Yangervis Solarte or Javier Baez?
Okay, in any sort of keeper or dynasty situation, the titular question is ridiculous of course. The recently promoted Javier Baez has all the pedigree, power and speed, and Yangervis Solarte is a 27-year-old non-prospect with few tools and a total lack of position. Game over.
But in redraft leagues, we’re only interested in what Solarte and Baez will do the rest of the way. And in Yahoo, they’re both shortstops that are available in more than three-quarters of the leagues out there. So… is it still obvious?
Let’s pro-rate their rest-of-season projections on this site to full-season work. Two months, more or less, so let’s give them 180 plate appearances. What would they do with those plate appearances if we just use the numbers?
| Player | BA | OBP | HR | SB | R | RBI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Javier Baez | 0.237 | 0.284 | 6 | 6 | 18 | 24 |
| Yangervis Solarte | 0.255 | 0.310 | 4 | 0 | 17 | 17 |
Given the weights that Jeff Zimmerman found in his SGP method fantasy prep session this past off-season, Baez’s production has more value… barely. A homer is worth about the same as a stolen base, and all things being equal, either a homer or a steal is worth three points of batting average. Baez wins by RBI and a little more than a homer. But if Solarte can beat his rest-of-season projected .275 batting average on balls in play, he’ll tighten it up.
But of course there’s a higher bust rate associated with Baez. Solarte is doing what he’s doing now, and Baez is not.
Chris St. John added isolated slugging percentage to his bust rate work and re-named it JAVIER because of Baez, so let’s look at what JAVIER has to say about this. St. John’s system spit out a 11.8% productive percentage, a 23.5% average percentage, and a 64.7% bust percentage. That’s a super-high bust rate for a prospect with his pedigree, and it includes many years of chances. If we were to talk about the chance that Baez would hit well in these final two months, we’d probably have to push that number higher, perhaps bast 75%.
So now that slim lead that Baez had over the surer thing in Solarte has evaporated, at least for players that need more of a sure thing. If your team is doing okay and you need a stop-gap, the ‘obvious’ answer is already shifted over to Solarte.
Bradley Woodrum did a broad-scope look at translating PCL stats to major league ones today:
So, looking at the #PCL to #MLB transition, we see an average drop of 16 wRC+ points, with a little volatility. pic.twitter.com/EDFhhOfYrn
— Bradley Woodrum (@BradleyWoodrum) August 4, 2014
Of course, this stuff is hard to do and rife with problems, but the line does suggest that Baez will see a wRC+ under 90 this year in the bigs. Here are some guys under 90 wRC+ that fit the general bill:
| Name | HR | R | RBI | SB | BB% | K% | ISO | BABIP | AVG | OBP | SLG | wRC+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Davis | 17 | 42 | 51 | 2 | 12.3% | 33.0% | 0.188 | 0.249 | 0.194 | 0.304 | 0.382 | 88 |
| Dayan Viciedo | 13 | 51 | 40 | 5.9% | 21.8% | 0.159 | 0.273 | 0.234 | 0.282 | 0.393 | 82 | |
| Jay Bruce | 10 | 50 | 43 | 10 | 10.6% | 27.6% | 0.157 | 0.279 | 0.216 | 0.302 | 0.373 | 85 |
| Ryan Howard | 16 | 48 | 63 | 9.9% | 28.2% | 0.151 | 0.271 | 0.215 | 0.297 | 0.366 | 84 |
It’s not a terrible group, but if you’re looking for sexy, it’s not a sexy table either.
I hate to play the role of Debbie Downer too often, but it really looks like Yangervis Solarte is more likely to help your redraft fantasy team over the rest of the year, especially considering he can play all over the diamond for you. Javier Baez is either going to power your team to victory from the shortstop position, or end up back on your wire in two weeks as you keep searching for the solution.
With a phone full of pictures of pitchers' fingers, strange beers, and his two toddler sons, Eno Sarris can be found at the ballpark or a brewery most days. Read him here, writing about the A's or Giants at The Athletic, or about beer at October. Follow him on Twitter @enosarris if you can handle the sandwiches and inanity.
I’d take Baez in any format hoping to catching lighting in a bottle. If he struggles you drop him for a Solarte-ish replacement.
I think the flaw in the argument here is that you’re assuming these guys will be used as the primary shortstop. If you need a new primary shortstop, then sure, it’s close for RoS. If you’ve got a bench spot to spare, then you’re definitely going to be rolling the dice here. Two of the four players in the list at the bottom have hit 50+ HR in a season. That’s an incredible upside comp that a bucket of Solarte’s couldn’t provide. In Petco, nonetheless.
I say Baez hands down will outperform Solarte. More homers and steals for sure with at worst close to the same average. Baez will get 2b classification as well.
Two additional considerations:
* Baez will soon add 2B eligibility in some formats.
* Baez opens his career in Denver. If he happens to launch just one 450-foot megablast, owners could package him up and sell the sizzle before the trade deadline.
Have you re-run JAVIER since that link went out? I see in the table only 264 PA for him, but that leaves out the tear he has been on in the last 170 or so PA. I would suspect that would lower his bust rate a bit and bump up the projection a tad. I agree that his chances are still precarious due to his strike zone judgment.
Similar thoughts on Bryant? Not for this year obviously since Epstein has said no chance he is called up, but in general?
I wouldn’t be surprised to see Baez struggle a little out of the gate, a la George Springer, given their sky-high K rates, but I still think he is the pickup. If he struggles, chances are Solarte will still be available, but if you wait, there would be little chance of grabbing him if he gets off to any kind of decent start.
