Waiver Wire Report (Week 23)
In the article, I cover the players using CBS’s (about 40% or less initial roster rate) and Yahoo’s ADD/DROP rates. Both hosting sites have the option for daily and weekly waiver wire adds. CBS uses a weekly change while Yahoo looks at the last 24 hours. Yahoo is a great snapshot of right now while CBS ensures hot targets from early in the week aren’t missed. The players are ordered for redraft leagues by my rest-of-season preference grouped by starters, relievers, and hitters.
Batters
Tommy Pham: He bats third in Arizona with balanced production (13 HR, 15 SB, .264 AVG).
Pablo Reyes: It’s getting tough to ignore Reyes with his .316 AVG, 2 HR, and 5 SB in just 149 PA. The Red Sox have noticed with Reyes starting in 18 of the last 19 games.
Parker Meadows: The projections hate Meadows (~.650 OPS talent). In AAA, he posted a 95.5 iEV which points to around a below-average bat with high-teens home run power. It’s tough to ignore Meadows because in 17 PA, he has a .308 AVG (.429 BABIP), 23% BB% (previous high is 11%), and 1.163 OPS. With his ability to play a good center field, he will get a decent run to show what he can do in the majors (four straight starts in center).
Noelvi Marte: He stole three bases so far in 20 PA while posting a .633 OPS. Started five of six games, all at third base, since being promoted.
Brent Rooker: Starts every game while batting cleanup with 22 HR and .248 AVG on the season.
Adam Duvall: He was playing every day but with the promotion of Abreu, the outfield has four guys fighting over three spots. Duvall continues to be a nice source of power with 14 HR in 254 PA.
Jose Siri: While the 24 HR and 10 SB are nice, his .224 AVG (37% K%) is a drag on his roto value.
Wilyer Abreu: The 24-year-old prospect was solid in AAA with 22 HR, 8 SB, and a .274 AVG. A .556 BABIP has him looking great in the majors (.462/.533/.846) but he remains a well well-rounded option. One issue he’ll need to deal with is that the Red Sox (see Duvall) have four outfielders for just the three spots. There is a chance Abreu sits every fourth day.
Osleivis Basabe: I was dismissive of Basabe when he was first called up but he’s starting to take off. The key has been dropping his strikeout rate from 33% to 19%. He’s putting quite a few balls on the ground (57% GB%) but he has hit a home run.
Nolan Schanuel: He is producing as advertised with all contact (.348 AVG, 13% K%, 23% BB%) and no power (.000 ISO, 58% GB%).
Brendan Rodgers: He’ll be at home next week facing the Braves and Blue Jays for six games. He’s been blah since coming off the IL (.229 AVG, 0 HR, 0 SB). I’m not sure what he actually does anymore. He would be quite a bit lower if he were to be on the road.
Masyn Winn: I’m not sold the 21-year-old is ready for the majors (.423 OPS). Teams are feeding him a steady stream of non-fastballs and he has yet to walk while hitting ninth.
Michael Busch: Since being recalled to fill in for J.D. Martinez, he has started three of four games. While he dominated AAA (24 HR, 3 SB, 1.047 OPS, I rank him the fifth-best hitter in AAA), he has struggled in the majors (31% K%, .570 OPS, 58% GB%).
DJ Stewart: He has taken over the Mets right field job, well maybe just the strong side of it. The 29-year-old started in eight of the last nine games and split the two lefty starters. In fewer than 100 PA, Stewart has hit .247/.325/.548 with 6 HR and 1 SB.
Ryan Noda: He mfay just be starting against righties with five on the schedule next week (3/2). He provides some power (12 HR in 361 PA) with little AVG (.238 AVG, 33% K%).
Carter Kieboom: The Nats are giving Kieboom another chance with two starts in a row at third base while batting fifth. He’s taking advantage of the opportunity with 2 HR in his first 11 PA. Our projections are not impressed with the 25-year-old putting his value around an MLB replacement player. In roto leagues, his value takes a major hit because he’ll probably not steal a base.
