2 Early Mocks Final ADP

Every year I run mock drafts at the end (or right before the end) of the regular season. The idea is to get some gut reactions of the industry on where players are likely to be taken in early drafts for the following year.

While I originally was going to not do them this year, I felt like the abbreviated 2020 season was likely to wreck havoc on drafts coming into 2021, which made this a more important exercise than previous years. I set up nine mock drafts with 15-team NFBC roster requirements last week and with the help of Smada who is a master with spreadsheets and the technical side of stuff, I present to you the final run of the 2 Early Mocks ADP. 

 

2 Early Mocks Final ADP
ADP Players Position High Low
1 2.2 Mookie Betts OF 1 7
2 2.6 Ronald Acuna Jr. OF 1 4
3 3.2 Fernando Tatis Jr. SS 1 5
4 4.6 Mike Trout OF 2 9
5 5.4 Juan Soto OF 3 8
6 6.7 Trea Turner SS 2 9
7 7.7 Jacob deGrom SP 1 12
8 7.8 Jose Ramirez 3B 2 12
9 9.2 Shane Bieber SP 7 11
10 9.6 Trevor Story SS 6 11
11 10.3 Gerrit Cole SP 4 15
12 10.9 Christian Yelich OF 7 13
13 13.8 Cody Bellinger 1B,OF 10 18
14 13.9 Freddie Freeman 1B 6 21
15 17.2 Francisco Lindor SS 15 24
16 18.3 Bryce Harper OF 14 21
17 18.4 Trevor Bauer SP 12 23
18 18.9 Manny Machado 3B,SS 14 29
19 19.9 Yu Darvish SP 14 27
20 22.7 Bo Bichette SS 18 35
21 24.1 Lucas Giolito SP 19 31
22 25.9 Nolan Arenado 3B 20 37
23 26.7 Max Scherzer SP 17 38
24 27.2 Aaron Nola SP 22 38
25 28.6 Luis Castillo SP 17 41
26 29.1 Walker Buehler SP 19 41
27 30.8 Ozzie Albies 2B 17 42
28 30.9 Xander Bogaerts SS 21 53
29 31.3 Clayton Kershaw SP 22 45
30 31.4 Anthony Rendon 3B 16 45
31 34.3 Alex Bregman 3B,SS 22 54
32 34.9 Luis Robert OF 16 45
33 35.2 Adalberto Mondesi SS 18 61
34 35.4 DJ LeMahieu 1B,2B,3B 14 55
35 37.3 Jose Abreu 1B 19 57
36 37.4 Marcell Ozuna OF 20 46
37 37.6 Jack Flaherty SP 27 58
38 37.7 Rafael Devers 3B 28 44
39 38.6 Kyle Tucker OF 25 51
40 42.6 Starling Marte OF 29 58
41 43.4 Whit Merrifield 2B,OF 31 51
42 43.7 Eloy Jimenez OF 31 56
43 44.1 Corey Seager SS 20 60
44 44.6 Brandon Woodruff SP 35 52
45 46.4 Luke Voit 1B 30 62
46 46.4 Tyler Glasnow SP 32 56
47 46.8 Lance Lynn SP 21 60
48 47.6 J.T. Realmuto C 32 60
49 48.7 Tim Anderson SS 36 66
50 48.9 Zac Gallen SP 33 64
51 49.2 Kenta Maeda SP 31 63
52 49.6 Blake Snell SP 39 58
53 52.4 Pete Alonso 1B 28 72
54 53.7 Dinelson Lamet SP 26 82
55 53.9 Max Fried SP 32 69
56 56.2 Sonny Gray SP 38 68
57 57.2 Aaron Judge OF 33 76
58 57.8 Trent Grisham OF 49 69
59 59.6 George Springer OF 46 76
60 59.8 Brandon Lowe 2B 48 73
61 61.6 Mike Clevinger SP 42 80
62 63.9 Gleyber Torres 2B,SS 34 79
63 64.1 Teoscar Hernandez OF 50 73
64 65.4 Nelson Cruz UT 52 78
65 65.7 Corbin Burnes RP 47 77
66 67.3 Cavan Biggio 2B 49 82
67 69.1 Austin Meadows OF 47 87
