Every Thursday throughout the season, Minor Impacts takes a look at some of the hottest minor league players that could have impacts at the Major League Level in the near future. Some of the players we’ve educated you on before their promotions include: Vince Mazzaro, Andrew McCutchen, Gordon Beckham, Robert Manuel, Marc Rzepczynski, Aaron Poreda, Jake Fox, Nolan Reimold, Daniel Bard, and Mat Latos.

Freddie Freeman: The Atlanta Braves organization recently promoted its two top offensive prospects from high-A to double-A. Freeman, a first baseman, had a breakout 2008 season, in what was his first full year in the minors after being selected in the second round of the 2007 draft out of a California high school. The prospect, who recently turned 20, hit .316/.378/.521 with 18 homers in 491 at-bats. This season, he began the year in high-A where he hit .302/.394/.447 with six homers in 255 at-bats. So far in double-A, Freeman is hitting .294 with three doubles in nine games. Although he does not walk a ton, the left-handed hitter does not strike out much (16.1 K%), compared to other power hitters. Defensively, he is above average and he has a strong arm as a former prep hurler who was committed to Cal State Fullerton as a two-way player.

Jason Heyward: This power-hitting outfielder was, like Freeman, a steal from the 2007 draft. The Braves nabbed the Georgia native with the 14th overall pick of the draft. An advanced hitter for a prep signee, Heyward has a career line of .312/.379/.491 in 733 at-bats – and he’s still just 19 years old. Earlier this season in high-A ball, Heyward hit .296/.369/.519 with 10 homers in 189 at-bats, while missing time with an injury. In a good pitcher’s park, the left-handed hitter posted a walk rate of 10 BB% and a strikeout rate of 15.9 K%. Since his promotion to double-A, Heyward is hitting .346/.438/.615 with three doubles and two triples in eight games. Neither Freeman nor Heyward should see the Majors this season, but they should both be kept in mind for 2010… They could both be up before the MLB All-Star break, depending on the big league club’s playoff hopes.

Danny Valencia: It’s been a rough offensive season for the Minnesota Twins. Incumbent third baseman Joe Crede is hitting .234/.297/.452, while back-up Brian Buscher is hitting .210/.350/.310. Help, though, may be on the way. Valencia does not have the same pedigree that other top prospects have, as a former 19th round selection out of the University of Miami. However, he’s clawed his way to the top and is on the cusp of giving some offensive aid to the Twins’ big league club. In four seasons, Valencia has a triple-slash line of .305/.363/.489. He began the 2009 season in double-A, where he hit .284/.373/.482 with seven homers in 218 at-bats. Recently promoted to triple-A, Valencia is currently hitting .360/.372/.573 with three homers and seven doubles in 19 games. His 2.6% walk rate at triple-A suggests he has a little work to do with his approach. However, the right-handed hitter is almost big-league ready and has the potential to be an average Major League third baseman.

Terry Evans: If you think Valencia is a long-shot made good, meet Evans. This Angels outfield prospect was selected out of a small junior college in the 47th round in the 2002 draft by the St. Louis Cardinals organization. He had four nondescript years in the minors before breaking out offensively in 2006. The next season, Evans was traded to the Angels organization and he made his MLB debut (eight games). Outfield depth in the system kept him at triple-A in 2008 and an injury cost him much of the season. Back at full strength in 2009, Evans is putting on a show with a line of .287/.333/.520 in 348 at-bats. He also has 17 homers and 20 steals in 23 attempts. Although he’s already 27, Evans is showing 30-30 ability at the triple-A level. His poor plate rates will probably limit his ceiling in the Majors, but this late bloomer has some big-league potential, even if only as a part-time player.

Esmil Rogers: For long-time fans, it is still hard to wrap one’s mind around the fact that Colorado could produce effective Major League pitchers. But in this new era, talented pitchers can actually survive in the Rockies. Rogers, 23, has been slowly navigating the Colorado minor league system since coming over to North America in 2006. He’s really taken his game to another level this season, thanks to improved command and control of his solid repertoire: low-to-mid-90s fastball, good curveball and improving changeup. At double-A, Rogers allowed 87 hits in 94.1 innings, while also posting a walk rate of 1.81 BB/9 and a strikeout rate of 7.92 K/9. The right-hander was recently promoted to triple-A, where he’s made just one start (6 IP, 3 R).

Hector Rondon: Another quietly-blooming Latin prospect, Rondon’s name is slowly gaining popularity among prospect watchers. The right-handed hurler broke out in a big way in 2008 and has continued to improve in 2009. He began this season in double-A where he allowed 60 hits in 72 innings of work. The 21-year-old pitcher also posted a walk rate of 2.00 BB/9 and a strikeout rate of 9.13 K/9. Promoted to triple-A, Rondon has made just one start and he did not allow a hit over six innings, while walking two and striking out eight. His repertoire includes a fastball that can touch 94-95 mph, a plus changeup, and a developing slider. He has the potential to be a No. 2 or 3 starter.

Sometimes you just can’t find a quip at the ready. You’re watching the all-star festivities, thinking about all the wonders of baseball and perusing the newest about Pitch F/X, Hit F/X, and now even Game F/X, and you think something will come. But there you are, and all you have is….

Kendry Morales – Projection systems often have trouble with breakouts, so maybe it’s not surprising that ZiPS projects Morales to basically halve his home run production from here on out, finishing with 23 home runs instead of the 26 or 27 he might otherwise be on pace for.

One can’t really blame the system for being pessimistic, however. He had only 19 home runs in 402 at-bats in the major and minor leagues combined last year, and only nine home runs in 401 total minor league at bats the year before. Why would this player approach 30 home runs?