Everson Pereira: The 22-year-old hits the ball hard (115 maxV in AAA, 112 maxEV in eight MLB batted balls). Nothing else pops with a 44% MLB K% (~30% K% at all MiLB stops) and ~50% GB% talent. At least he has made four straight starts in left field.
Josh Rojas: Strong side platoon bat with Dylan Moore. Since joining the Mariners, he is hitting .291/.328/.436 (.350 BABIP) with 2 HR and 3 SB in 58 PA. Faces four righties next week (2/2).
Elvis Andrus: Playing all the time and currently at Coors. His lack of talent (5 HR, 11 SB, .239 AVG) may not be worth keeping next week depending on the waiver wire options.
Mauricio Dubón: I’m not sure why Dubon is being added since he’s a part-time bench bat (five starts in the last 10 games) with limited production (.683 OPS).
Brandon Belt: While he is in a nice run of righties, next week, he is scheduled to only face two (1/1).
Liover Peguero: Peguero was playing second baseball every game (.250 AVG, 5 HR, and 4 SB in 97 PA) but Ji Hwan Bae is now off the IL so Peguero is only starting against only lefties (.811 OPS vs LHP, .727 vs RHP).
Harold Ramírez: He normally starts against only lefties and the Rays only face two (1/1) next week.
Stone Garrett: A fractured fibula will have him out for the rest of the 2023 season.
Catchers
Mitch Garver: Garver (11 HR, .274 AVG) with 10 straight starts, three at catcher.
Logan O’Hoppe: He’s struggling (.527 OPS) since coming off the IL. He is still worth taking a shot on.
Gabriel Moreno: Started in nine of the last 11 games while crushing everything in the second half (.367/.392/.653 in 43 PA).
Hitting Prospects
Jackson Holliday: Across three minor league levels, the 19-year-old has hit .330/.452/.520 with 10 HR and 21 SB in 458 PA.
Dylan Crews: Across three minor league levels, the 21-year-old has hit .346/.424/.603 with 5 HR and 3 SB in 96 PA.
| Name | Initial Roster% | Final Roster% | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| Adam Duvall CF BOS | 38% | 43% | 5% |
| Jackson Holliday SS BAL | 36% | 38% | 2% |
| Masyn Winn SS STL | 35% | 40% | 5% |
| Harold Ramirez DH TB | 35% | 39% | 4% |
| Mitch Garver C TEX | 33% | 38% | 5% |
| Brent Rooker DH OAK | 32% | 35% | 3% |
| Tommy Pham LF ARI | 31% | 38% | 7% |
| Logan O’Hoppe C LAA | 30% | 31% | 1% |
| Gabriel Moreno C ARI | 27% | 29% | 2% |
| Jose Siri CF TB | 26% | 27% | 1% |
| Mauricio Dubon 2B HOU | 25% | 29% | 4% |
| Noelvi Marte SS CIN | 24% | 31% | 7% |
| Nolan Schanuel 1B LAA | 17% | 29% | 12% |
| Michael Busch 3B LAD | 15% | 20% | 5% |
| Brandon Belt DH TOR | 12% | 16% | 4% |
| Brendan Rodgers 2B COL | 12% | 15% | 3% |
| Josh Rojas 2B SEA | 11% | 15% | 4% |
| Dylan Crews CF WAS | 11% | 13% | 2% |
| Everson Pereira LF NYY | 10% | 18% | 8% |
| Stone Garrett LF WAS | 10% | 14% | 4% |
| Ryan Noda 1B OAK | 10% | 11% | 1% |
| Elvis Andrus 2B CHW | 7% | 11% | 4% |
| Liover Peguero 2B PIT | 7% | 9% | 2% |
| Osleivis Basabe SS TB | 6% | 11% | 5% |
| Pablo Reyes SS BOS | 4% | 11% | 7% |
| Parker Meadows CF DET | 2% | 7% | 5% |
| Carter Kieboom 3B WAS | 2% | 3% | 1% |
| Wilyer Abreu CF BOS | 1% | 7% | 6% |
| DJ Stewart RF NYM | 0% | 4% | 4% |
Starters
Zack Littell: In 35 IP as a starter, he has a 3.57 ERA, 7.6 K/9, 0.5 BB/9, and 1.13 WHIP. He’s leaving no doubts.
