Weekly Starter Rankings (9/21 to 9/27)
Well, I have had making a two-start evaluator on my to-do list for a while. With the help of Jonah Pemstein, the project is done. A problem is its usefulness with only two weeks left in the season. I am going to roll it out anyway and take comments over the next couple of weeks. It will then be ready for full implementation to start next season.
The setup is pretty simple right now.
•Find the games a pitcher is expected to start this upcoming week.
• Determine the starters projected Steamer stats per start.
• Use my Standing Gain Points formula I calculated to start the season to give each pitcher a weekly value. Then rank them by this value.
This is all the data available for now, but running it for the first time I found a few ways to improve it going forward.
• I ran into a coding error for pitchers who have no more projected starts (end of the list like Hudson or Moore) according to Steamer. I am trying to get the depth charts updated to make sure this doesn’t happen in the future.
• On the same note, the stats for pitchers who are swingman (starter and reliever) may be a bit inflated because of the improved reliever rates.
• Wins are just funky but needed to show the value of the chance to pick up two Wins. Ideas?
• The strength of opponent and park factors are not shown or worked in yet. I am working on this portion now but wanted to make the list available before next week.
With the limitations, here are the starting pitchers ranked by the projected stats for this upcoming week for 12 team leagues with five pitching categories.
| NAME | StartDates | Wins | Ks | ERA | WHIP | IP | TotalValue |
| David Price | 09-27 (H),09-21 (H) | 0.7 | 13.3 | 2.97 | 1.08 | 12.7 | 1.36 |
| Hisashi Iwakuma | 09-27 (A),09-22 (A) | 1.0 | 12.0 | 3.43 | 1.17 | 15 | 1.29 |
| Jaime Garcia | 09-21 (H),09-26 (H) | 1.0 | 12.0 | 3.33 | 1.23 | 14 | 1.18 |
| Matt Harvey | 09-27 (A) | 1.0 | 9.0 | 3.14 | 1.11 | 9 | 1.16 |
| Chris Archer | 09-21 (A),09-26 (A) | 0.7 | 12.7 | 3.22 | 1.16 | 11.3 | 1.16 |
| Jacob deGrom | 09-26 (A),09-21 (H) | 0.7 | 11.3 | 3.16 | 1.13 | 11.3 | 1.15 |
| Danny Salazar | 09-22 (A),09-27 (A) | 0.7 | 12.0 | 3.41 | 1.17 | 11.3 | 1.13 |
| Clayton Kershaw | 09-24 (H) | 0.7 | 8.3 | 2.10 | 0.96 | 7 | 1.12 |
| Gio Gonzalez | 09-27 (H),09-21 (H) | 1.0 | 13.0 | 3.67 | 1.28 | 14 | 1.09 |