Perhaps the pessimism also stems from Morales’ consistently low line drive percentages. When a player seems to lack home run power, the pundits fall back on the idea that he is a ‘line drive hitter’ or can ‘drive it in the gaps.’ Instead, it seems that Morales is the type of hitter that avoids the strikeout (16.9% career) in favor of putting the ball in play, often on the ground (44.9% ground ball rate). It certainly isn’t his line drive percentage (15.3% career, 17.5% this year).

One thing should be said: with a fly-ball rate over 40%, he could up the power. Lance Berkman and Adrian Gonzalez also own similar fly ball rates and have a little power. Morales’ HR/FB rate has increased every year and he may some day hit 30 home runs if only because he’s listed at 26 years old and has more baseball to play. He has also repeated AAA three times while waiting for his chance – he probably couldn’t be better prepared for this, and his peak is probably still on the way.

The year-27 peak theory has been disproved for the most part. An oft-referenced study by Schulz et al, done in 1994 by surveying the statistics of over 388 players that were active in 1965, found that major league baseball players peak between 25 and 28 years old. The reason for the range is that their peak is usually determined by their age when they broke into the majors. It follows that you would peak later if you debuted later. But the law of the bell curve also applies, and the later you join the league, the earlier you leave the league for the most part.

If this Cuban first baseman is actually 26 years old, he’s joining the majors early enough to have better years in front of him. For those in keeper leagues, this first half at least shows that he belongs and will play long enough to probably have a better year in sometime soon in his career.

However, if he’s closer to 30 and the owner of a false birth certificate like many other Cuban players, this is most likely his peak and he probably won’t be a starter in the majors for very long. That much we do know about the bell curves of major league players as it relates to their ages and their performances.

The All-Star break is a great time to talk trade with other members of your league. You have a couple of days where the stats do not change and everyone is focused in on just one game. Take advantage of this time and consider the following players in your trade talks.

Obtain

Pat Burrell – One of the more consistent HR threats the past four years, Burrell has just four HR this season. And while his BABIP is a normal .292 his AVG checks in at just .238, his lowest since 2003. Burrell has been slowed by a neck strain this season, which explains some of his poor numbers. But despite a career 16.2 percent HR/FB mark, Burrell’s numbers this year in the category sits at 5.7 percent, a figure unlikely to remain that low going forward. He may not do much better in AVG the rest of the year, but he should provide plenty of HR in the second half.

Roy Oswalt – Five wins at the All-Star break was not what owners were expecting when they made Oswalt a fifth-round pick this year. And now he shows up with the red injury symbol next to his name. But the bruised fingers are not expected to keep Oswalt out of action and he has a lifetime .770 winning percentage in the second half of the season, along with a 2.89 ERA.

Howie Kendrick – He has yet to play 100 games in the majors in any season but the one thing Kendrick can do is hit. In his three previous seasons with the Angels, he has posted BABIPs of .329, .382 and .362 in what adds up to 945 at-bats. This year he has a .279 BABIP. Kendrick is hitting just .239 right now but it would not be a surprise if he hit .300 for the remainder of the season. RoS ZiPS has him hitting .294 over 201 at-bats.

Tim Stauffer – The fourth pick of the 2003 draft, Stauffer had his development stunted by a torn labrum that required surgery and caused him to miss the entire 2008 season. But Stauffer pitched very well in 12 games at Double-A and four starts in Triple-A this year. He made his 2009 major league debut right before the break and struck out seven in seven innings versus the Giants. Stauffer is someone that fantasy owners should pick up and see if he can keep it going. Getting to pitch half his games in Petco Park will certainly help.

Gerardo Parra – The National League Rookie of the Month in May, Parra has carved out a full-time role, alternating between left and center field. With former Diamondbacks Director of Player Development A.J. Hinch taking over as the team’s manager, Parra has been given the opportunity to develop at the major league level. In 52 games, Parra has a .284 AVG and 30 runs scored. He is even more valuable in leagues with daily transactions, as he has an .855 OPS versus RHP.

Exchange

Evan Longoria – In the first 30 games of the season, Longoria was one of the top three fantasy players in the game. He posted a .367-11-44-27-2 line. In the ensuing 54 games, his line reads: 234-6-22-21-0, which places him significantly lower than top three. Unfortunately, a finger injury is keeping Longoria out of the All-Star game, but it does not figure to be a long-term issue. The public loves Longoria and if someone is willing to trade first-round talent for him, it is time to pull the trigger. This is by no means a dump candidate but someone who you try to maximize his name value.

Tommy Hanson – He seemingly has the world on a string with a 4-0 record and a 2.85 ERA. But a quick look at his peripherals shows a player who has really been the beneficiary of some good fortune. Hanson sports a .236 BABIP, an 85.4 percent strand rate and a 1.10 HR/9 despite allowing a 46 percent fly ball percentage. It all adds up to a 5.04 FIP. A key indicator for Hanson will be his K/BB ratio in the second half. In Triple-A this year he had a 5.29 mark while so far in the majors it checks in at only 1.25.

Jeff Francoeur – Atlanta’s golden boy now finds himself in the media capital of the world. Francoeur’s career with the Mets is off to a great start with back-to-back two-hit games. But Francoeur is simply not a good fantasy player. The only times he was useful in AVG was when his BABIP was over .340; it now sits at .287 for the year. The swing that produced 29 HR in 2006 appears gone, as his dismal .102 ISO indicates. And the 105-RBI season came thanks to a season when he came to the plate 319 times with runners on base, including 257 times with runners in scoring position.

J.A. Happ – Like Hanson, Happ has great fantasy numbers with questionable peripherals. He sports a 6-0 record with a 2.90 ERA. But his BABIP is .242 and he has an 85.9 percent strand rate. Happ struggled with his slider last year and has ditched that for more fastballs and cutters. It is a shift that has worked very well so far but it is not likely to remain so rosy the rest of the season.