Cristopher Sánchez: He has a 8.2 K/9, 1.5 BB/9, and 58% GB%. Logan Webb has a 8.4 K/9, 1.4 BB/9, and 61% GB%.
Zack Thompson: Since the addition of his slider/cutter, he has a 10.7 K/9, 1.10 WHIP, and 2.57 ERA (2.56 xFIP). As close to a must roster who is really available.
Jordan Wicks: Wicks debuted on Saturday where he went 5 IP with 9 K, 1 BB, and just 1 ER against the Pirates. Wicks got nine of his 13 Whiffs off his changeup with his cutter getting three. He should be added in all leagues to see if the production continues.
Brandon Pfaadt: Started putting everything together in the second half with an 18% K%-BB%, 3.48 ERA, and 1.04 WHIP. Two changes for him are throwing strikes (3.5 BB/9 to 2.2 BB/9) and a new sinker (10% usage, 7% SwStr%, 55% GB%).
Paul Blackburn: He’s in a nice two-step (vs KC, at CWS). He is posting some decent numbers (4.00 ERA, 4.06 xFIP, 9.2 K/9) with the exception of a .351 BABIP leading to a 1.45 WHIP.
Hyun Jin Ryu 류현진: He’s not 1.89 ERA good (.255 BABIP, 0.5 HR/9), but still decent as a 4.00 talent.
Javier Assad: Assad (3.13 ERA, 4.47 xFIP, 3.8 BB/9, 93% LOB%) had nearly the perfect two-step with Detroit and Pittsburgh this week. Next week he goes to Cincinnati and that will be a sit.
Brandon Williamson: A 4.50 ERA talent who has two starts next week at the Giants and home against the Cubs.
Alex Faedo: In a tough two-step (vs CHC, vs HOU). His 7.9 K/9 and 2.3 BB/9 are decent, but his 1.8 HR/9 (38% GB%) have his ERA up at 4.91 (54% LOB%) while his WHIP is down at 0.97.
Tanner Houck: He struggled in his return from the IL with his four-seam fastball down almost 1 mph and allowing 3 BB (42% Ball%, 5.2 equivalent BB/9) in 5 IP. Roster-and-bench.
Dakota Hudson: A solid 4.50+ ERA pitch-to-contact talent who could be streamed against the Pirates next week.
Kyle Harrison: A high strikeout starter with a 14.4 K/9 in AAA and 5 K in 3 IP (65 pitches) in his MLB debut. The red flag with him is how short he goes in games. In 21 starts, the longest he threw was 5 IP just once. He leans heavily into his fastball (72% usage).
Ryan Pepiot: After finding the strike zone, he has shoved in AAA and the majors (2.41 xFIP). The problem now is that he was demoted back to AAA and his next MLB start is up in the air.
Allan Winans: While a .364 BABIP has his ERA and WHIP inflated, all his ERA estimators are under 4.00. It’s tough to ignore an arm with a 10.3 K/9 and 2.3 BB/9. Right now, he’s down in AAA until he is needed next.
Drew Rom: Rom has always struggled with walks (minors: 4.6 BB/9 in 2023, 3.5 BB/9 in 2022). In his major league debut, he walked four (44% Ball%, equivalent of 6.2 BB/9) in less than 4 IP with 6 ER. On top of his struggles with the strike zone, his average fastball velocity was under 90 mph. Pass.
Patrick Corbin: I guess managers might be looking at the 2.70 ERA in August (.167 BABIP, 100% LOB%) with a 5.14 xFIP via a 4.2 BB/9. Ignore.
Pedro Avila: Got a spot start for the Padres. The 26-year-old continues to struggle with walks (3.6 BB/9 on the season, 5.4 BB/9 as a starter).
