Where to Rank the Young Aces?

by
January 21, 2016

Let’s throw some hyped names into the equation. After each name, I listed their NESN NFBC Average Draft Position (ADP) as of 1.15.16 followed by where I have them ranked without a position adjustment according to Rotochamp composite projections (1.12.16):

Rotochamp and Steamer grounds our expectations. If you adhere to their projections/these rankings, you might not land Severino, Ross or Nola. ADP on the other hand will make you reach at times. Eno provided a KPU-BB leaderboard (K% + Pop-up% – BB%) this past Tuesday. Here is another approach to ranking starters in addition to our Pitch Repertoire Scores.

Look to their peripherals and rank them by skills. Here is one subjective approach. I z-score the following skills and weigh each one by it’s correlation to expected ERA):

  • zGB/FB+zIFFB%
  • Average z-score between Ct% and SwStr%
  • zK-BB%
  • Average z-score between Soft% and Hard%

Summing up these four z-scores, we’re left with the following leader board (50 IP Qualifier):

We have some good references. Just keep in mind “luck stats” highlighted in light red (ERA vs. expected ERA; Left on Base% and Homer-to-fly ratio).

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Raisel Iglesias is good. Top 20 good — just above Michael Pineda and Matt Harvey using this approach. If he could leave more batters on base, he would have been Drew Smyly good. Other than overall command (K-BB%), Iglesias was better accross the board. In fact, he was Zack Greinke good outside of the LOB and HR/FB rates.

When you think of 2015 Joe Ross, think of 2015 James Shields whose going 60+ picks early on average.

Luis Severino compares well to Garrett Richards as well as Yordano Ventura and Gio Gonzalez, however Severino had a better effect than the latter two on hitters’ balls in play. Richards has better swing-and-miss stuff, but Severino had better overall command.

Hisashi Iwakuma is a good comp for Lance McCullers. McCullers was slightly luckier (3.22 ERA vs. 3.54 expected ERA), but McCullers will accumulate as much value from his strikeout rate, which compares to Matt Harvey, Cole Hamels and Carlos Martinez (less swing-and-miss stuff compared to these three though).

Aaron Nola…Give me Jerad Eickhoff 100 picks later.

This matrix can also help you with solid deep options:

…As well as hyped names from the recent past:





 

Daniel Schwartz contributes for RotoGraphs when he's not selling industry leading thermal packaging. You can follow him on twitter @RotoBanter

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al
9 years ago

This is a heck of a conundrum. Last year i dealt very cheap Arrietta and Carrasco for more expensive and shorter to keep Lester and Cueto….I was pretty happy with the deals, but clearly they didnt work out….

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