Twins aficionado Aaron Gleeman made a post on NBCSports.com’s “Circling The Bases” this afternoon, examining Joe Mauer’s recent hot streak. The All-Star catcher has hit .417/.500/.819 with eight home runs and five doubles in 19 games since coming off the disabled list. Is that kind of power sustainable for a guy who has finished with a double-digit home run total just once in his career? Gleeman isn’t so sure.

“Mauer hasn’t become more aggressive by abandoning his ultra-patient approach at the plate and he isn’t suddenly pulling the ball consistently,” wrote Gleeman. “Instead he’s still taking tons of pitches and going the other way with most of the pitches that he decides to swing at, but the fly balls to left and center field just seem to be traveling a little further. All of which makes me think that he’s probably not turning into a slugger in front of our eyes.” Mauer is simply making great contact, and should continue to do so. But it would be irresponsible to expect him to keep driving balls out of the park.

FanGraphs’ own David Golebiewski had the same idea in his “Stock Watch” write-up earlier this week: “I know- Mauer has long been a fantasy darling, as a line-drive hitting backstop with excellent control of the zone. But the 26 year-old’s power outburst to begin the ‘09 season bears mentioning. … Don’t expect him to suddenly go all Mike Piazza on the league, but Mauer would only add to his immense value if he could loft 20 big flys in addition to his high-contact, patient act at the dish.”

Mauer was moved into the No. 2 spot in the lineup yesterday and continued to rake as the Twins walloped the White Sox 20-1. Despite the excellent returns, manager Ron Gardenhire said after the game that it won’t be a permanent move. That bodes well for Mauer’s RBI total. “”I would really like to have a guy [in the two-spot] that handles the bat — a guy that can bunt, a guy that can run, all those things,” Gardenhire told the Minneapolis Star-Tribune. “That’s the way it’s supposed to be in the lineup. Alexi Casilla should be there.”

Mauer missed all of April, yet it appears he’ll top most of his career highs, especially in home runs and RBI. Let’s hope he never slows down.

On to the links…

Tim Heaney of KFFL.com reviews some of the shakier closer situations from around the league.

Andy Behrens of Yahoo! Sports believes the Giants’ Jesus Guzman is a “call-up of interest.” The 24-year-old was hitting 363/.391/.592 at Triple-A Fresno and should see plenty of DH opportunities as we enter interleague play.

Fresh off a two-homer game earlier this week, Kendry Morales tops the list in Matt Stroup of Rotoworld’s most recent “Waiver Wired” column.

Have something you think others should see? Shoot me an e-mail or come join me on Twitter.

San Francisco Giants righty Matt Cain is a hurler who many considered to be on the cusp of a major breakout. His performances during his first three years in the rotation were very good, to be sure, with Fielding Independent ERA’s ranging from 3.78 to 3.96 and strikeout-to-walk ratios hovering slightly over 2/1. Still, the sturdy 6-3 frame, low-90’s gas, hard slider, slow curve and changeup hinted that Cain could possibly reach another level.

If one were to take just a quick glance at Cain’s 2009 season, that breakout would appear to be in progress. After all, the 24 year-old’s notoriously poor run support that produced Maroth-like Win-Loss records hasn’t doomed him, as he sits at 4-1. His ERA checks in at a tidy 2.65 to boot. He’s an ace now, right?

Not so fast. Cain might possess the shiny W-L tally and a lower ERA than Lincecum, but in most respects, he has actually taken a step backward this season. Cain’s FIP is 4.85 in 51 frames, by far the highest mark of his career. His strikeout rate, which peaked at 8.45 batters per nine innings in 2006 and sat around the mid-sevens in ’07 and ’08, is just 6.00 in 2009.

The K rate wouldn’t be the end of the world if Cain had made commensurate improvement in terms of limiting the free passes. Unfortunately, he’s as wild as ever: 4.41 walks per nine innings. Batters seem to have taken note of Cain’s inability to locate, as opponents have offered at just 18.9% of pitches thrown outside of the strike zone (22.7% career average, 24.3% MLB average).

A true power pitcher when he broke into the big leagues (sitting between 93.2-93.4 MPH from 2005 to 2007), Cain now has a lower-octane fastball (91.6 MPH). In addition, his slider doesn’t appear to be the same knock-out pitch these days.

While it hasn’t surrendered any velocity, Cain’s slider isn’t moving away from righty batters like it used to. In 2007, the breaker tailed away from righties 3.8 inches more than a pitch thrown without spin. In 2008, that figure dipped to 3.4 (the league average for a righty pitcher) and comes in at just 2.6 inches this season.

The negative trend with Cain’s slider is also apparent through FanGraphs’ new pitch linear weights section (seriously, how cool is this stuff?): the slider was 1.37 runs above average per 100 pitches in ’07, 1.23 in ’08 and actually comes in at -2.33 runs per 100 pitches in 2009. Not coincidentally, Cain’s usage of the pitch has declined each year: 16.5% in 2007, 13.8% in 2008 and 10% this year. Those sliders have been replaced with more curveballs (from 8.6% in 2007 to 16.8% in 2009), which come in as below average (-0.76 runs per 100 pitches this season, -1.92 per 100 pitches in 2008).

Given these trends, it’s not especially surprising to see that Cain’s performance against same-side batters has trailed off (numbers courtesy of Baseball-Reference):

Cain vs. RHB:
2007: .224/.291/.370
2008: .235/.312/.378
2009: .293/.404/.500

None of this is to say that Cain is a bad pitcher, or that he won’t show improvement as the year goes on. However, his current levels aren’t anywhere near sustainable if he continues to post similar peripherals; he can’t continue to post a .257 BABIP or a near-90 percent strand rate. Cain is good, but he’s not the great pitcher that his surface stats would indicate. If you can cash in now by selling high, by all means do.

