Repeat after me: 15 innings is not a significant sample size. This much we know. But three starts and fifteen innings in, much of baseball is still looking at John Smoltz and trying to figure out what’s left in the tank. Let’s join in, shall we?

The ‘normal’ stats that measure rate will fail us, but they do tell a story. His pinpoint control is still there – his 1.80 walks per nine would only count as his fourth-best full season if he kept it up, and it is right in line with his 2.63 career rate. The strikeout rate is the problem: at six Ks per nine, he’s well off his 7.97 career rate. The 54% strand rate and the .382 BABIP are blips on the radar, but if he can’t get the K-rate back up, he’ll be in trouble.

He’s been to this rodeo before. He had elbow surgeries in 1994, 1998, 2000, 2002 and 2005. The one in 2000 was of the Tommy John variety. Not surprisingly, he’s seen strikeout dips of this magnitude in 1999 and 2005 after his other surgeries. And he’s seen many rebounds in his strikeout rate as well. Will he rebound this year? Let’s take a look at the pitch f/x data so far this year.

He’s lost some velocity, but going from 92.5 MPH on his fastball to 91.5 MPH shouldn’t rob him of all of his effectiveness. The slider going from 87 MPH in 2007 to 84.8 MPH is a little more worrisome, and that’s why his vaunted slider (worth over 20 runs in 2006 and 2007) is only worth 1.7 runs this year. But people are still swinging at 38% of his pitches outside the zone so the movement is possibly more important than the velocity.

Amazingly, the movement is mostly there. His fastball is moving exactly the same as it did in 2007, and he uses it about as much as he did before (over 40%), so at least 40% of his pitches are moving about the same. The changeup has retained its velocity and its horizontal movement, but has lost about an inch-plus of vertical drop since 2007. Maybe because it’s the secondary pitch that has retained its velocity and movement best, he’s begun using it a little more – all the way up to 19.8% this year (11.3% career).

But the slider. Ah, the slider. The slider has not only lost two-and-a-half miles per hour since 2007, but it’s also lost an inch-and-a-half of vertical drop. And there’s the rub. That’s fifteen innings of reduced movement and velocity in a Hall of Fame pitch. The Smoltz slider that has racked up over 200 wins, 150 saves, and a .789 postseason winning percentage – that slider is currently missing.

From reviewing his game charts from 2007, it looks like he’s had some temporary loss of movement in his slider before. Unfortunately, it looks like he lost much of that movement late in 2007, so it could have been when he was wearing down. If he’s missing that movement now, early in the season, it may bode poorly for him. For now though, repeat after me: 15 innings is not a significant sample size.

Hopefully you were able to pick up Adam LaRoche and trade Derek Lowe last week. But even if you stood pat there are still plenty of acquisition targets and trade bait guys out there for you. So, here are five guys to pick up and five guys to move.

Obtain

Andre Ethier – With Manny Ramirez in the lineup, Ethier had a .317/.438/.558 line. Once Ramirez was suspended, Ethier’s numbers fell to .222/.293/.438. But as you may have heard, Manny is back now and hopefully Ethier’s production picks up, too. Ethier is also being slowed by a .264 BABIP. His lifetime mark in the category is .323 and he had a .336 mark last season.

Charlie Morton – He has been very productive in Triple-A the past two seasons but struggled last year during his MLB debut. He fell behind Tommy Hanson and others in the Braves pecking order but now has a new lease on life in Pittsburgh. Morton averages 91.6 with his fastball and he complements that with both a slider and a changeup. He throws ground balls, keeps the ball in the park and gets a few more strikeouts than you might expect. Morton has a 5.82 K/9, which while lower than his minor league numbers, is consistent with the 5.79 K/9 he put up in 16 games with Atlanta last season.

Martin Prado – Atlanta’s super sub has not fallen off since taking over the full-time second base job. In his last 10 starts, Prado has a .405/.457/.667 line. He has third base eligibility from last year and depending on your league settings, he might qualify at 1B (19) and 2B (14), too. Prado’s BABIP seems high at .329 but he has a lifetime .340 mark in the category.

Ryan Sadowski – The first thing that jumps out at you with the Giants rookie is the 4.17 GB/FB ratio in his first two major league starts. In Triple-A this year he had a 47.6 percent ground ball ratio compared to 29.8 percent fly balls. The Giants rank fifth in the NL in DER with a .703 mark and sixth overall in UZR with a 22.9 rating. And with Juan Uribe taking over at 2B, the Giants have a stronger infield defense than earlier in the season. Sadowski does not have star potential but he could be a nice option to fill out the back of your pitching staff. Scott Ostler in the San Francisco Chronicle had a nice story recently on Sadowski and his path to the majors.

Gordon Beckham – The eighth overall pick in the 2008 draft, Beckham hit 28 homers in 275 at-bats in his junior season at Georgia. After a slow start in the majors, Beckham is batting .405-2-8 in his last 10 games. The big question coming out of college was if Beckham could play SS in the majors. Right now he is settling in as the starting 3B for the White Sox. His power will be nothing special for a 3B but he hit .322 in parts of two seasons in the upper minors and he could be a four-category contributor, with only a limited value in SB.

Exchange

Aaron Rowand – He had a career year in 2007 thanks to a personal-best .348 BABIP. This year he checks in with a .368 mark in the category. In addition to hitting .309, 2007 was such a good year because he hit 27 HR. Rowand should easily top last year’s mark of 13, but updated ZiPS forecasts him to finish with 16. He is not a force in any of the other categories, so trade him while his AVG is flirting with .300

Nick Blackburn – It is tough to succeed consistently while striking out fewer than four batters per game and that is the tightrope that Blackburn walks. Currently, his ERA sits at 2.94 thanks to a 76.3 percent strand rate and a HR/FB mark of 6.5 percent. Right now Blackburn is a plus pitcher in three categories and now is the time to trade him while his value is highest.

Hideki Matsui – After being forced to the bench for eight straight Interleague games, Matsui has been on a mini hot streak, batting .500-3-10 in his last six games. But Matsui’s value is being propped up by a career-best 16.9 percent HR/FB ratio. His .253 ISO is also a career-high and only the third time in his seven-year career he has been over .200 in the category. Matsui has room for improvement in his AVG but is likely to drop off in HR while his R/RBI numbers are nothing special. And since he is limited to DH duty, Matsui faces limits on his playing time, especially if Jorge Posada’s thumb needs extra time off from behind the plate.

