Waiver Wire Report (Week 7)

A few interesting starters to pair with a couple of rookie promotions. Not a ton going on.

In the article, I cover the players using CBS’s (about 40% or less initial roster rate) and Yahoo’s ADD/DROP rates. Both hosting sites have the option for daily and weekly waiver wire adds. CBS uses a weekly change while Yahoo looks at the last 24 hours. Yahoo is a great snapshot of right now while CBS ensures hot targets from early in the week aren’t missed. The players are ordered for redraft leagues by my rest-of-season preference grouped by starters, relievers, and hitters.

Hitters

Nolan Gorman: Gorman was destroying AAA with 15 HR and a .308/.367/.677 triple-slash line. He’s even chipped in three steals. As we discussed on the last Launch Angle Pod, two items could limit his expectations. In AAA, he had an unsustainable 39% HR/FB%. Our projections have him at a 20-to-25 HR pace over the rest of the season. His 34% K% in AAA is the other issue. If AAA pitcher could get him to swing-and-miss that much, the strikeouts could get out of hand in the majors.

Christian Walker: Walker’s .209 AVG (.283 xAVG) has been a drag but for any team needing power (10 HR), he’s a must roster. Most of the batting average drain was in April and has a .281 AVG so far in May.

Josh Rojas: A three homerun game will improve anyone’s stat line even though those are the only three he’s hit this season. He’s not a power hitter. He’ll give fantasy managers value by being qualified at four positions and stealing bases (3 this season). An added bonus is an improved batting average with his strikeout rate down from 24% for his career to 17% this season.

Jorge Mateo: His .608 OPS would normally mean he’s headed to the bench, but with offense down this season, he’s getting a little more run. His 11 SB are the only reason he’s being rostered. He is showing some power (2 HR) but a 29% K% is dragging down his .226 AVG and .262 OBP.

Mike Moustakas: He dealt with what was labeled as an arm/bicep/shoulder injury and went on the IL on April 19th. Before going on the IL, he was hitting .129/.125/.129 with 0 HR. Since coming off the IL, he’s hitting .292/.410/.508 with 3 HR. The one stat to keep an eye on is the strikeout rate. It’s down to 15% K% after the IL stint after being over 22% the past three seasons.

Kole Calhoun: He’s getting to his power (6 HR) and is not being platooned. So far, his batting average (.243) is not a drag like it has been in the past.

Santiago Espinal: He’s a fine bench hitter in shallow leagues and at least a starter in deeper leagues with his second and third base eligibility. He’s got a .296 AVG with 2 HR and 3 SB. The profile is not league winning it is better than most other options.

Hunter Dozier: He’s started in 14 of the last 15 games while hitting .327/.383/.473 with 1 HR and 1 SB over that time. He has just a .279 AVG with 4 HR on the season. I wonder if his allure is just the third base and outfield eligibility. Or the lack of any other viable options.

Ben Gamel: He’s hitting (.274 AVG, 3 HR, 2 SB) and batting in the top half of the lineup.

Yadiel Hernandez: His .403 BABIP will likely regress but he’s playing every day and hitting in the heart of the lineup (20 RBI). An accumulator.

Tyler Naquin: A balanced profile (.257 AVG, 4 HR, 3 SB) and playing.

Christopher Morel: He’s started four straight (2 OF, 1 2B, 1 3B) since being called up. The 23-year-old is hitting .364/.462/.909 with 2 HR and 1 SB after hitting .306/.380/.565 with 7 HR and 3 SB in AAA. The power-speed combination is interesting making him add for managers with bench space to see how his production and playing time unfolds.

Eli White: He’s playing every day and leading off against lefties. The most important aspect of his game is the eight steals. The Rangers face the Angels (especially Thor) who allow a ton of stolen bases and then Oakland who have been pretty stingy with them.

Travis Demeritte: While he has some decent power (110 maxEV, 18% HR/FB), he has problems getting to it with a 34% K%. Power-only play.