Tampa Bay Rays third baseman Evan Longoria is a special talent, so it’s not really fair to compare other players to him. With that said, though, the 2008 American League Rookie of the Year’s performance last season has left a lasting impression that no rookie has been able to come close to in 2009. One-third of the way through the 2009 season, there are no clear-cut favorites for the Rookie of the Year award in either the American League or the National League.

In fact, two of the early favorites for the award, both outfielders, have already been demoted to the minors in Toronto’s Travis Snider, and Florida’s Cameron Maybin. The pre-season AL favorites, LHP David Price (Tampa Bay) and C Matt Wieters (Baltimore), have not been recalled from the minors yet. Time will be running out soon for those two players, as it gets harder and harder to justify giving the award to someone if they only play a partial season in the Majors.

The Favorite(s): Elvis Andrus has been one of the key reasons for the Rangers’ first-place play so far this season. The 20-year-old shortstop has displayed solid defense while also contributing a respectable offensive line of .270/.311/.417 in 35 games. If he showed a willingness to walk a little more and use his speed on the bases, Andrus could run away with the award. Japanese import Koji Uehara has been the Orioles’ best starter so far in 2009. He’s given up a few too many hits, but the right-hander has walked just nine batters in 47.2 innings of work. Uehara is already 34 years of age, though, so there likely isn’t any upside here. Another right-handed rookie in the American League has a ton of upside. Detroit’s Rick Porcello is just 20 years of age and he is one of the rare rookies this season that has shown vast improvements as the year progresses. His strikeout rate is still a little troubling at just 5.67 K/9 but he’s struck out five batters in each of his last two starts (10 Ks in 11 IP). Porcello is also inducing a ton of ground-ball outs.

The New Contestants: Baltimore recently promoted outfielder Nolan Reimold to the Majors after he hit .394/.485/.743 in 31 games. He’s had at least one hit in six of his seven MLB games so far, and he has two multiple-hit contests. Cleveland outfielder Matt LaPorta has a slightly higher ceiling than Reimold, but he’s had a slower start to his MLB career. Through 11 games, he’s hitting just .206 with one home run. Left-handed pitcher Derek Holland has been pitching well in the Rangers’ bullpen, which has earned him his first first MLB start this weekend. He has a 4.85 ERA in seven appearances, but five of the seven earned runs he’s allowed came in one outing.

The Long-Shot: Matt Palmer, a 30-year-old rookie, will not wow you with his stuff. The right-hander works in the high 80s with his fastball and relies on pitching to contact with a cutter. He has, though, allowed just 23 hits in 31.2 innings of work and he’s recorded wins in each of his five starts. Not bad for a minor league free agent pick-up out of the Giants organization.

The Favorite(s): St. Louis Cardinals outfielder Colby Rasmus is currently the NL RoY favorite almost by default, as no other player has stepped up in pursuit of the award. Rasmus is playing good defense and showing some power (.155 ISO), but he’s hitting just .250 with a .328 on-base percentage. The left-handed hitter is batting just .129 versus southpaws.

The New Contestants: Arizona recently promoted outfielder Gerardo Parra from double-A, where he was hitting very well (.361 avg, more BBs than Ks). He’s now hitting .333 with two homers in seven big-league games. Second baseman Chris Coghlan has been playing all over the field for Florida and has seen a fair bit of time in the outfield now that Maybin has been demoted. He’s likely the second baseman of the future, though, when Dan Uggla gets too expensive. Infielder Adam Rosales is another player who can play all over the field. He was promoted to fill-in at third base after incumbent Edwin Encarnacion went down with an injury in Cincinnati. Rosales was hitting .421 in 17 triple-A games, but he’s down to .240 in 20 MLB contests.

The Long-Shot: A 14th-round selection from the 1999 draft, Bobby Scales spent 10 seasons in the minors, mostly with San Diego. A career line of .285/.375/.432 was not enough to get him a chance in the Majors, in part due to poor defense as he played both the infield (mostly second) and the outfield. Scales spent parts of seven seasons in triple-A. He is a long shot for the NL RoY award because his playing time will be limited in Chicago.

Everyone is happy when one of their pitchers is scheduled for two starts in a week. But that is not always a good thing. Here are five pitchers you may be on the fence about (or should be on the fence) putting into your lineup for Week 8.

Fausto Carmona – In three of his four seasons in the majors, including this one, Carmona’s ERA has been above five. This year he has as many walks as strikeouts. And while his LD% (18.8) and FB% (24.4) look very good, they are the worst marks of his career. Instead of wondering if you should start him, perhaps you should be scanning the waiver wire looking for his replacement.

Scott Kazmir – He is owned in 95 percent of CBS Sports leagues and was a starter in 64 percent of them last week. And he’s been terrible in his last five starts. His velocity is down under 90 for the first time in his career, his command has gotten worse (5.72 BB/9) and his SwSTR% is nearly half of what it was a year ago, down to 6.4 percent. Move him to the bench so you don’t get stuck with two bad starts.

John Maine – While Johan Santana has been struggling for run support, the Mets’ bats come alive when Maine is on the mound. For the season, the Mets have scored 5.77 runs per game for Maine and in his last five games they’ve given him an average of 6.6 runs. Maine has pitched well in four of those last five games and has picked up three wins in that span. He gets two starts at home this week, facing the Nationals and the Marlins.

Sean Marshall – His FIP is a run higher than his actual ERA due in large part to his poor HR rate. But Marshall faces the Pirates and the Dodgers this week, two teams that are below-average in hitting homers. Despite giving up five HR in his last four starts, Marshall has pitched well enough to give the Cubs a chance to win each of them.

Brad Penny – With an ERA above six, Penny hits the road this week to face Toronto, which leads the league in runs scored, and Minnesota, which just put up 20 runs in one game. Penny’s velocity is fine but he’s not getting nearly as many swings on balls out of the strike zone. In 2007 he had a 29 percent O-Swing% and this year it’s down to 17.5 percent. And when they do swing, he’s not getting as many misses, either, as his 5.1 percent SwStr% is a career-low. Not surprisingly, Penny’s 4.60 K/9 is the worst mark of his career.

