Which Hot Hitting Shortstops to Buy
Of the top seven shortstops so far according to wRC+, just one was drafted in ten-team mixed leagues according to ESPN. That would be Jhonny Peralta who went 11th among shortstops on average. Five of the top seven, including Peralta, are primarily riding some good fortune on balls in play so far, but two guys are having success with somewhat reasonable BABIPs, Zack Cozart and Wilmer Flores.
BABIP is not the only statistic in which Cozart (.313) and Flores (.310) have been similar so far. On the positive end of things, they each have a few home runs (four for Cozart, three for Flores), and neither is striking out too much as they each have a strikeout rate in between 16 and 17 percent. They also each have a R+RBI total of 17 through Saturday’s games. On the bad end of things, neither one is drawing enough walks as the each have a walk rate under four percent.
Both will see their BABIPs decline and should see their batting average settle in the .250-.265 range, with Flores likely to be the better of the two in that department given his ability to avoid the strikeout in the minors and in his MLB debut last year. In terms of runs and RBI, Flores figures to be a bit better in those cats as well going forward because the Mets appear to have a slightly better lineup at this point. Both guys hit towards the bottom of the order, and Cozart has been there for several years. Flores is not necessarily entrenched in the bottom of the order and could hit his way up the lineup a bit, which gives him another potential advantage in the counting cats.
As far as power goes, Cozart is well on his way to bouncing back from a home run per fly ball rate of 2.5 percent last year. In the two years prior his HR/FB rate was between eight and nine percent with home run totals between 12 and 15. Projecting him to finish in that range again is more than reasonable. From here on out ZiPS has him pegged for .250 with 10 HR and 95 R+RBI.
As for Flores, optimisitc scouting reports from his prospect days projected him to potentially be a 15-18 home run guy, and ZiPS and Steamer both have him projected to hit that range this year. At 6-3, 205 he certainly has the frame for it, and with a career fly ball rate in the upper 30’s, he hits enough balls in the air to reach that mark. From now on ZiPS has him projected to hit .268 with 16 HR and 132 R+RBI. That may be a hair optimisitc, but Flores’ room for growth and upside is what makes him more attractive than Cozart, even if Cozart does get back to being what he was a couple of years ago.
Cozart has seen his ownership percentage shoot up to well over 50 percent in ESPN leagues, but Flores is still only owned in eight percent of leagues. If you were using Ben Zobrist at SS and need a replacement, or if Jose Reyes happens to hit the DL, or even if you’re ready to give up on Erick Aybar (don’t), Flores is your guy. He’s a much better option than other shortstops off to a hot start like Jose Iglesias, Freddy Galvis and Adeiny Hechavarria.
You can find more of Brett's work on TheFantasyFix.com or follow him on Twitter @TheRealTAL.
The weird lady down the street has a lead on both of them when it comes to counting cats.
Hechevarria is an interesting case, some of his production is a very high but not absurdly so BABIP, but most of it comes down to whether or not his ISO spike is remotely sustainable. Haven’t heard any commentary on whether or not he can keep this up beyond “of course he can’t!”, which to me is seldom a satisfactory answer.
Odd to not mention Jed Lowrie at all. Healthy plus batters ballpark is a decent combo.
Was simply taking a look at guys for which I didn’t think BABIP was a big part of the analysis. Maybe the title/intro didn’t make that clear.
And now he’s not healthy.
yeah, that sure took care of itself quickly :p nevermind!
Can Iglesias maintain this start, or would you be more inclined to roll with Segura? If Iglesias is simply the 8-hole guy, I don’t foresee much upside. Tough to see him climbing that lineup given the roster.
Give me Segura’s steals there. Only bankable production between the two of them.
I’m not sure there is that big of a difference. Segura only stole 20 last year and has 3 thus far. Inglesias has two partial (~2/3) seasons in the Sox system with 12 and has 5 thus far. Assuming both their BAs level out in the .260 range, I think they could have essentially the same counting stats, steals included.
Would you continue to roll with Flores or drop for either Peralta or Segura?
Peralta is the safer play. I personally might gamble on Flores’ upside, but Peralta is the safe choice.
Is it time to give up on Danny Santana and pick up Flores?
Unless you need Santana’s speed, I would.
As a Twin’s fan, I think Santana is ticketed for AAA soon. His defense has been terrible at short and the Twins have a capable backup in Escobar on the bench.
What scares me about Santana as well is he was terrible in CF and Hicks is hitting well in AAA, which means Santana could be left without a MLB position if his defense doesnt get better–fast.
Would you guys put Segura above these options?
1a. PEralta 1b. Flores 2. Segura 3. Cozart
Thanks man. Good piece.
I just dropped him yesterday. Going to keep an eye on him but he is so far behind at this point, he won’t be at the top of any lists. Not to mention he has the “told you so” moniker attached to his name. Based on that and his natural regression I just don’t think someone will scoop him up. And finally, they dropped him in the order there as well.
Flores is also eligible at Second Base in my league, is he a better option as a fill-in for both Zobrist and Rendon (my two 2nd Basemen break out, go figure) or should I stick with Luis Valbuena who is off to a nice power start, but his batting average and other counting stats are quite low right now.
I prefer Flores.
I somehow drafted Elvis Andrus again this year even after last year’s poor showing. Now he has moved down in the batting order, and I don’t even need the SB. Would it make sense to drop Andrus for a waiver wire pickup: say a Lowrie, Flores, Aybar, Iglesias or other?
Yes, but I would first try to sell Andrus to someone in your league who still thinks he is a good Fantasy option. His name might still carry value, even if the player does not.
I would drop him for Lowrie of Flores but agree that it makes sense to see if anyone will take him in a trade.
Start Addison Russell or Wilmer Flores for week 4 in a utility slot?
Aybar is sitting on our waiver wire. Thoughts about picking him up, dropping Inciate and moving Hanley to the OF?
I think Inciate and Aybar is essentially the same type of player. Low power, decent Average guys. I would lean Inciate over Aybar, just because I think Inciate (with enough AB’s) can steal 20-25 bases, something Aybar probably wont touch. The value to owning Aybar is he is a guy on your bench you can plug in at SS when Hanley inevitably gets banged up.
I prefer Aybar just because of position.
Flores over Semien in a H2H points league (-1 for Ks)? Ignoring Semien’s position flexibility.
Ignoring flexibility? Yes.
pick one at ss for the next month, 5×5 roto: andrus, aybar, santana
Hechavarrtia is ranked #1 in the last 7 days, #2 in the last 14 days, and #18 for the season. This dude will not stop producing, until i finally pick him up and he goes 0-3 against dillon gee of the Mets!?!?!?!? Meanwhile Jed Lowrie who was also available goes 2-3 with a HR…I cant win. We have all read from the scouts that Hech doesnt have much pop in his bat or speed so he is irrelevant to fantasy. Unfortunately being ranked the # 2 fantasy baseball player 2 weeks in a row makes him more than relevant, He is now a priority and one of the more intriguing stories to this young baseball season. He is still batting 8th in the order, given the unfortunate circumstance Prado is injured. Is Hech the automatic candidate? If he produces half of what he is doing now his value will sky rocket batting in between Dee Gordon and Stanton.