Willi Castro: Castro’s trying to suck me back in by having a good season (.302 AVG, 1 HR, 1 SB) and batting second. He seems to be going for more contact (24% K% to 15% K%) and less power (StatCast HardHit% from 29% to 17%). He will need to start stealing a few bases to be more fantasy relevant.

Brendan Donovan: He has been decent (.293/.463/.463, 1 HR, 1 SB) and hitting at the top of the Cards lineup. The issue is that he’s an infielder and the addition of Gorman might push him to the bench. He was the DH in Gorman’s first game.

Miguel Cabrera: Miggy has been doing Miggy things. He’s not a drag in batting average (.276) while providing some power (3 HR).

Andrew Velazquez: He’s playing all the time while batting ninth. He has stolen six bases with no batting average (.190) or power (.080 ISO, 1 HR).

Jace Peterson: He’s showing some power (3 HR) and speed (6 SB) with no batting average (.215) while being qualified at four positions. He’s back to facing righties with Willy Adames on the IL for a week or more. The Brewers face five righties next week with three coming in the first half of the week.

Luis Arraez: I can see the allure with a .313 AVG and multi-position flexibility, but he’s not starting against lefties and has no power (.081 ISO). Bench bat. The Twins face five righties next week.

Gavin Sheets: An extreme flyball approach (37% GB%) has led to some home runs (4) but a low batting average (.204). He only starts against righties (career .817 OPS vs RHP, .248 OPS vs LHP). The White Sox have five games next week with three scheduled versus lefties.

Brad Miller: Starts only against righties (career .775 OPS vs RHP, .612 vs LHP) while providing some power (6 HR) and speed (4 HR). The Rangers only face three righties next week.

Luis Gonzalez: He was demoted to the minors earlier in the week but rejoined the team when LaMonte Wade Jr. went on the IL. With most of the team healthy, I expect Gonzalez will only play against righties (career .973 OPS vs RHP, .377 OPS vs LHP).

José Iglesias: An batting average only play when at home (.444 AVG at home, .229 AVG on the road). And the Rockies are on road next week.

Yonathan Daza: Another Rockie home streamer for batting average (career .315 AVG at home, .241 on the road) who provides no power or speed.

Catchers

MJ Melendez: I know ranking Melendez above Rutschman will draw some ire, but if I was to roster one of the two for the rest of the season knowing what I know now, it would be Melendez. In about 50 PA he’s shown the ability to handle MLB pitching (.286/.348/.500, 2 HR).

Adley Rutschman: The game’s top prospect has seen limited time in the minors (tricep injury) but has shown a great eye (>13% BB% over three levels, <10% K%) and decent power (~.200 ISO). His Steamer600 projection (16 HR, 3 SB, .251 AVG, .338 OBP) is almost identical to Tyler Stevenson (15 HR, 1 SB, .263 AVG, .344 OPB). He’s easily in the conversation for the top half dozen or so catchers in the league.

Danny Jansen: Jansen is off the IL and hopefully back to hitting (.300 AVG, 3 HR).

Curt Casali: He’s started in five of the last 10 games while hitting .264/.344/.472 with 3 HR. A reasonable second catcher upgrade for some team.

William Contreras: He was showing some power (4 HR, .600 SLG) but his playing time dried up when Ronald Acuña Jr. started stealing most of the DH starts.

Jacob Stallings: I’m not sure why the demand (.206 AVG, 1 HR). Maybe it is because he’s hitting .281/.343/.313 over the past two weeks.