68 69.6 Vladimir Guerrero Jr. 3B 36 95
69 70 Keston Hiura 2B,OF 57 86
70 72.4 Michael Conforto OF 54 100
71 73.6 Hyun Jin Ryu NA 49 90
72 74.2 Matt Olson 1B 63 89
73 78.2 Ketel Marte 2B,OF 65 97
74 78.8 Eugenio Suarez 3B 54 102
75 79 Paul Goldschmidt 1B 62 92
76 79.9 Carlos Carrasco SP 55 108
77 80 Sixto Sanchez SP 62 101
78 80.3 Yoan Moncada 2B,3B 56 108
79 80.3 Zach Plesac SP 59 95
80 80.7 Kyle Hendricks SP 47 119
81 80.9 J.D. Martinez OF 64 92
82 81.1 Charlie Blackmon OF 64 94
83 81.2 Javier Baez 2B,SS 50 114
84 83 Stephen Strasburg SP 71 105
85 83.1 Zack Greinke SP 49 99
86 85.3 Nick Castellanos NA 75 98
87 87.2 Zack Wheeler SP 67 112
88 88.3 Yordan Alvarez UT 67 101
89 91.9 Josh Hader RP 71 109
90 94.1 Jesus Luzardo SP 75 121
91 94.3 Liam Hendriks RP 76 112
92 94.8 Lourdes Gurriel Jr. SS,OF 82 106
93 95.3 Jose Berrios SP 88 113
94 97.9 Dylan Bundy SP 79 115
95 97.9 Eddie Rosario OF 74 107
96 98.4 Matt Chapman 3B 66 130
97 101.6 Dominic Smith 1B,OF 77 151
98 101.7 Max Muncy 1B,2B,3B 81 119
99 101.8 Anthony Rizzo 1B 74 117
100 102 Chris Paddack SP 76 120
101 102.2 Tommy Pham OF 87 125
102 102.6 Giancarlo Stanton OF 83 130
103 102.7 Kyle Lewis OF 70 132
104 106.3 Dansby Swanson SS 77 123
105 109.1 Jeff McNeil 2B,OF 87 136
106 110.9 Will Smith LAD C 74 158
107 111.4 Sandy Alcantara SP 79 163
108 111.7 Wil Myers 3B,OF 98 129
109 113.1 Jose Altuve 2B 85 146
110 115.2 Mike Yastrzemski OF 66 164
111 116.8 Randy Arozarena OF 96 142
112 117.1 Framber Valdez RP 96 155
113 118 Patrick Corbin SP 83 150
114 118.7 Kris Bryant 3B,OF 93 157
115 120.3 Salvador Perez C 104 132
116 120.6 Edwin Diaz RP 100 143
117 121.9 Carlos Correa SS 96 149
118 122.8 Aroldis Chapman RP 109 145
119 123.4 Alec Bohm 3B 86 149
120 123.7 Frankie Montas SP 105 155
121 126.7 Jorge Soler OF 107 170
122 128.4 Byron Buxton OF 97 160
123 128.4 Marco Gonzales SP 85 153
124 128.6 Dustin May SP 106 149
125 130.7 Dylan Moore 3B,SS,OF 106 144
126 131 Joey Gallo OF 92 172
127 131.2 Pablo Lopez SP 106 156
128 131.3 Ian Anderson SP 105 176
129 131.6 Lance McCullers Jr. SP 80 185
130 131.9 Ramon Laureano OF 97 159
131 134.1 Alex Verdugo OF 117 158
132 134.7 Jonathan Villar 2B,SS 99 155
133 137.8 Marcus Semien SS 88 172
134 138.6 Yasmani Grandal C 106 160
135 139.1 Brad Hand RP 111 177
136 140 Willson Contreras C 126 154
137 140.6 Kevin Gausman SP 100 192
138 141.1 Jake Cronenworth 2B,SS 118 166
139 142 Mike Moustakas 2B,3B 108 158
140 143.2 Ian Happ OF 115 188
141 143.3 Julio Urias SP 98 202
142 145.2 Michael Brantley OF 128 162
143 148.2 Eric Hosmer 1B 111 170
144 148.4 Nick Anderson RP 102 185
145 148.9 Didi Gregorius SS 110 192
146 152.7 Travis d’Arnaud C,1B 142 171
147 153 Josh Bell 1B 95 203
148 153.6 Charlie Morton SP 110 204
149 153.8 David Price SP 129 188
150 155 Alex Colome RP 124 196