It should probably also be noted that the PCL really performs like 2 separate leagues with the Pacific Conference being considerably more hitter friendly than the American Conference (where the Iowa Cubs play). The leagues play each other about as frequently as AL and NL teams do. I know wRC+ is league adjusted for the minors, but I assume it’s just for the overall PCL and not by conference within the PCL. If that’s the case, Baez’s wRC+ might be a little low since he is in the weaker hitting half of the PCL and we might be able to expect a little better performance in the majors. If that’s not the case, just ignore me, I’m clearly an idiot.
Can we maybe get an article with a sexy table? Something like the Banknotes Harper Portable Conference Table, for Pounding – perhaps the Banknotes Harper Portable Sexy Table, also for Pounding?
Relatedly, though this should go w/o saying at this point: #KeepNotGraphs.
Solarte has been unexpectedly decent in a Friars uni, but that is not sustainable in Petco, and he is certainly not helped by hitting in the middle of that no-hitter friendly lineup. Dare I say a regression? I do.
Baez plays in a hitters park, will be eligible at both 2B and SS in Yahoo after this week, and has a great-room-high ceiling, whereas Solarte’s ceiling is barely above his cap. Baez is a greater risk, for certain, but he is also a potentially fantastic reward. We’re talkin’ a fleet-feet, light-tower-power, ubersuperstar, people. The fact that he debuts in a series in Colorado doesn’t hurt, either.
I’ll take the high-risk/high-reward Manny-tutored toolsy kid over the Yangervises of the world any day of the week.
Point taken but it comes down to the size of the league. Solarte has no shot at fantasy usefulness in 12/14 team league and Baez has a chance at great fantasy usefulness. I’ll take the 63% bust rate over the 100% bust rate there.
I’m not sure I agree with that, a 12 team league with MI will roster about 40-45 MI. There’s a pretty good chance that Solarte is a top 45 guy RoS simply because he’ll get 10-20% more PA than most of the similar guys in the pool (generally 8-9 hitters). His flex also makes him more useful as a rosteree.
Obviously it’s situational, but I’m on board with Eno’s conclusion. I’d definitely take Solarte’s certain, if tepid production over Baez’ high but unlikely upside if I was trying to cling to a lead. If I need to hit the jackpot in order to compete, then I have to enter the jackpot drawing (i.e. take Baez).
Baez, Solarte, Boegarts or Danny Santana the RoS? Santana has been pretty much great since getting a regular job, but he seems to be purely driven by a sky high BABiP. Baez or Bogaerts are the high upside guys, but the former could take awhile to adjust and the latter hasnt been the same since being booted off SS for Stephen Drew. I’m doing really well in my league, but SS has been a constant problem for me.
This article is stupid and wrong.
According to the very article you link on your very own website, 1 HR is worth 3 points of batting average OVER AN ENTIRE SEASON. So when you prorate stuff to a 1/3rd of a season, 1 HR (or SB) is worth 9 points of BA.
Opps.
also you can’t just dismiss 7 RBIs worth of production.
Sure over 180 Abs anyone could outperform anybody, but jesus this is just terrible advice.
Not even a cubs fan.
on the other hand, this is a great click bait title.
While I was working on this I did wish that BA was expressed in hits so that I could better pro-rate it, but since it wasn’t, I wasn’t going to do what you did there. I don’t think that makes sense.
It’s true that the short sample devalues Solarte’s lead in BA on some level, but I don’t think it’s linear in that way.
And yes, I did mention the difference in RBI but wasn’t going to make a big deal of it. Projecting players is difficult enough, projecting RBIs is not a science, and it’s a team level thing. Even saying the Cubs will score more runs than the Padres is hard to do, the Padres have done ok by some metrics over the last month http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=nl&qual=0&type=8&season=2014&month=3&season1=2014&ind=0&team=0,ts&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0
I apologize for being a dick in the posts above.
A fantasy BA weight can’t be expressed in terms of hits because many players have vastly different ABs over the course of the year (based on walk rates and lineup spot). What you are looking for is essentially “Hits above average fantasy hits given an amount of ABs”. That will scale linearly with ABs, and why I had so many problems with this article.
Also, the small sample size will affect all fantasy predictions, not just BA (although it is volatile, it is just as likely that Solarte will outperform his BA prediction by chance that he will underperform). If you are going to use weights with a small sample size for all categories, it would be nice to know replacement values. Or the total value comparison between an elite player and a good one for a comparison. I think you will find Baez projects to be a TON more valuable than trout.
*solarte not trout. ugh.
I know about the hits thing, but it’s a problem with using BA points = other things analysis. An Ichiro is worth more than a Choo because of walks and all that, I know you know that from what you’ve said. But it’s possible that Baez’ bad batting average will hurt him more because he won’t walk. And that Solarte’s hits will be worth less because he’ll walk a lot.
Anyway, I don’t love SGP stuff because of the lack of baseline like you said. SGP itself is based on the outcomes of a few leagues.
Instead, I wanted to combine the fact that his bust rate is so high with the fact that his upside is so high. I still stand by the conclusion. If you need a guy to play SS for you and you’re in a good spot, I think Solarte is the better way to go. If you need a home run, swing for the fences with Baez.
Me? Not going to have any shares of Baez, don’t think he’s a top-12 SS with a BA like that. I can think of one redraft league where he’ll be available and I’m thinking of punting BA where I might go get him.
Did you say bust? YEAH, HE JUST BUSTED ONE OVER THE OUTFIELD WALL!!! upside? Booyeah!
3 HRS and 3 Strikeouts in 3 games. Baez is going to out perform your expectations (his ceiling is HIGH) while Solarte will under perform, as he is way to Pecota.
Is this even a real article? Baez LOLS at this.
Yangervis or Alcides?