Franklin Gutierrez – When the Mariners acquired him from Cleveland in the off-season, everyone raved about what a fine defensive outfielder Seattle was getting. And he has been just as good as advertised in the field. But it is at the plate where Gutierrez has really turned heads. He has 10 HR at the All-Star break after hitting just eight last year and his AVG is 47 points higher than a year ago. A .348 BABIP helps explain the average while his HR/FB rate is over twice where it was a season ago.

When Dan Haren was shipped from the A’s to the Diamondbacks for a king’s ransom of prospects (Brett Anderson, Chris Carter, Aaron Cunningham, Dana Eveland, Carlos Gonzalez and Greg Smith) in December of 2007, he was already regarded as one of the top starters in the majors. Oakland plucked the right-hander from St. Louis back in 2004 as part of the lamentable (from a Redbirds standpoint) Mark Mulder deal.

In his three seasons wearing green and gold, Haren posted FIP’s of 3.89, 4.12 and 3.70. Haren accumulated an average of 4.3 Wins Above Replacement, and his performance was worth a total of nearly $49 million to the A’s. From 2005-2007, his strikeout-to-walk ratio was a robust 3.47-to-one.

As it turns out, Haren was just getting started. Check out his numbers since heading to the desert:

2008: 216 IP, 3.01 FIP, 5.15 K/BB
2009: 130 IP, 2.70 FIP, 8.06 K/BB

The shaggy righty was worth 6.4 WAR in 2008 ($28.8M on the free agent market), and he’s on pace to obliterate that total with 4.3 WAR already in 2009. He has basically morphed from an All-Star level starter to some Curt Schilling-esque control deity.

Haren has always possessed a deep mix of pitches, but there’s really no telling what he’ll chuck to hitters these days. In his first year with Oakland back in 2005, Haren threw his fastball 59.2% of the time. This season, he has only called on the heater 47.6%. That 91 MPH offering has been dominant (tops among all starters at +2.47 runs/100 pitches; knuckleballer Tim Wakefield is a very distant second at +1.57). But that’s just the opening act for Haren:

86.7 MPH cutter (thrown 19.6% of the time): +2.67 runs/100

78.3 MPH curveball (thrown 20%): +0.13

85.3 MPH splitter (thrown 12.8%): +2.24

Haren’s cutter ranks 4th among qualified starters in total run value at +9.8 runs (a counting stat, compared to the rate stat of runs/100; some guys at the top of the leader board have high runs/100 values but pretty much never throw the pitch in question). His splitter checks in at number two in total run value, at +5.4. In other words, Mr. Haren has three out pitches (fastball, cutter, splitter), with a league-average curve in his back pocket for good measure.

Want to see confusion in the batter’s box personified? Take a look at Haren’s plate discipline stats sometime. In 2005, his Outside-Swing% was 24.1%, close to the MLB average. Hitters have chased Haren’s stuff out of the zone about 30% of the time during his Arizona tenure. His overall contact rate sat around 80% during his time with the A’s (right around the MLB average), but it’s down to 74.7% in 2009.

Haren’s First-Pitch Strike% is up nearly 10 percent since his Oakland days (from 59.2% in 2005 to 68.3% in 2009; the MLB avg. is 58 percent). Opposing batters are also more timid when it comes to taking a hack against pitches within the zone, as Danny’s Z-Swing% (pct. of pitches swung at within the strike zone) has dropped from 68% in ’05 to 62.7% in 2009 (the MLB average is about 66 percent).

Dan Haren is awesome. I know this is not a particularly shocking conclusion: everyone knows he’s great. But I’m not sure that most realize just how great Haren has become. The 28 year-old deserves a prominent place in the discussion of baseball’s best starter.

Stock Up

Garrett Jones, Pirates

Who? Mr. Jones is a 28 year-old lefty hitter who had a bitter cup of coffee with the Twins back in 2007 (.260 wOBA in 84 PA). The hulking 6-4, 230 pounder is one of many kinda-sorta-maybe corner outfielders getting a chance at playing time in Pittsburgh (Brandon Moss and Delwyn Young are also in the mix). Jones has responded by thwacking 5 home runs in his first 46 PA. While he could be a cheap source of power and has a good chance of keeping his name in the lineup, I would hesitate against getting too enthralled. Jones is a career .258/.312/.450 minor league hitter who has taken 5 tours of the AAA International League. His rest-of-season ZiPS projection (.257/.309/.455, 6.7 BB%) essentially makes Jones look like Pittsburgh’s version of Micah Hoffpauir.

Jonathan Sanchez, Giants

Sanchez was booted from San Fran’s rotation, only to be returned to the starting five in the aftermath of Randy Johnson ’s shoulder injury. I think Jonathan, uh, responded well. The gifted, aggravating 26 year-old tossed a no-no versus the Padres, punching out 11 in the process. It’s anyone’s guess as to how the Puerto Rican native pitches in his next outing, though. Equipped with low-90’s cheese and a plus slider (+1.84 runs/100 pitches), Sanchez has punched out 9.04 hitters per nine innings. However, his walk rate (5.26 BB/9) leaves owners pulling out their hair. Whether the 6-2, 190 pounder remains in Giants duds past the deadline remains to be seen, but he should continue taking regular turns in the rotation regardless.

Pablo Sandoval, Giants

Pablo is no stranger to the “Stock Up” section, but his scorching first-half deserves special mention. As a 22 year-old, Sandoval has posted a .406 wOBA, ripping the seams of the ball to the tune of a .333/.385/.578 line. While the 5-11, 245 pound corner infielder will never be called restrained at the plate, he has shown promising signs in terms of working the count. Sandoval’s walk rate has climbed from 2.7% in 2008 to 7.3% this year, with a drop in his percentage of swings outside of the strike zone (53.8% to 45.3%). As a result, Pablo’s first-pitch strike percentage has dipped from 70.8% to 59.4% (58% MLB average).