151 156.7 Ryan Mountcastle SS 109 190
152 157 Franmil Reyes OF 122 233
153 157.4 Josh Donaldson 3B 126 170
154 160 Kenley Jansen RP 130 210
155 162.8 Aaron Civale SP 115 207
156 163.4 German Marquez SP 141 191
157 163.4 Gio Urshela 3B 137 181
158 163.6 Victor Robles OF 123 237
159 165.3 Chris Bassitt SP 125 197
160 166.1 Brian Anderson 3B,OF 107 219
161 166.8 Max Kepler OF 131 203
162 167.4 Dylan Carlson OF 129 187
163 167.9 Shohei Ohtani SP 124 226
164 168.1 Rhys Hoskins 1B,OF 127 203
165 168.4 Devin Williams RP 100 219
166 169.1 Gary Sanchez C 138 203
167 170.2 Tony Gonsolin SP 129 197
168 173 Chris Sale SP 103 248
169 173.1 Raisel Iglesias RP 145 199
170 176 Miguel Sano 3B 115 224
171 176 Nick Markakis OF 176 176
172 176.5 Dallas Keuchel SP 96 230
173 176.6 Mike Soroka SP 139 203
174 177.8 Jarred Kelenic OF 124 279
175 178.4 Jesse Winker OF 107 225
176 179.7 Wander Franco TB SS 98 258
177 183.3 Tommy Edman 2B,3B,SS 165 205
178 184.3 Randal Grichuk OF 132 229
179 184.9 Anthony Santander OF 136 232
180 185.3 Tyler Mahle SP 142 250
181 186.9 Ryan Pressly RP 133 242
182 187.4 James Karinchak P 127 232
183 188 Cristian Javier SP 139 245
184 190.1 Clint Frazier OF 148 258
185 190.3 AJ Pollock NA 134 249
186 190.9 Andrew Heaney SP 154 243
187 191.8 Trevor Rosenthal RP 130 248
188 192.9 Kyle Schwarber OF 167 239
189 193.4 J.D. Davis 3B,OF 135 253
190 193.7 Justin Turner 3B 143 246
191 196.2 Christian Vazquez C 175 225
192 196.3 Gavin Lux SS 147 227
193 196.8 Nick Madrigal 2B,SS 123 270
194 198.3 Taylor Rogers RP 163 265
195 198.3 Zach Davies SP 160 238
196 200.4 Austin Nola C,1B,SS 165 227
197 200.9 Nick Solak 2B 165 233
198 201.2 Christian Walker 1B 166 219
199 201.6 Jo Adell OF 167 242
200 202.9 Joe Musgrove SP 161 220
201 203 Triston McKenzie SP 169 230
202 203.1 Renato Nunez 1B,3B 149 262
203 204.6 Sean Murphy C 189 228
204 207.4 Andrew McCutchen OF 183 221
205 209.4 Carlos Santana 1B 150 281
206 209.9 Brady Singer SP 177 280
207 210 Ke’Bryan Hayes 3B 156 294
208 213.4 Kole Calhoun OF 164 263
209 213.4 Kyle Seager 3B 151 285
210 215.8 Mark Melancon RP 153 252
211 216.1 Nate Pearson SP 191 246
212 216.2 John Means SP 168 274
213 218.2 Hunter Dozier 1B,3B,OF 160 262
214 219.1 James Paxton SP 184 261
215 220.6 Andrew Benintendi OF 104 300
216 221.1 Chris Taylor 2B,SS,OF 107 308
217 223 Isan Diaz 2B,SS 223 223
218 223 Jose Urquidy SP 173 289
219 223.7 Victor Reyes OF 171 256
220 227.2 Mark Canha OF 187 257
221 227.3 Zach Eflin SP 157 269
222 228 Adam Wainwright SP 228 228
223 229.9 Garrett Hampson 2B,SS,OF 133 267
224 230.7 Brandon Nimmo OF 158 296
225 231 Trey Mancini 1B,OF 184 284
226 232.9 Nick Senzel 3B,SS,OF 203 283
227 238 Jurickson Profar 2B,SS 169 322
228 238.7 Aaron Hicks OF 184 290
229 240.6 Jared Walsh 1B 197 296
230 241 Robinson Cano 2B 185 321
