Waiver Wire Report (Week 26)
In the article, I cover the players using CBS’s (about 40% or less initial roster rate) and Yahoo’s ADD/DROP rates. Both hosting sites have the option for daily and weekly waiver wire adds. CBS uses a weekly change while Yahoo looks at the last 24 hours. Yahoo is a great snapshot of right now while CBS ensures hot targets from early in the week aren’t missed. The players are ordered for redraft leagues by my rest-of-season preference grouped by starters, relievers, and hitters.
Note for this week: My weekend is packed so I won’t be able to go into detail, if anything at all, on each player. The players are ranked according to my preference and I ended up getting more added than I expected.
Batters
Tommy Pham: He needs to be universally rostered with 16 HR and 20 SB while hitting .265/.335/.470.
Willi Castro: Playing all the time with 31 SB and 7 HR on the season.
DJ Stewart: Nice power (11 HR in 144 PA) while hitting at the top of the Mets lineup.
Ceddanne Rafaela: Six straight starts and four while leading off. So far he is hitting .357/.386/.595 with 2 HR and 1 SB. Here are his encouraging Steamer600 (ROS) comps.
Aaron Hicks: Starting and hitting (.284/.381/.456, 7 HR, 3 SB) since joining the Orioles.
Matt Vierling: Starting and on fire in September (1.040 OPS, 2 HR). Ride the hot hand.
Robbie Grossman: Seven straight starts (2 vs LHP) while hitting in the second half (.286/.421/.505, 3 HR, 1 SB in 133 PA).
Evan Carter: Sat twice (both vs LHP) since being promoted while playing centerfield. He might run into playing time issues when Adolis García returns next weekend. While strikeouts have been a problem (39% K%), the overall production (.923 OPS, 2 HR, 1 SB) has been fine.
Estevan Florial: Five straight starts in centerfield but with just a .514 OPS so far in the majors. His Steamer600 (ROS) comps are interesting.
Heston Kjerstad: He started (instead of Aaron Hicks) as the DH in his debut. His Steamer600 (ROS) comps are useable (including two teammates) but not elite.
I would read up and examine his playing time over the weekend. He should be fantasy-relevant if he gets regular at-bats.
Mark Canha: Starting all the time but not that productive (10 HR, 8 SB, .264 AVG).
Ryan Noda: Playing and hitting for power (15 HR in 435 PA) but a drag in batting average (.239 AVG, 33% K%).
Wilyer Abreu: Started in nine of the last 11 games for Boston while hitting .365/.431/.519 (.500 BABIP) with 1 HR and 2 SB.
Nelson Velázquez: Power-only bat (13 HR, 0 SB, .246 AVG) who is not able to get regular plate appearances (two starts in the last five games).
Andruw Monasterio: Continues to start while hitting .270/.344/.369 with 3 HR and 7 SB in 282 PA.
Jacob Young: At 18 straight starts while hitting just a .609 OPS but with 5 SB.
J.D. Davis: No longer playing every day (three starts in the last five) and probably got a boost because of the Colorado games.
Randal Grichuk: Started eight of the last 10 games. Typical boring season with 14 HR and a .269 AVG.
Max Kepler: It was a great week to roster him with seven righties on the schedule, but next week he is scheduled to only face four (3/1).
Pete Crow-Armstrong: Seems like Tauchman and him are splitting time in center with Bellinger at first base (Candelario on the IL). Only 8 PA so far with 3 K and two attempted bunts.
Luis Matos: Strong-side centerfield platoon bat with some righties coming up on the schedule. The 21-year-old just hasn’t done much in the majors with 2 HR, 3 SB, and a .266 AVG in 227 PA. He needs to hit the weight room this offseason.
Mike Yastrzemski: A seven-game week with four games at Colorado had his value up. With just five righties on the schedule next week, he’s probably only rosterable in the deepest of leagues.
Elehuris Montero: A seven-game homestand will have fantasy managers adding Rockies. Montero is interesting in that he made some adjustments and is hitting better in the second half (1H: .544 OPS, 2H: .860 OPS). Next week, Colorado is on the road and then home the final week against the Dodgers and Twins.
Chris Taylor: Barely playing half the time while hitting .235/.326/.437 with 15 HR and 15 SB. He’s doing all his damage against lefties (10 HR in 129 PA).
Catchers
Bo Naylor: He is heating up (.831 OPS in 2H) while providing some power (8 HR) and speed (4 SB).
Luis Campusano: Finally healthy and playing while hitting 6 HR with a .293 AVG.
Logan O’Hoppe: Nice source of power (10 HR in 150 PA) but not much else (.273 OBP, 0 SB).