Other scheduled two-start pitchers in Week 8 are listed below. Please remember that these are projected pitchers and changes can and will happen between now and next week.

Verlander, Garza, Gallardo, Vazquez, Dempster, W. Rodriguez, Harang, Lester, E. Santana, Liriano, E. Jackson, Danks, Carpenter, Volstad, Millwood, Maholm, Meche, De la Rosa, D. Davis, Harrison, Sanchez, Hughes, Guthrie, Cecil, Lannan, Blackburn, Braden, Stults, Medlen, Moyer, Pavano, Anderson, Gaudin, Augenstein, Jakubauskas, Milton, Eaton.

Check back Sunday night for an update of two-start pitchers.

Now, I would like to take a step back and provide some accountability for previous picks. There needs to be a two-week time lag because last week’s pitchers have yet to complete their second start. So here are my selections for Week 6 and how they did.

Slowey – Advised to sit. W, 10 K, 1.98 ERA, 1.24 WHIP (2 starts)
Masterson – Advised to start. 9 K, 2.92 ERA, 1.46 WHIP (2)
Pelfrey – Advised to start 5 K, 2.77 ERA, 1.15 WHIP (2)
Zimmerman – Advised to start. 14 K, 8.18 ERA, 1.73 WHIP (2)
Hampton – Advised to sit. W, 3 K, 7.50 ERA, 1.50 WHIP (1)

Prior to the start of the 2009 season, the thought of comparing Livan Hernandez and Randy Johnson was ludicrous. Mets fans rolled their eyes when the club signed Hernandez while Giants fans were quite pleased when the team added Johnson. To support this belief, Johnson had an ADP of 141 while Hernandez did not crack the top 348 players listed over at Mock Draft Central.

Here were the fantasy stats for both players in 2008:

RJ – 11 W, 3.91 ERA, 173 K, 1.24 WHIP
LH – 13 W, 6.05 ERA, 67 K, 1.53 WHIP

To further drive home how big the gulf between these two players was last year, RotoTimes had Johnson with a $7.19 final dollar value compared to a minus $14.92 for Hernandez.

Right now each pitcher has made eight starts and here are their fantasy stats:

RJ – 3 W, 6.86 ERA, 42 K, 1.55 WHIP
LH – 3 W, 4.93 ERA, 25 K, 1.47 WHIP

RotoTimes values

RJ – minus $16.59
LH – minus $11.66

Many people believe that Johnson will turn things around while next to no one believes in Hernandez. With Johnson, they’ll point to his BABIP or his HR/FB and talk about regression or they’ll talk about other metrics and see how similar they are to last year and conclude that a return to the Johnson of old is just around the corner.

One area where there is a big difference is in pitch selection. Overall, Johnson threw 51.4 percent fastballs last year, compared to 48.8 percent this season. With his slider it is 40.4 percent this year compared to 35.2 percent in 2008. But if we look at what Johnson was doing at the end of last season, we get an even bigger difference. These numbers come from Dan Brooks’ wonderful site.

	FB	CH	SL	CB	SP
9/1	66	12	3	 	
9/13	61	8	9		
9/18	60	15	3	2	
9/23	54	10	26		5
9/28	65	11	4	1	
Pct     75	14	11	<1	<1

He was throwing his fastball nearly seven times as often as his slider. The two outings where he threw more than a handful of sliders, his average vertical break was over three. It was 3.43 on 9/13 and 3.03 on 9/23.

(Another thing that may jump out at you is that FanGraphs does not show Johnson throwing a changeup last year. My best guess is that what Brooks labels as a changeup FanGraphs categorizes as a splitter. This does not affect the fastball-slider ratio.)

Flash forward to this year and Johnson has been all over the map with the vertical break on his slider. His first three starts it was 2.89 then 5.54 then 2.84. And since then it’s been even more erratic. Here are Johnson’s starts since April 25th:

	IP	ER	BB	V-Break
4/25	3.1	2	7	1.79
5/1	7	0	0	4.16
5/6	5.2	7	3	2.16
5/11	5	4	0	2.53
5/16	4	7	0	2.22

If we look at the Pitch Type Linear Weights, we can see the deterioration of Johnson’s slider. Since an injury-shortened season in 2003, here are his yearly wSL (which stands for runs above average with his slider):

2004 – 32.5
2005 – 24.1
2006 – 14.9
2007 – 10.1 (injury shortened)
2008 – 5.2
2009 – negative 1.0

Johnson’s command was poor in April (13 BB in 19 IP) but very good in May (3 BB in 21.2 IP). His BABIP was .268 in April and .394 so far this month. Perhaps Johnson’s command and BABIP having an inverse relationship is an insignificant small sample size fluke. Or perhaps his slider is no longer a reliable pitch and he has to go back to throwing more changeups/splitters. Or maybe at age 45 he is done as a worthwhile fantasy pitcher.

One can count on the fingers of two hands the number of pitchers who have thrown 100 innings at age 45 in MLB history. Most of them are like Jamie Moyer, crafty soft tossers. The best comparison to Johnson is Nolan Ryan. Here are the fantasy stats for Ryan at age 44 and 45, when he made 27 starts both seasons.

1991 – 12 W, 2.91 ERA, 203 K, 1.006 WHIP
1992 – 5 W, 3.72 ERA, 157 K, 1.316 WHIP

All great pitchers reach the end of the road. Ryan was done after 13 starts and a career-high 4.88 ERA in 1993. If a pitcher in his prime had Johnson’s 2009 numbers after eight starts, regression would be the most likely occurrence. But perhaps this is not bad luck but rather the new level of performance for the Big Unit. Time will tell.