CBS Batter Rostership Rates
Name Start Roster% End Roster% Change
Adley Rutschman C BAL 81% 88% 7%
Nolan Gorman 2B STL 48% 64% 16%
Luis Arraez 1B MIN 40% 42% 2%
Jorge Mateo SS BAL 36% 39% 3%
MJ Melendez C KC 34% 48% 14%
Santiago Espinal 2B TOR 33% 37% 4%
Hunter Dozier DH KC 30% 36% 6%
Josh Rojas 3B ARI 29% 32% 3%
Yadiel Hernandez LF WAS 25% 30% 5%
Christian Walker 1B ARI 23% 39% 16%
Mike Moustakas 3B CIN 23% 33% 10%
Danny Jansen C TOR 18% 26% 8%
Jacob Stallings C MIA 16% 18% 2%
Tyler Naquin RF CIN 14% 22% 8%
Ben Gamel LF PIT 13% 24% 11%
Kole Calhoun RF TEX 11% 21% 10%
Miguel Cabrera DH DET 11% 15% 4%
Travis Demeritte RF ATL 11% 13% 2%
Gavin Sheets DH CHW 11% 13% 2%
Jose Iglesias SS COL 10% 12% 2%
Brad Miller 3B TEX 9% 13% 4%
Brendan Donovan SS STL 5% 18% 13%
Luis Gonzalez LF SF 5% 11% 6%
William Contreras C ATL 5% 11% 6%
Willi Castro LF DET 3% 6% 3%
Jace Peterson 3B MIL 2% 7% 5%
Eli White CF TEX 1% 12% 11%
Andrew Velazquez SS LAA 1% 5% 4%
Curt Casali C SF 1% 5% 4%
Yonathan Daza CF COL 1% 4% 3%
Christopher Morel CF CHC 0% 3% 3%

Starters

Brady Singer: In just over 12 IP, he has a 10.7 K/9, 0.7 BB/9, and 2.84 ERA. He’s been lights out throwing his sinker (75% GB%) and slider (26% SwStr%). Also, he added a changeup (6% SwStr%) in his last start (17% usage). The time to roster him cheaply was last week but he’s one of the few available pitchers without a major flaw.

Nick Pivetta: He’s dominated so far in May (1.71 ERA, 0.65 WHIP, 8.5 K/9) by limiting hard contact (0.3 HR/9, .221 BABIP). He’s been helped by the sad, boring ball since he normally gets hit around as seen by his career 1.5 HR/9 and .311 BABIP. Additionally, his strikeouts are down (10.2 K/9 to 8.7 K/9) from 2021 because he has lost 1.7 mph off his fastball. He’s got a two-start week coming up at the White Sox and versus the Orioles.

Chase Silseth: The hard-throwing (96 mph fastball), 22-year-old righty has my attention. After destroying AA (1.73 ERA, 12.8 K/9, 0.85 WHIP), he shows a ton of promise after two major league starts. The strikeouts have continued (10 in 10 IP) with the only negative being his four walks. He’s getting by with a three-pitch mix of fastball (9% SwStr%), splitter (17%), and slider (19%). Most of the pitchers ranked today are old vets while Silseth has some upside.

Kyle Bradish: His 18.4 K-BB% would rank 22nd among this season’s qualified starters and is similar to Alek Manoah and Chris Bassitt. Brasish’s issue so far is getting hit around with a 1.7 HR/9 and .352 BABIP. Both are leading to a 1.36 WHIP and 5.06 ERA while his xFIP is at 3.44 and SIERA at 3.40. Part of the problem is that his cutter is the only pitch with Zone% over 45% (it’s at 61%) and he might be forced to use it when behind in the count.

Martín Pérez: He a slightly better version of Lorenzen with a low number of walks (2.2 BB/9) and strikeouts (6.7 K/9) and a decent groundball rate (55%), Each of those numbers has improved as the season has gone on. He should be started by some team against Oakland next week.

Michael Lorenzen: I can’t get excited about him. While he has a low walk rate (2.8 BB/9) and respectable groundball numbers (55% GB%), it’s coming with few strikeouts (6.1 K/9) and a declining velocity. I’d consider him a streaming option, but with the Angels six-man rotation, he may never get a two-start week.

Wade Miley: He’s only made two starts with 7 K and 5 BB over 10 IP. The walks are definitely concerning. While his fastball velocity is down over half a tick, he’s trying to streamline his pitch mix by dumping his curve (10% SwStr% for his career) and throwing his slider (16 SwStr%) more. He has a 64% GB% so far and if he could keep it up, he’d end up with some nice numbers. Add but bench.