231 242.2 Austin Hays OF 186 310
232 242.2 Yasiel Puig OF 153 348
233 243.1 Manuel Margot OF 125 329
234 243.7 Jorge Polanco SS 193 339
235 244.1 MacKenzie Gore SP 144 314
236 244.3 David Fletcher 2B,3B,SS,OF 198 291
237 247 Daulton Varsho C 222 288
238 248 Raimel Tapia OF 132 362
239 248.9 Dane Dunning SP 211 330
240 248.9 James McCann C 210 320
241 249 Brandon Kintzler RP 190 413
242 249.8 Elieser Hernandez SP 179 317
243 250.1 Corey Kluber SP 145 349
244 252 Tommy La Stella 2B,3B 149 315
245 253.3 Seth Lugo RP 179 348
246 254.8 Drew Pomeranz SP 196 323
247 255 Kevin Kiermaier OF 255 255
248 255 Ryan McMahon 1B,2B 195 321
249 255.2 Mitch Garver C 230 298
250 255.3 Kwang Hyun Kim NA 186 334
251 259.3 Roberto Osuna RP 133 351
252 259.6 Jameson Taillon SP 173 381
253 264 Joey Bart C 215 316
254 265.4 Leody Taveras OF 180 324
255 265.9 Lorenzo Cain OF 201 346
256 266.1 Paul DeJong SS 199 320
257 267.1 Jeimer Candelario 3B 218 308
258 267.4 Willy Adames SS 198 380
259 269 Andrew Vaughn 1B 103 330
260 269 Ken Giles RP 269 269
261 269.1 Nathan Eovaldi SP 181 383
262 269.2 Noah Syndergaard SP 189 339
263 269.4 Eduardo Rodriguez SP 148 369
264 270.2 Jon Berti 2B,SS 175 320
265 270.2 Taijuan Walker SP 222 324
266 271.4 Adam Duvall OF 230 380
267 271.8 Michael Kopech SP 158 383
268 272 Willie Calhoun OF 238 349
269 273.9 Wilmer Flores 1B,2B 201 348
270 275.4 Rafael Montero RP 213 401
271 277.1 Luis Severino SP 229 334
272 277.6 Mitch Keller SP 191 396
273 278.1 Giovanny Gallegos RP 202 356
274 280.8 Justus Sheffield SP 216 352
275 282 Jordan Hicks RP 177 347
276 282.6 Deivi Garcia SP 211 329
277 283 Alex Dickerson OF 227 342
278 283.1 Andres Gimenez SS 200 346
279 283.1 Dylan Cease SP 214 391
280 283.3 Jean Segura SS 245 368
281 283.8 Dakota Hudson SP 156 400
282 284 Victor Gonzalez NA 284 284
283 284.2 Griffin Canning SP 243 357
284 284.7 Casey Mize SP 237 393
285 285.1 Tarik Skubal P 215 378
286 285.8 Jesus Aguilar 1B 231 360
287 287 Bryan Garcia NA 287 287
288 287.4 Bryan Reynolds OF 215 371
289 287.9 David Peralta OF 244 393
290 289.7 Eduardo Escobar 2B,3B 169 362
291 291.4 Spencer Howard SP 231 367
292 292.3 Adam Eaton OF 239 343
293 292.9 Max Stassi C 246 353
294 293.1 Austin Riley 3B,OF 251 386
295 294 Luis Torrens NA 294 294
296 294.3 Kirby Yates RP 182 418
297 295.5 Bobby Dalbec 3B 221 386
298 295.7 Michael Pineda SP 228 350
299 296.3 Pedro Severino C 246 335
300 296.4 Danny Jansen C 239 400
301 297.4 David Dahl OF 265 373
302 297.9 Jordan Romano NA 193 398
303 298.2 Joey Wendle 2B 260 381
304 299 Evan Longoria 3B 299 299
305 299 Rougned Odor 2B 175 394
306 299.2 Sean Manaea SP 233 348
307 299.3 Craig Kimbrel RP 200 398
308 299.5 Jordan Montgomery SP 198 354
309 300.1 Carson Kelly C 242 353
310 300.4 Mauricio Dubon SS 235 381