Connor Wong: Steady bat with 9 HR, 6 SB, and .245 AVG.
| Name | Initial Roster% | Final Roster% | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Yastrzemski CF SF | 38% | 45% | 7% |
| Tommy Pham LF ARI | 37% | 43% | 6% |
| J.D. Davis 3B SF | 36% | 38% | 2% |
| Max Kepler RF MIN | 36% | 37% | 1% |
| Logan O’Hoppe C LAA | 29% | 33% | 4% |
| Mark Canha RF MIL | 28% | 30% | 2% |
| Willi Castro LF MIN | 25% | 30% | 5% |
| Evan Carter CF TEX | 25% | 29% | 4% |
| Pete Crow-Armstrong CF CHC | 22% | 30% | 8% |
| Chris Taylor LF LAD | 21% | 24% | 3% |
| Bo Naylor C CLE | 21% | 22% | 1% |
| Ceddanne Rafaela CF BOS | 19% | 20% | 1% |
| Randal Grichuk LF LAA | 18% | 19% | 1% |
| Luis Matos CF SF | 17% | 18% | 1% |
| Heston Kjerstad CF BAL | 16% | 21% | 5% |
| Nelson Velazquez RF KC | 15% | 18% | 3% |
| DJ Stewart RF NYM | 14% | 16% | 2% |
| Ryan Noda 1B OAK | 12% | 13% | 1% |
| Luis Campusano C SD | 10% | 12% | 2% |
| Connor Wong C BOS | 9% | 10% | 1% |
| Wilyer Abreu CF BOS | 8% | 10% | 2% |
| Elehuris Montero 1B COL | 6% | 8% | 2% |
| Matt Vierling RF DET | 6% | 7% | 1% |
| Andruw Monasterio 3B MIL | 6% | 7% | 1% |
| Edward Olivares LF KC | 3% | 8% | 5% |
| Robbie Grossman LF TEX | 3% | 5% | 2% |
| Estevan Florial CF NYY | 3% | 4% | 1% |
| Aaron Hicks CF BAL | 2% | 5% | 3% |
| Jacob Young CF WAS | 1% | 4% | 3% |
Starters
Michael King: As a starter, he has a 1.93 ERA (2.67 xFIP), 12.3 K/9, and 1.16 WHIP. One key has been leaning into his sinker (43 usage in starts, 5% SwStr%, 53% GB%). Might face Toronto twice to end the season.
Reese Olson: He faces the Dodgers this week but the Royals the final week. While I’d ignore this week’s matchup, hold him for the final week. On the season, he has a respectable 4.30 ERA, 8.9 K/9, and 1.14 WHIP.
Zack Littell: He’s likely only going to make two starts over the last two weeks with both being against Toronto. He’s been serviceable with the Rays (4.06 ERA, 7.4 K/9, 0.7 BB/9) but might be ignored over the final two weeks depending on the league’s depth.
Sawyer Gipson-Long: In two starts, the 25-year-old has a 1.80 ERA, 14.4 K/9, and 1.99 xFIP. The White Sox and Angels have swung-and-missed at everything he’s thrown with his sinker, change, and slider having a 16% or higher swinging-strike-rate. He has had decent swinging-strike rates in AAA.
Pitch: SwStr%
SL: 25%
CH: 21%
SI: 10% (78% GB%)
FF: 8%
CT: 5%
He looks to be lined up for starts against Oakland and Cleveland. Worth a shot based on talent and schedule.
Adrian Houser: I tried to add Colin Rea last week for the two-step Houser gets this week (at St. Louis and Miami). In his first game off the IL, Houser lasted 5 IP and threw 83 pitches for the Win. He leaned into his sinker (5% SwStr%, 54% GB%). On the season, he has a 4.53 ERA (4.30 xFIP), 7.7 K/9, and 1.46 WHIP (.336 BABIP). Acceptable streaming option.
Keaton Winn: One of the more talented pitchers available (4.50 ERA, 3.70 xFIP, 7.9 K/9, and 1.00 WHIP as a starter) but has the Dodgers next week and the Padres the week after that. He has been increasing his workload over the last few games.
IP, Pitches
4.0, 67
5.0, 70
6.0, 80
John Means: In his return from Tommy John surgery, Means lasted 5 IP (75 pitches) allowing 3 ER and 2 HR while striking out only one batter. His pitch velocities were fine while throwing his changeup (39% usage) more than his four-seamer (33% usage). He might move to the bullpen and the Orioles go with a five-man rotation. If everything stays as is, Means faces the Astros and Guardians next week.
Ben Lively 라이블리: The Reds rotation is up in the air and it seems like Lively will have to face the Twins but the other matchups are reasonable (PIT, CLE, STL). Managers haven’t been able to count on Lively with him posting a 5.22 ERA (4.39 xFIP), 8.1 K/9, and 1.31 WHIP. Lively’s major issue is his 2.1 HR/9.
Cal Quantrill: OK, he has a two-start week against the Royals and Orioles to end his season (no starts the last week, six-man rotation, five-game week). While his ERA has been great since returning (1.50 ERA, 5.96 xFIP) none of his skills have improved with his walk rate going from 3.0 BB/9 to 4.0 BB/9.
Tylor Megill: Two starts coming up against the Phillies. While he has improved from the first half to the second half (6% K%-BB% to 11% K%-BB%), it’s not enough for me to take a chance on these two matchups.
