLB.com. So far Scioscia has replaced Fuentes with Jepsen four times in a save opportunity, and brought out Jepsen to start the ninth twice. Who is this newcomer? Does he have staying power? Is this a full-blown closer controversy?

Jepsen does own the blazing fastball of a traditional closer (96.4 MPH this year), and with his two primary pitches coming down the pipe over 90 MPH (he owns a 90 MPH cutter that’s been worth 2.5 runs this year) he is a decent change of pace from Fuentes.

In fact, Jepsen profiles very differently from Fuentes in other ways. Fuentes is more of a fly-baller (46.9% fly balls), while Jepsen is inducing ground balls in bunches this year (58.6% ground balls). Jepsen is doing a great job supressing line drives (13.6%), and batters are centering Fuentes better (17.5%).

So Jepsen has more velocity, strikes out as many batters, induces more ground balls and is walking three-quarters of a batter fewer than Fuentes? Sounds like he should be closing.

The note of caution with Jepsen comes from his walk rate. While it’s currently nice (2.74) it was consistently over four per nine in the minors. If the control goes again, Scioscia will be glad he kept Fuentes in the role at least nominally. He can always use Jepsen to come in and induce a ground ball if Fuentes doesn’t have it any given night.