Who to Sell in Ottoneu

by
June 8, 2023

A couple of weeks ago, I went through my league 1 roster and outlined who I might use to try to buy as I make a run for the top of the standings. Today, we’ll go the other direction, using my Keep or Kut Listener League team as inspiration for a deep dive into who you should sell, should you need to sell.

First, some quick background. Keep or Kut is the podcast I co-host with Pete Ball where we talk keeper leagues of all types, including an awful lot of Ottoneu content. This league is one we promoted on the show and via our Twitter account to fill up with listeners. It’s a fun, active league, and I finished 2nd last year and hoped to get over the top this year.

Hoped, as in past tense, because I no longer have that hope, because my team, it turns out, is trash. I have had stars underperforming, injuries, and every breakout I bet on has fallen flat. It became apparent early that I was not going to get to the top, or even the top third, or even the top half, and so I started selling. I have made two deals already:

But even with those deals out of the way, I am not done. Like I did a two weeks ago, I will break down my roster into buckets with how I think about trading them when I am playing for next year.

Expected to be Part of My Core and Unlikely to Move

Honestly, this is a weak group. I like all of them, but this isn’t exactly a stacked core to build around. It has one pitcher. It has five guys with no MLB experience, two guys who are currently injured, and a bunch of question marks. I think when combined with the next groups, there are enough keepers here to build a strong team, but my goal over the next couple of months is to make this group stronger.

My concern is that it will get weaker. I love Nootbaar, but I expect to see more pop and if that doesn’t develop, he slides down a group, maybe two. Cowser, Encarnacion-Strand, Gilbert, Naylor and Carter could all debut and not perform. Lewis could fail to live up to the high expectations.

But for now, barring an unexpectedly exciting offer, I don’t plan to move any of these guys.

Believe in Their Future, Want to See How it Plays Out

This group starts to make things more interesting. Gimenez has been better lately and Steer is looking like the real deal – if he adds OF eligibility (as of right now, he will be 1B/3B only next year), he could become a core piece quickly. Naylor is quietly better than people realize.

But there are a lot of concerns here, as well. Melendez has underperformed, Marsh is fading a bit after his hot start, Wesneski hasn’t performed consistently, etc. Some of these guys are probably better being trade candidates than keepers (Melendez and Naylor, in particular), but I am not sure their trade value is where it should be, so I would rather just wait it out and see.

In a way, that is what this group is all about – these are guys who are in flux and could move up or down, but right now they might be even harder to trade than the tier above them because I expect their value to go up.

Think This is a Keeper Price, but I’ll Put Them On the Block

Oh, here are all my pitchers. This group combines some players who just sorta fairly paid (Webb, Happ, maybe India) with some players who are underperforming what I think they should be worth. I want to love a $21 price on Adames, but this year he isn’t hitting that level. Same with a $22 Snell and $12 Montgomery.

Lively, Garrett, and Bradish I could argue belong in the tier above, but all have concerns that pushed them down for me. For Lively and Garrett, I am not confident in their long-term roles. For Bradish, the performance has been too inconsistent.

In total, this group are all players I would move, but I don’t have to. This isn’t just “well, the best offer I got was a mediocre prospect and a $1 OF so I guess I’ll take it” territory (more on that below), but if someone wants to make an offer that I think makes me better next year, I would take it.

Already Have Boxes by Their Locker to Help Them Pack

These guys, on the other hand, will likely not be on my roster by the deadline. Machado, Contreras, and Nola all have real trade value (all have attracted offers) and once I find an offer to my liking (or once we get too close to the deadline for me to keep being picky), they’ll get moved. The rest of this tier are guys I would happily trade for any interesting player. They’re also the most likely to be cut if/when I need space on my roster.

Injured and So Who Knows

These guys fit nowhere. They are all on the 60-day IL so they don’t use up roster spots. They are eating up $26 in salary combined, but cutting them all would only net me $11 in savings. At least two and arguably three of these guys (Hoskins and Mahle for sure, Rodgers maybe) could prove to be keepers by the time January rolls around. Or they could be easy cuts.

But they have no trade value to a buyer. I could probably put them on the block and trade them to another seller, but a team fighting for the title isn’t trading a prospect or anything for an injured player, especially someone set to miss the season. So all I can do is wait them out and see if they come back healthy and build up trade value before the end of August.

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So what should you take away from all of this? This is less about the players I mentioned and more about a framework for thinking about how to sell, how to set prices, and how to communicate with trade partners.

I’ll probably put everyone from the “Already Have Boxes…” and “Think This is a Keeper…” buckets on my block, perhaps along with some of the others. When I get inquiries, I’ll try to be clear where my head is. For example, if someone wants pitching, I’ll let them know Nola is likely to move once I find the right offer, but that Webb will take a little convincing.

Before you get deep into trade negotiations, you should think through these kinds of things, as well. Who are you definitely moving because you can’t see keeping them? Who might you keep, but moving them could be the better move? Who do you really prefer to keep?

I have also talked throughout about players whose value might move up or down. This is where you need to be honest with yourself about how you value players vs. how the market views them. Even in leagues where I am buying, I have a hard time trading Evan Carter because I see him as a core piece for the future, not just a random prospect. In this league, Gimenez is a tough sell because his value is down, but I think he’s going to have a huge second half.

Even a player like Snell is intersting on this front. He has some trade value. His $22 price probably feels high to most managers, so his trade value is probably low, or at least assumes that he is an obvious cut in the off-season. I don’t think that is true. I think he’ll show that he is a decent value at $22. So while he makes a lot of sense for me as a trade piece, it’s unlikely I will find a deal. Until he rattles off a few great starts and changes public perception or until I grow tired of waiting for him to rattle off a few great starts, my value on him doesn’t match the trade market.

In fact, I think you could be better off organizing your roster in a 3×3 matrix with rows Definite Keep, Possible Keep, Definite Trade and columns Value Moving Up, Value Steady, Value Moving Down. Something like this:

It might be more accurate to say that I think their value will trend up or down in those columns. But the point is, the further right and the further down a player is, the more aggressive you want to shop them. The top left are guys I plan to keep and who I think are only going to be more valuable in the future. Valdez, meanwhile, I expect to see decrease in value and I don’t expect to keep him – the sooner I can move him, the better.





 

A long-time fantasy baseball veteran and one of the creators of ottoneu, Chad Young's writes for RotoGraphs and PitcherList, and can be heard on the ottobot podcast. You can follow him on Twitter @chadyoung.

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SculpinMember since 2025
1 year ago

Josh Naylor has done something you don’t see often…he has quietly improved his Statcast numbers every year and now has borderline elite numbers and an optimistic xwOBA. Since his season line remains mediocre he might still be available in some shallow mixers, and he makes a good trade target IMO.

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