| Chris Heston | 09-22 (A),09-27 (A) | 1.0 | 11.0 | 3.71 | 1.30 | 13 | 1.05 |
| Jose Fernandez | 09-25 (H) | 0.5 | 9.0 | 2.74 | 1.08 | 7.5 | 1.03 |
| Dallas Keuchel | 09-27 (H),09-21 (H) | 0.7 | 10.0 | 3.06 | 1.20 | 11.3 | 1.03 |
| John Lamb | 09-26 (H),09-21 (A) | 1.0 | 10.0 | 3.89 | 1.28 | 10 | 1.00 |
| Luis Severino | 09-27 (H),09-22 (A) | 1.0 | 11.0 | 3.97 | 1.29 | 13 | 1.00 |
| Robbie Ray | 09-22 (A),09-27 (A) | 1.0 | 11.0 | 4.10 | 1.35 | 12 | 0.97 |
| Stephen Strasburg | 09-26 (H) | 0.5 | 8.0 | 2.94 | 1.07 | 7 | 0.89 |
| Jason Hammel | 09-27 (H),09-21 (H) | 0.7 | 9.3 | 3.75 | 1.20 | 10 | 0.89 |
| Chris Sale | 09-23 (A) | 0.3 | 8.0 | 2.70 | 1.01 | 6.7 | 0.86 |
| John Lackey | 09-22 (H),09-27 (H) | 0.7 | 9.3 | 3.73 | 1.23 | 11.3 | 0.84 |
| Jeff Samardzija | 09-21 (A),09-26 (A) | 0.7 | 10.0 | 4.13 | 1.26 | 12 | 0.77 |
| Brett Anderson | 09-26 (A),09-21 (H) | 0.7 | 8.0 | 3.55 | 1.32 | 10.7 | 0.75 |
| Felix Hernandez | 09-25 (A) | 0.5 | 7.5 | 3.10 | 1.13 | 7.5 | 0.75 |
| Max Scherzer | 09-23 (H) | 0.3 | 6.7 | 2.71 | 1.02 | 5.7 | 0.73 |
| Alex Wood | 09-22 (H),09-27 (A) | 0.7 | 9.3 | 3.87 | 1.30 | 12 | 0.73 |
| Shelby Miller | 09-27 (A),09-21 (A) | 0.7 | 9.3 | 3.94 | 1.31 | 10.7 | 0.73 |
| Corey Kluber | 09-23 (A) | 0.3 | 7.0 | 3.01 | 1.08 | 6.7 | 0.70 |
| Zack Greinke | 09-23 (H) | 0.3 | 6.0 | 2.99 | 1.11 | 6.3 | 0.64 |
| Carlos Martinez | 09-25 (H) | 0.5 | 7.0 | 3.50 | 1.26 | 7 | 0.64 |
| Madison Bumgarner | 09-24 (A) | 0.3 | 6.3 | 2.77 | 1.07 | 6 | 0.64 |
| Drew Smyly | 09-23 (A) | 0.5 | 6.0 | 3.36 | 1.19 | 6 | 0.63 |
| Scott Kazmir | 09-25 (H) | 0.5 | 6.5 | 3.82 | 1.24 | 7.5 | 0.63 |
| Eduardo Rodriguez | 09-26 (H),09-21 (H) | 0.7 | 9.3 | 3.97 | 1.32 | 11.3 | 0.62 |
| Vidal Nuno | 09-26 (A) | 0.3 | 8.0 | 3.91 | 1.25 | 10 | 0.62 |
| Aaron Harang | 09-27 (A),09-22 (A) | 1.0 | 10.0 | 4.49 | 1.37 | 14 | 0.61 |
| Carlos Carrasco | 09-25 (A) | 0.3 | 6.3 | 3.10 | 1.12 | 6 | 0.61 |
| Henry Owens | 09-27 (H),09-22 (H) | 1.0 | 10.0 | 4.52 | 1.45 | 12 | 0.60 |
| Jon Lester | 09-26 (H) | 0.3 | 5.7 | 3.21 | 1.15 | 5.7 | 0.58 |
| Rick Porcello | 09-23 (H) | 0.5 | 5.5 | 3.89 | 1.27 | 7.5 | 0.58 |
| Carlos Rodon | 09-24 (A) | 0.5 | 7.0 | 3.90 | 1.33 | 7 | 0.57 |
| Masahiro Tanaka | 09-23 (A) | 0.3 | 6.0 | 3.22 | 1.12 | 6.3 | 0.57 |