Jair Jurrjens – He has lost five of his last six decisions yet Jurrjens has seen his ERA go up only 0.37 runs in that span. But Jurrjens has been a little lucky, too. After allowing a FB% of 26.5 percent last year, in 2009 that number is 40.5 percent. But his HR/FB is 5.4 percent, the eighth-lowest mark in the majors. In addition to the good fortune with homers, Jurrjens has a 75.9 percent strand rate and a .279 BABIP. So, while everyone else focuses on his run support (two runs or fewer in nine of 18 games), be aware that his ERA and WHIP are likely to rise in the coming months.

Michael Cuddyer – ESPN shows Cuddyer on track to hit 27 HR, which would be a career-high for him. He is hitting slightly fewer fly balls than he did last year but the homers are coming thanks to a 17.6 percent HR/FB ratio, which would be (you guessed it) a personal-best.

Stock Up

Brad Penny, Red Sox

A fastball-centric pitcher (throwing his heater nearly 71 percent of the time during his career), Penny saw his 2008 season blow up like a cheap ACME bomb as a shoulder injury robbed him of his cheddar (-1.44 runs/100 fastballs). The 31 year-old reclamation project got off to a rough start in Boston (6 K’s and 11 walks in 17.2 April innings), but Penny has heated up as his fastball has improved. Check out this trend:

Penny’s runs/100 value for his fastball

April: -2.95
May: +0.24
June: +0.82
July: +0.44

Penny’s FIP is down to 4.21 in 2009, with 6.19 K/9 and 2.84 BB/9.

Carl Pavano, Indians

Dave Cameron noted Pavano’s unusually strong performance earlier this season , as the oft-injured tabloid punch line finally made some noise on the field. It was starting to look as though another injury was bothering Carl, as he surrendered a stunning 23 runs in a three-start stretch from June 10th to the 24th. However, Pavano has rebounded to turn in two excellent starts vs. the light-hitting White Sox and A’s (a combined 9 K, 2 BB and 4 R in 13.2 IP). The 33 year-old has an inflated 5.36 ERA in 2009 (the product of a .344 BABIP), but his FIP sits at a stellar 3.74.

Ricky Nolasco, Marlins

After suffering some absurdly high BABIP figures early in the season, Nolasco has been on a roll as of late. Then again, he wasn’t exactly pitching poorly prior to his demotion to AAA:

April: 2.44 K/BB, .393 BABIP
May: 3.75 K/BB, .285 BABIP
June: 6.6 K/BB, .284 BABIP
July: 6.0 K/BB, .214 BABIP

Nolasco’s K rate is up this year (8.72 from 7.88 in 2008), and he’s still been pretty sharp with his control (2.13 BB/9). His FIP checks in at 3.38 (over two runs lower than his 5.42 ERA) after a 12-strikeout mauling of the Pirates on Sunday.

Colby Rasmus, Cardinals

St. Louis’ number one prospect has been pretty aggressive at the dish (5 BB%, with a 51.3 Swing% above the 45% MLB average), but it’s pretty difficult to criticize a 22 year-old with a .204 ISO and a wOBA of .350. The lefty has already accumulated 2.6 Wins Above Replacement during his rookie year, third among all center fielders. Some of that is due to Colby posting out-of-his-mind UZR numbers (+26.9 UZR/150), but he has smacked 10 homers (including 3 already this month). His control of the zone should improve as he gains experience. Rasmus posted a walk rate of nearly 13 percent at AAA Memphis in 2008.

Brandon Inge, Tigers

Freed from the intense physical demands of the catching position, Inge has gone on a power binge that includes 19 big flys and a .374 wOBA. Inge’s .244 ISO is over 80 points above his career average (.162). While it probably wouldn’t be wise to expect this level of lumber production to persist, Inge is a better hitter than his career .239/.308/.401 line would indicate. That line is weighed down by a .199/.260/.330 showing in nearly 1,300 PA’s as a backstop. As a third baseman, Inge is a career .258/.330/.435 batter. That’s about what ZiPS expects from the 32 year-old during the rest of the ’09 season (.250/.331/.433).

Stock Down

Joe Saunders, Angels

A few months back, I wondered just how long Saunders could continue to post a mid-three’s ERA despite a minuscule K rate. Joe’s strikeout totals have trended upward as of late (6.2 K/9 in May and 6.6 K/9 in June), but the extra punchouts have come with more free passes (2.59 BB/9 in May, 3.79 BB/9 in June). Saunders’ ERA now sits at 4.44. According to XFIP (which judges a pitcher based on K’s, BB’s and a normalized HR/FB rate), the lefty has trended south for the 4th straight season. He compiled a 4.58 XFIP in 2006, 4.62 in ’07, 4.75 in ’08 and 5.05 this year. This is basically who Saunders is: an average Joe 4th or 5th starter.

Joba Chamberlain, Yankees

Without revisiting the whole starter/reliever debate (which isn’t much of a debate when one digs deeper), Chamberlain still needs to make strides in terms of being more efficient on the bump. Joba just hasn’t located all the well this season, with 4.36 BB/9. The former Cornhusker has placed just 43.9% of his pitches within the strike zone, well below the 49.2% MLB average. With Joba battling his control, opposing batters have wisely kept the bat on their shoulders. Hitters have swung at just 37.9% of Chamberlain’s pitches (45% MLB average). The 23 year-old has an awfully bright future, but he’s not quite ready for prime time.

Brendan Harris, Twins

It’s a little strange that the Twins have decided to play a lesser defender at a premium position, but Harris has compensated by doing his best Punto impression at the dish (.302 wOBA). The 28 year-old righty batter posted a .341 wOBA as a regular with the Devil Rays in 2007, then turned in a .318 wOBA in his first year with the Twins. In ’09, Harris has barely cracked a .100 ISO (.103), while walking just 6 percent of the time. Breaking stuff has stymied him this year (-1.76 runs/100 pitches against sliders, -0.94 versus curveballs).

