Week 18 FAAB Estimates
Last week’s results were the first major failure in my FAAB estimation procedure. The main issue was that the average NFBC bids were about 1/3 of the expected values after being almost dead on for several weeks.
I’m not going to re-create the formulas I use last week because I’m worried owners held tight to their FAAB for the trade deadline. Almost nothing was spent last week except some owners speculating on Garrett Hampson. Spending has been tight for a couple of weeks. Here are the graphs of the totals spent each week and percentage.
I understand the overall values dollar values leveling off but the percentage change should be similar. From week 7 to 16, the values hovered around 8% to 15% of total FAAB left. The last two week have been the lowest since the first few weeks.
Since this is my first year collecting the data, I’m not sure of the effect of the trade deadline in mixed leagues. While it’s not as big of a deal as in Only leagues, roles are lost and gained as players move around.
This week’s FAAB process will be interesting with many moving parts. Besides the trade deadline, teams are promoting prospects, and there have been several moves to and from the DL. Owners should spend some extra time making sure every possible player addition is considered.
It’s time for my suspect valuations. Here are the top-10 adds at CBS Sportsline. Also, included are the least owned players for those in deeper leagues.
| Name | Team | Week 16 Ownership | Week 17 Ownership | Ownership Jump | Estimated FAAB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daniel Poncedeleon SP | STL | 1% | 25% | 24% | $39 |
| Robert Gsellman SP | NYM | 25% | 46% | 21% | $118 |
| Kirby Yates RP | SD | 44% | 62% | 18% | $132 |
| Ervin Santana SP | MIN | 48% | 64% | 16% | $60 |
| Stephen Piscotty RF | OAK | 57% | 70% | 13% | $117 |
| Anibal Sanchez SP | ATL | 63% | 76% | 13% | $66 |
| Dereck Rodriguez SP | SF | 45% | 57% | 12% | $50 |
| Kole Calhoun RF | LAA | 27% | 39% | 12% | $74 |
| Edwin Jackson SP | OAK | 10% | 22% | 12% | $23 |
| A.J. Minter RP | ATL | 40% | 51% | 11% | $98 |
| Pedro Strop RP | CHC | 11% | 16% | 5% | $34 |
| Felix Pena RP | LAA | 10% | 16% | 6% | $12 |
| Joey Wendle 2B | TB | 9% | 14% | 5% | $28 |
| Omar Narvaez C | CHW | 8% | 12% | 4% | $23 |
| Lourdes Gurriel SS | TOR | 7% | 17% | 10% | $41 |
| Garrett Hampson 2B | COL | 6% | 14% | 8% | $33 |
| Mitch Garver C | MIN | 4% | 11% | 7% | $27 |
| Wade Miley SP | MIL | 4% | 9% | 5% | $5 |
| Jace Fry RP | CHW | 2% | 12% | 10% | $42 |
| Jeff McNeil 3B | NYM | 1% | 5% | 4% | $14 |
In most deeper leagues, there is no one to bid on with most of the closer handcuffs (Yates, Minter, and Gsellman) already owned. There just isn’t a big name or two moving the market yet. I’m interested in seeing the results for the next two weeks.
Jeff, one of the authors of the fantasy baseball guide,The Process, writes for RotoGraphs, The Hardball Times, Rotowire, Baseball America, and BaseballHQ. He has been nominated for two SABR Analytics Research Award for Contemporary Analysis and won it in 2013 in tandem with Bill Petti. He has won four FSWA Awards including on for his Mining the News series. He's won Tout Wars three times, LABR twice, and got his first NFBC Main Event win in 2021. Follow him on Twitter @jeffwzimmerman.
What’s your estimate on the newly recalled M.Sano?
$40 to $60. He was kept in all my leagues.