Weeks Walloping Pitchers in ’09

As former RotoGraphs scribe Peter Bendix noted this past offseason, Brewers second baseman Rickie Weeks has been breaking baseball hearts for years. The 2nd overall pick out of Southern University back in 2003, Weeks crushed minor league pitching to the tune of .289/.387/.493, including a gargantuan 2005 season at AAA Nashville (.320/.435/.655) that earned him a spot in the big leagues that June. A powerfully built right-handed hitter with a Sheffield-like bat waggle and quick wrists, Weeks looked like he should have hit the ground running.

That 2005 big league campaign wasn’t awe-inspiring (.328 wOBA, .239/.333/.394), but Weeks drew walks at a 10% clip as a 22 year-old, while posting a respectable .156 ISO. His 2006 season (interrupted by a wrist injury) looked superficially better (.344 wOBA), but his .279/.363/.404 line was mostly the product of a .355 BABIP (.291 in 2005). In terms of working the count (7.7 BB%) and hitting for power (.125 ISO), the second baseman actually took a step back.

Then came an exciting 2007 season which again conjured up hope that Weeks would make good on his star prospect status. Although he again dealt with a wrist malady (and was actually optioned to the minors in early August), his wOBA climbed to .365. Weeks drew a free pass a robust 16% of the time with a .189 ISO, leading to a .235/.374/.433 showing. He absolutely clobbered the ball in the second half of the season, with a .903 OPS (.720 in the first half).

So, the stage was set for Weeks to bust out. Except, he didn’t. He wasn’t bad, mind you, with a near league-average wOBA of .334. He still worked the count well (12.2 BB%), but he didn’t show quite as much pop (.164 ISO). His Line Drive% was just 15.1. Injuries continued to bother Weeks as well (a sore left knee and a left thumb this time). Combine the mildly disappointing lumber with an improved-but-still-iron glove and a tendency to get nicked up, and Weeks was beginning to look like just another guy.

In 2009, however, the 26 year-old is finally thumping opposing pitchers like many scouts projected. With 9 dingers and a .257 ISO in 153 PA, Weeks has a .377 wOBA that ranks 8th among second basemen. The 5-11, 210 pounder has been a little more aggressive in ’09, chasing 23.4% of pitches thrown outside of the strike zone (19.6% career average). His walk rate (6.7%) and P/PA (3.8 in ’09, compared to 4.2 in 2007 and 4.1 in 2008) also reflect a less restrained approach. Weeks is also lofting the ball more often (43.8 FB%, 37.1 career average) and his line drive rate has rebounded (19%). His K rate, always rather lofty, is largely unchanged (25% in ’09, 26.2% career).

Weeks’ BABIP (.323) is perhaps a little higher than one might anticipate, but his power stroke should be here to stay. When not hampered with hand injuries, Weeks has shown the ability to drive the ball. The updated ZiPS projections on our player pages (which blend preseason projections with early-season performances) show Weeks posting a .262/.353/.462 line, good for a .360 wOBA. That checks in as the 8th-best forecast among second baseman. We’ve waited on Weeks for years, but perhaps that patience will finally be rewarded.