Ryan Sweeney, Athletics

With Scott Hairston now in green and gold, Sweeney could find himself relegated to fourth outfielder duty. A former top prospect with the White Sox, Sweeney is now 24 years old. The power some had anticipated developing in his 6-4, 215 pound frame just hasn’t appeared: his career ISO in the majors is .091. Sweeney is a gifted fielder; maybe he’ll develop in a Randy-Winn type whose glove compensates for a lack of punch. But the more likely scenario entails a long career as an extra fly catcher.

Chris Duncan, Cardinals

The fact that Duncan is even playing Major League Baseball is a testament to modern medicine, as he had a prosthetic disc inserted into his back last year. However, the 6-5, 230 pounder appears to have left some of his thump on the operating table. Duncan creamed the ball in 2006 (.296 ISO) and 2007 (.221), but that figure dipped to .117 during an injury-marred 2008 season and hasn’t recovered much in the first half of the year (.139). The 28 year-old hit the ball on the ground just 39.9% of the time in 2007, but that mark has climbed to 50.3% in 2009. Combine Duncan’s less-than-thunderous bat with his normally rocky fielding, and you have a replacement-level player (0.1 WAR).

Here is the latest update to Week 14 two-start pitchers. Again this list is subject to change going forward.

Pitchers not listed on last update

ANA – Lackey
TB – Shields
WSX – Buehrle
CUB – Dempster
ARZ – D. Davis
SEA – Bedard
OAK – Braden
TEX – Padilla
STL – Wellemeyer
OAK – B. Anderson
TOR – Mills

Pitchers from Friday no longer scheduled for two starts

TB – Garza
LAD – Kuroda
WSX – Contreras
SEA – Vargas
OAK – G. Gonzalez
TEX – Holland

Lackey has a career high .337 BABIP and a career low 69 percent strand rate. But he has gone seven or more innings in seven of his last eight starts and has two home starts this week.

Shields also gets two home starts this week. He has 4 W and a 3.18 ERA at Tropicana Field this year. He has very similar rate stats to a year ago but in 2008 he averaged 4.92 runs per game and went 14-8. This year he receives 4.11 runs per game and his record is 6-6.

Buehrle has a .260 BABIP and a 78.4 percent strand rate. That’s led to a 4.09 FIP compared to a 3.09 ERA and an overall record of 8-2 despite HR, SO and BB rates the same or worse as last year’s 15-12, 3.79 ERA season.

Dempster has been unable to repeat the magic from his 2008 season. He is still performing at better than his career averages in most metrics but the 32-year old is a .500 pitcher. His fastball, which was such a good pitch for him last year, checks in at -10.4 according to Pitch Type Values.

Davis gets two home starts which is normally a good thing. But the big lefty is just 1-5 in Chase Field this year, where he has allowed eight of his 11 home runs.

Bedard is slated to return on Tuesday after missing a month with a sore shoulder. He threw a simulated game on Friday and Seattle manager Don Wakamatsu was impressed with the results of the 54-pitch outing.

Braden has gone at least five innings in each of his 17 games this season. He changes speeds, keeps the ball in the park (0.59 HR/9) and does not hurt himself with walks (2.37 BB/9). Braden’s best pitch is his changeup, which has an average speed over 15 mph slower than his fastball and one that checks in with a 7.8 Pitch Type Value.

Padilla is throwing as hard as ever but has the worst strikeout rate of his career. He has a career average of 6.15 SO/9 and last season posted a 6.68 rate. But in 2009 it is down to a 4.86 mark.

Wellemeyer has a .336 BABIP and it is lefty batters doing most of the damage. LHB have a .342/.417/.595 mark against him this year. Batting against Wellemeyer turns the average lefty batter into Prince Fielder. But oddly enough, Fielder has a .200/.333/.200 line against Wellemeyer this season in six at-bats.

Anderson averages 91.8 mph with his fastball but his slider is his best pitch. Anderson throws his slider 31 percent of the time, which would be the sixth-highest figure in MLB if he had enough innings to qualify.

Mills has had good strikeout numbers throughout the minors and in his brief major league career. But he is hardly overpowering, instead he features a changeup as his strikeout pitch. Mills allowed a 43.5 percent fly ball rate at Dunedin last year and it was 48.3 percent when he was promoted to New Hampshire. This year in his brief tenure with Toronto, he has a 74.1 percent fly ball rate.

The dust has settled after a mini-fury of deals for the Pirates, and it looks like a couple young outfielders ended up gaining some playing time. The bad news is that, beyond wunderkind Andrew McCutchen, this outfield is deeply flawed. No matter, let’s see what benefit deep-league managers can mine from the group.

Delwyn Young – In terms of major league experience, the starting right fielder for the Buccs is not yet fully formed. His .280/.360/.404 line represents only 280 big league at-bats. It’s not yet time to close the book on his potential, especially in his 27th year on the planet. With a few notches up in each component of the slash-line, for example, and you’ve suddenly got an outfielder with some speed and some power and an .800 OPS. That’s value, and depending on how deep your league is, it’s time to pounce just on upside alone.

How much upside is left in this right fielder is worth taking a look at. His minor league slash line (.303/.363/.514 in over 3000 plate appearances) shows some slugging ability that he hasn’t really shown in the major leagues. Unfortunately, some of his more recent slugging performances (.571 in AAA in 2007, for example) have been in Las Vegas, which played about 10% in the hitter’s favor from 2006-2008. Shave 10% off that high water mark and you’re right in line with his career minor league production.

In general, Young cut his strikeouts and upped his walks as he advanced in the Dodgers’ minor league system, which can only be seen as a positive. On the flip side, however, he was old for every station, as he signed at 20 and hit AA at 23 years old. With 28 steals against 18 caught stealings, Young doesn’t show much stolen base capability despite some okay speed scores in the minors (5.1 and 5.5 in his last AAA appearances). So the oscillating slugging ability provides the big question for Young. The fact that he managed to accrue over 100 home runs in over 700 minor league games says there’s at least a chance Young can find his way to some more power in the major leagues.

But in terms of staying power in the major leagues, his bat probably won’t play at the corner outfield position for very long (at least at current slugging levels). He was a decent-fielding 2B in the minor leagues. If he starts fielding balls there again, his long term prospects improve.