Sean Newcomb: Newcomb is interesting based solely on his availability (everywhere) and schedule (Mariners this week with the Twins and Angels next week). So far this season, he only has two starts that lasted four (62 pitches), and three (79) innings. He’s struggled with walks (5.4 BB/9) but not strikeouts (10.2 K/9). I think the right play would be to add and bench this week hoping for an improvement and if I need a hail Mary the last week, I have him as an option.
JP Sears: Struggling in the second half with a 5.28 ERA (5.39 xFIP), 7.9 K/9, and 1.55 WHIP. While he ends the season with the Mariners, Tigers, and Angels, his skills have been taking a major hit. Paul Blackburn is a better option.
Touki Toussaint. In 71 IP this season, he has 51 walks. And there has been no improvement (6.3 BB/9 in 2H). He lines up for two more starts against Boston and Arizona.
Ryne Nelson: The current demand might be from his current two-step with two starts against the Yankees and Astros to end the season. Nelson has been horrible all season (5.53 ERA, 5.9 K/9, 1.44 WHIP) and there is no reason to use him this week.
José Butto: He lines up for a two-start week against Miami and Philly this week with another start against Philly in the final week. As a starter, he has a 6.9 K/9, 6.0 BB/9, and 51% GB%. The walks are value killer. His 3.46 ERA seems reasonable but it comes with a 5.23 xFIP.
| Name | Initial Roster% | Final Roster% | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| John Means SP BAL | 35% | 41% | 6% |
| Michael King RP NYY | 34% | 44% | 10% |
| JP Sears SP OAK | 29% | 32% | 3% |
| Zack Littell SP TB | 26% | 32% | 6% |
| Cal Quantrill SP CLE | 24% | 33% | 9% |
| Reese Olson SP DET | 21% | 27% | 6% |
| Tylor Megill SP NYM | 15% | 16% | 1% |
| Ben Lively SP CIN | 13% | 14% | 1% |
| Ryne Nelson SP ARI | 12% | 14% | 2% |
| Touki Toussaint SP CHW | 8% | 11% | 3% |
| Adrian Houser SP MIL | 7% | 8% | 1% |
| Jose Butto SP NYM | 1% | 5% | 4% |
| Keaton Winn RP SF | 1% | 4% | 3% |
| Sawyer Gipson-Long SP DET | 0% | 4% | 4% |
| Sean Newcomb RP OAK | 0% | 1% | 1% |
Relievers: Saves-based ranks
Trevor May: Below-average reliever who is the closer.
Adam Ottavino: Average reliever who is the closer or is sharing the role.
Julian Merryweather: Good reliever who is likely the closer.
Chris Martin: Good reliever who may be the closer (no Red Sox Saves since Jansen went on the IL).
Tyler Kinley: Below-average reliever who is the closer.
Bryan Shaw: OK reliever who might be the closer.
Matt Brash: Great reliever who is the backup closer.
Robert Stephenson: Good reliever who is the backup closer.
Shintaro Fujinami: Good reliever who is the backup closer.
Kirby Yates: OK reliever who is the backup closer.
Colin Poche: OK reliever who is a couple steps away from closing.
Kyle Hurt: Good starter in AAA (13.5 K/9, 3.09 ERA, 1.03 WHIP) for the Dodgers but he was promoted for bullpen help and then demoted.
| Name | Initial Roster% | Final Roster% | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| John Means SP BAL | 35% | 41% | 6% |
| Michael King RP NYY | 34% | 44% | 10% |
| JP Sears SP OAK | 29% | 32% | 3% |
| Zack Littell SP TB | 26% | 32% | 6% |
| Cal Quantrill SP CLE | 24% | 33% | 9% |
| Reese Olson SP DET | 21% | 27% | 6% |
| Tylor Megill SP NYM | 15% | 16% | 1% |
| Ben Lively SP CIN | 13% | 14% | 1% |
| Ryne Nelson SP ARI | 12% | 14% | 2% |
| Touki Toussaint SP CHW | 8% | 11% | 3% |
| Adrian Houser SP MIL | 7% | 8% | 1% |
| Jose Butto SP NYM | 1% | 5% | 4% |
| Keaton Winn RP SF | 1% | 4% | 3% |
| Sawyer Gipson-Long SP DET | 0% | 4% | 4% |
| Sean Newcomb RP OAK | 0% | 1% | 1% |
Jeff, one of the authors of the fantasy baseball guide,The Process, writes for RotoGraphs, The Hardball Times, Rotowire, Baseball America, and BaseballHQ. He has been nominated for two SABR Analytics Research Award for Contemporary Analysis and won it in 2013 in tandem with Bill Petti. He has won four FSWA Awards including on for his Mining the News series. He's won Tout Wars three times, LABR twice, and got his first NFBC Main Event win in 2021. Follow him on Twitter @jeffwzimmerman.
Thank you. These are so helpful.