Week 24 FAAB Estimates
With most of the money of the FAAB dollars long gone, owners are stretching every last dollar to acquire talent. This week’s bidding may drain everyone’s budget as several players are on the move and some impactful rookies could be called up.
First up are last week’s results.
Predicted vs. Actual FAAB Bids for @thenfbc Main Event
Name: Pred, Actual
Kopech: $70, $71
Morales: $35, $27
Gaviglio: $11, $7
B Wilson: $7, $1
G Allen: $15, $17
Melky Cab: $21, $9I'm slowly getting better estimates.https://t.co/nPSjaec31q
— Jeff Zimmerman (@jeffwzimmerman) August 27, 2018
The estimates and results are inline, especially being only $1 off on Kopech’s bids. Enough about last week, it’s time for this week’s estimates.
The ownership rates are provided by CBSSportsline. I use them because CBS leagues allow immediate adds, so a player’s demand can be known before those with weekly bidding.
As for the bids, I’m estimating NFBC Main Event bids which are 15-team mixed leagues with $1000 in FAAB. Owners in different leagues will need to adjust these values to their own leagues.
I’ve included the players who have seen the highest jumps in ownership and some with lower ownership for those in deeper leagues.
| Name | Previous Ownership% | Current Ownership% | Change% | Cost |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler White 1B | HOU | 10% | 45% | 35% | $61 |
| Kendrys Morales DH | TOR | 29% | 60% | 31% | $65 |
| John Gant RP | STL | 19% | 38% | 19% | $23 |
| Jeremy Jeffress RP | MIL | 37% | 54% | 17% | $40 |
| Marwin Gonzalez LF | HOU | 68% | 85% | 17% | $65 |
| Trevor Williams SP | PIT | 62% | 75% | 13% | $27 |
| Greg Allen CF | CLE | 9% | 21% | 12% | $25 |
| Luke Voit 1B | NYY | 1% | 12% | 11% | $19 |
| Ken Giles RP | TOR | 57% | 68% | 11% | $40 |
| Sam Gaviglio SP | TOR | 12% | 23% | 11% | $13 |
| Luis Urias SS | SD | 13% | 23% | 10% | $24 |
| Martin Maldonado C | HOU | 12% | 17% | 5% | $16 |
| Chris Stratton SP | SF | 11% | 16% | 5% | $6 |
| Adam Plutko SP | CLE | 10% | 19% | 9% | $16 |
| Tyler Austin 1B | MIN | 9% | 15% | 6% | $15 |
| Jace Fry RP | CHW | 8% | 13% | 5% | $13 |
| Phillip Ervin CF | CIN | 7% | 15% | 8% | $17 |
| Pat Neshek RP | PHI | 7% | 13% | 6% | $10 |
| Nick Hundley C | SF | 6% | 15% | 9% | $18 |
| Ramon Laureano RF | OAK | 4% | 12% | 8% | $16 |
| Joshua James SP | HOU | 4% | 8% | 4% | $3 |
| David Hess P | BAL | 3% | 11% | 8% | $7 |
| Billy McKinney RF | TOR | 3% | 10% | 7% | $14 |
| Roman Quinn LF | PHI | 3% | 7% | 4% | $9 |
| Framber Valdez RP | HOU | 0% | 10% | 10% | $13 |
There isn’t a whole lot of impactful names in the table. The most interesting to me is Luis Urias who projects for just a $24 bid. The rookie callup has garnered a ton of hype.
Of the players moved yesterday at the deadline, the most fantasy relevant is who is starting for the Nationals with Gio Gonzalez on the move to the Brewers. Looking around the interwebs this morning, I see a ton of TBD for his rotation spot. As for the Gonzalez, he seems to be taking Freddy Peralta’s spot in the rotation.
The big question will be the bids on Vladimir Guerrero Jr. or Eloy Jimenez if they get promoted. In most leagues, they are already owned but they may not be in NFBC where minor leaguers can’t be owned unless they were drafted. Guerrero’s ownership is at 68% and Jimenez’s is at 61%. Their ownerships are close to Marwin Gonzalez and an average $65 bid seems reasonable with Kopech going for $71 last week and there is less money available.
As I write this report on Saturday morning, none of these major rookies have been promoted. That might change during the day. If it does, I will try to comment on the changes but guarantees.
That’s it before a morning of soccer and an afternoon of driving. Maybe I’ll have Ruby provide updates from the road. Until then, happy fishing.
Jeff, one of the authors of the fantasy baseball guide,The Process, writes for RotoGraphs, The Hardball Times, Rotowire, Baseball America, and BaseballHQ. He has been nominated for two SABR Analytics Research Award for Contemporary Analysis and won it in 2013 in tandem with Bill Petti. He has won four FSWA Awards including on for his Mining the News series. He's won Tout Wars three times, LABR twice, and got his first NFBC Main Event win in 2021. Follow him on Twitter @jeffwzimmerman.