Garrett Jones – Jones is another player with a well-established minor league line and very few chances in the majors. His 4185 plate appearances in the minors have resulted in an unsightly slash line (.258/.312/.450), and both the Braves and Twins organizations have given up on him despite both needing slugging in the outfield.

Three years ago, Jones was coming off 140 games in his second go at AAA, and he might have thought his career was in the balance because of his putrid showing (.238/.302/.430). But he bucked up and put up some numbers that caught the Pirates’ eyes. He’s had better than a .800 OPS for three straight years at AAA since, with a batting average over .280 and a slugging percentage close to .500. He also showed the best strikeout rates of his career to date, as he cut his near-20% rate down to around 15%.

If he can maintain his power with the new strikeout rate in the major leagues, he has a chance of strengthening his tenuous grip on a job. He’s battling Brandon Moss, whose .263/.313/.383 production this year is reminding people of his fourth-outfielder label coming up in the Boston system. Jones certainly has more power potential than the speedier Moss, and slugging two home runs in his first weekend as a Buc helped his chances of catching a regular job.

Few 27- and 28-year-old rookies even rise to the level of an average major-league regular. Give the Bucs some credit for fielding two somewhat-promising players in this category, but the odds say that they’ll be lucky to find one regular outfielder between the two. Because Young’s numbers were more consistent in the minor leagues, and he’s a year younger than Jones, he seems to be the better bet.

Philadelphia Phillies fans are a little uneasy these days. Sure, the defending world champs sit atop the NL East standings, but by the narrowest of margins. Florida is just one game out, with New York and Atlanta each three paces back. Jimmy Rollins’ bat has gone the way of Jimmy Hoffa, and-gasp!- ace Cole Hamels holds an unsightly 4.98 ERA.

Before the Philly Phanatic (no doubt frustrated) resorts to another mascot beat down, I come bearing good news on the Hamels front. The 25 year-old changeup artist might have troubling surface numbers, but he’s arguably pitching better than he did during that magical 2008 season. Here are some reasons to believe Philly’s ace is headed for a big second half:

Hamels’ FIP is well below his ERA

Cole has punched out 8.15 batters per nine innings, while issuing just 1.91 BB/9. That 4.28 K/BB ratio has led to a sparkling 3.58 FIP, which ranks 20th among starting pitchers tossing at least 80 innings. Hamels has been victimized by a .371 Batting Average on Balls In Play (BABIP), the highest mark among starting pitchers by a wide margin (Minnesota’s Kevin Slowey is a distant second, at .352).

The Phillies largely have the same players on hand that let the majors in team Ultimate Zone Rating (UZR) in 2008, but they rank more toward the middle of the pack this season (11th). Even if Philly isn’t scooping up balls put in play at least year’s vacuum-like pace, one would expect Hamel’s BABIP to regress heavily in the second half.

Cole’s career BABIP is .297, and flyball pitchers (his career GB% is 40.3%) tend to have lower BABIP figures in general. According to Baseball-Reference, the NL BABIP for flyballs is .222 in 2009, compared to .230 for groundballs. Hamels, by comparison, has allowed a .268 BABIP on grounders and .314 BABIP on flyballs. He is allowing line drives at an elevated clip (25.7%), which in part explains the higher overall BABIP (line drives tend to fall for hits around 73% of the time), but given his strong peripherals it would be difficult to say that opposing batters are squaring up his pitches all that often.

The 1.4 run difference between Hamels’ FIP and ERA is the second-highest among starters. Only Cleveland’s Carl Pavano (5.36 ERA, 3.75 FIP) has more to gripe about in 2009.

Cole’s contact rates are down from last season

Overall, opposing batters have made contact with 76.2% of Hamels’ offerings, below the 80.6% MLB average and slightly lower than last season’s 76.9% mark. On pitches within the strike zone, Hamels’ contact rate is 80.1%. That’s well below the 87.7% MLB average, and more than three percentage points below 2008’s rate (83.4%).

Hamels’ stuff is the same

Here are Hamels’ 2008 and 2009 figures for horizontal (X) and vertical (Z) movement (a positive X number indicates tailing action in on the hands of lefty hitters, while a negative Z number indicates that the pitch breaks downward more than a ball thrown without spin):

(FB=fastball, CH=changeup, CB=curveball)

2008

FB: 1.9 X, 12 Z
CH: 6.2 X, 7.9 Z
CB: -1.7, -4.0 Z

2009

FB: 3.1 X, 12.5 Z
CH: 7.5 X, 8.2 Z
CB: -1.1 X, -4.0 Z

Hamels’ fastball is tailing in on southpaws a little more, but the differential between his fastball and changeup, in terms of horizontal and vertical break, is basically unchanged. The difference in horizontal break between the fastball and changeup was 4.3 inches in 2008, and 4.4 inches in ’09. In terms of vertical movement, the changeup dropped 4.1 inches more than the fastball in 2008, and 4.3 inches in ’09. Velocity-wise, the gap between fastball and changeup was 10.5 MPH in 2008. In 2009, it’s about 9.7 MPH.

This would be a great time to try and pry Hamels away from a vexed owner, who expected big numbers and might be willing to part with him for a lower sum. Hamels is the same superb starter he has always been, and his surface stats should begin to align with his peripherals in the coming months.

For the purposes of the “Closer Report” (which will be a weekly feature), we’ll place the relief aces in one of three categories: Death Grip (these guys have no chance of relinquishing the closer’s role; think Mo Rivera), In Control (a good chance of continuing to rack up the saves) and Watch Your Back (the set-up man is planning a coup d’etat as we speak).

Death Grip

Mariano Rivera, Yankees

Aside from showing Zen-like plate discipline by drawing a bases-loaded walk against K-Rod, Rivera collected three more saves this week (taking him to 20 for the year). Mo mowed down 3 hitters in 3.1 innings, allowing 1 hit. That takes his K/BB ratio for the year up to a ridiculous 40/3 in 32.2 IP. Rivera’s XFIP figures since 2006: 3.64, 3.06, 2.44, 1.93. For more on how Rivera has managed to make hitters look silly with essentially one pitch for a decade and a half, check out Dave Allen’s piece on two very different kinds of cutters. It may technically be the same pitch, but Rivera works both sides of the plate against righty and lefty hitters alike.