Sandoval has contributed 21.3 park-adjusted Batting Runs above average for the Giants. The rest of San Francisco’s usual starting lineup has posted a collective -18.5 Batting Runs. Let that sink in for a moment.

David Price, Rays

In 2009, Price has been a Three True Outcomes pitcher. While the abundance of whiffs (9.61 K/9) highlight the talent that made the Vanderbilt star the most celebrated pitching prospect in the minors, Price has also handed out free passes (6.34 BB/9) and souvenirs (1.43 HR/9) far too often. Perhaps Price has begun to turn the corner, as he outdueled Doc Halladay on July 9th (6 IP, 1 R, 1 BB, 7 K). The 23 year-old southpaw will likely toss the occasional stinker as he gains his big league footing, but there’s still every reason to think he’ll be an integral part of Tampa’s rotation. If Price can get ahead of hitters more frequently (his first-pitch strike percentage is just 53.9%), he should be able to garner more swings on pitches off the plate (his outside-swing percentage is only 18.6%, compared to the 25% MLB avg).

Ryan Ludwick, Cardinals

Formerly property of Oakland, Texas, Cleveland and Detroit, Ludwick had saw career stagnate as he dealt with the effects of a serious hip injury. The righty-hitting, lefty-chucking outfielder then revived his baseball ambitions in St. Louis, posting a .350 wOBA in 2007 and a monstrous .406 mark in 2008. While last year was almost assuredly a peak season, the 31 year-old Ludwick (Happy Birthday, Ryan!) has rebounded from some BABIP-induced valleys (.716 OPS, .156 BABIP in May, .622 OPS, .219 BABIP in June) to crush the ball for a 1.243 OPS in July. His production for the season (.357 wOBA, .264/.333/.496) is a good match for his ’07 work. ZiPS sees Ludwick performing slightly better from here on out (.368 wOBA, .273/.345/.510).

Stock Down

Jarrod Saltalamacchia, Rangers

Salty has left a bitter taste in the mouths of many this season. The 24 year-old, switch-hitting backstop was the best-known prospect in the July 2007, gift-that-keeps-on-giving Mark Teixeira swap. However, Neftali Feliz and Elvis Andrus are running circles around Saltalamacchia these days.

Salty didn’t show much pop in his trial with Texas last year (.319 wOBA, .244/.352/.365) and he whiffed like Chris Davis lite (37.4 K%), but he did work the count well (13.5 BB%). This year, he has kept the punch outs (36.3 K%) but dropped the patient approach (6.8 BB%). His O-Swing% has soared from 26.2% to 34.6%, with a rise in first-pitch strike% from 53% to 64%. The result? A putrid .288 wOBA. There’s still time for Salty, but he’s going to have to halt the Eric Munson impersonation.

Jason Giambi, Athletics

As Dave Cameron pointed out last month, the baseball community has an Adam Everett-like batting average when it comes to identifying when an older player is “done.” There’s usually a rush to attribute poor performance in baseball’s elder statesmen to a loss in skill, and sometimes that’s correct. But other times, Jim Edmonds or Gary Sheffield gets released and then starts partying like it’s 1999.

All of this is a long-winded way of saying that I’m not quite ready to write Giambi’s hardball eulogy; many of you will remember that he looked washed up a half-decade ago and then resumed raking. But the 38 year-old looks cooked. His performance against fastballs has cratered (-0.50 runs/100 pitches, compared to +1.01 in 2008), and things are only getting worse as the months roll by:

Giambi’s Runs/100 pitches against fastballs, by month

April: +0.24
May: -0.17
June: -0.56
July: -3.97

If one wishes to be optimistic, his .217 BABIP is nearly 40 points lower than 2008’s mark. Giambi could bounce back, but I wouldn’t bet on it. ZiPS projects a .213/.347/.404 line the rest of the way. That’s just not very useful at a position where the average player boasts a .276/.363/.485 triple-slash.

Ervin Santana, Angels

(I don’t have anything against the AL West-I swear!)

On the heels of a dominant 2008 season in which he compiled a 3.30 FIP, Santana has gotten roped for a 5.72 FIP in 40.1 innings. Pitching with a damaged elbow ligament, Ervin just isn’t nearly the same hurler who used a wicked mid-90’s fastball and biting slider to punch out 8.79 batters per nine innings in 2008. Santana’s velocity is down over 3 ticks this year (94.4 MPH to 91 MPH), with a 2-3 MPH dip on the slider (83.9 MPH to 81.4).

Santana’s heater has been the worst among any starter chucking at least 40 frames (a stunning -4.1 runs/100 pitches, after a +0.11 mark in ’08). Hitters are making more contact (84.2% contact rate, up from 77.1% in ’08) and swinging at fewer outside pitches (24.7% in ’09, 31.7% in ’08). Santana looks like damaged goods.

Kevin Millwood, Rangers

Millwood’s regression shouldn’t come as a complete surprise, as his ERA was far surpassing his peripherals. There’s still a sizable gap between his ERA (3.46) and FIP (4.73), but it has lessened after Millwood surrendered 17 earned runs over his past 17.1 innings. Texas’ slick leather (8th in team UZR) helps a pitch-to-contact hurler like Millwood, but he’s more serviceable mid-rotation starter than ace.

Dioner Navarro, Rays

The 25 year-old Navarro performed admirably for the Rays in 2008 (.330 wOBA), but the former Yankee and Dodger has plummeted to a .256 mark this season. He’s not getting many bounces (.245 BABIP), but Navarro’s plate discipline is non-existent (2.8 BB% in 2009, 7.4% in ’08). His outside-swing% is up from 23.2% to 27.2%, with a rise in first-pitch strike% from 52.8% to 57.5%. Navarro was worth 2.7 Wins Above Replacement in 2008, but he has been sub-replacement level in ’09 (-0.1 WAR).

