Who Changed Their Vertical Movement The Most Last Year?

When we looked at movement and velocity with respect to changeups, curves, sliders, and rising fastballs, we found that more movement was almost always better. It gets a little bit more complicated that than that — drop is mostly better for swinging strikes and horizontal movement was better for grounders, and the effects are not super large — but it’s a decent pole to hang on to in the storm that is projecting pitchers.

We can then easily do the query that asks: which pitches changed the most from last year to this year?

More drop (unless you’re talking more rise) is almost always a good thing, no matter what the pitch. So these are the players added the most drop. Let’s also focus on the starters, just because the variance in year-to-year relief pitching is so great that a few inches here or there seems like a mole hill.

A word about drop and rise. A supposedly spinless ball would drop a certain amount, which actually lines up with some sliders. Don’t worry about that. Balls that don’t drop as much as they should are considered to have rise. That means they have back spin and ‘jump’ at the batter by typically dropping about two inches less than other four-seamers. A four-seam fastball typically scores high (+9 average four-seam Pfx_z), a sinker drops another three inches (+6), a change drops another two inches (+4), a slider drops another two inches (+1), and a curve drops another six inches (-5). Just to give you the continuum.

Pitchers That Added The Most Drop

pitcher	pitch_type	avg(pfx_x)	avg(pfx_z)	diff x	diff y	15 swSTR%	15 GB%
David Holmberg	CU	-2.9	-9.5	2.0	-8.8	2%	67%
Rich Hill	CU	-8.7	-7.5	0.4	-4.6	9%	63%
Vidal Nuno	CH	7.6	5.0	0.3	-3.4	12%	54%
J.A. Happ	FT	9.0	3.4	-0.5	-3.0	6%	60%
Shane Greene	CU	6.6	0.0	0.0	-3.0	12%	33%
Chris Tillman	SL	3.3	3.3	1.0	-2.8	7%	51%
Jaime Garcia	CH	8.1	3.2	1.0	-2.6	17%	57%
Michael Wacha	FC	0.5	5.7	0.6	-2.6	8%	47%
Allen Webster	FT	-7.5	3.9	-0.5	-2.5	6%	46%
Rick Porcello	CU	8.5	-8.2	1.4	-2.5	7%	55%
Randy Wolf	CH	7.8	5.7	-0.8	-2.5	4%	40%
Mat Latos	CU	3.4	-6.1	0.5	-2.5	12%	54%
Erik Johnson	SL	2.7	2.2	0.8	-2.4	10%	35%
Shelby Miller	CH	-7.9	4.5	-1.2	-2.4	9%	36%
Carlos Martinez	FA	-8.9	2.8	-3.0	-2.4	26%	73%
Chase Whitley	SL	3.5	1.4	1.0	-2.3	16%	48%
Tommy Milone	CU	-3.3	-4.6	0.5	-2.3	12%	48%
Mike Pelfrey	SL	1.9	2.7	-1.1	-2.3	10%	48%
Nathan Eovaldi	CH	-4.6	2.2	3.1	-2.3	16%	75%
Travis Wood	FC	-0.9	6.1	0.0	-2.2	8%	51%
Jake Odorizzi	SL	6.1	3.1	2.0	-2.2	8%	8%

I believe Rich Hill probably benefited from more drop on his curveball this year. Jaime Garcia‘s change up did well and he looked healthier — it’s never really about performance for him, though. Carlos Martinez added sink on everything and was awesome. Michael Wacha’s cutter, with more drop, might actually make him better in the future. Don’t forget he’s only 24.

The most interesting one might be Shelby Miller’s change. That added a lot more drop last year and was more effective in the late going. If he has a workable change, he might actually stave off all the problems people are ready to hang on his D-back line. Like maybe he should give up more homers except now he has a changeup.

Some were failed experiments. Chris Tillman was trying out a sinker and it didn’t work. Rick Porcello’s curve added more drop but became a grounders-only pitch almost (the average curve gets 11% whiffs). Chase Whitley added more drop and then his elbow blew out. Mike Pelfrey is a failed experiment.

Others I think are more noise than signal. Shane Greene was trying to figure out like eight different breaking balls. Mat Latos wasn’t healthy. Jake Odorizzi was trying to figure out his slider and his cutter and his curve, and I don’t think that book has been written yet. Multiple breaking balls you can’t always control can make you Luke Gregerson or it can make you Odrisamer Despaigne.

