Where to Rank the Young Aces?
Let’s throw some hyped names into the equation. After each name, I listed their NESN NFBC Average Draft Position (ADP) as of 1.15.16 followed by where I have them ranked without a position adjustment according to Rotochamp composite projections (1.12.16):
- Luis Severino: 158.50 ADP vs. 391 (-233)
- Raisel Iglesias: 166.72 vs. 148 (+19)
- Joe Ross: 209.61 vs. 358 (-148)
- Lance McCullers: 129.39 vs. 120 (+9)
- Aaron Nola: 233.39 vs. 288 (-55)
Rotochamp and Steamer grounds our expectations. If you adhere to their projections/these rankings, you might not land Severino, Ross or Nola. ADP on the other hand will make you reach at times. Eno provided a KPU-BB leaderboard (K% + Pop-up% – BB%) this past Tuesday. Here is another approach to ranking starters in addition to our Pitch Repertoire Scores.
Look to their peripherals and rank them by skills. Here is one subjective approach. I z-score the following skills and weigh each one by it’s correlation to expected ERA):
- zGB/FB+zIFFB%
- Average z-score between Ct% and SwStr%
- zK-BB%
- Average z-score between Soft% and Hard%
Summing up these four z-scores, we’re left with the following leader board (50 IP Qualifier):
We have some good references. Just keep in mind “luck stats” highlighted in light red (ERA vs. expected ERA; Left on Base% and Homer-to-fly ratio).
Raisel Iglesias is good. Top 20 good — just above Michael Pineda and Matt Harvey using this approach. If he could leave more batters on base, he would have been Drew Smyly good. Other than overall command (K-BB%), Iglesias was better accross the board. In fact, he was Zack Greinke good outside of the LOB and HR/FB rates.
When you think of 2015 Joe Ross, think of 2015 James Shields whose going 60+ picks early on average.
Luis Severino compares well to Garrett Richards as well as Yordano Ventura and Gio Gonzalez, however Severino had a better effect than the latter two on hitters’ balls in play. Richards has better swing-and-miss stuff, but Severino had better overall command.
Hisashi Iwakuma is a good comp for Lance McCullers. McCullers was slightly luckier (3.22 ERA vs. 3.54 expected ERA), but McCullers will accumulate as much value from his strikeout rate, which compares to Matt Harvey, Cole Hamels and Carlos Martinez (less swing-and-miss stuff compared to these three though).
Aaron Nola…Give me Jerad Eickhoff 100 picks later.
This matrix can also help you with solid deep options:
…As well as hyped names from the recent past:
Daniel Schwartz contributes for RotoGraphs when he's not selling industry leading thermal packaging. You can follow him on twitter @RotoBanter
This is a heck of a conundrum. Last year i dealt very cheap Arrietta and Carrasco for more expensive and shorter to keep Lester and Cueto….I was pretty happy with the deals, but clearly they didnt work out….
Awesome article to have bookmarked for draft-day.
Though, am I wrong that my takeaway is that the guy to reach for is Francisco Liriano?
no – i drafted him in 8th round of NFBC yesterday (as my SP 2).
…so long as he stays healthy.
Or Tyson Ross showing up among the top 10 names.
Tyson Ross got stuff.
I don’t get the Iglesias/Smyly comp. Assuming a higher number is better, than Iglesias is already better than Smyly using this method of comparison. So Iglesias improving his LoB% would just make him more betterer.
keep in mind ‘luck’ categories and Iglesias is also in Cincy.
No Steven Matz?
under the IP qualifier.
Not if you count postseason! (wink, wink)
Great work! I wish I completely understood the methodology. Me = 2dumb.
Sort of misses out on expected IP, no? That is a huge factor for these young guys.
Definitely – same with win totals
This has Cole Hamels ranked better than most other rankings do. Any thoughts on him?
he’s still great – just in the AL.
Last year I took my first pitcher in the 8th round and ended up with Liriano, Carrasco, Arrieta, Ross and Archer. Based upon the chart above, a once-in-a-lifetime rotation haul from all low picks, except for one thing…every one of them got creamed in late September and I got crushed in the playoffs. SPs are drafted to keep you in contention in the first half, odds are you will need fresh arms for the stretch drive.
I know it’s too much faith to put into it (and it’s influenced by my homer-ism), but if Eduardo Rodriguez can figure out how to not tip his pitches, he could be a pretty solid sleeper (he ranks in at a -0.58).