Joe Nathan, Twins

The 34 year-old Nathan could be turning in the best season of his career. His K/BB ratio is an obscene 6.5 in 2009 (a career-high), with a 1.95 FIP bested only by LA’s Broxton and Atlanta’s Soriano. The last time Nathan allowed a run was May 15th, a stretch of 16.2 IP. During June, this far-from-ordinary Joe whiffed 18 batters while issuing a single walk in 11.2 IP.

Joakim Soria, Royals

Joakim collected two saves this week, slamming the door on the Pirates June 28th and the Twins the following night. Soria’s FIP is 2.39 for the year, with 23 K’s in 18.2 IP. The 25 year-old has an awfully deep mix of pitches for a reliever, and he’s mixing it up more since his rookie season. In 2007, Soria tossed his fastball 77.2% of the time. He used the heat 72.4% last year, and 67.6% in 2009, as he relies more on a wicked 70 MPH curveball (+4.76 runs/100 pitches career) and low-80’s change (+0.98).

Jonathan Papelbon, Red Sox

Papelbon picked up 3 saves this week, while blowing one opportunity vs. the O’s on the 30th as part of that absurd 11-10 Baltimore comeback. Perhaps Papelbon’s early-season control issues are in the rearview mirror: he has issued just 1 free pass over his past 5 innings. Still, his FIP (4.21) is well above his accustomed level (2.01 in ’08 and 2.45 in ’07), with just 8.74 K/9 (10 K/9 in ’08, 12.96 in ’07).

Bobby Jenks, White Sox

Jenks pitched just twice this week, getting a W vs. the cross-town Cubbies June 27th and getting the save against the Royals yesterday. The 6-3, 275 pounder is turning in a superb year, with 8.79 K/9 (a marked increase from last year’s 5.55 K/9) and 1.88 BB/9. Some poor luck on flyballs has put a damper on the overall numbers, but Jenks has recovered his strikeout ability and velocity (95.4 MPH fastball in 2009, 93.8 last year) while further refining his control.

Frank Francisco, Rangers

Re-inserted as Texas’ closer, Francisco had a rough return when the Angels pummeled him for 3 runs, two walks and a homer on July 1st. In a season interrupted by elbow and shoulder pain, Frank has posted a 26/7 K/BB ratio in 23.2 innings. His split-finger pitch is stifling the opposition, with a +4.58 run/100 pitch value in 2009. Normally a wild child (4.43 BB/9 career), Francisco has issued 2.66 BB/9 this season.

Andrew Bailey, Athletics

Bailey continues to crush hitters in the late innings. While he didn’t get a save this week, he eviscerated the competition to the tune of 7 K’s and 1 hit in 3 innings (his FIP sits at 2.65 for the year). Bailey’s three-pitch mix has limited batters to a Z-Contact% (percentage of contact made on pitches within the strike zone) of 70.8%, light years below the 87.7% MLB average.

In Control

Brian Fuentes, Angels

Fuentes didn’t give up a single run in June (8.2 IP, 11 K, 3 BB), and he started off July with another scoreless frame against the O’s yesterday. His walk rate is down to 2.86 per nine innings (a career low), with a 3.11 FIP that trumps the 3.34 mark posted by the Queens-bound man he replaced in Los Angeles.

J.P. Howell, Rays

Howell has taken the past five save chances for the Rays, a great development for fantasy owners. The 26 year-old converted starter is among the very best ‘pen arms in the majors, with 10.71 K/9, and a 2.47 FIP. J.P. supplements a deceptively effective mid-80’s fastball (+0.87 runs/100 in 2009) with a knockout 80 MPH curve (+2.28) and changeup (+2.91). He may not fit the fire-breathing closer archetype, but he’s damned hard to make contact against. Howell’s 68.3% contact rate ranks 6th among relievers tossing at least 30 IP. If the save chances keep on coming, he’ll surely climb this list.

Kerry Wood, Indians

Wood didn’t get a save chance this week, but he and the Indians will gladly take two scoreless innings, given his turbulent beginning in Cleveland. The 32 year-old Texan still has a walk rate nearing 5.3 per nine innings, with a -0.99 WPA that places him in the bottom 10 among all relievers. The Tribe acquired another hard-throwing, control-challenged ‘pen arm in Chris Perez (acquired from St. Louis along with a PTBNL for Mark DeRosa), but he doesn’t seem likely to challenge Wood this season.

George Sherrill, Orioles

Sherrill was shellacked by Boston on July 1st, walking three and giving up 2 runs in a 6-5 loss. Overall, the 32 year-old southpaw has a 3.62 FIP and a 1.22 WPA. Sherrill’s shiny 2.51 ERA and “Proven Closer” moniker could make him attractive to bullpen-starved teams. The O’s are reportedly still unsure of whether or not to ship Sherrill elsewhere, but it definitely seems to make sense. The club has an outstanding crop of talent, but the A.L. East is a whole different beast; they’re not contending now, and George won’t be part of the next competitive Baltimore team.

David Aardsma, Mariners

Aardsma collected a save vs. the Dodgers on June 28th, then tossed a scoreless frame against the Yankees (no save) yesterday in an 8-4 win. The flame-throwing 27 year-old is fooling plenty of hitters (11.33 K/9, with a contact rate in the low-70’s), but his XFIP (4.01) is considerably higher than his ERA (1.45). If there’s a place Aardsma can keep defying convention, though, it’s Seattle (the flyball righty resides in a park that suppresses homers and has the benefit of Gutierrez and Ichiro! in the outfield).

Jason Frasor (Scott Downs on the DL with a toe injury), Blue Jays

Frasor didn’t get a save op this week, but he did make two scoreless appearances (vs. Philly on June 28th and Tampa on July 1st). He did walk two in two innings, however. Frasor’s walk rate will be worth monitoring in the following weeks. He has issued just 2.28 BB/9, but that’s more the product of more outside swings (25.1% O-swing% in ’09, 19.7 in 2007) than some newfound ability to paint the corners.