And the losers in vertical movement. Or gainers, if you’re thinking about getting some pop-ups with rising four-seamers. Life is weird.

Pitchers That Added The Most Rise

Pitcher	type	15 pfx_x	15 pfx_z	diff x	diff y	velo	velo 14	diff velo	Pitch swSTR	Pitch GB
Roenis Elias	CU	-6.8	-4.1	0.6	4.1	78.2	80	-1.8	15%	48%
Kyle Hendricks	FC	-1.6	7.9	-1.4	3.9	88.1	88.4	-0.3	5%	38%
Erasmo Ramirez	CU	4.2	0.6	0.5	3.8	84	78.1	5.9	15%	46%
David Hale	CU	3.9	2.1	0.1	3.5	85.5	81.9	3.6	18%	38%
Chris Young	SL	2.6	5.1	-0.8	3.3	80.4	79.5	0.9	16%	31%
Alex Wood	KC	-2.1	-1.8	1.1	3.3	78.1	79.1	-1	16%	55%
Kyle Kendrick	SL	3.7	-2.9	-0.2	3.2	77.7	80.2	-2.5	11%	52%
Adam Warren	SL	3.9	4.1	-1.0	3.1	84.7	85.3	-0.6	10%	45%
Hisashi Iwakuma	FF	-6.6	7.8	0.9	3.1	88	86.1	1.9	10%	33%
Kyle Hendricks	FF	-2.1	8.3	2.0	3.1	88.1	87.9	0.2	3%	47%
Roenis Elias	FT	9.0	6.6	1.2	3.0	89.8	91.7	-1.9	6%	52%
Erasmo Ramirez	CH	-6.9	3.9	0.2	3.0	78.2	78.9	-0.7	21%	58%
Trevor May	SL	4.0	0.5	-0.6	2.9	78.6	82.8	-4.2	5%	52%
Jarred Cosart	CU	3.4	-7.0	-3.1	2.8	81.7	79.9	1.8	13%	63%
Edinson Volquez	KC	5.1	-4.9	-1.0	2.7	82.8	79.4	3.4	9%	48%
Jarred Cosart	SI	-4.0	6.7	1.0	2.6	95.8	94.6	1.2	6%	53%
Anthony DeSclafani	SL	1.8	2.1	-0.4	2.5	87.1	79.9	7.2	18%	45%
Jason Hammel	SL	2.9	-0.2	-0.1	2.5	83.2	83.7	-0.5	17%	45%
Alex Colome	CH	-2.4	7.3	0.1	2.4	85.4	86.3	-0.9	12%	41%
Chris Bassitt	FF	-5.2	7.9	3.4	2.3	94.3	92.5	1.8	10%	32%
Jesse Chavez	CU	8.2	-5.0	-1.3	2.3	75.5	73.7	1.8	16%	56%
Nicholas Tropeano	FT	-8.4	8.7	0.6	2.3	89.7	89	0.7	4%	29%
Danny Duffy	CU	-3.6	-3.8	0.6	2.2	84.8	76.1	8.7	10%	51%
Tanner Roark	FF	-2.7	10.6	4.5	2.2	92.1	88.8	3.3	15%	25%
Kyle Ryan	FF	3.5	7.6	-2.0	2.2	88.9	89.7	-0.8	5%	47%

Most of this list lost drop on their pitches, which isn’t good. Not good to see the curves from Alex Wood, Danny Duffy, and Jarred Cosart on here. Maybe some of the breaking ball pitches are just the pitcher throwing another kind of breaking ball and screwing up the algorithms (Anthony DeSclafani). But those that were just throwing the same pitches as before, with less drop, you’re losing a weapon — your only weapon in the case of Danny Duffy, who’s once owned an average pitch. I continue to be suspicious of Cosart and Wood, who have some things going for them, and some opportunity, but just weren’t any good last year.

If Tanner Roark had a four-seamer with more rise and used it more often, maybe that could be a trick in his bag. Kyle Hendricks and Hisashi Iwakuma basically lost sink on their two-seamers it looks like. They are still average when it comes to vertical movement on their four-seamers either way. Changing movement towards average movement is not always good.

It’s not an exact science either way, but when performance changes with new pitch movements, you notice. Michael Wacha, Carlos Martinez, Rich Hill, Shelby Miller, and also on the bad side Alex Wood, Jarred Cosart, and Danny Duffy — you’ve got a small enough sample size that a few inches of movement, lost or gained, might mean everything.