311 301 Anderson Tejeda SS 301 301
312 301.1 Brad Keller SP 216 403
313 301.8 Wilson Ramos C 219 408
314 302.2 Brandon Belt 1B 206 384
315 303 Danny Santana 1B,OF 303 303
316 304 Jose Leclerc RP 304 304
317 304.3 Masahiro Tanaka SP 263 337
318 304.9 Mike Mayers NA 220 370
319 306.1 Zack Britton RP 245 369
320 307.6 Matthew Boyd SP 232 374
321 308 Jeremy Jeffress RP 258 360
322 308.8 Richard Rodriguez RP 187 368
323 309.1 Garrett Cooper 1B,OF 255 377
324 310.6 Yuli Gurriel 1B,3B 205 395
325 310.8 Spencer Turnbull SP 255 363
326 311 Danny Duffy SP 311 311
327 311.6 Austin Slater OF 264 347
328 311.8 A.J. Puk SP 276 365
329 313.4 Rowdy Tellez 1B 194 368
330 313.6 Buster Posey C 270 374
331 314.4 Ty France 3B 228 367
332 315.1 Jorge Alfaro C 244 419
333 317 Amed Rosario SS 209 374
334 317.6 Drew Smyly SP 242 404
335 317.6 Kyle Wright SP 236 411
336 317.8 Evan White 1B 278 351
337 318 Jesse Hahn NA 316 320
338 318.9 Robbie Ray SP 254 398
339 319.3 Willi Castro SS 205 394
340 320 Caleb Smith SP 253 384
341 320 Tanner Rainey RP 225 415
342 320.2 Sam Huff C 259 360
343 321.5 Mike Brosseau 2B,3B 265 361
344 323 Domingo German SP 239 388
345 323 Johnny Cueto SP 323 323
346 324.7 Miguel Cabrera 1B 303 336
347 325 Chad Green RP 325 325
348 326 Robbie Grossman OF 270 412
349 326.3 Isiah Kiner-Falefa C,3B 226 408
350 326.4 Alejandro Kirk C 297 369
351 326.9 Yadier Molina C 265 413
352 327 Codi Heuer NA 318 336
353 327.3 Adbert Alzolay SP 261 393
354 327.4 Daniel Hudson RP 224 399
355 327.7 Rafael Dolis NA 283 364
356 328.3 Ryan Yarbrough SP 278 415
357 329.8 Greg Holland RP 297 372
358 329.9 David Peterson SP 212 397
359 330.2 Diego Castillo RP 272 398
360 330.6 Nate Lowe 1B 251 398
361 331.5 Andrew Stevenson NA 291 372
362 332.3 Kyle Freeland SP 265 399
363 332.3 Mitch Haniger OF 267 389
364 332.5 Garrett Crochet NA 299 366
365 333 Maikel Franco 3B 224 409
366 333.4 Aaron Bummer RP 235 406
367 333.4 Marcus Stroman SP 263 386
368 334 Chance Sisco C 251 417
369 334 Ryan Jeffers C 322 357
370 334 Trevor May RP 334 334
371 336.1 Alex Reyes SP 299 372
372 336.6 Kolten Wong 2B 298 375
373 336.6 Scott Kingery 3B,SS,OF 262 419
374 336.7 Jake Odorizzi SP 280 392
375 337.6 Joc Pederson 1B,OF 260 387
376 338 Francisco Mejia C 338 338
377 338.2 Jason Heyward OF 287 376
378 338.7 Tom Murphy C 319 369
379 339 Austin Barnes C 339 339
380 339 C.J. Cron 1B 272 402
381 339.7 Alec Mills RP 275 400
382 339.8 Alex Kirilloff OF 257 397
383 340 Austin Gomber RP 340 340
384 340 Corey Dickerson OF 241 391
385 340 Jose Iglesias SS 274 406
386 340 Mitch Moreland 1B 290 406
387 340.9 Kevin Pillar OF 240 412
388 341.4 Tyler Stephenson C 320 378
389 341.5 Anthony Bass RP 330 353
390 341.8 Yusei Kikuchi SP 271 379
391 342.1 Tyler O’Neill OF 259 383
392 342.3 Matt Barnes RP 230 415
