162-Game Pace Stars to Draft: Jeremy Peña

The so-called “back of the baseball card” numbers still matter to us. No matter how many new-fangled metrics are concocted, we can’t keep our eye from straying towards the .300 AVG/30 HR/100 RBI hitter. That’s the ideal. It’s how we were trained to think about players.

In this article series, I’ll point out two two starting pitchers and two hitters who I think could fall victim to a bias away from low volume players, depressing their draft day costs for 2027. 

While it’s still too early to tell what their cost will be, I’d argue that given their numbers, paced out to 162 games, make them some of the best players in fantasy, and they’re unlikely to cost what they’re worth. 

Last week, I covered Logan Henderson, who was the second-ranked pitcher on a per-162 basis via the Fangraphs Player Rater this season, slotting in right behind Jacob Misiorowski.

This week, I’ll cover Jeremy Peña. The franchise shortstop for the Houston Astros is still just 28 years old and I think he’s quietly been starting to make good on the first impression he made during the 2022 playoffs.

Jeremy Peña, 461 PA – $10.42; 162 Game Average – $15.78

Peña hit .345 with 4 homers during those 2022 playoffs as a true rookie, winning the ALCS and World Series MVP, besting both Aaron Judge and Bryce Harper in the same postseason. 

But in the subsequent seasons, instead of further breaking out, Peña stagnated. He maintained his value as an everyday shortstop, a solid Dansby-level defender. But in his second and third seasons, despite ever-growing biceps, his power never caught up to the 22 homers he hit as a rookie. 

Over the last two seasons, things have changed. 

Last season, Peña had a career year. In 125 games, he hit 17 homers, stole 20 bases, and for the first time in his big league career, he hit over .300. This season, he’s maintained those gains in many respects, with 20 homers, 11 steals, and a .275 AVG in 108 games, reaching 20 homers for the first time since his rookie season. 

Clearly, however, Peña has failed to provide a full-season of playing time in those years. This season, lower body injuries hampered his base stealing intent, despite possessing better than 90th percentile sprint speed.  

Even still, Peña has reached double digit home runs and steals in all five of his seasons in the majors. He’s hit over .250 in all five seasons. And he consistently scores runs, hitting at or near the top of the Houston order. 

But over the last two years, he’s made and maintained changes that give him even more upside. He just hasn’t made it obvious by doing it over a full healthy season yet.

Even with his limited counting stats, Peña is the eleventh-ranked shortstop by the Fangraphs Player Rater this season. Give him a full season at his current pace, and he’d move up to seventh, settling in right after Kevin McGonigle and ahead of Trea Turner. 

I think the stats that underlie his increased output have been muted by a lack of playing time, but are signs of a true breakout. 

For one, he’s been pulling the ball in the air a lot more. As a rookie, Peña had a 19.1% pull air rate. After falling back into the low teens over the following two seasons, Peña had a 21.1% pull air rate in 2025 and has a 20.5% pull air rate this season. 

He’s also hitting the ball harder, helping him put up the best expected stats of his career over the last two seasons, with the most barrels since his rookie season. 

To complete the trifecta, Peña has also been squaring up his line drives and fly balls more often.

His process metrics have followed suit, improving dramatically over the last two seasons. Peña hit fastballs exceptionally well as a rookie, before falling off in the following two years, posting negative run values against fastballs in 2023 and 2024. In 2025 and 2026, he’s been neutral or better against four-seamers, sinkers, and cutters, with a particular knack for knocking around sinkers and four-seamers. 

He’s always been contact oriented, though he has struck out a bit more this season, getting up around 24% after hovering around 17% for most of his career. But the improvement he made last year that he’s kept this year has been improved results on pitches in the shadow of the zone. 

Peña has started doing damage again on pitches in the heart of the zone while also making better swing decisions on pitches in the shadow of the zone. He’s always been above average on pitches further outside the zone. But now, he’s starting to improve against the best offerings, the best opportunities to do serious damage. 

And the best opportunities come more often for Peña than they do for most hitters. Because Peña regularly hits leadoff, helping him reach 90-100 plate appearances in months where he’s healthy. 

He also has better opportunities thanks to his home park.

Remember when I mentioned his increased pull air rate? That’s coincided with a noticeable improvement in his performance at home. He’s clearly taking advantage of his surroundings over the last two seasons. This year, he’s hitting .303 with a .556 SLG at home, knocking 12 of his 20 homers hit at home. In those games, his FB% is higher than it is in road games. 

For fantasy baseball, Peña is a clear standout. In deep leagues, he’s an accumulator when he plays, racking up counting stats at the top of the order for a strong offense in a great home park for his new profile. And in shallower leagues, that tailored approach in his home park allows for the potential for massive weeks. He’s had six weeks this season worth $20 or more. 

Coming out of the All Star break, Peña and the Astros had a particularly favorable schedule, and he took advantage. With 11 games at home and a road trip to hitter-friendly havens in Anaheim and on the Southside of Chicago, Peña slashed .375/.430/.736 with 7 home runs and 19 runs scored in 17 games. He had a 15-game hitting streak that included eight multi-hit games. He can win you a week, or two, or even three in a row when he’s at his best.

Peña is on the right side of 30, playing solid defense at a premium position, with a premium lineup spot, with back-to-back seasons with improved approach metrics and results to go along with impressive sprint speed and strength. 

With the age-related decline of Willy Adames and Turner, the emergence of McGonigle, and the early round price tag of Elly de la Cruz and Bobby Witt Jr., drafting shortstops next season will be a tougher task than it has been in recent years.

There will be a gap between the haves and have nots. In Peña’s price range, you may find yourself choosing between a rapidly diminishing pool of shortstops, where Peña presents perhaps the only option left with top-5, or even top-3 upside at the position, with a floor that isn’t nearly a lost season, like veterans Corey Seager and Mookie Betts are starting to flash. 

Peña could represent both the most cost effective safe option and a discount upside option at shortstop for 2027.