Would Ian Kennedy Benefit from a Pitcher’s Park?

He did once. Can he again?

Ian Kennedy has been one of the least valuable starting pitchers of 2015, a fact probably unsurprising to San Diego residents and his fantasy owners. Of all pitchers who have thrown at least 60 innings and generated negative wins above replacement (WAR), his ratio of strikeouts to walks (3.18 K/BB) and xFIP (3.83) rise to the top of an admittedly short list.

Still, his rate of strikeouts per nine innings (8.31 K/9) ranks 36th among all starters, and his walks-per-nine (2.62 BB/9) is nothing to sneeze at, either. It’s easy to see why fantasy owners hold out hope: his adequacy in preventing baserunners points to reasons why his 4.58 ERA is, perhaps, too high.

Unfortunately, Kennedy is a fly ball machine who has (almost) never enjoyed the friendly confines of a pitcher’s park. Per ESPN’s Park Factors, Kennedy’s home parks have mostly benefited hitters:

Kennedy has always called a hitter’s park his home — except for last year, when the stars aligned magnificently during the best season of his career. An inflated strikeout rate and the friendly confines of Petco Park provided Kennedy’s fly ball tendencies ample wiggle room. (Despite neutral home run tendencies at Chase Field in 2013, Kennedy decided to ravage his WHIP with a miserable walk rate, burdening his FIP in the process.)

Then Petco Park developed self-efficacy and brought in the right field walls an average of 10 feet just to spite Kennedy and his fly ball tendencies. Like clockwork, Kennedy’s ratio of home runs to fly balls (HR/FB) versus left-handed hitters more than doubled from 2014 to 2015.

*unverifiable event

The difference between Kennedy’s best season (2014) and his worst (2015) could not be more striking. Each was a perfect storm in its own right. Last year, Kennedy induced his best ground ball rate (GB%) against lefties by far while also allowing the least amount of hard contact (Hard%) and his second-best pull rate (Pull%), all while striking out a career-best number of hitters in a pitcher-friendly park.

This year, he’s allowing career-worst rates of ground balls, soft hits (Soft%) and pulled balls in play versus lefties at a very hitter-friendly park. Moreover, Kennedy prevented fly balls better at home last year — another timely coincidence — whereas he prevents fly balls better on the road this year.

But I’m rambling: After suffering in hitter’s parks then promptly succeeding at old Petco, is a pitcher’s park all Kennedy needs to right the ship? It’s certainly not that simple, but I’m inclined to think it would help.

The question is immediately relevant because Kennedy may be shipping out of San Diego any day now. Early buzz linked him to, among other teams, the Miami Marlins, whose park ranks second-worst for hitters in terms of home runs this year. But a recent report mention the Toronto Blue Jays as potential suitors — Rogers Centre ranks in the top 10 for hitters.

A change of scenery, however, won’t cultivate success on its own. Should Kennedy head to Miami of all places, I would not expect a repeat of 2014’s performance — not without a significant change in his repertoire or approach, at least. His peripherals, heat maps, all of it have remained fairly consistent throughout his career.

Mostly, too many things went right in 2014, and his fly ball rate simply makes him too volatile a fantasy asset for his plate discipline metrics to not be elite like they nearly were in last year. His total batted ball distance that ranks 21st of 228 eligible pitchers validates the hard contact he has allowed this season regardless of environment.

Still, a spacious park may temper that volatility, seeing a few extra fly balls die on the warning track, so I’d be willing to gamble on Kennedy’s upside should this particular circumstance arise. Otherwise, Kennedy will continue his tenure as a boom-or-bust commodity, with the baserunner prevention to twirl a gem and the fly ball tendencies to give it all back. His 20.6% HR/FB is pretty absurd, but I wouldn’t bank on regression to the mean as his saving grace.