393 342.4 Ha-seong Kim NA 246 407
394 343 Monte Harrison OF 343 343
395 343 Roberto Perez C 343 343
396 343.2 Asdrubal Cabrera 2B,3B 325 364
397 343.5 JT Brubaker NA 282 405
398 344 Niko Goodrum 1B,2B,SS,OF 250 403
399 344 Tyler Duffey RP 344 344
400 344.7 Adley Rutschman C 208 418
401 345 Josh Fleming NA 300 390
402 345 Kevin Newman 2B,SS 345 345
403 345.1 Edwin Rios 1B,3B 292 413
404 345.2 Jacob Stallings C 319 384
405 346 Andrew Knapp NA 346 346
406 346 Nico Hoerner SS 292 377
407 346.5 Donovan Solano 2B,SS 273 413
408 346.9 Cristian Pache OF 292 409
409 347 Roman Quinn OF 311 383
410 348 Cedric Mullins OF 285 400
411 348 Kyle Gibson SP 329 359
412 348 Luis Arraez 2B 286 400
413 348.2 Will Smith NA 201 412
414 348.6 Sam Hilliard OF 289 414
415 348.9 Martin Maldonado C 307 392
416 349 Adam Haseley OF 349 349
417 349.2 Oscar Mercado OF 279 418
418 350.5 Stephen Piscotty OF 286 415
419 351.3 Hanser Alberto 2B,3B,SS 239 393
420 351.4 Luis Patino SP 317 394
421 351.5 Jake Diekman RP 337 366
422 352 Brendan McKay 1B,UT,P 352 352
423 352.2 Carlos Martinez SP 228 394
424 352.2 Madison Bumgarner SP 257 398
425 352.8 Tejay Antone NA 266 385
426 353.1 Colin Moran 3B 234 407
427 353.4 Justin Upton OF 290 415
428 354.1 Carter Kieboom SS 186 414
429 355 Corbin Martin SP 355 355
430 355 Kike Hernandez 2B,OF 355 355
431 355.2 Josh Staumont RP 308 406
432 355.4 Shogo Akiyama NA 297 408
433 356 Keibert Ruiz C 356 356
434 356 Myles Straw SS,OF 356 356
435 356 Omar Narvaez C 314 419
436 356.3 Jackie Bradley Jr. OF 296 420
437 356.7 Adrian Houser SP 258 414
438 357 Harrison Bader OF 357 357
439 357 Lucas Sims SP 282 405
440 357 Yoenis Cespedes OF 357 357
441 357.8 Cal Quantrill SP 290 410
442 358.1 Luke Weaver SP 332 407
443 358.2 Randy Dobnak NA 330 408
444 358.5 Hector Neris RP 301 411
445 358.5 Mike Zunino C 345 372
446 358.9 Jonathan Schoop 2B 281 416
447 359 Daniel Vogelbach 1B 359 359
448 359 Forrest Whitley SP 304 414
449 359 Luis Campusano C 359 359
450 360 Marwin Gonzalez 3B,OF 360 360
451 360 Starlin Castro 2B,3B 341 379
452 360.3 Yandy Diaz 1B,3B 305 415
453 360.5 Archie Bradley RP 316 420
454 360.6 Stefan Crichton NA 307 399
455 361 Antonio Senzatela SP 361 361
456 361 Blake Treinen RP 361 361
457 362.5 Jonathan Hernandez RP 304 401
458 362.5 Matt Manning SP 334 389
459 363.8 Luis Garcia WSH NA 296 416
460 363.8 Michael Chavis 1B,2B,3B 333 402
461 364 Gregory Polanco OF 348 387
462 364 Kris Bubic SP 307 405
463 364 Seiya Suzuki NA 364 364
464 365 Andrew Miller RP 365 365
465 365.3 Nick Ahmed SS 293 407
466 365.7 Josh Lindblom NA 306 399
467 365.7 Pete Fairbanks NA 327 410
468 366 Spencer Torkelson 1B 333 412
469 366.3 Chad Kuhl SP 321 416
470 366.8 Freddy Peralta SP 292 397
471 367 Avisail Garcia OF 324 411
472 367 Jonathan Loaisiga SP 347 387
