Week 16 FAAB Estimates

After my first attempt into the estimating FAAB bids, I’ve been working away matching up ownership jumps with the actual bids. I’m close to being done as I work backward from the most recent weeks to the season’s beginning. By using these most recent values I found some interesting conclusions along with FAAB estimates for this week.

First, thanks again to everyone who has suggested any improvements. I’m trying to implement as many as possible. Second, if you are reading this more than a week from the publish date, look for newer articles. I’m just at the initial stages of creating the FAAB estimate equations.

As for information I’ve found out.

1. Owners spend a ton of FAAB chasing Saves. Of the top-10 players with the most money spent on them from week 13 to week 15, six were potential closers with 27 teams spending $1550 on A.J. Minter in week 14.
One issue possibly driving this high value is that for a team to win the overall NFBC prize, they must beat all the other 509 owners. They can’t dump a category. Owners who are behind with Saves are still grinding away. Other leagues may not see values this high.

I’m wondering if some owners have noticed this imbalance and spend more resources in the draft or auction on closers. With more of a Save base, they can spend more FAAB dollars on hitters and starters who they neglected during the draft/auction and go for cheaper FAAB amounts.

2. While I just broke everyone into two groups in my first report, three player groups now exist: starters, hitters, and potential closers. Each one has its own weighting. The one item I noticed was the starting pitcher ownership jump, instead of an overall rate, had more of a weight on the auction value. My guess is this value is from being a two-start pitcher (possibly on CBS’s two-start pitcher rankings).

As I collect more data, there may be another couple groups: split out 2-start pitchers and rookie call-ups. Rookies seem to get a little more love than the average player.

Now onto this weeks estimated FAAB bids based on a $1000 budget. Instances when ten or more teams (NFBC Main Event) bid on the players were used to create these formulas. The data was from weeks 13 to 15 with no weekly adjustment (working on one for the future).

As for the range in values, expect most to fall in the range of: +/- (0.6 * Projected FAAB). For example, if a bid is projected at $20, the range of bids should be $8 to $32. While this may seem like a wide margin, it at least keeps an owner closer to the actual outcome. They can be sure if they have a chance to get the player or are bidding way too high and therefore wasting FAAB.

Here are this week’s formulas. Ownership percentages based on the jump from week 14 to 15 and their week 15 ownership rate.

Starters: FAAB Estimate = (1.0 * Ownership%) +(1.4 * % Point Change in Ownership)
Potential Closers: FAAB Estimate = .73 * (Ownership% + % Point Change in Ownership)
Batters: Starters: FAAB Estimate = (.60 * Ownership%) + (.33 * % Point Change in Ownership)

With these values, here are the estimated FAAB bids based on the most-added players at CBS. Additionally, for those in deeper leagues, I included 10 players with low ownership totals. Finally, the ownership totals were taken around noon on Saturday. If anyone pops up between then and Sunday night, owners will need to calculate the values.

That’s it for now as I continue to comb through the information to get formulas from start to end-of-season.