| Cody Martin | 09-22 (H),09-27 (H) | 1.0 | 9.0 | 4.58 | 1.43 | 11 | 0.56 |
| Jake Arrieta | 09-22 (H) | 0.3 | 6.0 | 3.08 | 1.14 | 5.7 | 0.56 |
| Noah Syndergaard | 09-25 (A) | 0.3 | 5.7 | 3.21 | 1.13 | 5.3 | 0.55 |
| Lance McCullers | 09-22 (H) | 0.5 | 5.0 | 3.92 | 1.33 | 5 | 0.55 |
| Adam Warren | 09-26 (H),09-21 (A) | 0.8 | 9.0 | 4.10 | 1.32 | 11 | 0.54 |
| Martin Perez | 09-22 (A),09-27 (A) | 0.7 | 6.7 | 4.20 | 1.39 | 10 | 0.54 |
| Francisco Liriano | 09-26 (A) | 0.3 | 6.0 | 3.34 | 1.24 | 5.7 | 0.53 |
| Anthony DeSclafani | 09-25 (H) | 0.5 | 6.0 | 4.16 | 1.29 | 7.5 | 0.53 |
| A.J. Burnett | 09-21 (A),09-27 (A) | 0.0 | 12.0 | 3.89 | 1.30 | 14 | 0.53 |
| Michael Pineda | 09-24 (H) | 0.3 | 5.0 | 3.36 | 1.12 | 5.3 | 0.52 |
| Collin McHugh | 09-26 (H) | 0.5 | 6.0 | 3.81 | 1.24 | 7 | 0.52 |
| Josh Tomlin | 09-26 (A) | 0.5 | 6.0 | 3.80 | 1.19 | 7 | 0.52 |
| Mike Bolsinger | 09-25 (A) | 0.2 | 7.5 | 3.62 | 1.27 | 8 | 0.52 |
| Gerrit Cole | 09-25 (A) | 0.3 | 5.7 | 3.26 | 1.16 | 5.7 | 0.52 |
| Tyson Ross | 09-22 (H) | 0.3 | 5.3 | 3.38 | 1.24 | 5.3 | 0.50 |
| Jered Weaver | 09-27 (H),09-21 (A) | 0.7 | 6.7 | 4.38 | 1.32 | 10.7 | 0.50 |
| Ubaldo Jimenez | 09-27 (A),09-21 (A) | 0.7 | 8.0 | 4.33 | 1.38 | 9.3 | 0.50 |
| Cole Hamels | 09-25 (A) | 0.3 | 5.7 | 3.67 | 1.21 | 6 | 0.49 |
| Jordan Zimmermann | 09-25 (H) | 0.3 | 4.3 | 3.42 | 1.17 | 5.3 | 0.48 |
| Steven Matz | 09-24 (A) | 0.5 | 4.5 | 3.64 | 1.26 | 4.5 | 0.48 |
| Tommy Milone | 09-24 (H) | 0.5 | 5.0 | 4.02 | 1.29 | 6.5 | 0.48 |
| James Shields | 09-27 (H) | 0.3 | 5.3 | 3.52 | 1.21 | 5.3 | 0.47 |
| Mike Fiers | 09-23 (H) | 0.5 | 6.0 | 3.52 | 1.19 | 6 | 0.47 |
| Wily Peralta | 09-26 (A),09-21 (A) | 0.7 | 7.3 | 4.44 | 1.41 | 10.7 | 0.47 |
| Matt Boyd | 09-25 (H) | 0.5 | 4.0 | 4.17 | 1.30 | 5.5 | 0.46 |
| Ian Kennedy | 09-24 (H) | 0.3 | 5.0 | 3.69 | 1.22 | 5 | 0.46 |
| Johnny Cueto | 09-24 (H) | 0.3 | 5.0 | 3.59 | 1.21 | 6 | 0.46 |
| Michael Wacha | 09-24 (H) | 0.3 | 5.0 | 3.56 | 1.23 | 5.3 | 0.46 |
| Justin Verlander | 09-23 (H) | 0.3 | 5.3 | 3.67 | 1.23 | 6.3 | 0.46 |
| Jose Quintana | 09-22 (A) | 0.3 | 4.7 | 3.59 | 1.21 | 5.7 | 0.45 |
| CC Sabathia | 09-25 (H) | 0.5 | 4.5 | 4.03 | 1.27 | 5.5 | 0.44 |
| Phil Hughes | 09-22 (H) | 0.5 | 5.0 | 4.11 | 1.23 | 7 | 0.44 |
| Garrett Richards | 09-25 (H) | 0.3 | 5.0 | 3.70 | 1.29 | 6 | 0.43 |