Now let’s look at Hernandez.

He had another fine outing last night, going seven innings and allowing just one run. The offense took the night off for him and he wound up with a no-decision in a game the Mets went on to lose. That brings the team’s record in starts by Hernandez to 5-3. He certainly pitched well enough to win last night and in another team loss, the bullpen gave up four runs and allowed an inherited runner to score that went on Hernandez’ record.

The alleged 34-year-old Hernandez, the pitcher no one wanted, has given his team a chance to win in seven of his eight games and he has four Quality Starts this season (Johnson: 2).

Hernandez claimed in Spring Training that his knee was 100 percent. This year his average fastball is up nearly a mile per hour (83.7-84.6). Additionally, Hernandez has thrown his slider more often (16.6%-21.2%) and with better results, as his wSL this season is 2.2 after being a negative 10.2 last year. This has led to a SwStr% of 5.5 in 2009 for Hernandez after it was 3.8 last year with Minnesota and 3.0 in Colorado.

With a .316 BABIP (career rate .310), 71.7 percent strand rate (career: 72.4), HR/9 of 1.18 (career: 1.05) and 4.65 FIP (career: 4.45), Hernandez has not been the recipient of a huge amount of luck. The numbers stand out in stark contrast to what he accomplished last year but the knee injury could at least partially explain 2008’s awful numbers.

Right now, Hernandez and Johnson are only worthwhile in deep NL-only leagues. Hernandez is healthy and basically pitching to his career averages in the four metrics listed above. There have been no reports of an injury to Johnson, but he is pitching far worse than was expected coming into the season. Before you repeat the regression mantra, track what he does with both his command and his slider in his next few outings.

Every Thursday throughout the season, Minor Impacts takes a look at some of the hottest minor league players that could have impacts at the Major League Level in the near future.

Brian Matusz: The 2009 MLB amateur draft is just around the corner, so let’s take a look at one of the top picks from 2008 that has been absolutely dealing in high-A ball. Left-handed starter Brian Matusz is probably ready for the challenge of double-A, but Baltimore has been cautious with its top prospects in the last couple of years (including Matt Wieters and Jake Arrieta). Matusz currently has allowed 42 hits in 46.2 innings of work but his strikeout rate is really impressive at 11.57 K/9. His walk rate is OK at 3.63 BB/9. In his last three games, the southpaw has allowed six walks (including four in one game) but he’s kept hitters to just 14 hits in 19.2 innings, with 28 Ks.

Aaron Poreda: Like Matusz, Aaron Poreda is another former first-round draft pick. He’s taken a little longer to get the hang of pro ball, but he’s having a very nice season in double-A for the White Sox. In fact, it’s a little surprising that he hasn’t received a promotion to triple-A, after spending half of 2008 at the same minor league level – but it’s probably the base-on-balls. After walking 22 batters in 87.2 double-A innings in ’08, Poreda has issued 19 free passes in 33.1 innings this season. On the plus side, though, he has allowed just 23 hits and zero home runs. A two-pitch hurler, Poreda’s slider is just an OK pitch and it’s his fastball that will earn him a big-league job, as it has touched 100 mph. It’s probably about time Chicago bit the bullet and placed the big left-hander in the bullpen and began to groom him as Bobby Jenks‘ successor.

Hector Rondon: This right-hander burst upon the scene in 2008 and has continued to grow into one of the Indians’ top prospects. Hector Rondon currently has a 1.95 ERA (2.61 FIP) in double-A and has allowed 29 hits in 32.1 innings of work. His walk rate is at just 1.95 BB/9, down from an already respectable 2.61 from 2008. Rondon’s strikeout rate has dropped a bit from last year’s 9.00 K/9 but it’s still solid at 7.79 K/9. Impressively, he’s also allowed just one home run despite allowing more fly-ball outs than ground-ball outs, which is the one thing he really needs to work on to take his game to the next level.

Josh Thole: Let’s go off the board now and talk about a couple players you probably have not heard much about. As a 13th round draft pick out of an Illinois high school in 2005, Josh Thole has understandably flown under the radar for a while. His blip began to show up on the radar in 2008 when he hit .300 in high-A ball. The catcher cannot hide any longer, though. Thole is currently hitting .349/.418/.476 in 32 double-A games at the age of 22. He’s also a left-handed hitting catcher, which is extremely valuable and somewhat rare. He’s still raw behind the plate though, having played mostly first base prior to 2008. Thole is showing signs of improving, as he has yet to make an error behind the dish and he’s improved his throwing, going from a caught-stealing rate of 22% in ’08 to 42% so far in ’09.

Cyle Hankerd: This talented outfielder is getting back on track. Cyle Hankerd had a dominating pro debut in 2006 after being selected out of USC in the third round of the draft. He hit more than .370 with 12 home runs in half a season and ended the year in high-A ball. The shine came off Hankerd over the next two seasons though, as he struggled to hit for power and his batting average kept dipping lower and lower. Repeating double-A in 2009, he’s starting to show signs of taking off again. The 24-year-old prospect is hitting .362/.434/.543 with an ISO of .181 in 36 games. Hankerd had wrist problems in 2007, which resulted in surgery. It often takes players about two years to recover from that type of injury, so the Arizona prospect’s surge could be related to finally being healthy. Although he has just three homers, Hankerd also has 12 doubles in 116 at-bats, which is just five fewer than he had in 436 at-bats last season. As long as he continues to show some sock in his bat, Hankerd has the chance to be at least a league-average left fielder.