For the purposes of the “Closer Report” (which will be a weekly feature), we’ll place the relief aces in one of three categories: Death Grip (these guys have no chance of relinquishing the closer’s role; think Mo Rivera), In Control (a good chance of continuing to rack up the saves) and Watch Your Back (the set-up man is planning a coup d’etat as we speak).

Death Grip

Jonathan Broxton, Dodgers

Broxton appeared just once this past week, and it was a rocky cameo to say the least. Big Jon allowed 3 runs and 3 walks against the Padres on July 5th. To put that in perspective, Broxton coughed up a total of 4 runs in April and May combined. His numbers for the year are still terrifying, as he leads all relievers in FIP (1.39) while placing ever so slightly behind teammate Ramon Troncoso in WPA (2.64 to 2.63). Broxton’s 14.75 K/9 ranks nearly three whole K’s per nine above second-place Octavio Dotel.

Heath Bell, Padres

The first-time All-Star selection worked twice this week, with a 1.2-inning save vs. the Dodgers on the fourth (he allowed 1 run, 1 H and 1 BB), and then tossing a scoreless inning in a non-save chance the following day. One would assume that Bell (5th in WPA, without giving up a homer in 36.1 frames) is on the trading block. He’s pretty darned good, but has more utility to the also-run club as a trade chip.

Francisco Rodriguez, Mets

K-Rod appeared once this week, allowing a homer to Manny Ramirez against the Dodgers on the 8th. The Queens closer is arguably in the midst of his worst season in the majors, despite posting his second-lowest ERA (1.77). Rodriguez’s FIP sits at a mediocre 3.69, the product of 9.07 K/9 and 5.09 BB/9. The lack of control is becoming a serious concern; this is the 4th straight year that K-Rod’s BB rate has increased, and he isn’t missing as many bats as he used to either. Opponents have responded by swinging at fewer pitches outside of the zone. Rodriguez’s O-Swing% has dropped from 30.2% in 2007 to 23.6% in 2009.

Trevor Hoffman, Brewers

Hoffman got into just one game this week, picking up a bumpy save (2 walks and 1 hit) against St. Louis on July 8th. Trevor walked one batter in his first 18 appearances, but he has issued 6 free passes in his last 7 trips to the mound. Hoffman still hasn’t given up a long ball in 24.1 innings pitched.

Chad Qualls, Diamondbacks

Qualls collected 3 saves in 4.1 scoreless innings this week. Hitters touched up Qualls more than usual in June as he fought through forearm tightness (85.1% contact rate that’s 6 percent above his 2009 average, with 8 R in 9.2 IP), but Arizona’s closer appears to be back on track.

In Control

Matt Capps, Pirates

Capps got into just one game this week, racking up a save vs. the ‘Stros on July 7th. He walked just two batters in 11 June innings and has pitched two-walkless frames in July, a happy development after Capps issued 9 walks in 15.2 frames during April and May. The Texan’s Zone% was 56.8% in June, after posting marks of 51.6% in April and May.

Huston Street, Rockies

Street soaked up 4 innings this week, allowing 1 run while collecting three saves. His WPA (1.46) is already higher than every full season other than his 2005 rookie campaign (3.70). Street’s Zone%, which dipped to a below-average 47.5 in 2008, is back up to 51.6% this year. That helps to explain how his walk rate has been shaved down from 3.47 in ’08 to 2.35 in 2009.

Brad Lidge, Phillies

Last year’s WPA leader (5.37) still ranks dead last in 2009 (-2.18) by a considerable margin. He collected two save vs. the Mets on the 4th and 5th, but Bad Lidge reared his ugly head again against the Reds on the 7th (2 H, 1 R, 1BB while taking the loss). Lidge did collect another save vs. Cincy yesterday. Opposing hitters have made contact with 85.7% of Lidge’s pitches within the zone, about 11 percent above his career average.

Francisco Cordero, Reds

Cordero collected two saves this week, with scoreless frames against the Cardinals on the 4th and the Phillies on the 7th. Cincy’s closer has a WPA (2.02) that places him among the top 10, but it’s been something of a high-wire act. Cordero’s 1.88 K/BB is his worst mark since 2000; a very low BABIP (.251) and HR/FB rate (3 percent) have veiled a drop in K/9 from 12.22 in 2007 to 7.50 in 2009.

Jose Valverde, Astros

Valverde picked up one save in three appearances this week, punching out 5 batters and surrendering 1 run in the process. Though Papa Grande has endured some long ball woes (17.4 HR/FB%), he also totes rates of 11.44 K/9 and 2.75 BB/9. Valverde’s mid-90’s gas hasn’t hit the mark often enough (-1.06 runs/100 pitches), but his mid-80’s splitter has been stellar (+2.10).

Ryan Franklin, Cardinals

Equipped with rugged facial hair and a brand-spankin’ new cutter, Franklin owns a microscopic ERA (0.83) and 20 saves in 21 chances. Still, color me very skeptical. While Franklin’s K rate (6.61) is higher than usual, his .209 BABIP, mind-bending 99.2% strand rate and low HR/FB rate (6.1%) portend to bumpier days ahead.

Brian Wilson, Giants

Wilson whiffed three while getting the save vs. Houston on July 5th, but the Marlins filleted him for 3 hits and two runs on the 6th (he still got the cheapie save anyway). By WPA, Wilson has been one of the worst 15 relievers in the bigs (-0.84). In sunnier news, his 2.8 K/BB ratio is a career-high.

Watch Your Back

Mike Gonzalez/Rafael Soriano, Braves

Soriano has picked up the last four save opportunities for the Braves, as Bobby Cox appears to be leading toward the man who ranks fourth in WPA (2.51) and 3rd in FIP (1.94). Gonzalez (0.80 WPA, 3.31 FIP) gave up 3 runs to the Nationals on the fourth, got two holds in scoreless frames on the 7th and 8th vs. the Cubs, then coughed up 2 more runs vs. the Rockies yesterday in his third straight day of pitching.