| Dan Haren | 09-25 (H) | 0.5 | 5.0 | 4.25 | 1.27 | 6.5 | 0.43 |
| Andrew Cashner | 09-23 (H) | 0.3 | 4.3 | 3.70 | 1.25 | 5.3 | 0.42 |
| Sonny Gray | 09-25 (H) | 0.3 | 4.7 | 3.68 | 1.29 | 5.7 | 0.42 |
| Kevin Gausman | 09-26 (A) | 0.2 | 5.5 | 3.75 | 1.24 | 6.5 | 0.42 |
| Matt Shoemaker | 09-26 (H) | 0.5 | 5.5 | 3.84 | 1.22 | 6.5 | 0.42 |
| Lance Lynn | 09-23 (H) | 0.3 | 4.7 | 3.73 | 1.28 | 5 | 0.41 |
| J.A. Happ | 09-22 (A) | 0.5 | 4.0 | 3.59 | 1.25 | 4.5 | 0.41 |
| Jake Odorizzi | 09-25 (A) | 0.3 | 5.0 | 3.70 | 1.23 | 5.3 | 0.41 |
| Yordano Ventura | 09-23 (H) | 0.3 | 5.0 | 3.73 | 1.29 | 5.3 | 0.41 |
| Roenis Elias | 09-23 (A) | 0.3 | 5.5 | 4.04 | 1.31 | 7 | 0.41 |
| Charlie Morton | 09-23 (A) | 0.5 | 4.5 | 3.91 | 1.35 | 6.5 | 0.40 |
| Kris Medlen | 09-26 (H) | 0.5 | 4.5 | 4.06 | 1.30 | 6.5 | 0.40 |
| Wei-Yin Chen | 09-25 (A) | 0.3 | 4.3 | 3.87 | 1.22 | 5.7 | 0.40 |
| Felix Doubront | 09-24 (H) | 0.5 | 4.5 | 4.29 | 1.38 | 5.5 | 0.40 |
| Colby Lewis | 09-23 (A) | 0.5 | 5.0 | 4.52 | 1.32 | 7 | 0.40 |
| Julio Teheran | 09-26 (A) | 0.3 | 4.7 | 3.83 | 1.26 | 5.3 | 0.39 |
| Bartolo Colon | 09-23 (H) | 0.3 | 4.0 | 3.86 | 1.21 | 5.7 | 0.39 |
| Zachary Davies | 09-23 (A) | 0.5 | 5.0 | 4.45 | 1.42 | 6.5 | 0.38 |
| Jake Peavy | 09-23 (A) | 0.3 | 4.0 | 3.76 | 1.25 | 5 | 0.38 |
| Tom Koehler | 09-22 (H) | 0.5 | 5.5 | 4.34 | 1.40 | 7 | 0.38 |
| Patrick Corbin | 09-24 (A) | 0.3 | 4.3 | 3.46 | 1.20 | 4.7 | 0.37 |
| Alec Asher | 09-24 (A) | 0.5 | 4.5 | 4.39 | 1.34 | 6 | 0.37 |
| Jeff Locke | 09-24 (A) | 0.3 | 3.7 | 3.96 | 1.35 | 5 | 0.36 |
| Derek Holland | 09-26 (A) | 0.3 | 4.7 | 3.84 | 1.26 | 5.3 | 0.36 |
| Michael Lorenzen | 09-27 (H),09-22 (A) | 0.7 | 7.3 | 4.89 | 1.47 | 10 | 0.36 |
| Chase Anderson | 09-23 (A) | 0.3 | 4.0 | 4.05 | 1.29 | 4.7 | 0.36 |
| Kyle Hendricks | 09-23 (H) | 0.3 | 4.0 | 3.63 | 1.23 | 4.7 | 0.36 |
| Taylor Jungmann | 09-24 (A) | 0.5 | 6.0 | 4.59 | 1.42 | 7 | 0.36 |
| Mike Leake | 09-25 (A) | 0.3 | 4.0 | 3.68 | 1.27 | 5.7 | 0.36 |
| Daniel Norris | 09-22 (H) | 0.5 | 4.5 | 4.35 | 1.40 | 5.5 | 0.35 |
| Hector Santiago | 09-22 (A) | 0.3 | 4.3 | 4.11 | 1.33 | 5.3 | 0.35 |
| Chad Bettis | 09-24 (H) | 0.5 | 5.0 | 4.45 | 1.40 | 6 | 0.35 |
| James Paxton | 09-24 (A) | 0.5 | 3.5 | 4.14 | 1.38 | 4.5 | 0.34 |
| Jerad Eickhoff | 09-26 (A) | 0.0 | 6.0 | 4.15 | 1.32 | 8 | 0.34 |