Give the Guy a Chance: Cleveland’s Jordan Brown just cannot catch a break. The first baseman has been stuck in an organization that has had Travis Hafner and Ryan Garko blocking both the first base and designated hitter positions in the Majors. Then the club brought in left-fielder Matt LaPorta, a top offensive prospect from Milwaukee, whose best position is probably 1B or DH. Brown has a career minor league line of .303/.373/.464 in parts of five seasons since being selected out of the University of Arizona in the fourth round of the 2005 amateur draft. The biggest knock on Brown is his lack of power, but he has a similar skill set that that of former Indians first baseman Sean Casey, who put together a very solid 12-year MLB career. The left-handed batter is currently in triple-A Columbus hitting .348/.347/.583 in 34 games. At the very least, Brown should be a valuable pinch hitter for a National League team and he even has a career batting average of .293 versus southpaw pitchers.

Brian Anderson was activated from the disabled list Tuesday afternoon and is expected to resume his role as the White Sox’ starting center fielder. The 27-year-old was pleased with his short rehab assignment at Triple-A Charlotte. “I got some good at-bats with those guys, and it was just fun to be back in the mix playing baseball,” said Anderson, who missed about three weeks with a strained right oblique.

Anderson left the MLB scene in late April with a relatively impressive stat line — a .268 batting average, .359 on-base percentage and two stolen bases in 56 at-bats. Those numbers won’t gain a player fantasy relevancy in most mixed leagues, but that he’s even making a small splash in AL-only leagues this season says something about his progress as a hitter. Anderson hit just .232 last season with a .272 OBP and was completely off the fantasy map. Now that he’s back in the lineup, let’s get better acquainted.

I don’t expect Brian to hit .350,” Ozzie Guillen told the Chicago Tribune at the beginning of the 2009 season. “A lot of people forget we gave Brian all year long [in 2006] and he never [kept the job]. Now he’s mature, he’s a better player and he knows what he’s doing. I don’t expect him to be comfortable with being a backup outfielder. He should be better than that.”

The Chicago coaching staff has noticed an improvement in Anderson’s approach at the plate.

”I felt good about Brian for a couple years now,” hitting coach Greg Walker told the Chicago Sun-Times in late April. ”We’ve seen pregame work now for two years that we think equates into game performance. We’ve challenged him a little bit where, ‘Hey, it’s time to step it up and start taking this pregame work into games.”

On to the links…

Mark Hinton of CrookedPitch.com outlines several “Fantasy Situations To Avoid.” At the top of his list? The Nationals’ bullpen.

Charlie Saponara of FantasyBaseball365.com asks a bold question: “Is Garrett Atkins done?”

If you haven’t already, check out this week’s “Fantasy Roundtable,” hosted by Razzball.com.

Mark St. Amant of Rotoworld is “crushing” on Adrian Gonzalez this week. “I’ve never managed a Major League game in my life,” St. Amant writes, “but I know how to win every game against the San Diego Padres — never, ever, ever. Ever. Ever pitch. Never. Pitch to Adrian Gonzalez.”

Find something of interest or have a question? Send me an e-mail anytime or hit me up on Twitter.

For the purposes of the “Closer Report” (which will be a weekly feature), we’ll place the relief aces in one of three categories: Death Grip (these guys have no chance of relinquishing the closer’s role; think Mo Rivera), In Control (a good chance of continuing to rack up the saves) and Watch Your Back (the set-up man is planning a coup d’etat as we speak).

Death Grip

Mariano Rivera, Yankees

That’s the Mo we know: since giving up 2 taters to the Rays on May 7th, Rivera has tossed 5 scoreless innings, with 5 K’s and one walk. His K/BB ratio is a sparkling 22/1 in 16.1 innings of work, and his Expected Fielding Independent ERA (XFIP, which roots out Rivera’s misfortune on flyballs so far-his HR/FB% is 28.6) comes in at 2.04 (which bests last season’s 2.13). In fact, his XFIP has gone down each season since 2006. You get the feeling that he could do this forever, no?

Jonathan Papelbon, Red Sox

Even with his control departing him at times (10 walks in 18 IP), Papelbon has managed to rack up 11 saves in 11 chances. He’s not garnering the same number of swings on pitches outside of the strike zone to this point (26.3 Outside Swing%, compared to a 30.7 career average), as hitters appear content to try and draw a walk rather than tussling with Papelbon’s mid 90’s heat, slider or splitter.

Kerry Wood, Indians

8.5 games back in a lackadaisical AL Central Division, the Indians continue to burn whatever leads they hold in the late innings. The ‘pen ranks 29th in team WPA and FIP. Wood, coming off a nice season in Wrigleyville (2.32 FIP, 4.67 K/BB ratio) has been the most egregious arsonist, with a -1.08 WPA. His BABIP (.391) and HR/FB rate (25%) are wacky-high, but he’s done himself no favors with 7 walks in 13 innings. The 31 year-old is fresh off his worst appearance of the season: a four-run, two-homer debacle against the Royals last night. Here’s Wood’s woeful evening, in graphical form:

Bobby Jenks, White Sox

Jenks got into just one game this week, surrendering 3 hits and 2 runs in an inning of work against the Blue Jays on the 17th. On the plus side, his pitches within the strike zone haven’t been easily hit: opponents have made contact with 81.6% of his offerings in the zone, compared to 93.1% last season. His overall contact rate is down nine percent from 2008.

Joe Nathan, Twins

After reeling off 7 scoreless innings to begin the month of May, Nathan was surprisingly torched by the Yankees as part of the walkoff week extravaganza in the Bronx (3 hits, 3 R, 2 BB in 0.2 IP). Nathan hasn’t quite been his stellar self thus far, with a 3.95 FIP and his lowest K/BB ratio (3.00) since his last year with San Francisco in 2003. His overall contact rate (76.8%) is the highest we have on record going back to 2002 (his average from ’02 to the present is 71.3%).

In Control

Brad Ziegler, Athletics

Watch out for: Andrew Bailey

Ziegler hasn’t had many save chances, what with the A’s being clobbered on a nightly basis in the month of May (Oakland’s run differential now sits at negative 27 for the year). Still, the submarine righty will want to pick up his sinking performance if he wants to hold off Bailey: Ziegler his let 6 runs score on his watch this month in 6 IP.