58% of his ER came from 4 of his 21 starts.
Is there a way to pull a list of which pitchers had the most starts with giving up 2 or less runs? Ed-Rod had 15 of them last year.
What would ventura’s score look like if you just looked at second half of the year? Seems to me he turned things around meaningfully….
THANKS!
bbboston! i remember you often from my old site, rotobanter. hope alls well!
good question. id put him and gausman’s stuff on the same scale, but i do think ventura is more likely to put up jose quintana numbers despite having better stuff.
Dan,
I was stunned that you remembered me…it was a while ago. Not sure if you remember, but we both loved Salazar back then….guy has turned out as expected. My new SP crush is Severino, who somewhat reminds me of Salazar. I really believe he has even more than what he showed last season. He didn’t use his plus change much last year, but I expect once he mixes that in more his plus-plus FB becomes untouchable. That pitch totally explodes on batters. Look at his minor league stats…beyond impressive. My only concern is that he’s moved up too fast.
What do you think about him?
hope alls well right back at ya! agree that he’s a stud. might be getting overdrafted though based on his ADP.
I loved that site and think your work is awesome! Thanks de the quick response!
how the (bleep) is syndergaard not on here?
Look at the graph, he’s in there… 10th right between JFernandez and Stasburg.
because you didnt look at the top 10.
? He’s in some pretty damn good company.
Y’all beat me
Ranked (bleeping) 10 according to this…
For some reason the first player who came to mind when I read the title of the article was Carlos Rodon. Where do you think he will end up compared to these guys?
i think his verlander-to-quintana grouping above is rational…okay ERA with tons of K’s but WHIP isn’t ideal.
Just want to point out that Lance McCullers has double the walk rate of Iwakuma. And he walked a lot more guys in the minors last year. I worry that opposing hitters will squeeze him a lot more this coming season.
I don’t agree whatsoever with this article. I’m a hardcore pitching statistics researcher. I’ve spent years seeing how minor league stats translate to the majors. Raisel Iglesias is NO good. He is perhaps one of the worst pitchers on the board based on everything he’s ever done in the past. His career walk rate is atrocious. His home park is a hitter’s heaven. His 2015 stats in 90 innings don’t exactly reflect what he did in his past against low level competition. To expect another 90 innings like that from a future long reliever is wishful thinking. Harvey and Pineda should not be mentioned in the same sentence with Iglesias or each other. Severino is going to be a million times the pitcher Yordano Ventura is. Way better than Richards and a zillion times better than Gio. Severino should be getting the treatment you give Iglesias. McCullers is NOTHING like Iwakuma. He’ll be a fine pitcher but Iwakuma has excellent command whereas McCullers does not. McCullers only compares to Hamels after he had his worst ever season. He does not compare to Harvey WHATSOEVER. And you can take Eickhoff 100 picks after Nola. Nola could be your next Grienke..A quick study of both men’s careers show the exact same sort of trajectory.
don’t bring me down,,, BRUUUCCCEE
I didn’t know hardcore researchers could just use terms like like “zillion times”, I need to lay off the facts and get on the adjective train!
Took Eickhoff exactly 109 pix later in round 24 of my NFBC league. Happily.
While I wont rachet it up to Bruce levels, I too disagree with the lack of Nola love. I’d love to hear more on your interpretation of early stats and peripherals that sound alarm bells so loudly.
And now…I go Bruce on you. AS AN MIT PHD IN PITCHING MECHANICS AND THERMALDYNAMICS I HAVE TO SAY YOUR ARTICLE AND ASSESEMENTS ARE PURE GARBAGE AND JUVINILE AT BEST.
Wow, that kind of felt good. Now I see the pleasure in trolling.
I learned one thing last year paying alot of attention to ADP and doing mock draft can really screw u up.guys are never where u expect them once real draft begins and the most important picks in your draft are those last picks after rd15 that is we’re u win ur league last year I got Pollock in rd 17 keuchel in rd 19 and kendrys Morales as my last pick in draft and those 3 players help me finish 3rd I’m my win.but injuries killed any chance I had at winning lost Nathan,Stanton,Springer,messeraco,sober and Tex I took a pounding but this year I drafting a doctor with my team 🙂
Maybe you just aren’t gleaning the knowledge you should be from mock drafting? Studying where those late round players fall is almost exactly the purpose.