What Happened To Carlos Gomez?

I think we all know what happened to Carlos Gomez. He was hurt. If the frequent injury updates didn’t convince you, just look at the Mets who walked away from an all-but-executed trade.

Gomez also looked miserable when he was supposedly healthy too. He had his worst season since 2011 – a .255/.311/.409 slash, 12 home runs, 17 stolen bases, 61 runs and 56 RBI. Entering his age 30 season, can Gomez rebound?

This is my second consecutive year profiling Gomez, and he’s coming off a very different season this time around. When I wrote about him last winter, the talking points were his monstrous five category production, early count aggression, high-ish BABIP, and violent swings.

His plate discipline is still unapologetically aggressive. However, his power declined for a third straight season. In the past, Gomez was known as a lefty masher. That was true in 2014 too even though a high BABIP against righties hid the fact. Last season, a .236 BABIP and .129 ISO versus southpaws dragged down his overall numbers. His walk and strikeout rates remained strong versus lefties.

We expected the BABIP regression, but perhaps we’re looking at an over-correction. The previously referenced BABIP versus lefties in about 100 plate appearances supports the hypothesis. Gomez’s line drive rate fell below 20 percent (usually around 21 percent). In 2014, he balanced a high infield fly rate with a high infield hit rate. The flies remained in 2015 but the infield hits deserted him. That could be related to injury.

I also guessed that his high BABIP was related to a high hard hit rate. At the time, FanGraphs didn’t have contact quality data. Now I can go back and verify my theory. During his 2012 through 2014 peak, Gomez posted a roughly 35 percent hard hit rate with about 15 percent soft hit contact. Those aren’t Stantonian splits, but he definitely outperformed the average hitter by a wide margin. Overall, I expect a small increase in his BABIP – perhaps to about .315.

For once, Steamer projects positive regression. A 77/19/70/24/.257 line is a steep departure from his peak, but it’s an improvement on his 2015 campaign. At this point in the offseason, it’s difficult to speculate about his draft position.

He may be entering the Curtis Granderson phase of his career. Granderson has played five seasons since turning 30. He has posted the following WAR per season:

2011: 6.8 WAR
2012: 2.7 WAR
2013: 1.6 WAR
2014: 1.2 WAR
2015: 5.1 WAR

I expect similar inconsistency from Gomez over the next few seasons.

The Astros have a potent lineup, and it will be up to Gomez where he bats in the order. Jose Altuve will leadoff, so Gomez won’t return to his past role. That’s fine, he was always a better fantasy asset in the middle of the order.

Carlos Correa and George Springer will probably bat second, third, or fourth. A resurgent Gomez would claim one of those spots too. If he’s hitting like last season, he’ll find himself batting between fifth and eighth.

This all makes Gomez a very high risk, high reward draft target. The marketplace isn’t about to give up on him after one mediocre season. He has a high floor – he still posted $9 of value in 2015. A hot hitting, middle of the order Gomez is a top 20 fantasy player. A cooler, bottom of the order Gomez is merely a modest core performer.

***The present author appreciates your comments. However, he is currently in Vietnam without a computer or internet access. The above article was written in late-November/early-December in order to satisfy his future writing requirements. No matter what you say, he will not respond to you before early January. Apologies if some recent information has not been incorporated.***





You can follow me on twitter @BaseballATeam

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Major League Baseball
8 years ago

I want to join a blogging community. Are you a member of one?