Would Ian Kennedy Benefit from a Pitcher’s Park?
He did once. Can he again?
Ian Kennedy has been one of the least valuable starting pitchers of 2015, a fact probably unsurprising to San Diego residents and his fantasy owners. Of all pitchers who have thrown at least 60 innings and generated negative wins above replacement (WAR), his ratio of strikeouts to walks (3.18 K/BB) and xFIP (3.83) rise to the top of an admittedly short list.
Still, his rate of strikeouts per nine innings (8.31 K/9) ranks 36th among all starters, and his walks-per-nine (2.62 BB/9) is nothing to sneeze at, either. It’s easy to see why fantasy owners hold out hope: his adequacy in preventing baserunners points to reasons why his 4.58 ERA is, perhaps, too high.
Unfortunately, Kennedy is a fly ball machine who has (almost) never enjoyed the friendly confines of a pitcher’s park. Per ESPN’s Park Factors, Kennedy’s home parks have mostly benefited hitters:
| Year | Home Park | HR Factor (Rank) | GB% | HR/FB | K/9 | BB/9 | FIP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2010 | ARI | 1.063 (12th) | 37.1% | 10.8% | 7.79 | 3.25 | 4.33 |
| 2011 | ARI | 1.095 (10th) | 38.6% | 7.7% | 8.03 | 2.23 | 3.22 |
| 2012 | ARI | 1.192 (6th) | 47.3% | 10.8% | 8.08 | 2.38 | 4.04 |
| 2013 | ARI/SD | .949 (16th)/.936 (17th) | 38.2% | 13.2% | 8.09 | 3.62 | 4.59 |
| 2014 | SD | .808 (24th) | 39.7% | 7.8% | 9.27 | 3.13 | 3.21 |
| 2015 | SD | 1.224 (8th) | 38.4% | 20.6% | 8.31 | 2.62 | 5.25 |
Kennedy has always called a hitter’s park his home — except for last year, when the stars aligned magnificently during the best season of his career. An inflated strikeout rate and the friendly confines of Petco Park provided Kennedy’s fly ball tendencies ample wiggle room. (Despite neutral home run tendencies at Chase Field in 2013, Kennedy decided to ravage his WHIP with a miserable walk rate, burdening his FIP in the process.)
Then Petco Park developed self-efficacy and brought in the right field walls an average of 10 feet just to spite Kennedy and his fly ball tendencies. Like clockwork, Kennedy’s ratio of home runs to fly balls (HR/FB) versus left-handed hitters more than doubled from 2014 to 2015.
*unverifiable event
The difference between Kennedy’s best season (2014) and his worst (2015) could not be more striking. Each was a perfect storm in its own right. Last year, Kennedy induced his best ground ball rate (GB%) against lefties by far while also allowing the least amount of hard contact (Hard%) and his second-best pull rate (Pull%), all while striking out a career-best number of hitters in a pitcher-friendly park.
This year, he’s allowing career-worst rates of ground balls, soft hits (Soft%) and pulled balls in play versus lefties at a very hitter-friendly park. Moreover, Kennedy prevented fly balls better at home last year — another timely coincidence — whereas he prevents fly balls better on the road this year.
But I’m rambling: After suffering in hitter’s parks then promptly succeeding at old Petco, is a pitcher’s park all Kennedy needs to right the ship? It’s certainly not that simple, but I’m inclined to think it would help.
The question is immediately relevant because Kennedy may be shipping out of San Diego any day now. Early buzz linked him to, among other teams, the Miami Marlins, whose park ranks second-worst for hitters in terms of home runs this year. But a recent report mention the Toronto Blue Jays as potential suitors — Rogers Centre ranks in the top 10 for hitters.
A change of scenery, however, won’t cultivate success on its own. Should Kennedy head to Miami of all places, I would not expect a repeat of 2014’s performance — not without a significant change in his repertoire or approach, at least. His peripherals, heat maps, all of it have remained fairly consistent throughout his career.
Mostly, too many things went right in 2014, and his fly ball rate simply makes him too volatile a fantasy asset for his plate discipline metrics to not be elite like they nearly were in last year. His total batted ball distance that ranks 21st of 228 eligible pitchers validates the hard contact he has allowed this season regardless of environment.
Still, a spacious park may temper that volatility, seeing a few extra fly balls die on the warning track, so I’d be willing to gamble on Kennedy’s upside should this particular circumstance arise. Otherwise, Kennedy will continue his tenure as a boom-or-bust commodity, with the baserunner prevention to twirl a gem and the fly ball tendencies to give it all back. His 20.6% HR/FB is pretty absurd, but I wouldn’t bank on regression to the mean as his saving grace.
Two-time FSWA award winner, including 2018 Baseball Writer of the Year, and 8-time award finalist. Featured in the print edition of Baseball Prospectus since 2022 (2026 edition out now). Biased toward a nicely rolled baseball pant.
I’d say 2011 was his greatest year not 2014, but hey, what do I know.
I think it is a big jump to conclude that Petco is no longer a pitchers park because the Padres pitchers have given up a high HR/FB rate over what amounts to less than 50 games. There is a reason why we usually see park factors averaged out over multiple years. These take a long thing to stabilize.
Except they moved those fences in before 2013, mostly. This last year they brought the fence in an additional 34 inches. The big 10′ change happened before 2013. So we are now working with over 200 games – plus, you know, the opposing pitchers count too. So there is enough data now to remove much of the noise.
Petco was 20th in HR in 2014, 24th in 2014, and is currently 8th in 2015. So far a majority of those 200+ games, Petco still played like a pitcher friendly park. The fences moving 34 inches is almost nothing in terms of actual homerun totals and probably can’t be blamed for more than a couple homeruns, certainly not enough to jump from the bottom third of the league to the top third.
Weren’t people talking about a new building that changed the wind behaviour around the park?
Wouldn’t every pitcher benefit from a pitchers park?
Yes, which is why articles like this are mostly nonsense. There is zero evidence that fly ball pitchers benefit – moreso than other pitchers – from parks that suppress HR or hitters parks in general, even though it seems “intuitive.”
And to say that a pitcher who has pitched 2.5 years in Petco has always pitched in hitters parks is absurd. Petco, despite moving the fences in, and despite the 2015 park factors, is still an extreme pitchers park, probably the most in the NL. Just look at the Vegas over/under lines.
What matters more than fence distances are foul territory, altitude and weather.
I think a change in his batter mate might help the most….
*Battery
Why would Miami possibly trade for Kennedy only to lose him in two months?
Also, like others said, I don’t think anyone is buying the notion that he isnt in a great pitchers park already.
I would not trust any analysis coming from the guy who wrote this:
http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/carlos-gonzalez-a-premature-decline-perhaps/#comment-905759