Meanwhile, Downs is on the comeback trail (he threw off a mound for the first time June 30th). Downs seems to feel he’s close to a return…

“It’s progress,” Downs said. “It wouldn’t be the first time I pitched through discomfort. It’s not discomfort enough to where it’s affecting my mechanics and that’s the main thing.” (mlb.com)

…While manager Cito Gaston is less convinced…

“I hope he is but I really dont know,” said Gaston. “I have no confidence in that at all.” (Jordan Bastian)

Watch Your Back

Fernando Rodney, Tigers

Watch out for:Joel Zumaya

Rodney dips back down to “Watch Your Back” territory, following a flammable June that saw him get hammered for 9 runs in 12 IP. Fernando issued an ugly 10 free passes during June, locating just 45% of his pitches within the strike zone (49.2% MLB average). Rodney’s FIP has ballooned to 4.04. Granted, Zumaya (5.05 FIP, 5.47 BB/9) hasn’t been some beacon of stability. But the Tigers could explore trade possibilities over the next month.

For the purposes of the “Closer Report” (which will be a weekly feature), we’ll place the relief aces in one of three categories: Death Grip (these guys have no chance of relinquishing the closer’s role; think Mo Rivera), In Control (a good chance of continuing to rack up the saves) and Watch Your Back (the set-up man is planning a coup d’etat as we speak).

Death Grip

Jonathan Broxton, Dodgers

Broxton had a relatively light week of work, which isn’t necessarily a bad thing considering that he’s on pace to chuck 76 innings this season (that’s nothing compared to Ramon Troncoso and Ronald Belisario, however: Troncoso is on a 105-inning pace and Belisario projects to throw 96 frames). Jon notched one save in two appearances vs. Colorado, whiffing five batters in the process. If Broxton is wearing out, it’s certainly not showing up in his velocity readings: his average fastball checked in at 97.3 MPH in June (97.5 MPH for the year). The 25 year-old has increased his fastball velocity every season in the majors, from 94.4 MPH in 2005 to that near-98 MPH reading in ’09. His run values for the pitch (per 100 pitches) since 2005? 0.17, -0.30, +0.69. +1.38 and +1.60 in 2009.

Heath Bell, Padres

Heath corralled the state of Texas this week, notching a save vs. the Rangers on June 28th and another against Houston on the 30th. Bell still hasn’t been taken deep in 33.2 innings this season, racking up a +2.17 Win Probability Added (WPA) that’s tied for 7th among relievers. With the trade deadline rapidly approaching, could Bell be switching uni’s? The Padres have considerable work to do on the rebuilding front, and hording a 31 year-old reliever, no matter the quality, wouldn’t seem to be a wise move.

Francisco Rodriguez, Mets

Rodriguez had an embarrassing week, featuring what is likely the lowest point of his distinguished career: a bases-loaded walk to closer deity Mariano Rivera, of all people. K-Rod walked three in that appearance against the Yankees on the 28th, got a spotless save against Milwaukee July 1st then blew up again yesterday afternoon in a rain-drenched affair against the Pirates (4 H, 2R, 1 HR in 2 IP). Is it time to be concerned here? In 2006, Rodriguez posted a 3.5 K/BB ratio with the Angels. In 2009, that figure has nearly been cut in half (1.82 K/BB). He’s lost 3 punchouts per nine innings since ’06, and his walk rate (4.99 BB/9) is up for the 4th straight season. Rodriguez has never jumped out ahead of hitters, but check out his First-Pitch Strike% totals (MLB average is 58%):

2006: 57.4
2007: 57.2
2008: 54.5
2009: 48.8

Trevor Hoffman, Brewers

Trevor was touched up for two runs and 4 hits against the Giants on June 27th, then came back to pick up a save vs. the Mets on the 29th (his 18th). Like the man who replaced him in San Diego, Hoffman hasn’t surrendered a home run this year. Believe it or not, his 85 MPH fastball has been remarkably effective in 2009. Among relievers tossing at least 20 innings, Hoffman’s +3.03 runs/100 with the pitch ranks 2nd. Hoffman’s vaunted low-70’s changeup (+3.60/100 pitches) has also been dastardly. The fastball/changeup combo is all about working up and down the for all-time saves leader: his fastball and changeup barely move horizontally at all (1 inch of tail in on righties for the fastball, with 3 inches of tail for the change). However, there’s a half-foot of difference in terms of vertical movement (12.4 inches for the fastball, 6.6 for the changeup). The MLB average is less than 4 inches of difference.

Chad Qualls, Diamondbacks

Pitching at less-than-optimum health (strained forearm), Qualls surrendered 8 runs in 9.2 frames during the month of June. Opponents slugged .535 against him during the month, as he punched out 5 batters. Qualls’ numbers for the season (8.16 K/9, 1.13 BB/9, 64.6 GB%) are excellent, but have been dragged down by a .350 BABIP.

In Control

Brad Lidge, Phillies

Lidge had another stomach-churning appearance on June 26th, coughing up 2 runs and 2 walks in 1/3 of an inning vs. the Blue Jays. He did recover to collect a save two nights later against Toronto. Let’s try to be positive here: Lidge has suffered from a .371 BABIP and a 17.9 HR/FB rate. Still, his walk rate (5.6 BB/9, 46 Zone%) is troubling. None of Lidge’s pitches are working. His fastball (-3.45 runs/100 pitches) is the least effective among all relievers, and the oft-utilized slider comes in at -0.59/100 pitches (+2.50 in 2008).

Francisco Cordero, Reds

Coco Cordero threw a scoreless frame versus Cleveland June 27th (no save), picked up a SV against Arizona July 1st and got a W despite walking three batters against the D-Backs the following night. Cordero’s K/BB ratio has dipped to 1.93, with his K rate falling by a decent margin (7.68 K/9, down from 9.98 last year). His low BABIP (.264) and HR/FB rate (3.2%) suggest that the 1.85 ERA is more smoke and mirrors than great pitching. Cordero’s XFIP (based on K’s, walks, and a normalized HR/FB rate) sits over two runs higher (3.93).

Matt Capps, Pirates

Capps picked up two saves this week (against the Royals and Cubs), but it wasn’t a particularly good week for the Big Bull Rider. He served up a homer to Mark Teahen on June 26th, then took a loss against the Mets yesterday afternoon. Capps won’t be 26 until September, but don’t be entirely surprised if his name enters trade discussion over the next month. The Pirates surely aren’t shy about jettisoning players if they feel the return is right.

