Week 27 Mixed-League FAAB “Estimates”
Trying to estimate how much who FAAB bidding will go has been a humbling experience. While I’ll likely to break down the entire process during the offseason, it’s just one more bidding cycle. The only requirement this week is “spend it if you got it”. The dollars aren’t rolling over to next season.
My model was off for the past week as owners began taking my advice a week early. The number of bids jumped from the previous week (562 to 568) with the average bid just dropping from $6.7 to $6.5. My model projected a spending drop which effectively did not happen.
The final week could point to higher than expected bids with the average team holding $78. It’s tough to 100% know which teams are completely dead or will the owner come back and give a big F-you to the competing owners by taking the few streaming options.
One major issue I didn’t anticipate but should have was the dropping activity at CBSsportsline.com. While during the regular season, huge jumps in ownership existed, the largest jump this past week was a 5% change. The huge drop in additions really messed with my model. I’m not going to adjust the calculations with one week to go. The formula mainly places all movers in the $1 range.
With all the money leaving the active owners’ pockets, the following list are the “big” movers at CBSSportsline.
| Name | Initial Own% | Final Own% | Change% |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Borucki RP | TOR | 16% | 21% | 5% |
| Adam Wainwright SP | STL | 29% | 33% | 4% |
| Yoshihisa Hirano RP | ARI | 13% | 17% | 4% |
| James Shields SP | CHW | 17% | 19% | 2% |
| Peter O’Brien LF | MIA | 0% | 2% | 2% |
| Francisco Liriano RP | DET | 13% | 15% | 2% |
| Cody Reed RP | CIN | 4% | 5% | 1% |
| Omar Narvaez C | CHW | 10% | 11% | 1% |
| Robbie Grossman DH | MIN | 1% | 2% | 1% |
| Bryan Mitchell RP | SD | 2% | 3% | 1% |
| Ian Kennedy SP | KC | 9% | 10% | 1% |
| Nick Hundley C | SF | 15% | 16% | 1% |
| Liam Hendriks RP | OAK | 0% | 1% | 1% |
| Pat Neshek RP | PHI | 9% | 10% | 1% |
| Thomas Pannone P | TOR | 3% | 4% | 1% |
| Erik Kratz C | MIL | 0% | 1% | 1% |
| Daniel Norris SP | DET | 5% | 6% | 1% |
| Brett Anderson SP | OAK | 28% | 29% | 1% |
| Dylan Covey SP | CHW | 4% | 5% | 1% |
| Richard Rodriguez RP | PIT | 1% | 2% | 1% |
| Casey Kelly RP | SF | 0% | 1% | 1% |
| Brock Holt 2B | BOS | 2% | 3% | 1% |
| Lance Lynn SP | NYY | 64% | 65% | 1% |
| Aaron Altherr LF | PHI | 8% | 9% | 1% |
The results aren’t too surprising with a closer and a couple two-start pitchers in the top four. Part of the reason for so little movement may be a lack of decent options.
One player not on the list is Adam Conley. Conley seems to be Miami’s closer and those in a tight Saves race should pick him. The daily Bullpen Report has more information on the situation.
Good luck to all owners this next week and enjoy one more week of fishing until next season.
Jeff, one of the authors of the fantasy baseball guide,The Process, writes for RotoGraphs, The Hardball Times, Rotowire, Baseball America, and BaseballHQ. He has been nominated for two SABR Analytics Research Award for Contemporary Analysis and won it in 2013 in tandem with Bill Petti. He has won four FSWA Awards including on for his Mining the News series. He's won Tout Wars three times, LABR twice, and got his first NFBC Main Event win in 2021. Follow him on Twitter @jeffwzimmerman.