| Tyler Duffey | 09-27 (A) | 0.5 | 4.0 | 4.15 | 1.32 | 5 | 0.33 |
| Jarred Cosart | 09-24 (H) | 0.5 | 4.5 | 4.22 | 1.46 | 6 | 0.32 |
| R.A. Dickey | 09-25 (H) | 0.3 | 4.3 | 4.29 | 1.34 | 6 | 0.32 |
| Jimmy Nelson | 09-27 (A) | 0.3 | 4.7 | 4.27 | 1.35 | 5.3 | 0.32 |
| Erik Johnson | 09-21 (A),09-27 (A) | 0.5 | 9.0 | 4.52 | 1.40 | 11 | 0.31 |
| Wade Miley | 09-24 (H) | 0.3 | 4.7 | 4.14 | 1.36 | 6 | 0.31 |
| Marco Estrada | 09-22 (H) | 0.3 | 4.0 | 4.49 | 1.33 | 5 | 0.30 |
| Erasmo Ramirez | 09-24 (A) | 0.3 | 4.0 | 4.06 | 1.29 | 5 | 0.30 |
| Yohan Flande | 09-25 (H) | 0.5 | 3.5 | 4.62 | 1.46 | 5.5 | 0.30 |
| Ervin Santana | 09-23 (H) | 0.3 | 4.3 | 4.26 | 1.34 | 5.7 | 0.29 |
| Jorge de la Rosa | 09-23 (H) | 0.3 | 4.3 | 4.27 | 1.38 | 5 | 0.29 |
| John Danks | 09-25 (A) | 0.5 | 4.5 | 4.62 | 1.37 | 6.5 | 0.29 |
| Kyle Gibson | 09-26 (A) | 0.3 | 3.7 | 4.10 | 1.38 | 5.3 | 0.28 |
| Adam Conley | 09-23 (H) | 0.5 | 5.5 | 3.90 | 1.34 | 6.5 | 0.28 |
| Jonathan Gray | 09-27 (H),09-21 (H) | 0.0 | 10.0 | 4.18 | 1.35 | 12 | 0.27 |
| Williams Perez | 09-23 (A) | 0.5 | 5.0 | 4.54 | 1.42 | 6.5 | 0.27 |
| Nicholas Tropeano | 09-23 (A) | 0.0 | 6.0 | 3.76 | 1.26 | 7 | 0.26 |
| Adam Morgan | 09-25 (A) | 0.5 | 4.0 | 4.91 | 1.41 | 6.5 | 0.26 |
| Cody Anderson | 09-24 (A) | 0.5 | 4.0 | 4.51 | 1.40 | 6.5 | 0.26 |
| Tanner Roark | 09-22 (H) | 0.5 | 5.5 | 3.90 | 1.27 | 7.5 | 0.26 |
| Aaron Brooks | 09-26 (H) | 0.3 | 3.0 | 4.30 | 1.31 | 4.7 | 0.26 |
| Edinson Volquez | 09-25 (H) | 0.3 | 3.7 | 4.51 | 1.40 | 5 | 0.26 |
| Mike Pelfrey | 09-25 (A) | 0.5 | 3.0 | 4.62 | 1.44 | 5.5 | 0.25 |
| Logan Verrett | 09-22 (H) | 0.0 | 4.0 | 3.91 | 1.26 | 5 | 0.24 |
| Yovani Gallardo | 09-24 (A) | 0.3 | 3.7 | 4.57 | 1.43 | 5.3 | 0.24 |
| Matthew Wisler | 09-22 (A) | 0.3 | 3.7 | 4.32 | 1.35 | 4.7 | 0.23 |
| Chris Tillman | 09-22 (A) | 0.3 | 4.0 | 4.33 | 1.36 | 5.3 | 0.22 |
| Jeremy Hellickson | 09-25 (A) | 0.0 | 6.0 | 4.13 | 1.28 | 8 | 0.20 |
| Jeremy Guthrie | 09-22 (H),09-27 (H) | 0.0 | 8.0 | 4.53 | 1.37 | 16 | 0.20 |
| Mark Buehrle | 09-26 (H) | 0.3 | 3.0 | 4.37 | 1.35 | 5.7 | 0.20 |
| Kyle Kendrick | 09-26 (H) | 0.3 | 3.0 | 5.02 | 1.46 | 5 | 0.18 |
| Alfredo Simon | 09-26 (H) | 0.3 | 3.3 | 4.75 | 1.43 | 5.3 | 0.11 |
| Brandon Finnegan | 09-23 (A) | 0.0 | 3.0 | 3.93 | 1.37 | 3 | 0.09 |
| David Buchanan | 09-23 (A) | 0.0 | 2.0 | 4.76 | 1.45 | 4 | 0.07 |