C.J. Wilson, Rangers (Frank Francisco on DL with biceps tendinitis)

Francisco will be back soon, but Wilson will take whatever save ops arise until baseball’s WPA leader comes off the DL. It’s just plain hard to trust C.J. in the later innings: his whiff rate has gone down each season since 2006 (from 8.73 that season down to 5.51 in 2009), and it isn’t as though he’s painting the corners: his walk rate is near five. Just 42.8% of Wilson’s pitches have been within the strike zone (48.9% MLB average).

Brian Fuentes, Angels

Fuentes’ ERA sits at a lukewarm 4.61, but that’s because hits have fallen in against him at an absurd clip (.417 BABIP). His FIP (3.12) and strikeout rate (12.51 per nine innings) tell more of the story here. Fuentes hasn’t surrendered a run since May 4th. Try to buy low if you still can.

Scott Downs, Blue Jays

B.J. Ryan might be back, but Downs doesn’t much care: he just continues to mow down batters. Downs racked up 2 saves and 3 scoreless innings this week, taking his K/BB ratio to an obscene 22/2 in 19.1 innings. Downs was never really known for possessing razor-sharp command (his career BB/9 is 3.42), and he’s still not really pounding the zone. Just 45.7% of his pitches have been within the zone, but hitters are going hog-wild chasing his sinker and sweeping curve out off the plate and in the dirt (35.5 Outside Swing%, 6th among all relievers).

Fernando Rodney, Tigers

Watch out for: Ryan Perry, Joel Zumaya

Rodney tossed three scoreless frames this week, though none came in a save situation. His K/BB sits at 11/4 in 16 innings. Zumaya, meanwhile, checks in at an uncharacteristic 7/0 in 11.1 innings. Zumaya has actually placed 57.8% of his offerings in the strike zone so far (51.9% career average). It’s Rodney’s job for now, but Detroit could be tempted to make a change if Rodney slips up.

Juan Cruz, Royals(Joakim Soria on the DL with shoulder soreness)

Cruz will get the save ops in Soria’s absence, but he hasn’t gotten to convert one since April 30th. The string-bean righty’s 1.45 ERA is rather misleading: he’s missed just 13 bats in 18.2 innings, while issuing 10 free passes. A .131 BABIP has greatly helped Cruz’s cause. His Outside Swing%, 30.1 in 2008, is down to 19.7% in 2009.

Watch Your Back

George Sherrill/Jim Johnson/Danys Baez(?), Orioles

Sherrill made just one appearance this week, converting a save chance against the Royals on the 16th. His control has been characteristically bumpy (7 BB in 15.2 IP), but he is at least garnering his highest Outside Swing% since 2005 (28.4% in ’09).

David Aardsma (Brandon Morrow is in time out for the moment)

Morrow sorrow: The former first-rounder out of Cal is banished to middle relief, though manager Don Wakamatsu says it’s just a temporary move. Still, the 24 year-old will want to pick it up: Morrow has 8 runs on his May ledger in just 3.2 innings, with 3 homers allowed.

Aardsma, meanwhile, will get the call for the time being. He’s not exactly a lock-down option, either: punching out over a batter per inning is great, but walking 5.79 per nine is a good way to give your manager an ulcer. Aardsma has eschewed his secondary pitches this season, throwing a fastball 89% of the time.

Troy Percival, Rays

Watch out for: J.P. Howell

Percival was torched for 4 runs and two dingers against the O’s on the 13th, and has since worked two quiet innings against the Indians (May 15th and the 17th). The 39 year-old is putting himself in the hole from the get-go: his 41.7 First Pitch Strike% ranks just ahead of Horacio Ramirez. That’s not the sort of company that a closer would like to keep.

For the purposes of the “Closer Report” (which will be a weekly feature), we’ll place the relief aces in one of three categories: Death Grip (these guys have no chance of relinquishing the closer’s role; think Mo Rivera), In Control (a good chance of continuing to rack up the saves) and Watch Your Back (the set-up man is planning a coup d’etat as we speak).

Death Grip

Francisco Rodriguez, Mets

New York’s new ninth-inning toy keeps rolling: Rodriguez has an eight-inning scoreless streak, having last been touched up on May 5th. K Rod has 11 saves, and his ERA has dipped under one. However, his overall performance is largely similar to his “disappointing” 2008 campaign: his FIP checks in at 3.20 (3.22 in ’08). The difference? A .220 BABIP, compared to .302 last year. Rodriguez’s K rate, while still by no means troublesome, is down again: 12.03 K/9 in 2007, 10.14 in ’08 and 9.15 this year.

Jonathan Broxton, Dodgers

Apparently Broxton is human: he surrendered two runs to the Phillies on May 14th, but has since reeled off two scoreless appearances on the 15th and the 18th. Broxton continues to keep the ball on the turf, with a 54.5 GB%. That, coupled with a stratospheric K rate (14.4 per nine), helps to explain why just 3 runners have crossed the plate on his watch (20 IP).

Heath Bell, Padres

Bell remains unblemished in 2009, with his scoreless innings streak up to sixteen. The former Met will probably surpass DL’d Frank Francisco for the WPA lead among relievers during his next appearance. With the Padres obviously headed for a bleak season and the club short on highly-touted youngsters, do they consider leveraging their 31 year-old relief ace at the deadline? As good as Bell has been, last-place outlets should not cling to 30-something relievers if they have a chance to cash in.

Chad Qualls, Diamondbacks

With 11.4 K/9, 1.20 BB/9 and a groundball rate near 70, Qualls has certainly done his part in a D-Backs ‘pen that ranks a mediocre 22nd in team WPA. His 73.3 First-Pitch Strike% ranks fifth among all relievers, and 56% of his offerings have crossed the plate (8th among ‘pen arms).

