Week 25 Mixed-League FAAB Estimates
It’s going to be a tough week for owners looking for help. Few quality players became available this week and the available two-start starter is not any better. I will still try to give some FAAB estimates.
As usual, I use the NFBC Main Event (34 15-team mixed leagues, $1000 in FAAB) for the FAAB bids and CBSsportsline.com to estimate the weekly demand. First off, here are last week’s results.
Results from last week's FAAB projections for @thenfbc. I'm back to being a little high.
Name: Proj, Actual
Tyler White: $61, $43
Luke Voit: $19, $8
Luis Urias: $24, $11
Ramon Laureano: $16, $20
Billy McKinney: $14, $7
Jace Fry: $13, $9https://t.co/7SEVPNqmjk— Jeff Zimmerman (@jeffwzimmerman) September 7, 2018
Again, I’m a bit high on the estimates but after diving in a bit, I may need to learn a bit of coding this offseason to increase the accuracy. The curve is a backwards ‘S’ shape.
The shape is created by these three spending stages.
- Over the first two months, the spending was heavy every week. I think it stays high as owners who miss out on players in one week feel they have to spend up to get someone similar the next week.
- Spending steadily declines but owners stay active.
- Over the last couple of months, owners either quit or are out of money. With little spending, players can be picked up cheaply.
Right now, leagues are in that last stage with potential closers, like Jace Fry, going for $9 on average last week. In week 3, Jacob Barnes was picked up in all 34 leagues averaging $206 per winning bid.
Unless a team unexpectantly releases a player, owners should not be looking to spend over $10 per player even though my estimates are higher.
| Name | Previous Ownership% | Current Ownership% | Change% | Cost |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Luke Voit 1B | NYY | 10% | 45% | 35% | $61 |
| Tyler White 1B | HOU | 29% | 60% | 31% | $65 |
| Jake Junis SP | KC | 19% | 38% | 19% | $23 |
| Franmil Reyes OF | SD | 37% | 54% | 17% | $40 |
| Wade LeBlanc RP | SEA | 68% | 85% | 17% | $65 |
| Hunter Renfroe RF | SD | 62% | 75% | 13% | $27 |
| Adam Wainwright SP | STL | 9% | 21% | 12% | $25 |
| Francisco Mejia C | SD | 1% | 12% | 11% | $19 |
| Wade Miley SP | MIL | 57% | 68% | 11% | $40 |
| Stephen Piscotty RF | OAK | 12% | 23% | 11% | $13 |
| Framber Valdez RP | HOU | 13% | 23% | 10% | $24 |
| Jason Vargas SP | NYM | 12% | 17% | 5% | $16 |
| Wei-Yin Chen SP | MIA | 11% | 16% | 5% | $6 |
| Manny Pina C | MIL | 10% | 19% | 9% | $16 |
| Matt Shoemaker SP | LAA | 9% | 15% | 6% | $15 |
| Sandy Alcantara RP | MIA | 8% | 13% | 5% | $13 |
| Jake Cave CF | MIN | 7% | 15% | 8% | $17 |
| Ryan O’Hearn 1B | KC | 7% | 13% | 6% | $10 |
| Brandon Lowe 2B | TB | 6% | 15% | 9% | $18 |
| Joe Ross SP | WAS | 4% | 12% | 8% | $16 |
The one player I expect to get the most action in the NFBC is Francisco Mejia. Mejia has been a disappointment the past two seasons but after hitting two homers on Thursday, owners could expect a breakout. Additionally, the catcher position is a wasteland, so he will be an upgrade for half the league’s catchers.
It’s just not a good week for pickups but good luck fishing anyway.
Jeff, one of the authors of the fantasy baseball guide,The Process, writes for RotoGraphs, The Hardball Times, Rotowire, Baseball America, and BaseballHQ. He has been nominated for two SABR Analytics Research Award for Contemporary Analysis and won it in 2013 in tandem with Bill Petti. He has won four FSWA Awards including on for his Mining the News series. He's won Tout Wars three times, LABR twice, and got his first NFBC Main Event win in 2021. Follow him on Twitter @jeffwzimmerman.
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