Pitching Prospect
Paul Skenes: Just three games and four innings so far but all reports are good on this season’s sixth pick.
| Name | Initial Roster% | Final Roster% | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hyun-Jin Ryu SP TOR | 40% | 51% | 11% |
| Cristopher Sanchez SP PHI | 38% | 39% | 1% |
| Brandon Williamson SP CIN | 31% | 35% | 4% |
| Brandon Pfaadt SP ARI | 30% | 32% | 2% |
| Dakota Hudson RP STL | 25% | 27% | 2% |
| Zack Littell RP TB | 24% | 26% | 2% |
| Javier Assad RP CHC | 23% | 42% | 19% |
| Paul Blackburn SP OAK | 22% | 39% | 17% |
| Kyle Harrison SP SF | 21% | 37% | 16% |
| Tanner Houck SP BOS | 15% | 17% | 2% |
| Patrick Corbin SP WAS | 14% | 16% | 2% |
| Paul Skenes SP PIT | 14% | 16% | 2% |
| Ryan Pepiot P LAD | 13% | 26% | 13% |
| Allan Winans SP ATL | 7% | 13% | 6% |
| Alex Faedo SP DET | 6% | 10% | 4% |
| Jordan Wicks RP CHC | 4% | 7% | 3% |
| Zack Thompson RP STL | 4% | 5% | 1% |
| Drew Rom SP STL | 1% | 3% | 2% |
| Pedro Avila RP SD | 0% | 2% | 2% |
Relievers: Save-based ranks.
Yennier Cano: Great reliever who is most likely now the closer.
Jason Foley: Decent reliever who might be the closer or is sharing the role.
JoJo Romero: Good reliever who is sharing the closer’s role.
Matt Brash Great reliever who is sharing the closer’s role.
Brusdar Graterol: Good reliever who is the backup closer.
Chris Martin and John Schreiber: Good relievers who looked like potential closers for a day or two.
Tyler Holton: Good reliever who is a couple of steps away from closing.
Andrew Kittredge: Good reliever who is a few steps away from closing.
Drew Smyly: While a reasonable reliever 3.75 ERA (2.89 xFIP), Smyly is unrosterable as a starter 5.40 ERA (4.97 xFIP). With the promotion of Wicks (above), Smyly is no longer in the rotation.
Ryan Yarbrough: The Dodgers are using him in long relief where he was three Wins in his last five August relief appearances.
Sean Manaea: Working as a long reliever where he has been great (10.9 K/9, 1.08 WHIP, 4.13 ERA, 3.42 xFIP).
John Means: Returning from TJS. Normally a starter, but reports have him bullpen-bound.
| Name | Initial Roster% | Final Roster% | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| Drew Smyly SP CHC | 37% | 39% | 2% |
| Yennier Cano RP BAL | 32% | 36% | 4% |
| Matt Brash RP SEA | 29% | 34% | 5% |
| Brusdar Graterol RP LAD | 21% | 23% | 2% |
| John Means SP BAL | 18% | 23% | 5% |
| Sean Manaea RP SF | 17% | 20% | 3% |
| Jason Foley RP DET | 10% | 15% | 5% |
| Ryan Yarbrough RP LAD | 9% | 11% | 2% |
| JoJo Romero RP STL | 6% | 9% | 3% |
| Chris Martin RP BOS | 5% | 7% | 2% |
| John Schreiber RP BOS | 4% | 5% | 1% |
| Andrew Kittredge RP TB | 1% | 3% | 2% |
| Tyler Holton RP DET | 1% | 3% | 2% |
Jeff, one of the authors of the fantasy baseball guide,The Process, writes for RotoGraphs, The Hardball Times, Rotowire, Baseball America, and BaseballHQ. He has been nominated for two SABR Analytics Research Award for Contemporary Analysis and won it in 2013 in tandem with Bill Petti. He has won four FSWA Awards including on for his Mining the News series. He's won Tout Wars three times, LABR twice, and got his first NFBC Main Event win in 2021. Follow him on Twitter @jeffwzimmerman.
“ I rank him the fifth-best hitter in AAA”
Have to ask who the top four are