What To Do About Roy Oswalt
We’re deep in the heart of Roy Oswalt Watch 2012, which is not quite a hullabaloo but is slowly ratcheting up the volume and frequency. Now the rumor is that he’ll go to the Rangers. Should he picked up in all leagues right now?
First, the obvious answer is that the deeper your league, the more likely it will make sense to pick him up. Before we go negative on Oswalt, he’s only 34 years old and he’s been very useful the last two years in the league. He’ll still throw over 90 and he’ll still have his slider and curveball, and he’ll still show great control in all likelihood. That takes a pitcher pretty far in deep leagues.
But how about your typical twelve-teamer? Then it gets a little murky, especially if he ends up in Texas.
Pick a stat, any stat, and Oswalt is in decline there. Velocity — down to 91.4 MPH from 93.7 in 2002. Strikeout rate — down to 6.02 per nine last year from an average just over seven. Swinging strikes — down to 8.0% and significantly below average for the second time in his career. Ground-ball rate — down to 45.1% from an average of 47.3%. FanGraphs provides a fan-tastic graph for the one stat whose decline is the most obvious:
One thing you’ll notice is that Oswalt’s xFIP (3.95) and SIERA (4.04) were worse than his 3.44 FIP in 2011. Both normalize home run rates to some degree, and Oswalt’s 6.3% home runs per fly ball last year was the lowest of his career. That number normalizes to 9-10% every year across baseball, and there’s no research that indicates that a pitcher can control it. His career number is 8.8%. He could expect an ERA much closer to four based on that statistic alone.
If the latest rumor is true, and Oswalt is headed for Texas, the damage could be worse. Our park factors have the Rangers’ park augmenting home runs by 9% (11% for lefties, 7% for righties). That should help push the home-run-per-fly-ball needle back to league average.
Not only will the park be harder on the pitcher, but so will the league. Various studies have found that the move from the National League to the American League can cost a pitcher half a strikeout per nine, or as much as 10% in ERA+. Oswalt had a 96 ERA+ last year and was exactly at league average in 2009. His strikeout rate was a full strikeout per nine below league average last year. Neither of those numbers can afford a healthy ding.
Back to our original caveat, those desperate for pitching in leagues of depth can reach for the free agent. He is certainly a skilled pitcher and will have some great matchups along the way. But for those of you in standard mixed leagues, Oswalt will have to ride your bench with the Yankees and Red Sox come to Texas — don’t stash him now if you can’t sit him much, or if your league is stream-friendly.
With a phone full of pictures of pitchers' fingers, strange beers, and his two toddler sons, Eno Sarris can be found at the ballpark or a brewery most days. Read him here, writing about the A's or Giants at The Athletic, or about beer at October. Follow him on Twitter @enosarris if you can handle the sandwiches and inanity.
(1) While Arlington has a park factor of 109, Philadelphia has a park factor of 104, so the gap isn’t that big.
(2) Texas plays NY or Boston 10 times from June 28 to the end of the season. Texas has 42 games against the worst offenses in the league during that span: Oakland, Seattle, Kansas City and Minnesota and another 34 against Los Angeles, Toronto, Detroit, Baltimore, Tampa Bay and Cleveland, only two of which play in hitters’ parks. The need to spot-start Oswalt may be less than you suggest.
(3) Oswalt wouldn’t have to pitch against the best offense in the league.
(5) Oswalt would be backed by a very-good fielding infield and a deep bullpen not prone to blow his wins.
1) The full range of PFs is only 22, so a difference of five seems like a big deal to me.
2) KC isn’t a patsy and the AL is, generally tougher. I’d be nervous to start him against NYY, BOS, TAM, DET, TOR at home, too.
3) Good point but tough to quantify exactly.
5) Sure, but mostly only one cat – wins – since unearned runs don’t go into ERA/WHIP. Some issues with longer innings, I guess.
hey rotofan, how’d that bitch slap feel?
hey! he had some good points. Overall, though, it’s not a good sign when a guy sits out the beginning of the season and can’t seem to get the contract he wants, plus the degenerative back problem, and the switch to the other league…
(1) A difference of 5 means the park factor in Texas is 5% greater than in Philadelphia. Since half of games are on the road, one would expect Oswalt home run rate to go up 2.5%. And 102.5% of 6.3% is 6.4575%. Assuming 100 fly balls (which is about right given the number of innings pitched and his historic FB rate) we’d be looking at 1 additional home run for every 1,000 fly balls. The other factor you hint at, regression to his career norm HR rate, appears likely to be a bigger factor, though even there, we’re talking about 2 or 3 more home runs over 100 fly balls.
(2) Kansas City is next to last in runs scored, edging out Oakland and averaging fewer than 4 runs a game.
(3) Certainly the AL is generally tougher on rate pitching stats because of the DH.
(4) Tampa and Detroit are pitchers’ parks. Both have had league average offenses (just worse than average, actually). Tampa has struggled with the loss of Longoria and Detroit has quite a few lineup holes notwithstanding Cabrera/Prince. I’m in a deep A.L. league and certainly haven’t kept my pitchers on the bench when they start in those two parks.
(5) The point about infield defense also goes to range – the Rangers will get to more balls than most teams, balls that would be deemed hits elsewhere, so it affects ERA too.
I wouldn’t used runs scored to judge offenses so far. by wRC+ the offenses I named are all above-average or better. The bad offenses he’d face in the NL are worse than the bad offenses he’d face in the AL, which is why there’s the 10% conversion factor.
I wouldn’t use last year’s home run rate as an indicator, because of sampling issues and the fact that the stat doesn’t stabilize in any one given year, but does so over a career. I’d probably take those numbers and apply them to his career rate and predict a 9+% HR/FB rate, which is a big difference from 6.3%.
The Rangers BABIP allowed this year is .268. The Phillies’ was .286 last year. So there’s some merit to that argument.
I think we’re use the same metric for HR/FB rate. Butthe difference between a 9% and 6.3% Hr/FB over 100 fly balls is 2.7 more home runs — which is why I wrote 2 or 3 more home tuns.
Oswalt no doubt carries some risk: His age suggests regression, his health isn’t entirely clear, he is moving to a tougher league for pitchers and Arlington is a tough park to suppress runs. I already have him on my roster because I’m playing in a 12-team AL only league with 17-man reserves plus a 23-man active roster — I picked him up for my reserve in March thinking most of the deeper-pocket teams who would need pitching are in the A.L. For a 12-team mixed league, he’s a much closer call.
In any case, I enjoyed our exchange.
Slow…clap…for two intelligent people having an reasonable discussion while disagreeing with each other. I think you might have broken the internet.