Huston Street, Rockies

Street sealed the deal twice this week, with saves against his former employer (the A’s) on June 27th and 28th. After a mediocre 2008 season (-0.01 WPA), Street has rebounded by increasing his K/BB ratio from 2.56 to 3.90 (+0.98 WPA). After locating just 47.5% of his pitches in the zone last season, Huston has increased that figure to 51.2% with the Rockies (49.2 MLB average, 51.4 career average).

Jose Valverde, Astros

Papa Grande pitched twice this past week, blowing a save against Detroit on June 28th (2 R, including a homer by Brandon Inge). Working his way back from a nasty calf injury, Valverde hasn’t gotten ahead of hitters as well as he normally does. His First-Pitch Strike% is just 55.1 (65.3 in 2007 and 61.4 in 2008). To boot, opponents are making contact with 84.1% of his pitches within the zone (76.2 career average). Despite all that negativity, Valverde still has a 20/5 K/BB in 16.2 innings.

Ryan Franklin, Cardinals

At the risk of sounding like a broken record, Franklin continues to defy logic by holding an eye-popping 99.1% strand rate and a .206 BABIP. Those measures say “regression” in bold, glowing, neon lights. Yet, St. Louis’ stopper hasn’t given up a run since May 20th (a stretch of 13 appearances). It helps that Franklin just plain doesn’t walk anyone (1.45 BB/9; he last gave up a free pass May 27th).

Brian Wilson, Giants

Wilson had his 13-appearance scoreless streak busted on June 27th vs. the Brewers, as he was beaten to the tune of 3 runs and 4 hits in 0.2 innings. He then came back to notch a 1.1-inning save vs. St. Louis on June 30th. On the positive side, Wilson’s 96 MPH heater is humming (+1.50 runs/100). On the other hand, he’s throwing about 5 percent fewer pitches within the strike zone (54.3 in ’08, 49.2 in ’09). His WPA for the year sits at -0.87. That’s in the same territory as discarded Twin Luis Ayala and maligned middle man Aaron Heilman.

Watch Your Back

Mike Gonzalez/Rafael Soriano, Braves

Gonzalez notched a save against the Red Sox on June 28th, with Soriano picking up a SV yesterday against the Phillies after Ryan Madson coughed up 3 runs. Soriano bests Gonzalez in WPA (2.2 to 0.97) and K/BB ratio (3.77 to 3.4), and he was used in more high-leverage situations than Gonzo in June (1.68 Leverage Index to 1.48 for Gonzalez). They’re both qualified, and figuring out who gets the 9th-inning opportunity will come down to matchups and recent usage compared to just pigeonholing one guy as “closer” and the other “set-up man.” Imagine that.

Kevin Gregg, Cubs

Watch out for: Carlos Marmol

Gregg turned in a much-needed, serene week for the Cubs. He gathered three saves (one against the White Sox and two vs. the Bucs), whiffing three and not surrendering a hit in 3 IP. Gregg’s numbers for the year aren’t anything to write home about, but his WPA is up to 0.45 and he has stopped handing out walks like they’re sticks of Juicy Fruit (1.5 K/BB in April, 2.4 in May and 3.67 in June).

Matt Lindstrom (right elbow sprain) on the DL; Leo Nunez is filling in

Nunez appears to be the guy pegged for save ops for Florida in Lindstrom’s absence. The lithe, live-armed 25 year old (formerly of the Pittsburgh and Kansas City organizations) boasts a 94 MPH fastball, mid-80’s slider and a hard mid-80’s change. While those offerings didn’t lead to many whiffs in 2008 (4.84 K/9), Nunez has punched out 8.49 batters per nine innings this season. Opponents aren’t making a whole lot of contact with his stuff (72.4% overall, compared to the 80.6% MLB average), but Nunez could stand to stop getting into so many hitter’s counts (53.4 First-Pitch Strike%).

Mike MacDougal, Nationals

MacDougal picked up a save against the O’s on June 28th, while also seeing one of his competitors (Joel Hanrahan) shipped to the ‘Burgh. Not that the former Royal and White Sock should enjoy any great job security: in 18.2 IP, MacDougal has a 10/15 K/BB ratio.

Everyone is happy when one of their pitchers is scheduled for two starts in a week. But that is not always a good thing. Here are five pitchers you may be on the fence about (or should be on the fence) putting into your lineup for Week 14.

Jose Contreras – In his first five starts of the season, Contreras was 0-5 with an 8.19 ERA. Since then he is 3-2 with a 2.17 ERA and has pitched into the eighth inning in four of his last five starts. Contreras has his highest SO rate (6.18) since 2005 and his walk rate (2.82) is under three for the fourth straight year. His FIP checks in 84 points lower than his ERA. And while his BABIP is a touch low (.285) his 60.4 percent strand rate has room for improvement. Owned in only 25 percent of CBS Sports leagues, Contreras could be a good add for two starts this week.

Jon Garland – A free agent pickup by the Diamondbacks in the off-season, Garland has had a Jekyl-Hyde type season. In road games, Garland has a 2.47 ERA and a 1.275 WHIP. In home games, Garland checks in with a 7.51 ERA and 1.827 WHIP. He has eight starts each home and away. With two home games this week, sit Garland if you can.

Mike Pelfrey – He was very tough in May, with a 2.92 ERA and a 1.200 WHIP. However, June was less kind as he posted a 6.39 ERA in five starts. His last start came Wednesday, the first day in July, and Pelfrey pitched 7.2 innings of scoreless ball along with six strikeouts. Historically, Pelfrey has done his best work in July and August, the only two months in his career where his ERA is below four. He gets two starts at Citi Field this week, where his ERA this year is ¾ of a run lower than his road mark.

Ricky Romero – While the pre-season hype surrounding a rookie Blue Jays pitcher was reserved for Brett Cecil, it has been Romero who has been the biggest contributor. Romero has an impressive 2.54 SO/BB ratio and a very nice 1.24 WHIP. The LHP from California has six straight Quality Starts and is working on a streak of 20 consecutive scoreless innings. Owned in just 22.4 percent of ESPN leagues, check your waiver wire and see if he is available to pick up and insert into your lineup.