| Chris Rusin | 09-22 (H) | 0.0 | 5.0 | 4.62 | 1.44 | 8 | 0.06 |
| Brad Hand | 09-27 (H) | 0.0 | 3.5 | 4.30 | 1.41 | 5 | 0.06 |
| Justin Nicolino | 09-26 (H) | 0.0 | 4.0 | 4.55 | 1.39 | 8 | 0.01 |
| Randy Wolf | 09-21 (H),09-27 (H) | 0.0 | 10.0 | 4.47 | 1.37 | 14 | -0.04 |
| Tyler Wilson | 09-23 (A) | 0.0 | 2.0 | 4.64 | 1.39 | 3 | -0.10 |
| Tim Hudson | 09-26 (A) | 0.0 | \N | 3.57 | 1.26 | \N | \N |
| Matt Moore | 09-27 (A),09-22 (A) | \N | \N | 3.89 | 1.30 | \N | \N |
| Jhoulys Chacin | 09-26 (A),09-21 (A) | \N | \N | 4.32 | 1.38 | \N | \N |
| Jeremy Jeffress | 09-22 (A) | 0.0 | \N | 3.57 | 1.32 | \N | \N |
| Ariel Pena | 09-25 (A) | \N | \N | 4.61 | 1.48 | \N | \N |
| Sean Nolin | 09-23 (H) | \N | \N | 4.51 | 1.43 | \N | \N |
| Kyle Ryan | 09-21 (H) | \N | \N | 4.12 | 1.34 | \N | \N |
The value of two starts is seen with Robbie Ray being worth more than Stephen Strasburg on an average 12-team league. The extra strikeouts and chance for more Wins tips the scale. Now this late in the season, an owner may not be able to afford Ray’s ERA and WHIP so they may not use him.
So let me know what should be added, removed, or tweaked. One item we need to know is when you would want the data available. We are considering to run it on Sunday (better knowledge of rotations) night, but would it be more helpful on Friday. This is the time to suggest changes as I will already be working on some changes which I noted above. Thanks for your time and hopefully you will find this information helpful.
Jeff, one of the authors of the fantasy baseball guide,The Process, writes for RotoGraphs, The Hardball Times, Rotowire, Baseball America, and BaseballHQ. He has been nominated for two SABR Analytics Research Award for Contemporary Analysis and won it in 2013 in tandem with Bill Petti. He has won four FSWA Awards including on for his Mining the News series. He's won Tout Wars three times, LABR twice, and got his first NFBC Main Event win in 2021. Follow him on Twitter @jeffwzimmerman.
Very nice. I vote to post it on Sundays. The accuracy of their starts is more important than having advanced notice on Friday. Even today I find myself wondering how valuable deGrom will be this week now that he’s not a two-start pitcher anymore.
Is he a (viable) 1-start pitcher this week?
Yea, on the level of Scherzer’s ranking