Why Doug Fister Is Not a One Year Wonder

He is not going to strikeout many batters, he relies heavily on a sinkerball while the Tigers have assembled one of the worst infield defenses in recent memory, and Steamer projections have him at a 4.42 ERA this year. Even so, I still see reasons to believe that Doug Fister may duplicate last year’s performance.

The main reason for my support of Fister is how different his repertoire was last year compared to the previous year and a half of his Major League career.

Frequency	Fourseam	Sinker	Cutter	Slider	Curveball	Changeup
2009	58%	4%	0%	7%	10%	22%
2010	16%	51%	10%	0%	9%	14%
2011	10%	48%	16%	0%	15%	11%

 

Velocity	Fourseam	Sinker	Cutter	Slider	Curveball	Changeup
2009	88.91	88.94	–	82.54	74.81	80.29
2010	89.17	89.09	84.78	–	74.56	81.9
2011	90.71	90.59	87.32	–	75.87	83.29

The above charts were organized using Brooks Baseball’s player cards. When Fister came up in 2009, he had a standard repertoire of fastball, changeup, curveball, and slider, while he also mixed in a few sinkers. He had a pretty low velocity and received pretty poor results with this repertoire, netting a 5.10 FIP and a 2.40 K/BB rate in 10 starts and 61 innings.

Fister began to alter his pitching approach the next year, moving toward a sinker-heavy arsenal and seeing improved velocity across the board. His slider picked up more speed than the rest of his pitches, making it look like a mix between a slider and cut fastball. With the changes on the mound, Fister saw his FIP drop to 3.65 and his K/BB rate rise to 2.91. He took steps in the right direction, and the new approach also saw his home run rate drop from 1.62 per nine to 0.68 per nine.

The big change in Fister’s pitching style occurred this past year. He completely scrapped the slider, replacing it with a cutter, and his velocity once again improved. The added velocity and lower reliance on both his fourseamer and changeup in favor of his cutter and curveball led to a breakout year, with his strikeout rate rising, his walk rate declining, and his home run rate decreasing for the second consecutive year. If there are three stats a pitcher can improve upon, those are the optimal three.

In looking at his new assortment of pitches, I was immediately reminded Dan Haren. The low walk total and big strikeout-to-walk ratio also seemed reminiscent of Haren – Fister finished with the league’s 12th best K/BB rate at 3.95. The following chart is Haren’s career pitch frequency and velocity compared to Fister’s rates last year.

	FA	SI	FC	CU	FS/CH
Haren	10%	34%	26%	16%	14%
Fister	10%	48%	16%	15%	11%

 

	vFA	vSI	vFC	vCU	vFS/CH
Haren	91.32	91.58	86.43	80.54	85.91
Fister	90.71	90.59	87.32	75.87	83.29

The velocity and frequency of each pitch is comparable, although Haren throws a harder split-fingered fastball in place of a changeup. Haren also throws a harder curveball and relies on the cutter more than Fister, but most pitchers are not going to be identical in this regard. Regardless, both repertoires are similar and Fister’s season looked a lot like a Haren season, albeit with a worse strikeout rate and a better home run rate. Haren’s career strikeout-to-walk ratio of 4.04 is very close to Fister’s aforementioned mark of 3.95 from last season.

I do not expect Fister to be the next Haren and start 33 games for six consecutive seasons while being worth no less than 4 wins in any season, but he does have the ability to repeat last year’s performance. Being a contact pitcher who relies on a sinker ball is certainly worrisome with Detroit’s defense, but I do not expect Fister to have anywhere near the 4.42 ERA and 3.98 FIP that Steamer suggests.

Projection systems do not pick up on an altered repertoire, which is one of the largest reasons for Fister’s big season. While it is easy to suggest a regression with Fister due to his results looking significantly different than any professional season he has had, one must account for Fister pitching differently than he ever has as well. I expect the ERA to rise, but I also expect Fister’s performance to stay consistent if he continues to rely on his sinker, cutter, and curveball at a similar frequency.

Valuing Fister in fantasy formats is difficult, and it largely depends on the quality of the players participating in the league. A league with many traditional fans may overvalue Fister, while a league of sabermetric studiers may anticipate a large regression and subsequently undervalue him. Be wary of your opponents when targeting Fister, but also understand that his breakout year does not look like a fluke.