Jordan Zimmermann – Our own David Golebiewski has a nice write-up of Zimmermann, one of my favorite rookie pitchers this season. However, you may want to sit him this week if possible. Zimmermann has two road starts in Week 14, and away from Nationals Park he has a 5.40 ERA and a 1.470 WHIP. And not only are they road starts, but Zimmermann will take the mound in Colorado versus the second-highest scoring team in the National League and in Houston, where Minute Maid Park is one of the top HR parks in the majors this season.

Other scheduled two-start pitchers in Week 14 are listed below. Please remember that these are projected pitchers and changes can and will happen between now and next week.

Sabathia, Beckett, Vazquez, Gallardo, J.Johnson, Cain, Hamels, Wainwright, Weaver, Garza, Cueto, Millwood, Kershaw, Jurrjens, Harang, Baker, Pettitte, Happ, Smoltz, Kuroda, Meche, Marquis, Wells, Correia, Washburn, Bergesen, Zito, Hammel, Galarraga, West, Hampton, Vargas, W. Silva, G. Gonzalez, V. Vasquez, Sowers, Holland, Stammen, Chen.

Check back Sunday for an update of two-start pitchers.

Now, I would like to take a step back and provide some accountability for previous picks. There needs to be a two-week time lag because last week’s pitchers have yet to complete their second start. So here are my selections for Week 12 and how they did.

Cahill – Advised to start. W, 6 K, 6.75 ERA, 1.31 WHIP (2 starts)
Cook – Advised to start. 2 W, 8 K 1.20 ERA, 1.00 WHIP (2)
Liriano – Advised to sit. 2 W, 12 k, 3.75 ERA, 1.50 WHIP (2)
Richmond – Advised to sit. W, 3 K, 2.57 ERA, 0.57 WHIP (1)
Wang – Advised to start. W, 7 K, 4.35 ERA, 1.35 WHIP (2)

Every Thursday throughout the season, Minor Impacts takes a look at some of the hottest minor league players that could have impacts at the Major League Level in the near future.

Zach Stewart: A 2008 third-round pick out of Texas Tech, Stewart has had no problems dominating hitters in professional baseball. His up-and-down college career included stints in both the starting rotation and the bullpen. His pro career has been no different; Stewart spent his debut season in the ‘pen before moving to the rotation in 2009. He made seven starts in both high-A and double-A before moving back to the bullpen with a recent promotion to triple-A. That moves pretty much signifies that the Cincinnati organization views Stewart, 22, as a prospect that can help the club in the not-too-distant future. In double-A, the right-hander allowed just 29 hits in 37 innings of work while posting rates of 2.43 BB/9 and 7.54 K/9. He also does a nice job of keeping balls-in-play on the ground.

Cody Satterwhite: Detroit loves big-time arms, and Satterwhite is yet another college product that fits the bill. A 2008 second round draft pick out of Mississippi, the right-hander’s results have never matched up to his stuff (He was heavily scouted coming out of high school too, with the same knock against him). Satterwhite has been moved aggressively through the system by the Tigers, not unlike Ryan Perry. Satterwhite, 22, has posted a 9.8 K/9 strikeout rate to this point in his career, but he’s also been too hittable (9.0 H/9), while also allowing too many base runners via the walk (5.4 BB/9). With Detroit’s pitching depth still pretty weak – and with the bullpen struggling and unproven – Satterwhite may get a taste of the big leagues before he’s ready.

Phillippe Aumont: Staying with the theme of rushing pitchers, you can’t write on the topic without mentioning the No. 1 club for rushing prospects: The Seattle Mariners. Aumont was a highly-regarded prep pitcher when he was drafted in the first round of the 2007 draft. Everyone knew he had great stuff but he was extremely raw as a pitcher after growing up in Quebec, Canada. Despite his rough edges, Aumont has had a lot of success in pro ball, including at the extreme hitter’s domain known as High Desert (high-A). Pitching in the offense-oriented California League earlier this season, Aumont posted a 3.24 ERA (3.53 FIP) and allowed just 24 hits in 33.1 innings of work. He also posted a walk rate of 3.24 BB/9 and a strikeout rate of 9.45 K/9. Now in double-A, he’s continued to pitch well, leading to the possibility that he could help Seattle by the end of 2009 – or certainly early on in 2010.

Henry Rodriguez: Rodriguez deserves to be lumped in with the pitchers above because he’s a hard-throwing reliever, but he hasn’t flown through the minors like the others. In fact, he’s been teasing the A’s with his potential since Stewart and Satterwhite were freshmen in college. Rodriguez appeared to be on the verge of a breakout season with a dominating performance in high-A ball in 2008, but the wheels fell off with a promotion to double-A. Rodriguez is looking better in triple-A this season, although he’s thrown just 15.2 innings (with a strikeout rate of 14.36 K/9). Control continues to be his biggest issue (5.17 BB/9) and he’s still pretty much a one-pitch pitcher with a fastball that can touch 100 mph.

Bryan Petersen: In the pre-season, I highlighted Petersen as one of my favorite sleeper prospects because of his intriguing combination of power and speed. The outfielder got off to a bit of a slow start in 2009 at the double-A level, but he’s picked things up since the beginning of June and is hitting .395 in his last 10 games. Petersen is still not hitting for power (.085 ISO) but his average is up to .288 and he’s got his strikeout rate under control (19.8 K%). He could probably hit right-handed MLB pitchers right now (.309 average) but the left-handed hitter still struggles against southpaws (.211 in 57 at-bats). Petersen stands to benefit from Florida’s lack of minor-league outfield depth. He certainly has more upside than a player like Alejandro De Aza.

Gaby Sanchez: Staying with the Florida theme, you have to figure the club is going to realize the error of its ways with playing Emilio Bonifacio everyday at third base. With the club inches from first place in the National League East, the team could use some consistent offense from the position and Bonifacio has proven that he is not the player to provide it. Sanchez, a converted first baseman, has been playing third base at triple-A. He’s not going to win any gold gloves out there, but his defense is no worse than Bonifacio’s and his bat has much more potential. Sanchez is currently hitting .298/.366/.462 with seven homers in 171 at-bats.