Week 22 Mixed-League FAAB Estimates
For the past month, I’ve been struggling to estimate the NFBC Main Event FAAB bids with my estimates coming in on the high side. I thought dormant owners or the trade deadline could have been behind the low estimates. After still being about three times too high last week, I dove in and redid my prediction formulas with hopefully better results.
For reference, here were some of the estimates and bids from last week.
I've been trying to estimate the weekly FAAB spent in the @thenfbc main event leagues.
My projections are over, again
Name: Projected, Actual
Scott Alexander: 111, 29
Ryan Madson: 100, 22
Brian Johnson: 18, 6
Hunter Renfroe: 45, 26
Tommy Milone: 11, 4— Jeff Zimmerman (@jeffwzimmerman) August 13, 2018
The values were so far off, they needed a correction. After testing several methods, I came up with improved results. The biggest change was a larger weekly factor dragging down estimated bids as the season progresses.
Some estimates were over $100 for last week. Most bids now max out just over $50 with Ryan Zimmerman likely to be the top bid in the few leagues he’s still available.
With the new improved formula, here are this week’s estimates on the 10 players seeing the most movement at CBS Sportsline and ten deeper league options. I use CBS Sportline’s ownership rates since the website hosts leagues with a daily waiver wire. Player desirability can be gleaned from these early changes.
| Name | Previous Ownership% | Current Ownership% | Change% | Estimated Bids |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Taylor Ward C | LAA | 4% | 33% | 29% | $49 |
| Mike Fiers SP | OAK | 45% | 66% | 21% | $51 |
| Austin Gomber SP | STL | 9% | 32% | 23% | $38 |
| Ryan Zimmerman 1B | WAS | 53% | 68% | 15% | $54 |
| Hyun-Jin Ryu SP | LAD | 51% | 71% | 20% | $52 |
| Harrison Bader CF | STL | 22% | 38% | 16% | $39 |
| Tyler Glasnow SP | TB | 48% | 59% | 11% | $37 |
| Kevin Gausman SP | ATL | 71% | 84% | 13% | $50 |
| Pedro Strop RP | CHC | 57% | 66% | 9% | $22 |
| Brett Anderson SP | OAK | 6% | 20% | 14% | $23 |
| Hunter Renfroe RF | SD | 19% | 24% | 5% | $20 |
| John Gant RP | STL | 14% | 20% | 6% | $15 |
| Ronald Guzman 1B | TEX | 11% | 14% | 3% | $13 |
| Touki Toussaint SP | ATL | 12% | 20% | 8% | $17 |
| Daniel Palka RF | CHW | 10% | 13% | 3% | $12 |
| Danny Jansen C | TOR | 9% | 16% | 7% | $18 |
| Trevor Hildenberger RP | MIN | 5% | 13% | 8% | $9 |
| Sean Reid-Foley SP | TOR | 6% | 8% | 2% | $5 |
| Koda Glover RP | WAS | 2% | 16% | 14% | $14 |
| Tyler White 1B | HOU | 3% | 7% | 4% | $10 |
Here are my some thoughts on several players.
- Taylor Ward could go for quite a bit if he keeps catcher eligibility while playing every day at third base. In leagues where is qualified at catcher, he’s a must own.
- Brett Anderson is getting a bit of love as he’s a 2-start pitcher against Texas and Minnesota. Don’t expect many strikeouts since he has a 4.4 K/9 on the season.
- If Trevor Hildenberger is available in a league, I expect him to go for more than $9. He’s probably closer to the $25 range as the 13% ownership seems low.
Jeff, one of the authors of the fantasy baseball guide,The Process, writes for RotoGraphs, The Hardball Times, Rotowire, Baseball America, and BaseballHQ. He has been nominated for two SABR Analytics Research Award for Contemporary Analysis and won it in 2013 in tandem with Bill Petti. He has won four FSWA Awards including on for his Mining the News series. He's won Tout Wars three times, LABR twice, and got his first NFBC Main Event win in 2021. Follow him on Twitter @jeffwzimmerman.
Great stuff, Jeff. I’m in 16 team 12 kpr. pts. league and need a SP to survive the second week of the consolation bracket (first pick in the draft next year is at stake).
Then I’m hoping I’ll get Paxton back.
I’ve got $280 to spend on either Gomber or Brett Anderson. Gomber has two tough starts at LAD and COL, while B. Anderson has two starts next week against two of the weaker hitting teams the second half of the season: TEX and MINN.
Does $36 sound too much for Anderson? Keep in mind everybody in the league is looking for pitching until the first eight teams are eliminated in the first round in both the playoff and consolation brackets.
Wins matter less than IPs in this points league with standard deductions.
I could drop Senzatela (next start at home in Coors Field, though he has a nice GB%) and bid on both.
I’d go more as you need this win and spend $100 or more on Anderson. I’d not mess around in your situation. You’ll likely be mad if you undershot by a bit.
Thanks for the reply. Saw your response too late for the 11 AM deadline. $48 got Anderson. I couldn’t believe it turned out I was bidding against nobody else. Everybody was more interested in Gomber.