Alex Faedo: He’s been decent (2.87 ERA, 3.92 xFIP, 1.28 WHIP, 6.9 K/9). After going over his profile, the best chance for him to take a step forward is to lean into his slider (24% SwStr%, 54% GB%) and throw his four-seamer (7% SwStr%, 33% GB%) fewer times.

Matthew Liberatore: The 22-year-old lefty made his MLB debut yesterday and wasn’t horrible (4.2 IP, 4 ER, 3 K, 2 BB). I’m not excited to roster him but did rank him ahead of several similar pitchers based on a possible second gear.

Jakob Junis: I was hesitant to buy into Junis earlier because it was tough to know if he was in the rotation. While he might not stay there, he has been decent by not walking anyone (1.4 BB/9) while generating enough strikeouts (6.8 K/9) and groundballs (49%) to get by.

Johnny Cueto: He’s back mixing up his pitches and delivery. He tore apart the Royals in his first start back for seven strikeouts and zero runs allowed. As always with him, the key to his success will be keeping his walk rate under 3.0 BB/9. Every season that he’s struggled, he walked too many batters.

Keegan Thompson: Thompson has normally been a multi-inning reliever this season (7.6 K/9, 1.03 WHIP, 1.41 ERA, 3.88 xFIP), but got the start on Wednesday and shoved (5 IP, 5 K, 0 BB, 0 ER). It doesn’t seem like he’ll be a permanent part of the rotation. If he doesn’t throw on Sunday, he should be lineup up for at least two long appearances next week. While he might not be a permanent part of a rotation, he could be a one-week bandaid.

José Quintana: Quintana is a perfect example of how fickle ERA is. While he had near-identical xFIPs the past two seasons (3.75 vs 3.92) his 2021 ERA was over four runs higher (6.43 ERA vs 2.19 ERA).

Rich Hill: I feel like I’m settling whenever I roster Hill. In six starts, he’s only gone over 5 IP once and he got a win in that game. Also, his 6.9 K/9 is the lowest rate since 2011. A streamer who faces off against Lucas Giolito in his one start next week.

David Peterson: A .235 BABIP and 0.5 HR/9 have his ERA down to 1.89 to pair with a 1.11 WHIP. A 56% GB% (53% in AAA) will keep both batted-ball metrics suppressed but not to these levels. My biggest worry with his is if/when he’ll pitch. Right now, there is a chance he’ll start Monday against the Giants, but it’s not for sure. Similar skills to Quintana but unknown role.

Zach Logue: Logue’s 2.04 ERA and 1.19 WHIP are being suppressed by a .264 BABIP with his ERA estimators in the mid-4.50’s range. He’s getting by forcing balls into the air (26% GB%) and could start giving up more home runs (2.8 HR/9 in AAA). The 26-year-old lefty might be getting some play because he is lined up for two starts (at SEA, vs TEX).

Zach Thompson: He’s only allowed one run in his last three starts (16 IP, 11 K, 4 BB). He’s made two changes during that time. First, he’s throwing more strikes with his walk rate dropping from 5.9 BB/9 to 2.3 BB/9. Second, he’s moved away from his four-seamer (22% to 9%) and is throwing his cutter (29% to 42%) and sinker (20% to 29%) more. His cutter is by far his best pitch (14% SwStr%) and he should be throwing it more. The deal is that while these changes are an improvement, they might not even help him enough to be an average pitcher. A deep-league only spec play.

Zach Davies: Davies is a below-average pitcher (6.9 K/9, 3.4 BB/9, 45% GB%, 4.35 ERA), but has two starts next week (vs KC, vs LAD). I’d look for a better pitcher with a better matchup (e.g. Kyle Freeland).

Connor Overton: Exhibit #39323 on why making decisions based on just ERA is bad. In 24 innings he has a 3.7 K/9 and a 2.6 BB/9 which puts his xFIP at 4.59 and SIERA at 5.19. The deal is that he’s allowed zero home runs and is riding a .208 BABIP so he has a 1.82 ERA and 0.89 WHIP. I don’t see any skills this soft-tossing righty can build off.

