Who’s Closing For The Blue Jays?
The Blue Jays were poised to lose their three best relief pitchers this offseason with Jason Frasor, Scott Downs, and Kevin Gregg all set to become free agents. Frasor accepted arbitration and will return in 2011, but Downs landed a three-year deal with the Angels and Gregg found two years in Baltimore. That left a considerable hole in Toronto’s bullpen, which they’ve addressed by signing Octavio Dotel and more recently Jon Rauch. Both have the “proven closer” tag (Dotel moreso than Rauch), so which one will see the save opportunities next season?
Like most relievers, both Dotel and Rauch have their flaws. Dotel has a massive platoon split (5.92 FIP vs. LHB since 2008, 3.29 vs. RHB) and puts quite a few runners on base (1.32 WHIP since ’08) because of walk issues (4.10 uIBB/9 since ’08). Rauch’s platoon split isn’t as pronounced but it exists (4.06 FIP vs. LHB since ’08, 3.26 FIP vs. RHB), and he also puts a bunch of runners on (also a 1.32 WHIP since ’08). It’s just that his come in the form of hits rather than walks (2.26 uIBB/9 since ’08). Both guys are extreme fly ball pitchers (33.2% GB since ’08 for Dotel, 35.1% for Rauch) moving into a park that inflates homer output by about 15% according to Stat Corner. But similar to what I said yesterday, I don’t think that will be a huge issue since these guys will only throw about 35 innings in their home park next summer, but it’s an issue nonetheless.
Dotel has a gigantic advantage in the strikeout department, as the guy can still get swings and misses with the best of them. His 11.27 K/9 since ’08 is third best in the game (behind only Carlos Marmol and Jonathan Broxton, min. 150 IP), and his 13.0% swinging strikes during that time is well above average the league average as well. Rauch is much more pedestrian when it comes to strike three. His 7.27 K/9 since ’08 (6.70 since ’09) and 8.8% swings and misses (8.1% since ’09) are pretty forgettable when it comes to late-inning relievers. Above league average (ever so slightly) for sure, but they don’t stand out.
Dotel comes off as having more blow-up potential given his age and the gigantic struggles against lefties in a division loaded with great left-handed hitters, but that alone probably isn’t enough to lose him the closer’s job just yet. Money can talk in these cases, but both guys received similar contracts (Dotel gets $3M next year, Rauch $3.5M and both have options with six-figure buyouts). If one was set to make considerably more money than the other next year, then maybe that would be a factor worth considering. But they don’t, so let’s ignore the pay scale.
The wildcard in all of this is new Blue Jays manager John Farrell. We have no idea what kind of manager he’ll be. He could be an old school guy who prefers the pitcher with the longer track record, or he could be a new school kind of guy that will use Dotel as a right-specialist strikeout machine in the seventh or eighth innings, allowing Rauch to start the ninth nice and clean with no one on base. Maybe he’s neither and gives the job to Frasor since he has tenure.
Unless the Jays come out and outright declare that so-and-so will be their closer before draft day, I’m leaning towards Dotel because he’s been worked the ninth inning for various teams for what feels like an eternity. It definitely a fluid situation though, Rauch will be right there looking over his shoulder should he falter. Either way, neither guy is worthy of a high pick, at best they’re third closers on a typical fantasy team that could be swapped in and out at will. I definitely wouldn’t recommend carrying both on their team simultaneously (the whole “draft a shaky closer and his backup” idea), I’d rather have neither.
Mike writes about the Yankees at River Ave. Blues and baseball in general at CBS Sports.
Personally I don’t see either man closing by the end of the year. David Purcey if he can continue to grow as a reliever has the ability. One of the current starters, particularly Zach Stewart could also be converted for a long term solution.