Kevin Gregg, Cubs

Watch out for: Carlos Marmol

Gregg got the save against the Braves on the 6th, then gave up 2 runs vs. Atlanta in a non-save situation on the 8th. Overall, Gregg holds a 0.70 WPA, with rates of 8.92 K/9 and 3.66 BB/9. Chicago’s stopper is using his low 80’s slider more than ever 30.6% of the time), though the breaker hasn’t been as effective this year (-0.41 runs/100 pitches, +0.70 in 2007 and 2008).

Matt Lindstrom (right elbow sprain) on the DL; Leo Nunez, Dan Meyer are filling in

It’s hard to say just who will get the call in the 9th for the Fish. Since Lindstrom hit the shelf, Meyer and Nunez have collected two saves apiece. In terms of 2009 performance, the back-from-the-dead Meyer (once a prized prospect for the Braves and A’s) has Nunez beat in FIP (3.58 to 4.38) and WPA (1.22 to 0.46). Meyers’ past as a top starting prospect is still apparent out of the ‘pen, as he has used three different pitches to quell hitters. His 91 MPH fastball (1.13 runs/100 pitches), mid-80’s slider (+3.24) and high-70’s change (+4.19) are all working right now. Nunez also uses the same three offerings often. His 94 MPH heater (+2.24) and mid-80’s slider (+2.34) are dynamite, while an oft-utilized hard changeup (-1.75) is getting hit hard.

Mike MacDougal, Nationals

MacDougal is fantasy baseball’s equivalent of “in case of emergency, break glass.” If you have no other ninth-inning options, then I suppose you might be desperate enough to use Washington’s “stopper.” Then again, you might just want to run out of that burning building instead. MacDougal’s K/BB ratio for the year is 10/19 in 21 innings. Sure, he throws hard (95.2 MPH), but that hasn’t stopped batters from making contact with 87% of his pitches.

This upcoming week features the All-Star break and there will be no two-start pitchers. Instead, I want to take this opportunity to try out something new here at RotoGraphs – a live chat.

To the best of my knowledge, this has not been done before at the site and we do not have special software for a regular chat. Instead, submit your questions as comments below and I will answer them in the same spot. Anything baseball related is fair game, from fantasy questions, to managerial queries to historical comparisons and a million other topics.

I will be here starting at 3 PM Eastern time and will stay at least 30 minutes, more if it proves fun. You can submit questions at any time but I will not answer before 3:00. As always, thanks for reading and I look forward to the chat.

For the purposes of the “Closer Report” (which will be a weekly feature), we’ll place the relief aces in one of three categories: Death Grip (these guys have no chance of relinquishing the closer’s role; think Mo Rivera), In Control (a good chance of continuing to rack up the saves) and Watch Your Back (the set-up man is planning a coup d’etat as we speak).

Death Grip

Mariano Rivera, Yankees

No Mo Runs: Rivera hasn’t seen a runner cross home plate on his watch since June 12th, a stretch of 10.1 innings in which he’s whiffed 11 and walked none. The Panama native has an obscene 43/3 K/BB ratio, with a 2.73 FIP that’s dropping like a lead balloon has his early-season homer woes subside. Rivera’s cutter is heating up:

Runs/100 for Rivera’s cutter:
April: +1.54
May: +0.57
June: +2.45
July: +6.13

Joe Nathan, Twins

There’s little to report on the Nathan front: Joe hasn’t gotten into game action since the Fourth of July, as the Bronx Bombers swept the Twins in a three-game set. Nathan’s FIP (1.88) is second among relievers, with his fastball (+3.05 runs/100), slider (+2.28) and curve (+1.70) firing on all cylinders.

Joakim Soria, Royals

Soria notched 4 saves this week, twirling 4.1 innings of scoreless relief vs. the White Sox, Tigers and Red Sox. He K’d 7 and walked no one. In between DL stints for a barking shoulder, Soria has posted rates of 11.74 K/9 and 2.74 BB/9, giving him a career-best 4.29 K/BB ratio. Soria’s contact rate is at a career-low 70.5%, and his First-Pitch Strike% is also the best of his big league tenure (64.5%, 58% MLB average).

Jonathan Papelbon, Red Sox

By no means has Papelbon been bad this season; he just hasn’t been the absolutely dominant, Irish-jigging force that we have become accustomed to seeing. Boston’s stopper has a 3.89 FIP, the product of an inflated walk rate (4.26 BB/9). His percentage of pitches within the strike zone has dropped over 4 percent from 2008, and his signature mid-to-high 90’s cheese has been merely good (+0.71 runs/100 pitches; +2.23 career average).

Of course, all of this worrying could be for naught. Fretting too much about a half-season’s worth of pitching from a reliever is a good way to get yourself in trouble by selling low. Relief performance is notoriously volatile; Papelbon could resume his fire-breathing, door-slamming performance in the second half and it wouldn’t be surprising at all.

Bobby Jenks, White Sox

Jenks quietly turned in an excellent first half, with 8.79 K/9 and 1.88 BB/9. An inflated HR/FB rate (18.5%) has left his line looking merely good, but Bobby has reduced his percentage of contact within the zone nearly 10 percent from 2008 (93.1% to 83.6%). He’s missing bats, displaying sharp command and still burning worms (54.2 GB%). That’s a recipe for success.

Frank Francisco, Rangers

Francisco picked up a clean save against the Rays on the 5th, but he served up a dinger to Juan Rivera in a non-save situation vs. the Angels on the 7th (his second HR allowed since being activated from the DL). The 6-3, 230 pounder might be throwing too many strikes in July. His Zone% is 62.3 this month, and opponents have made contact with 90.6% of those offerings within the zone (his Zone% for the year is 53.7, and his Z-Contact% is 80.8). Even with the rough return, Frank holds a 4.29 K/BB for the year, with a 1.91 Win Probability Added that ranks just outside the top 10.