473 367.7 Edwin Encarnacion 1B 302 402
474 367.7 Merrill Kelly SP 317 416
475 367.7 Mike Minor SP 255 411
476 368 Jeter Downs SS 368 368
477 368.7 Yoshi Tsutsugo NA 309 413
478 370 Adrian Morejon SP 359 390
479 370.8 Rich Hill SP 262 407
480 371 Logan Gilbert SP 371 371
481 372.1 Luis Urias 2B 278 414
482 372.6 Miguel Rojas SS 250 410
483 373.8 Daniel Bard NA 341 399
484 374 Jose Quintana SP 374 374
485 375.2 Brusdar Graterol SP 346 396
486 375.3 Shin-Soo Choo NA 371 383
487 376 Daniel Norris SP 376 376
488 376 Khris Davis UT 349 403
489 377 Daniel Ponce de Leon RP 297 420
490 377.6 Cesar Hernandez 2B 327 419
491 377.6 Josh Naylor 1B,OF 348 396
492 378.7 Garrett Richards SP 316 420
493 379 Elvis Andrus SS 366 395
494 380.3 Edward Olivares OF 304 419
495 380.7 Brandon Workman RP 347 404
496 380.9 Ross Stripling SP 328 418
497 382.3 Vidal Brujan 2B 355 404
498 382.5 J.P. Crawford SS 353 413
499 382.8 Jazz Chisholm SS 357 412
500 383 Austin Romine C 383 383
501 385 Matt Foster NA 385 385
502 386 Emilio Pagan RP 386 386
503 386.5 Dean Kremer SP 365 408
504 387 A.J. Minter RP 387 387
505 387 Carlos Rodon SP 387 387
506 387 Trevor Rogers RP 362 412
507 387 Yan Gomes C 342 417
508 388 Kurt Suzuki C 388 388
509 389.5 Logan Webb SP 379 400
510 390.7 DJ Stewart OF 370 420
511 390.7 Victor Caratini C 351 419
512 391 Hunter Renfroe OF 391 391
513 391.5 Joey Votto 1B 362 419
514 392 Ty Buttrey RP 392 392
515 395 Emmanuel Clase RP 395 395
516 395.2 Clarke Schmidt SP 387 403
517 395.3 Justin Dunn SP 373 420
518 396 Keegan Akin SP 375 417
519 396 Mike Fiers SP 396 396
520 396 Reynaldo Lopez SP 396 396
521 396.5 Tanner Houck SP 342 415
522 397.5 Franchy Cordero OF 379 416
523 400 J.A. Happ SP 400 400
524 400 Lewin Diaz 1B 400 400
525 401 Brailyn Marquez SP 401 401
526 401 Trevor Williams SP 401 401
527 402 JaCoby Jones OF 402 402
528 403 Ryan Braun OF 403 403
529 403 Tyler Chatwood SP 403 403
530 404 Domingo Santana OF 404 404
531 405 Jose Cisnero NA 405 405
532 405 Thomas Hatch NA 405 405
533 405 Yimi Garcia NA 405 405
534 406.3 Julio Rodriguez OF 393 418
535 407.2 Nomar Mazara OF 380 418
536 409 Brandon Crawford SS 409 409
537 409 Brett Gardner OF 409 409
538 409 Gregory Soto SP 409 409
539 409 Hunter Harvey RP 401 417
540 410 Shed Long Jr. NA 410 410
541 411 David Bote 2B,3B 411 411
542 411 Yonny Chirinos SP 411 411
543 412 Howie Kendrick 1B,2B 412 412
544 413 Brendan Rodgers SS 413 413
545 415 Jose Marmolejos NA 415 415
546 415.5 Kyle Higashioka NA 411 420
547 416 Jose Garcia SS 416 416
548 417 Anthony DeSclafani SP 417 417
549 417 Brad Miller 1B 417 417
550 417 Delino DeShields OF 417 417
551 418 J.B. Wendelken RP 418 418
552 419 Yusniel Diaz OF 419 419
553 420 Tucker Barnhart C 420 420
All autodrafts have been removed from the ADP equation

