Who Will Win The Home Run Derby
I wrote up the home run derby contestants on our sister site The Hardball Times earlier in the day, but I thought I would give you some additional charts in case you were thinking about putting down some gummi bears on the outcome of the home run derby coming up soon. All stats in the charts are current Through Monday, July 15, and the odds come from Sports.Bodog.Eu. It looks like there are two front-runners according to these numbers.
Table #1, Overview
| Hitter | Handed | Odds | HR | PA/HR | ISO | Longest HR | Avg True Dist | Avg Spd Off Bat | wFA/C | wFT/C | wCH/C |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MLB AVG | – | – | 9 | 38.3 | 0.147 | – | 396.8 | 103.4 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Pedro Alvarez | LHB | 6:1 | 24 | 13.9 | 0.266 | 456 | 407.1 | 105.5 | 2.39 | 3.30 | -1.00 |
| David Wright | RHB | 11:1 | 13 | 30.7 | 0.203 | 464 | 404.7 | 103.4 | 0.80 | 2.67 | 3.53 |
| Bryce Harper | LHB | 5:1 | 13 | 18.6 | 0.259 | 434 | 406.5 | 104.7 | 0.07 | 4.76 | 1.29 |
| Michael Cuddyer | RHB | 14:1 | 16 | 19.8 | 0.239 | 434 | 406.8 | 103.9 | 1.16 | -1.13 | 1.83 |
| Prince Fielder | LHB | 7:2 | 16 | 26.4 | 0.190 | 460 | 396.2 | 102.4 | 0.11 | 0.27 | 0.70 |
| Robinson Cano | LHB | 5:1 | 21 | 19.5 | 0.229 | 442 | 401.4 | 103.4 | 0.82 | -0.02 | 4.49 |
| Yoenis Cespedes | RHB | 6:1 | 15 | 22.7 | 0.195 | 440 | 407.9 | 105.2 | 0.01 | 0.46 | -1.72 |
| Chris Davis | LHB | 11:4 | 37 | 10.6 | 0.402 | 439 | 403.9 | 103.8 | 2.04 | 2.22 | 5.35 |
Table #2: Batted Ball Data
| Hitter | Handed | Odds | No Doubt Homers | Just Enough Homers | Lucky Homers | Right | Center | Left | %Pull Field | %Center Field | %Opposite Field |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pedro Alvarez | LHB | 6:1 | 9 | 8 | 16 | 6 | 2 | 66.7% | 25.0% | 8.3% | |
| David Wright | RHB | 11:1 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 7 | 53.8% | 38.5% | 7.7% |
| Bryce Harper | LHB | 5:1 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 7 | 3 | 3 | 53.8% | 23.1% | 23.1% |
| Michael Cuddyer | RHB | 14:1 | 2 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 8 | 50.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | |
| Prince Fielder | LHB | 7:2 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 12 | 4 | 75.0% | 25.0% | 0.0% | |
| Robinson Cano | LHB | 5:1 | 6 | 4 | 4 | 13 | 5 | 3 | 61.9% | 23.8% | 14.3% |
| Yoenis Cespedes | RHB | 6:1 | 2 | 6 | 1 | 7 | 7 | 46.7% | 46.7% | 6.7% | |
| Chris Davis | LHB | 11:4 | 8 | 9 | 2 | 14 | 12 | 11 | 37.8% | 32.4% | 29.7% |
Table #3: Projected Citi Field Effect
| Hitter | Odds | Lost Homers | Marginal Homers | Impact Rate | Degree of Impact |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pedro Alvarez | 6:1 | 1 | 1 | 8.3% | Medium |
| David Wright | 11:1 | 0.0% | None | ||
| Bryce Harper | 5:1 | 0.0% | None | ||
| Michael Cuddyer | 14:1 | 1 | 6.3% | Marginal | |
| Prince Fielder | 7:2 | 2 | 1 | 18.8% | High |
| Robinson Cano | 5:1 | 1 | 4 | 23.8% | Very High |
| Yoenis Cespedes | 6:1 | 1 | 2 | 20.0% | High |
| Chris Davis | 11:4 | 2 | 1 | 8.1% | Medium |
Table #4: Temperature Data
| Time | Temperature |
|---|---|
| 8:00 PM | 92 |
| 9:00 PM | 89 |
| 10:00 PM | 88 |
| 11:00 PM | 87 |
| Expected Impact: | “+6 feet |
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Jeffrey Gross is an attorney who periodically moonlights as a (fantasy) baseball analyst. He also responsibly enjoys tasty adult beverages. You can read about those adventures at his blog and/or follow him on Twitter @saBEERmetrics.
Kind of odd to say that there are 2 favorites, but not mention who or why they are.
I sincerely hope you’re just trolling.
Mike,
I make my favorites recommendation on the THT Article that is linked, but my two favorites are Alvarez and Harper. I think Wright is the dark horse. I am rooting for Chris Davis to win it all, however, as I have a long time crush on his potential that finally feels vindicated.
Just an FYI for those reading, if a row/column above is blank, that means it’s a “zero”
Why were “plenty” homers excluded?
This Pitbull performance is fascinating. Where is the open thread for the Derby? Aren’t home runs the point of baseball anyway? The only thing missing from the performance seems to be a highway overpass.
Worst. Lip. Synching. Ever. (and the air guitar was legendary bad too)
I can’t stand Pitbull. I can’t judge the performance since I didn’t see it, but it can’t be worse than his music. I guess if it was lip synching, it was exactly as bad as his music…
Cespedes.
I have been looking over these three charts, and I cannot see how it points to Harper and Alvarez as the front-runners. Which stats are leading you to those two?
I am going with my former Brewer, giant Prince Fielder, hittin’ baseballs, out to Neptune.
I also admire Chris Davis (and have over drafted him twice while he was with the Rangers), but I’ll go with Prince.
*they point… Sorry for the grammar slip.
Weird timing for the reply…DVR?
I think Jeff is saying that his favorites are Harper and Alvarez, but that the stats point to two clear favorites (as Alvarez/Wright were #1/2 in each category).
Ha, yeah, I hadn’t started watching yet. I think Prince was already gone by the time I posted.
The “odds” column, per usual, shows the favorites. That’s it. So it’s Davis and Fielder.
Dang! Poor Harper. Great performance by Cespedes.
I was looking at age (and assumed durability) expected impact of citi field and avg home run distance. I think handedness helped Cespedes, but still find it fascinating that he’s been the worst changeup hitter of the group this year and yet won it all.
None of the previous recent winners were all that young, right?
For Cespedes, I guess he had the distance and ball speed off bat working in his favor, but yeah, the changeup value makes it surprising. The guy pitching to Cespedes was throwing the ball with a somewhat strange downward trajectory.
Winner: http://goldandorsmith.com/GIFs/CespedesBatFlip.gif
Just looking at table 1 true distance and speed off bat it was Cespedes or Alvarez. Anyways, completely different game hitting BP pitches and live pitching. Not enough data to really project anything, although if you have a chance to watch players in BP you probably have a better shot at it.