In Control

Matt Capps, Pirates

Capps continues to get bopped, with a 5-hit, 3 run train wreck against the Rockies on May 15th, a scoreless frame the following night and then a 1-run, 1-walk performance against the Nats on the 18th. Looking at his Pitch F/X data, Capps’ pitches have shown an interesting trend. His fastball has progressively shown less tailing movement in on right-handed hitters (5.8 inches in ’07, 5.1 in ’08 and 4.6 this year). Meanwhile, his slider has shown far more “sweeping” action away from righties (1.9 inches in ’07, 3.7 in ’08 and 4.9 this year).

Trevor Hoffman, Brewers

Hoffman is doing his best to match the man who replaced him in San Diego, as the 41 year-old changeup artist now has an 11-inning scoreless streak going to begin his Brewers career. His flyball-oriented ways have yet to surrender a homer, and his WPA checks in at 1.02.

Brad Lidge, Phillies

Watch out for: Ryan Madson

Lidge blew a save op and coughed up 2 runs against Washington on the 15th, but converted 2 save chances against those Nats the following two nights (including a 0.2 inning lay-up on the 17th). The .368 BABIP and 16.7 HR/FB rate won’t persist, but the lack of control (10 unintentional BB’s in 18.1 IP) is disconcerting. Lidge’s 47.8 First-Pitch Strike% checks in among the bottom 15 out of all relievers.

Francisco Cordero, Reds

Cordero was largely a spectator this week, getting into a game for the first time last night against the Phillies. He has yet to give up a homer in 16 frames despite a 34.1 GB%, so the 2.38 FIP is a bit misleading. Like K Rod, Cordero’s K rate is down for a third straight season: 12.22 in ’07, 9.98 in ’08 and 9.56 this season.

Brian Wilson, Giants

Wilson had a bumpy week, taking back-to-back losses against the Mets on the 14th and 15th, while giving up a combined 5 runs in 1.2 frames (he converted a save op against them on the 17th). Batters are making better contact with San Fran’s stopper in 2009: his Z-contact% (the percentage that hitters make contact with pitches inside the strike zone) has risen from 81.8% in 2008 to 91.7% this season (87.7% MLB average). With a couple of late-inning stinkers, Wilson’s WPA dips to -0.63.

LaTroy Hawkins, Astros (Jose Valverde on DL with calf injury)

Hawkins worked two innings this week, converting a save opportunity against the Rockies on the 14th but taking the loss on the 16th against the Cubs. Hawkins isn’t the ideal late-inning option, but he’s missing more bats than he has since 2004 (7.56 K/9).

Ryan Franklin, Cardinals

Franklin had an uneventful week, pitching 1.2 scoreless innings between two appearances (May 14th against the Pirates and the 18th against Milwaukee). Is this a good time to sell high on Franklin? He’s been pretty good (7.71 K/9, 1.65 BB/9), but his FIP (3.81) is much higher than his 1.10 ERA, and that .158 BABIP won’t continue unless he has a leprechaun hidden in that bushy goatee.

Huston Street, Rockies

Colorado’s ‘pen has been wretched in 2009 (28th in team WPA), so Street moves up a category through a combination of good pitching (6 IP, 7/1 K/BB, 0 R in May) and no other viable candidates to usurp him. Street’s peripherals are nifty so far (9.92 K/9, 1.65 BB/9), and with his BABIP and HR/FB rates stabilizing, his FIP is under four.

Watch Your Back

Matt Lindstrom, Marlins

Watch out for: Leo Nunez

Lindstrom gave up a run in a non-save situation against the Dodgers on the 15th, then converted a save op with a clean inning the following night. The hard-throwing 29 year-old has issued 10 walks in 15 frames this season, and his WPA sits at -0.31.

Julian Tavarez(?)/Kip Wells/Joe Beimel/Joel Hanrahan/Ron Villone(huh?), Nationals

“Here, you take it”: Does anyone want the Nats’ closing gig? Ron Villone, of all people, leads the ‘pen in WPA (0.31). Free agent import Beimel is (unfortunately) fitting right in thus far: the lefty journeyman has experienced pain along the Potomac. In 16 innings, his FIP sits near five, with a -1.35 WPA. Hanrahan, meanwhile, dished out 3 runs and two walks against the Bucs on the 18th. Could Villone take over by process of elimination?

Mike Gonzalez, Braves

Watch out for: Rafael Soriano

So far, Gonzalez has posted the highest K rate (12.74 per nine) and Outside Swing% (31.1) of his career. He served up a homer to the D-Backs on the 15th, and pitched a clean inning in an 8-1 blowout against the Rockies last night. The southpaw will need to continue the good work if he hopes to hold off Soriano, who boasts a 2.59 FIP (Gonzo’s is 3.03).

Kevin Gregg, Cubs

Watch out for: Carlos Marmol

Gregg’s Wrigley woes continue: after a six-appearance scoreless streak, Gregg imploded on the 16th against the Astros. Without retiring a single batter, the former Marlin gave up four runs, including two homers, while hitting a batter. His WPA is back in negative territory (-0.31), and just 43.2% of his pitches have caught the strike zone (51.2% career average, 48.9% MLB average).

Stock Up

Jorge de la Rosa, Rockies

de la Rosa sure has played roster hot-potato for a lefty cooking in the low-90’s, having been a part of four trades while seeing time in the Arizona, Boston, Milwaukee, Kansas City and Colorado systems. The 28 year-old, as covered in great detail by Eno Sarris, has kicked off the 2009 season with a 2.99 FIP, 9.49 K/9 and 3.38 BB/9 in 42.2 innings. de la Rosa has been fortunate in the home run department (0.42 HR/9, 4.9 HR/FB%), but his XFIP (based on K’s, BB’s and a normalized HR rate) still checks in at a tidy 3.70. If de la Rosa can keep the walks at a moderate rate, he could be an asset in most any league.

