Year in Review: LIMA Pitching
Last week, fellow RotoGraphist Mike Podhorzer reviewed a $9 fictional pitching staff he created earlier in the year. I did something similar in my home league and the industry league Blog Wars. The success of the strategy was mixed, so let’s delve into the details.
Mike’s fictional approach differed from my real draft strategy in that I didn’t focus on selecting nine $1 players. Both were auction leagues, but I ponied up more than $1 on about half my starters. I’ve also included the cost of my relievers to show the somewhat unconventional approach I took by focusing on relief.
| Player | Cost |
|---|---|
| Craig Kimbrel | $25 |
| Greg Holland | $11 |
| Sonny Gray | $8 |
| Yordano Ventura | $3 |
| Marco Estrada | $2 |
| Noah Syndergaard | $2 |
| Martín Pérez | $1 |
| Ervin Santana | $1 |
Welcome to my home league. It’s a 12 team, 29 player draft with a $350 budget. The $8 Gray was a keeper, one I would not have picked had I been bidding in the draft (presumably, he would have cost more). I entered the season with a devastating quantity of offense. I planned to reinforce my advantages on that side of the fence with my draft budget. I targeted a perfect 60 score in the offensive categories and came pretty close with a 54.
I picked inexpensive starting pitchers for a couple reasons. First, as I already intimated, I believed I could sweep offense with a little additional investment. If I also managed the saves column to a score of 10 or better, I would be hard to beat. I’ve also had a lot of success streaming in this particular league. I saw no reason why I couldn’t improve my rotation later in the season. Typically, there is an opportunity to trade a decent but non-elite keeper for a Felix Hernandez type down the stretch.
My pauper’s rotation actually performed excellently through mid-May. There was about a month long period where I was within one big day of a perfect 120 point score. Then, regression hit my starters like a bus, and I wasn’t able to scramble fast enough to save the season. My pitching staff finished with 42 points, giving me a 96 point total. Most years, I would have had a shot to win. Unfortunately, three owners failed to eclipse 40 points, which meant that two owners crossed the 100 point threshold. I finished a disappointing third despite my success.
Blog Wars is a much more difficult league with 13 owners, deep rosters, and a standard $260 budget. Below are my pitchers.
| Player | Cost |
|---|---|
| Trevor Rosenthal | $17 |
| Jason Grilli | $9 |
| R.A. Dickey | $4 |
| Marco Estrada | $2 |
| Corey Kluber | $2 |
| Joaquín Benoit | $2 |
| Drew Hutchison | $1 |
| Sergio Santos | $1 |
| Mark Melancon | $1 |
| Will Smith | $1 |
| Iván Nova | $1 |
Here, my attempt to avoid starters in favor of offense backfired terribly. I ended up punting steals when guys like Jayson Werth and Shin-Soo Choo failed to contribute to my totals. A down season from Miguel Cabrera did not help my overall offense (or budget). The result was a total of 33 offensive points.
Hubris may have bested me in this league. Like my home league, I planned to stream all the pitching I needed. Of course, I underestimated the waiver hungry nature of the league. Trapped into a strategy of Kluber and nothing, I floundered for much of the year. My 31 pitching points was almost a mirror image of my offensive mediocrity.
Overall, I drew a few lessons from the experience. While the strategy itself is fine, it relies on seriously outperforming the competition on offense. As such, you better not come up short. Last season was also my first on the west coast and as a full time baseball writer. Between work and a later start to the day, I was always left picking the scraps off the waiver wire. I’m back on the east coast now, so that problem should be resolved. I’ll also be sure to take industry types more seriously, especially when it comes to streaming. While I performed well in other industry leagues, Blog Wars was the deepest and most diverse.
I’m likely to eschew spending on pitching in 2015, but I do plan to budget more than the $17 and $10 I spent on starters in these two leagues.
You can follow me on twitter @BaseballATeam
No Jose Lima reference??
I was desperately hoping this was a pitcher valuation system based on LIMA TIME.
A lot of it really is just about luck. I went with the same basic strategy in my 12 team mixed cash league and got lucky that my offense really clicked. I ended up sweeping all 5 offensive categories pretty handily thanks to Altuve, Frazier, and relative health from my studs like Miggy, Bautista, Puig, Freeman, Ortiz and Posey. Had Tulo as well and he was a monster in his half season, and I was lucky to get Danny Santana to replace him when he went down for the year. This is all despite dropping Corey Dickerson in early April after taking a $1 flier on him in the auction.
I got almost zero production out of any starting pitcher that I spent more than $2 on. Iwakuma was the lone guy that brought any return, and I got him for $7. Latos ($12), Salazar ($9) and Sabathia ($8) were all busts and that pretty much summed up my SP budget. I got a lot of mileage out of cheap buys like Kazmir, Jesse Chavez, Odorizzi, Stroman, Colon, McHugh, and McCarthy. There truly are a lot of good, cheap pitchers available if you’re quick on the trigger to pick up the hot hands (although the downside is you may end up dropping a guy like Dickerson…)
For saves I got lucky that Robertson was a horse all year, and got a little bonus help from Benoit and McGee. In hindsight I really should have funneled about $10 of my SP budget towards another closer as it was painful going most of the year with only Robertson as a sure thing.
Overall, I was really happy with my results after spending a huge portion of my budget on offense. Sure, hitting the jackpot with a guy like Altuve helps, but even with a replacement level player in his stead, I would have easily won the league. I’m planning on another year of over-spending on offense.
Is this our league?
If so, you played hardball on trades with me, so I leveraged that against you by dealing with your competition 🙂
You mean I didn’t agree to trades that didn’t help my team?
I read plenty of Jeff Gross posts on THT over the years, and he definitely strikes me as that guy who sends a full paragraph with each trade telling you how to manage your team and why you should accept his offer.
with that said, I still liked your articles, Jeff.
Our budget is $310, no? And as much as I don’t want to spend on SP as a general rule, I’m guessing most (based on 2014 behavior) will swing the pendulum too far on SP.
in a standard redraft auction with 260 bucks, generally I find about 80-120 for all my pitchers about right. I never get an ace or a top tier closer, but 2-3 solid closers and 4-5 top 40 starters, and i am in the 80 range (and a few gambles on $1-2 stuff.)
What is LIMA?
Low
Investment
Mound
Aces
The LIMA Plan is a strategy for Rotisserie and fantasy leagues that allows you to target high skills pitchers at very low cost, thereby freeing up dollars for offense. LIMA is an acronym for Low Investment Mound Aces, and also pays tribute to Jose Lima, a $1 pitcher in 1998 who exemplifies the power of the strategy.
The strategy comes from Ron Shandler’s Baseball Forecaster publications.
LIMA plan, as described above, includes going after lower cost pitchers with:
K/BB ratio of 2.0 or better
K/9 ratio of 6.0 or better
HR/9 of 1.0 or less
This was prior to my knowledge of SIERA, FIP, or other advance pitching metrics that most look at these days but it was a way to identify cheaper guys whose peripheral stats indicated they are more likely to outperform their costs. Of course now that less people look at ERA and WHIP and more actually look at peripheral stats it’s a lot hard to effectively use the LIMA plan. Guys like Kluber end up being more expensive these days because most managers and fantasy experts pick these guys as sleepers or players to target.