You can see the full ADP at https://smadaplaysfantasy.com/2EarlyMocks/





Justin is the co-host on The Sleeper and The Bust Podcast and writes for Rotographs covering the Roto Riteup as well as random topics that float into his juvenile brain. In addition to his work at Rotographs, Justin is the lead fantasy writer/analyst and co-owner for FriendswithFantasyBenefits.com, owner of The Great Fantasy Baseball Invitational, and a fantasy football and baseball writer for Fantasy Alarm. He is also a certified addiction treatment counselor. Follow Justin on Twitter @JustinMasonFWFB.

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jgaryw
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jgaryw

Bauer at 17 based on an 11-game sample against incredibly weak competition, after a genuinely bad 2019 and before determining a landing spot is absolutely insane to me.

dodgerbleu
Member
Member
dodgerbleu

Agree but I would only definitively take Yu and Giolito before Bauer, once you get to Max/Castillo/Nola/Buehler it gets murkier for me. I’d probably take Bauer right in the middle of that group, after Castillo but before Max. Either way, seems like I’d have him in the late 20s or so.

carter
Member
Member
carter

To a lesser extent every single pitcher from the Central. Bieber, Darvish, Gio, Castillo, etc. Admittedly, they all have track records (Darvish was basically a continuation of what he was doing in the 2nd half) but none of them were ever this good.

It is early ADP, so a lot of things are off. Not to speak on politics, but lots can change. If they made the decision to have teams stick to their divisions this year (when caseload was significantly down versus where it is now in most of the country) who is to say that they won’t do it again? I mean, I doubt that happens. But there isn’t really any reason to believe things are going to be better before spring training, based on my understanding it should probably be worse.

Bauer is an interesting one to me. I can see both arguments. He clearly changed something for his spinrate (read using substances on the ball) because he thought if you can’t beat them, join them. He also has had good years prior, so this wasn’t completely out of the blue.

However there are a lot of situations and scenarios where I wouldn’t rate him this high. He started more doubleheaders than any pitcher in baseball this year (4 or 5) and had 3 of his 5 wins in doubleheaders. It doesn’t take a rocket scientist to see that if you have the win when Bauer is taken out in a 7 inning game (after 6 ip usually) that it would be less likely the bullpen loses the game than in a 9ip game. Who knows if there are other factors for him pitching better in doubleheaders as well. For example, he runs high pitch counts on a per ip basis. It would stand to reason that he tries to make more perfect pitches in a 7 inning game than a traditional one, due to W possibility, as well as having a better chance of completing the game/going deep. He did make more pitches on a per ip basis in 7 inning games this year, which obviously could just be variance, but still. I have heard however that he is basing where he signs entirely on the team allowing him to pitch every 4 games. If that is the scenario then he is far too low. If you take what his mean projection is for next year (haven’t seen many sources, but it isn’t hard to approximate) and prorate it to 40 starts he instantly becomes the most valuable player in the entire fantasy game. 40 games of Bauer is better than 32 games of deGrom simply from the extra wins/Ks even if it is worse on a per inning basis. The extra ip will get 70 more Ks probably, more wins, and ratio help. Would I take him 1 overall? No, probably not. But I could see scenarios where I would. Resigning with same team under pretense that they can guarantee him that he can throw every 4 games and reduced travel schedule again…well, then I probably would. I’d figure you would probably need to as well, because his ADP would certainly be in the top 10 in that scenario. Could it backfire massively? Obviously, but so could every single other pick.