Joe Mauer, Twins

I know- Mauer has long been a fantasy darling, as a line-drive hitting backstop with excellent control of the zone. But the 26 year-old’s power outburst to begin the ’09 season bears mentioning: he’s already popped 6 out of the park in 73 plate appearances (this after hitting a combined 16 dingers in over 1,100 PA’s during the 2007 and 2008 seasons). Don’t expect him to suddenly go all Mike Piazza on the league, but Mauer would only add to his immense value if he could loft 20 big flys in addition to his high-contact, patient act at the dish.

Ubaldo Jimenez, Rockies

Ubaldo has done a better job of limiting the base on balls in recent starts, with 22 K’s, 6 walks and 6 runs allowed in 27 frames during the month of May. Like de la Rosa, Jimenez has had some good luck on flyballs (0.20 HR/9, 2.4 HR/FB%), but his XFIP is a decent 4.43 despite a disastrous April (16 runs, 19/17 K/BB in 19 IP). The combination of whiffs (8.02 K/9) and worm-burners (50 GB%) makes the 25 year-old Dominican Republic native an intriguing trade target.

Jayson Werth, Phillies

The whole “is player X overrated/underrated” debate is obviously subjective, but Werth has to place among the more underappreciated talents in the game. How many people realize just how valuable this rangy, 6-2, 225 pounder has been for the Phillies since 2007? A 3.4 Win player in partial playing time in ’07, Werth posted a 5.3 WAR season for the Phillies in 2008 (tied with Jimmy Rollins for 2nd in a star-studded lineup), and he’s produced 1.4 wins already in 2009. With a .415 wOBA (.294/.396/.540) and 8 steals in 9 attempts, Werth is producing in every facet of the game. He’s even making a little more contact (23.8 K%, 29.9 career average), while raking against righties (.849 OPS) in addition to his usual lefty lashing (1.142 OPS).

Rick Porcello, Tigers

Porcello has gone from Seton Hall Prep to viable major league starter in less than two seasons, as the 20 year-old sinkerballer has allowed 2 runs in 18 innings during the month of May. Porcello isn’t blowing batters away (5.67 K/9), but he’s stingy with the free passes (2.95 BB/9) and generates grounders (53.6 GB%) with the sinker, a mid-70’s curve and a low-80’s changeup. Porcello is doing a better job of throwing his three quality offerings (particularly his curveball) from the same arm-slot. Check out his release point chart against the Yankees, in a 3.2 inning, 6 run drubbing on April 29th…

…and his release point in a 6-inning, 1 run gem against the A’s on May 16th…

Stock Down

Alexei Ramirez, White Sox

There has been a general malaise over the South Side bats in 2009 (the Pale Hose rank 26th in wOBA), and Ramirez is one of the main culprits. Ramirez has been slightly more “patient” in ’09 ( we’re speaking in incredibly relative terms here: 5.6 BB%, 37.2 Outside Swing Percentage in 2009 compared to 3.6 BB% and a 42.7 O-Swing% in ’08), but the “Cuban Missile” has failed to launch, with a sickly .243 wOBA. His BABIP sits at a very low .238, so some positive regression should be expected. Still, his .051 ISO is downright Bloomquistian. This is what you sign up for if you gamble on a batting average-dependent player: when those hits don’t fall in, that player’s value craters.

Todd Wellemeyer, Cardinals

Just when it looked like Wellemeyer might establish himself as a competent mid-rotation cog (4.51 FIP in 2008), he has gone and reminded everyone why he’s a former Cub, Marlin and Royal. His K rate has dipped from 6.29 per nine in ’08 to 5.28 in ’09, with his BB/9 inflating from 2.91 to 4.11. Wellemeyer’s go-to secondary offering last year was a mid-80’s slider (thrown 23.6% of the time), but his slider usage is down this season (12.9%), as is its velocity (83.1 MPH). In place of the hard breaker, the 30 year-old has mixed in a few high-80’s cutters and some high-70’s curves. The kitchen sink approach does not appear to be working.

Josh Fields, White Sox

The former first-rounder out of Oklahoma State has been a wreck at the plate this season, whiffing 32.8 percent of the time while making Scott Podsednik look like a power hitter (.096 ISO). That’s quite the fall for a guy who authored a .236 ISO during the 2007 season. At 26 years old and coming off a mundane season spent at AAA Charlotte in 2008 (.347 wOBA, .772 OPS), Fields isn’t such a highly-regarded youngster than he can continue to post oh-fer’s and stay in the lineup. He’s not on the Drew Henson path of doom quite yet, but he might want to take a few snaps in between BP sessions.

Armando Galarraga, Tigers

As a free-talent pickup from Texas, Galarraga was a pleasant surprise for the Tigers in 2008 while many other Detroit hurlers crashed and burned. A good deal of regression should have been expected this season (Galarraga’s 3.73 ERA far surpassed his 4.88 FIP), but we weren’t quite anticipating this kind of spontaneous combustion. While Verlander, Jackson and Porcello deal, 2008’s nominal ace has a 5.62 FIP and a walk rate closing in on five batters per nine innings. His last outing on May 17th was a 0.2 inning, 5-run disaster against the light-hitting A’s.

Kevin Kouzmanoff, Padres

The Crushin’ Russian has not lived up to his nickname so far in 2009. Kouzmanoff’s Isolated Power figure comes in at just .101, continuing a three-year downward trend: his ISO was .182 in 2007 (his first full season in the big leagues) and .173 in 2008. The 28 year-old’s wOBA’s have dipped from .339 in ’07, .316 in ’08 and just .284 in 2009. The Padres are giving some thought to putting Chase Headley back at the hot corner, to make room for mammoth 6-6, 275 pound prospect Kyle Blanks in left field (it’s a stretch, but he’s more athletic than you might think). Kouzmanoff will need to show something in the coming weeks if he hopes to avoid being usurped.