Week 23 Mixed League FAAB Estimates
Since I’ve started this tracking the NFBC Main Event FAAB bids, I’ve gained some insight on how the owners spend their money. A few nuggets I’ve found is the high prices paid by owners chasing Saves and the money hoarding that happens right before the trade deadline. This week, it’s time to see the money spent on impact rookies with the promotion of Michael Kopech.
I expected a fairly bland week with prospect call-ups starting next week. After September 1st, any player on the 40-man roster can be called up and the time in the majors doesn’t count for their service clock. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Eloy Jimenez are the two big names who owners have been waiting on.
Without getting too far ahead, here is a look at how last week’s newly adjusted projections performed.
The results from my FAAB estimates this week.
I was way off on Taylor Ward but his value heavily depends on him being catcher eligible.
Owners stepped up to pay for closers this week. https://t.co/kimu1c0IiY pic.twitter.com/OI8DFDffut
— Jeff Zimmerman (@jeffwzimmerman) August 21, 2018
While the results (and spelling) were not perfect, they were better than the previous few weeks. Owners do continue to spend their limited resources on potential closers (Hildenberger and Glover).
One bid which may foreshadow this upcoming week were the Touki Toussaint bids. His ownership jumped from 12% to 20% and his bids exceeded expectations by about $10. It’ll be interesting to see how owners react to another new shiny toy.
To start the analysis, here are this week’s estimates (CBS Sportsline ownership rates).
| Name | Previous Ownership% | Current Ownership% | Change% | Estimated Bids |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Kopech SP | CHW | 47% | 81% | 34% | $70 |
| Austin Gomber SP | STL | 34% | 59% | 25% | $50 |
| Brett Anderson SP | OAK | 21% | 45% | 24% | $43 |
| Trevor Cahill SP | OAK | 57% | 74% | 17% | $49 |
| Kendrys Morales DH | TOR | 14% | 31% | 17% | $35 |
| Taylor Ward C | LAA | 34% | 50% | 16% | $45 |
| Daniel Poncedeleon SP | STL | 12% | 28% | 16% | $27 |
| Mike Fiers SP | OAK | 67% | 82% | 15% | $50 |
| Harrison Bader CF | STL | 39% | 53% | 14% | $44 |
| Dellin Betances RP | NYY | 28% | 42% | 14% | $20 |
| Trevor Hildenberger RP | MIN | 13% | 20% | 7% | $9 |
| Matt Wieters C | WAS | 11% | 16% | 5% | $15 |
| Cedric Mullins CF | BAL | 9% | 16% | 7% | $17 |
| Stephen Gonsalves SP | MIN | 6% | 19% | 13% | $20 |
| Sam Gaviglio SP | TOR | 6% | 13% | 7% | $11 |
| Felix Pena RP | LAA | 6% | 10% | 4% | $7 |
| Melky Cabrera LF | CLE | 5% | 16% | 11% | $21 |
| Bryse Wilson SP | ATL | 3% | 8% | 5% | $7 |
| Kevin Plawecki C | NYM | 3% | 8% | 5% | $11 |
| Greg Allen CF | CLE | 2% | 10% | 8% | $15 |
It’s a $70 estimate for Kopech. Normally, players owned at a 47% clip have long been rostered in NFBC leagues. Except for rookies. Rookies who weren’t originally drafted can’t be owned until they debut. Some owners drafted him and have stashed him until now. In leagues where he is available, it’ll be an interesting test case since he’s a highly touted impact player but with other potential callups occurring next week.
Besides just my algorithm generated answer, I’ll look at some other rookie call-ups to see how teams bid. I would have liked to have more pitchers but not many touted pitchers have been promoted.
| Name | Avg Bid | Week | Previous Week FAAB% |
|---|---|---|---|
| Juan Soto | $340 | 10 | 48% |
| Gleyber Torres | $335 | 6 | 76% |
| Mike Soroka | $173 | 7 | 71% |
| Nick Kingham | $170 | 7 | 71% |
| Domingo German | $167 | 7 | 71% |
| Fernando Romero | $135 | 7 | 71% |
| Jake Bauers | $48 | 12 | 37% |
| Bids after week 14 | |||
| Kyle Tucker | $245 | 16 | 22% |
| Garrett Hampson | $33 | 18 | 20% |
| Tyler O’Neill | $30 | 15 | 27% |
| Lourdes Gurriel Jr. | $28 | 19 | 19% |
| Willy Adames | $28 | 18 | 20% |
| Tyler Glasnow | $18 | 20 | 15% |
| Touki Toussaint | $17 | 22 | 13% |
The average team has $113 left so the $70 projection can be reached as long as too much money isn’t tied up in dead teams. The Glasnow and Toussaint bids set a nice floor at just under $20. Right now, half the money (22% vs 11%) available is left when Tucker went for $245, so a top end of $112 ($245 * 50%) is reasonable.
For each league, the key is to determine how much dead money exists, the league’s highest team FAAB totals, and if the owners with the hammer are looking for pitching or hitting. If it’s hitting, they may gamble on getting Vlad next week.
Looking over the past bids, the $70 estimate may be higher than the final results but some owners may need to pay up for pitching help. I think some owners have been saving the hammer for Vlad and may just wait thereby keeping Kopech’s bids down.
This week’s Kopech bids will set the stage for next week’s bids as some of the hitters are likely to get called up. With little FAAB let in everyone’s pocket, it’ll be interesting to see how much owners spend their last few dollars.
Jeff, one of the authors of the fantasy baseball guide,The Process, writes for RotoGraphs, The Hardball Times, Rotowire, Baseball America, and BaseballHQ. He has been nominated for two SABR Analytics Research Award for Contemporary Analysis and won it in 2013 in tandem with Bill Petti. He has won four FSWA Awards including on for his Mining the News series. He's won Tout Wars three times, LABR twice, and got his first NFBC Main Event win in 2021. Follow him on Twitter @jeffwzimmerman.