Andrew Bailey, Athletics

Bailey got some well-deserved rest this week. Though fantasy owners are probably gritting their teeth at Oakland’s moribund offense (the rookie stopper collected a 1.1 inning save vs. Cleveland on the 5th, and hasn’t pitched since), Bailey is on pace to toss 94 frames in 2009. That’s probably not as worrisome as it sounds, though, as Bailey is a converted starter. Four of the 25 year-old’s nine saves have tasked him with getting at least four outs. Imagine that: using your best reliever when the situation calls for it. Oakland isn’t afraid to call on Bailey to get a tough out in the 8th and then pitch the 9th, a good thing for A’s fans and Bailey owners alike.

In Control

J.P. Howell, Rays

Dan Wheeler got a save yesterday afternoon, but don’t worry too much. J.P. needed a day off after working back-to-back games against the Jays. The best reliever no one talks about, Howell’s bass-ackwards curveball and changeup-oriented arsenal has produced rates of 10.67 K/9 and 3.48 BB/9. The curve (+2.01 runs/100 pitches) and change (+3.50) have been devastating, perhaps allowing Howell’s mid-80’s heat to play up (+0.97) as hitters sit off-speed.

Brian Fuentes, Angels

Fuentes picked up his 24th save of the season on July 5th, but hasn’t taken the bump since. The former Colorado southpaw has lowered his walk rate for third season (from 3.38 BB/9 in 2007 to 2.76 BB/9 in ’09), a curious development given that his percentage of pitches within the zone has dipped from 52% in ’07 to 47.1% this year. Fuentes’ slurvy breaking pitch hasn’t been sharp (-1.19 runs/100), but his 90 MPH fastball (+1.91) is perplexing opponents.

Scott Downs, Blue Jays

Downs returns from the DL just as the Blue Jays unceremoniously dump former closer B.J. Ryan (not that Ryan’s diminished high-80’s fastball and frisbee slider posed much of a threat). The 33 year-old Downs had a superb first half (28/5 K/BB, 2.14 FIP in 27.1 IP). The question going forward will be: can Downs continue to get batters to chase his high-80’s sinker and big-breaking curve? One might be inclined to think Downs’ reduced walk rate (1.65 BB/9, 3.42 BB/9 career) is the product of sharper control, but that’s not the case. His Zone% is just 44.3. Rather, his O-Swing% is at 33%, 11 percent above his career mark and 8 percent above 2008’s clip.

Kerry Wood, Indians

Wood picked up a save vs. the A’s on Independence Day, then another versus the White Sox yesterday. It will take a long time for Kerry’s numbers to recover, though. For the year, he has issued 4.85 BB/9, with a -0.81 WPA. Believe it or not, Wood’s 96 MPH fastball has been one of the least effective in the majors (-1.47 runs/100). After garnering a 31.3 Outside-Swing% in 2008, Wood has baited batters to chase just 18.2% of the time in Cleveland (24.9% MLB avg.). That’s the third-lowest rate among relievers.

George Sherrill, Orioles

After a superb June (11 IP, 8/2 K/BB, 1 R), Sherrill’s July has been a mixed bag. He has surrendered 3 runs in 3.2 frames, with 5 K’s and 3 walks. The 32 year-old has a career-best 1.40 WPA and walk rate (3.06 BB/9). Is it time for the O’s to cash out?

David Aardsma, Mariners

Aardsma picked up a spotless save against one of his former employers (Boston) on July 4th, but the control-challenged righty then had a disastrous appearance against Baltimore on the 8th (no outs recorded, 4 H, 5 R). He collected another SV versus the Rangers yesterday. Aardsma remains a good candidate to regress in the second half.

Watch Your Back

Fernando Rodney, Tigers

Watch out for:Joel Zumaya

After a turbulent June (12 IP, 13 H, 9 R, 10/10 K/BB), Rodney has posted a 7/1 K/BB ratio in July. Still, Rodney’s K rate (8.05 per nine) is down, his Zone% (48.3) is a career-low, and opponents are making contact with his pitches within the zone at the highest rate (82.8%) since 2002.

Every Thursday throughout the season, Minor Impacts takes a look at some of the hottest minor league players that could have impacts at the Major League Level in the near future. Some of the players we’ve educated you on before their promotions include: Vince Mazzaro, Andrew McCutchen, Gordon Beckham, Robert Manuel, Marc Rzepczynski, Aaron Poreda, Jake Fox, Nolan Reimold, and Daniel Bard.

Alex Avila: The Detroit Tigers organization does not have a very deep minor-league system so it’s an exciting day when a prospect exceeds expectation. That is exactly what Avila has done since signing as a 2008 fifth round draft pick out of the University of Alabama. The catcher has built off of a strong junior year in college to become an above-average offensive catcher. After hitting .305 in his debut season, Avila has continued to bat .300 in 2009, while also adding more power with 21 doubles and eight homers in 247 at-bats. He’s striking out a bit (23.5 K%) but he’s also showing good patience (13.9 BB%). Add in that Avila is a left-handed batter and you have the heavy side of a platoon with either Gerald Laird or Dusty Ryan (in the very near future).

Lance Zawadzki: The San Diego Padres organization had eight picks before the third round of the 2007 draft so it looked for some ways to save money in later rounds. Shortstop Zawadzki was nabbed in the fourth round as a senior at a small NAIA college (Having transferred away from San Diego State after a terrible junior year). The infielder was one of those players who always had a ton of potential but just could not put everything together – in part due to injuries. Zawadzki’s first full pro season in 2008 was modest but he’s broken out in a big way in 2009. He hit .276/.360/.552 with 10 homers in 145 at-bats in high-A ball. The 24-year-old prospect was then promoted to double-A where he’s hitting .346/.428/.512 with three homers in 127 at-bats. Zawadzki also stole 28 bases in 31 attempts in 2008, so he has some speed. Given the lack of middle infield options on the big league club, this under-the-radar prospect could see time in San Diego before the year is out.

