Where Saves Are Coming From?

With a few jobs recently influx (HOU, PHI, STL, TB, NYM, and now BAL w/Zach Britton returning), I figured I’d take a look at where the saves have come from so far. Remember when Kenley Jansen was scary? After allowing six runs through his first seven outings, he has allowed five (three earned) in 23 innings since with 24 strikeouts. Jansen, Craig Kimbrel, and Aroldis Chapman have completely held up their end of the bargain as early closers, but things really branch out from there. Using the NFBC average draft position data (15-team, 30-round drafts), here’s a look at the breakdown:

A lot of drafters wanted to avoid the elite tier and live in that round 6-10 range, which has paid off handsomely. The biggest flop has been Roberto Osuna and that’s because of his off field behavior, which has yet to be adjudicated. The top three RPs on ESPN’s Player Rater have come from this group in Edwin Diaz (20 SVs), Sean Doolittle (16), and Brad Hand (18) with Kimbrel (20) and Chapman (17) sitting fourth and fifth.

There has been some volatility in that tier with Alex Colome (12 SVs, 4.23 ERA) getting shipped to setup Diaz in Seattle, Felipe Vazquez (11 SVs, 4.21 ERA) hitting a few bumps in the road, and Hector Neris (9 SVs, 5.01 ERA) opening the door for Seranthony Dominguez (2 SVs, 1.50 ERA). Colome’s left a black hole in Tampa Bay, Vazquez is pushing through his troubles, and Dominguez might actually be better than Neris anyway.

The next tier has been rather fruitful as well with Brandon Morrow, Jeurys Familia, and Blake Treinen all 11th-round picks with 15 saves so far. The 11-15 round range was hit-or-miss as they either have 10+ saves already (Morrow, Familia, and Treinen are joined by Kelvin Herrera, Brad Brach, Fernando Rodney, and Shane Greene) or nothing at all (Mark Melancon, Archie Bradley, Greg Holland, and Andrew Miller* have a combined three saves).

*I’m not really counting Miller as a negative for saves as everyone drafts him for strikeouts and ratios, but he’s been a flop there, too (4.40 ERA, 1.60 WHIP, 23 Ks in 14.3 IP).

The late round gems include Brad Boxberger in the 21st round (14 SVs), Josh Hader also in the 21st (only 6 SVs, but insanely elite ratios and strikeouts), Joakim Soria in the 22nd round (8 SVs and now seemingly locked in with four straight saves), and Keone Kela in the 23rd (14 SVs). The two waiver gems to this point are actually both looking over their shoulder at this point.

Bud Norris (12 SVs) has allowed runs in four of his last seven outings while Jordan Hicks has started to command his electric stuff (37% K, 7% BB), including a three-strikeout save on Saturday. Meanwhile, Hunter Strickland (12 SVs) has done a fine job in Melancon’s stead, but any hiccups at this point could re-open the door for Melancon.

Let’s finish up with a fresh ranking of the reliever pool with saves and holds consideration. I’ve identified which stat the pitcher is most likely to net so you can sort and chop off the holds guys if you play in standard 5x5s, though I will say that decent handful of the holds-first guys are worth having over some of the lower end closers, especially if you already have an ace closer from the top 7-10. Hader is no doubt the most prevalent and will be treated as such, but don’t sleep on Archie Bradley, Chris Devenski, Adam Ottavino, and Seranthony Dominguez even in saves-only leagues.

I might not have listed every holds gem, but there are massive talent clusters and I had to cut it off somewhere. That somewhere for me was with 65.