Michael Grove: Grove has been good in AAA (2.76 ERA, 12.1 K/9, 0.98 WHIP) and got one spot start a week ago (3.2 IP, 3 K, 3 BB, 0 ER, 4 R). He threw a 95-mph fastball and prospectors have graded his curve and slider average or better. The only issue is that he’s no longer in the majors and it’s unknown when he’ll get another chance.

Pitching Prospects

Roansy Contreras: In AAA, he has a 3.52 ERA, 0.91 WHIP, and 11.7 K/9.

Brayan Bello: The 23-year-old righty destroyed AA (1.60 ERA, 11.2 K/9, 0.83 WHIP) and just got promoted to AAA.

CBS Starter Rostership Rates
Name Start Roster% End Roster% Change
Michael Lorenzen SP LAA 40% 47% 7%
Nick Pivetta SP BOS 35% 53% 18%
Martin Perez SP TEX 30% 54% 24%
Roansy Contreras RP PIT 18% 21% 3%
Wade Miley SP CHC 17% 24% 7%
Matthew Liberatore SP STL 15% 25% 10%
Kyle Bradish SP BAL 14% 19% 5%
Keegan Thompson RP CHC 14% 17% 3%
Jose Quintana SP PIT 10% 20% 10%
David Peterson SP NYM 9% 11% 2%
Brady Singer RP KC 8% 11% 3%
Rich Hill SP BOS 7% 11% 4%
Zach Davies SP ARI 7% 10% 3%
Zach Logue SP OAK 6% 14% 8%
Jake Junis SP SF 6% 10% 4%
Johnny Cueto SP CHW 4% 18% 14%
Alex Faedo SP DET 4% 9% 5%
Brayan Bello SP BOS 4% 6% 2%
Zach Thompson SP PIT 4% 6% 2%
Connor Overton SP CIN 2% 8% 6%
Chase Silseth SP LAA 1% 24% 23%
Michael Grove SP LAD 0% 2% 2%

Closers – Saves based ranks

Alexis Díaz: OK reliever (major walk issues) who is the closer.

Emilio Pagán: Good reliever who is sharing the closer’s role.

Brooks Raley 레일리: Great reliever who is sharing the closer’s role.

Clay Holmes: Great reliever who may be sharing the closer’s role.

Félix Bautista: Good reliever who is the backup closer.

J.P. Feyereisen: Good reliever who may be sharing the closer’s role.

Rowan Wick: Good reliever who is the backup closer.

Adam Cimber: Below-average reliever who is the backup closer.

A.J. Minter: Great reliever who needs a couple of pitchers to falter to be the closer.

Will Vest: Great reliever who needs a couple of pitchers to falter to be the closer. And is on the COVID-IL.

Brock Burke: Great reliever who is being used in a multi-inning fashion.

CBS Reliever Rostership Rates
Name Start Roster% End Roster% Change
Emilio Pagan RP MIN 35% 40% 5%
Clay Holmes RP NYY 30% 43% 13%
Rowan Wick RP CHC 19% 24% 5%
Adam Cimber RP TOR 13% 15% 2%
Brock Burke RP TEX 11% 14% 3%
Brooks Raley RP TB 11% 13% 2%
J.P. Feyereisen RP TB 8% 12% 4%
Felix Bautista RP BAL 3% 5% 2%
A.J. Minter RP ATL 3% 5% 2%
Alexis Diaz RP CIN 1% 7% 6%
Will Vest RP DET 0% 5% 5%





Jeff, one of the authors of the fantasy baseball guide,The Process, writes for RotoGraphs, The Hardball Times, Rotowire, Baseball America, and BaseballHQ. He has been nominated for two SABR Analytics Research Award for Contemporary Analysis and won it in 2013 in tandem with Bill Petti. He has won four FSWA Awards including on for his Mining the News series. He's won Tout Wars three times, LABR twice, and got his first NFBC Main Event win in 2021. Follow him on Twitter @jeffwzimmerman.

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bswelly
1 year ago

Thanks Jeff, as always. Interested to see if Singer keeps it up today