Kila Ka’aihue: It’s safe to say that the love that the Kansas City Royals organization received over the winter for its “shrewd moves” is over. The move that received the most scrutiny was probably the acquisition of one-dimensional hitter Mike Jacobs. One of the most puzzling parts of the decision to add Jacobs was that the club already had a breakout, MLB-ready first baseman in Ka’aihue, who batted .315 with 37 homers (and excellent on-base skills) between double-A and triple-A in 2008. His batting average is down this year to .265, but he still has more walks than strikeouts (1.03 BB/K) and he’s hitting for more power than Jacobs (ISO: .228 vs .186). Ka’aihue would probably be of much more value to the big league club right now, but the organization would be admitting it made a huge mistake with the Jacobs acquisition.

Brian Matusz: We looked at Matusz earlier this season in this column and the picture has only gotten brighter for the left-handed pitching prospect. The bad news for the former No. 1 pick, though, is that the Baltimore Orioles organization is absolutely stacked with upper-level pitching talent. Regardless, the big league club is not going to be able to ignore him for long. After posting a 2.11 ERA (2.91 FIP) in 11 high-A starts, Matusz has posted a 0.34 ERA (1.57 FIP) in four double-A starts. He’s allowed just 11 hits and six walks in 26.1 innings of work. The southpaw has also struck out 32 batters and has yet to allow a home run in double-A. The 22-year-old hurler has more than justified his fourth-overall selection in the 2008 draft.

Zach Braddock: One of the hardest things to do with talented prospects is to be patient. The Milwaukee Brewers organization has been rewarded for its patience with Braddock, a 2005 18th round selection out of community college. The southpaw was inconsistent in his first three pro seasons, while showing flashes of brilliance. Moved from the starting rotation to the bullpen in 2009, he’s taken off and been able to stay healthy. Braddock posted a 1.09 ERA (1.74 FIP) in 24.2 innings of work in high-A, while posting a walk rate of just 1.46 BB/9 and a strikeout rate of 14.59 K/9. He’s continued to deal after a promotion to double-A. In 9.2 innings, Braddock has allowed nine hits and three walks, while striking out 13 batters. His repertoire includes an above-average fastball that touches 93-94 mph out of the pen, as well as a good slider and an occasional changeup.

Sam Demel: A move to the bullpen while at Texas Christian University really made Demel’s career. He’s taken off as a reliever in the A’s organization after signing as a third-round pick from the 2007 draft. The 23-year-old right-hander struck out 90 batters in 67 high-A innings in 2008. He then posted a 0.61 ERA with a strikeout rate of 7.98 K/9 in 29.1 double-A innings in 2009. Demel has since been promoted to triple-A, where he has yet to allow a run in four appearances. He’s given up three hits (but four walks) and struck out eight in 5.2 innings. With a little more control, Demel could be a future late-game reliever for the A’s organization.

Andruw Jones bashed three home runs last evening, taking his total up to 14 long balls for the season. Jones’ triple-slash line rests at .250/.348/.581, with a wOBA of .392. On a per-at-bat basis, Andruw has by far been Texas’ most productive hitter. Can you believe this is the same fellow who had to settle for a one-year, $500K deal this past winter?

One year ago, Jones was public enemy number one in Los Angeles. The ink was barely dry on the Curacao native’s two-year, $36.2M pact before the questions started rolling in. Jones looked to be following the David Wells training regimen, and a balky knee bothered him throughout the season. Jones produced one of the most execrable lines that you’ll ever see while in L.A. In 238 trips to the dish, Andruw “hit” .158/.256/.249, which translates to a wOBA of .234. For reference, Tony Pena Jr.’s career wOBA is .238.

Jones’ plummet was difficult to foresee. He entered the 2008 campaign at a listed age of 31. Subjectively, a player with a broad-based skill set such as Andruw’s would seem to be a good candidate to age well. During a “down” 2007 season, he was worth 3.6 Wins Above Replacement, a near-All-Star level of performance. Yet, he just couldn’t hit anything. It scarcely mattered what the opposition decided to toss, Jones would be headed back to the dugout accompanied by a smattering of boo’s:

Jones’ runs/100 pitches, 2008:

Fastball: -1.01
Slider: -1.38
Cutter: -7.67
Curveball: -3.49
Changeup: -2.86
Splitter: -7.51

Despite his macabre work on the West Coast, the Rangers decided to give Jones an opportunity to make the club. Texas’ no-risk acquisition has rewarded them, big time. Jones had severe issues making contact last season (36.4 K%), but he has reduced his K rate to a more reasonable 25% this season. After grounding out 47.8% of the time with the Dodgers (well above his 41.4% average dating back to 2002), Andruw has rolled over the ball 36.9% in 2009. There’s a big rebound in his number of flyballs hit (38.8% in ’08 to 46.7% in ’09).

Jones has jumped on fastballs this year, with a run value of +2.14/100 pitches. He’s also in the black against sliders (+0.84) and changeups (+0.90), while posting negative values against cutters (-0.52) and curves (-2.36).

In less than 200 trips to the plate, with limited time in the field, Andruw has already managed to accumulate 1.4 WAR. Jones has some relatively minor performance bonuses based on PA’s, but he has delivered a massive return on investment for the Rangers. It’s probably too late to snatch Jones off the waiver wire, but he looks locked in right now. Expecting this level of offense is likely unreasonable. But if he continues to hit anywhere near this well, the Rangers are simply going to have to find more AB’s for the former Braves star. Jones stumbled badly last year, but he’s back to being an asset.