Who Will Win The Home Run Derby
I wrote up the home run derby contestants on our sister site The Hardball Times earlier in the day, but I thought I would give you some additional charts in case you were thinking about putting down some gummi bears on the outcome of the home run derby coming up soon. All stats in the charts are current Through Monday, July 15, and the odds come from Sports.Bodog.Eu. It looks like there are two front-runners according to these numbers.
Table #1, Overview
| Hitter | Handed | Odds | HR | PA/HR | ISO | Longest HR | Avg True Dist | Avg Spd Off Bat | wFA/C | wFT/C | wCH/C |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MLB AVG | – | – | 9 | 38.3 | 0.147 | – | 396.8 | 103.4 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Pedro Alvarez | LHB | 6:1 | 24 | 13.9 | 0.266 | 456 | 407.1 | 105.5 | 2.39 | 3.30 | -1.00 |
| David Wright | RHB | 11:1 | 13 | 30.7 | 0.203 | 464 | 404.7 | 103.4 | 0.80 | 2.67 | 3.53 |
| Bryce Harper | LHB | 5:1 | 13 | 18.6 | 0.259 | 434 | 406.5 | 104.7 | 0.07 | 4.76 | 1.29 |
| Michael Cuddyer | RHB | 14:1 | 16 | 19.8 | 0.239 | 434 | 406.8 | 103.9 | 1.16 | -1.13 | 1.83 |
| Prince Fielder | LHB | 7:2 | 16 | 26.4 | 0.190 | 460 | 396.2 | 102.4 | 0.11 | 0.27 | 0.70 |
| Robinson Cano | LHB | 5:1 | 21 | 19.5 | 0.229 | 442 | 401.4 | 103.4 | 0.82 | -0.02 | 4.49 |
| Yoenis Cespedes | RHB | 6:1 | 15 | 22.7 | 0.195 | 440 | 407.9 | 105.2 | 0.01 | 0.46 | -1.72 |
| Chris Davis | LHB | 11:4 | 37 | 10.6 | 0.402 | 439 | 403.9 | 103.8 | 2.04 | 2.22 | 5.35 |
Table #2: Batted Ball Data
| Hitter | Handed | Odds | No Doubt Homers | Just Enough Homers | Lucky Homers | Right | Center | Left | %Pull Field | %Center Field | %Opposite Field |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pedro Alvarez | LHB | 6:1 | 9 | 8 | 16 | 6 | 2 | 66.7% | 25.0% | 8.3% | |
| David Wright | RHB | 11:1 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 7 | 53.8% | 38.5% | 7.7% |
| Bryce Harper | LHB | 5:1 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 7 | 3 | 3 | 53.8% | 23.1% | 23.1% |
| Michael Cuddyer | RHB | 14:1 | 2 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 8 | 50.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | |
| Prince Fielder | LHB | 7:2 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 12 | 4 | 75.0% | 25.0% | 0.0% | |
| Robinson Cano | LHB | 5:1 | 6 | 4 | 4 | 13 | 5 | 3 | 61.9% | 23.8% | 14.3% |
| Yoenis Cespedes | RHB | 6:1 | 2 | 6 | 1 | 7 | 7 | 46.7% | 46.7% | 6.7% | |
| Chris Davis | LHB | 11:4 | 8 | 9 | 2 | 14 | 12 | 11 | 37.8% | 32.4% | 29.7% |
Table #3: Projected Citi Field Effect
| Hitter | Odds | Lost Homers | Marginal Homers | Impact Rate | Degree of Impact |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pedro Alvarez | 6:1 | 1 | 1 | 8.3% | Medium |
| David Wright | 11:1 | 0.0% | None | ||
| Bryce Harper | 5:1 | 0.0% | None | ||
| Michael Cuddyer | 14:1 | 1 | 6.3% | Marginal | |
| Prince Fielder | 7:2 | 2 | 1 | 18.8% | High |
| Robinson Cano | 5:1 | 1 | 4 | 23.8% | Very High |
| Yoenis Cespedes | 6:1 | 1 | 2 | 20.0% | High |
| Chris Davis | 11:4 | 2 | 1 | 8.1% | Medium |
Table #4: Temperature Data
| Time | Temperature |
|---|---|
| 8:00 PM | 92 |
| 9:00 PM | 89 |
| 10:00 PM | 88 |
| 11:00 PM | 87 |
| Expected Impact: | “+6 feet |
Jeffrey Gross is an attorney who periodically moonlights as a (fantasy) baseball analyst. He also responsibly enjoys tasty adult beverages. You can read about those adventures at his blog and/or follow him on Twitter @saBEERmetrics.
Kind of odd to say that there are 2 favorites, but not mention who or why they are.
I sincerely hope you’re just trolling.
Mike,
I make my favorites recommendation on the THT Article that is linked, but my two favorites are Alvarez and Harper. I think Wright is the dark horse. I am rooting for Chris Davis to win it all, however, as I have a long time crush on his potential that finally feels vindicated.