Waiver Wire Report (Week 22)

In the article, I cover the players using CBS’s (about 40% or less initial roster rate) and Yahoo’s ADD/DROP rates. Both hosting sites have the option for daily and weekly waiver wire adds. CBS uses a weekly change while Yahoo looks at the last 24 hours. Yahoo is a great snapshot of right now while CBS ensures hot targets from early in the week aren’t missed. The players are ordered for redraft leagues by my rest-of-season preference grouped by starters, relievers, and hitters.

Batters

Tommy Pham: A balanced bat (12 HR, 14 SB, .264 AVG) while hitting third most days.

Kerry Carpenter: Crushing it (16 HR, .282 AVG in 293 PA).

Zack Gelof: I don’t believe in him maintaining a .352 BABIP (.292 AVG) but the power (8 HR) and speed (7 SB) look legit.

Stone Garrett: The Nationals have finally unleashed Stone Garrett allowing him everyday at-bats. The 27-year-old has a nice balance of power (9 HR), speed (3 SB), and batting average (.279). This might be the last week he’s on the wire.

Nelson Velázquez: Started in six of seven games since being recalled with 4 HR in those six games. For this season, the 24-year-old’s key is having just a 24% K% even though the league is feeding him a ton of non-fastballs.

Max Kepler: Continues to play only against righties and crush them. He is scheduled to only face three righties next week.

Charlie Blackmon: Blackmon came off the IL and is hitting at the top of Colorado’s lineup. Probably worth streaming at home.

Andruw Monasterio: Steady contributor (.268 AVG, 3 HR, 5 SB) who is qualified at second and third.

Liover Peguero: Eight straight starts with some legit power (5 HR, .233 ISO, 110 maxEV) in just 80 PA for the 22-year-old. The middle infielder has a nice balance of power and speed with a reasonable batting average.

Noelvi Marte: Of the just promoted prospects, I’m most interested in Marte. Here are his Steamer600 (ROS) projection comps with Masyn Winn showing up as a comp:

I ranked Marte high because he showed more power in AAA (89.4 avgEV, 113.8 maxEV) and acceptable contact ability (75.9% Contact%).

Also, it seems like the Reds are going to let him play every day at third base.

Noelvi Marte will wear #16 and David Bell says he will play third base on an everyday basis

— Votto De La Cruz (@EvilJoeyVotto) August 19, 2023

Masyn Winn: Winn got promoted by the Cardinals this week. The 21-year-old is getting a ton of respect on prospect lists, but some of his best traits won’t translate to the fantasy game. Most prospect rankings have him with an 80-grade arm and a plus defense. Those don’t matter. He has some speed and bat-to-ball skills. Here are his AAA stats.

Masyn Winn in AAA (min 200 BIP, 153 Batters):

EV: 87.6 mph (52 Percentile)
90th EV: 101.5 mph (26)
Max EV: 110.1 mph (58)
Barrel%: 3.1% (24)

Z-Contact%: 87.9% (84)
Z-Swing%: 59.8% (15)
O-Contact%: 71.0% (91)
O-Swing%: 31.0% (41)
Whiff%: 18.6% (88)pic.twitter.com/A6We7yzyVc https://t.co/Y6d1Ltlvw1

— Thomas Nestico (@TJStats) August 18, 2023

An 87 mph avgEV gives him a 34% chance of being an average MLB hitter this season. I know he can grow into more power, but these rankings are for just this season and I expect to be disappointed.

Also, his Steamer600 (ROS) projection comps are grim.

Nolan Schanuel: Holy cow, Steamer loves this season’s draftee with only 96 PA in the minors before his promotion. Here are his Steamer600 (ROS) comps that put him as a top-100 player.

Before anyone goes and spends what is left of their FAAB budget on him, here are some additional numbers. In AA, he posted an 84 mph avgEV and a 104 maxEV. These numbers are similar to the power profiles of Whit Merrifield (85, 105) and Steven Kwan (86, 106).

His numbers in college weren’t better since in he never hit a ball over 100 mph in the Cape Cod league.

Agree and it’s not isolated to just the minor league sample with wood bats. He had a fairly large Cape sample and didn’t have a BBE above 99 MPH.

— Geoff Pontes (@GeoffPontesBA) August 18, 2023

Going through his profile, I feel that Alec Bohm might be his upside (corner bat, decent AVG, some power and speed) this season. Right now, the range of outcomes is large.

Ramón Laureano: Even though Cleveland is giving him a chance to play, his AVG and OBP are substandard (.208 AVG, .273 OBP) but he provides some speed (9 SB) and power (6 HR). The biggest issue will be how long Cleveland can continue to roster a sub-.650 OPS talent.

Lawrence Butler: The prospect seems to be on the strong side of a platoon and led off on Friday. Interesting his projections are similar to Winn and Marte, power and speed but a possible batting average sink. He’s not getting much hype as the other two and could be added on the cheap.

Wade Meckler: Batting second and playing center field. Known for his ability to put the ball in play, he had a 53% K% in 15 PA with every pitch type giving him issues. Compared with the other callups, he might be the least desirable option but could end up being the best one.

Pablo Reyes: Playing and hitting for a .307 AVG with the Red Sox. He does have a couple of steals and homers in 123 PA.

Michael Massey: He’s been better since the break (.594 OPS vs .713 OPS) but is not a difference-maker. A volume play since he’s batting third every game.

Elvis Andrus: Starting every game while providing some steals (9 SB in 306 PA).

Cade Marlowe: He only starts about two-thirds of the time. I’m not sure if he’ll ever have league-average power, but the rest of his profile is enticing (14% BB%, 28 combined SB, .274 AVG).

J.P. Martínez: So far, he has started in six of seven games while holding his own (.762 OPS). The 27-year-old isn’t a highly rated prospect but he does steal bases (33 SB in AAA).

Jace Peterson: Strong-side platoon bat with Buddy Kennedy. While he stole bases with Oakland, there is no other production coming from him.

Enrique Hernández: A super sub who is not an offensive contributor.

Osleivis Basabe: He is now Tampa Bay’s everyday shortstop but is struggling (33% K%, .053 ISO). I’m not sure how long Tampa can keep him in the majors.

Nicky Lopez: With Albies on the IL, Lopez is getting a run at second base. He could be worth streaming for steals next week before he heads back to the bench.

Dominic Canzone: He’s struggling with the Mariners (.559 OPS) as teams feed him a steady diet of non-fastballs (35% fastballs seen). Also, he is not playing regularly (started in six of 10 games).

Jonathan Aranda: A decent talent but doesn’t start (promoted on Tuesday). Unrosterable.

Catchers

Mitch Garver: He was catching all the time but Jonah Heim came off the IL so it looks to be in a 50/50 split for now.

Logan O’Hoppe: He is off the IL and has a legit chance to provide a spark for the team.

Hitting Prospects

Jackson Holliday: The 19-year-old is hitting .340/.400/.532 with 3 HR and 1 SB in AA.

Vaughn Grissom: I’m guessing some managers were hoping he would be added because of the Albies injury. They were wrong.

Starters

Zack Littell: Great waiver wire option for this time in the year. 7.8 K/9, 1.1 BB/9, and 3.99 ERA (3.64 xFIP). Enjoy.

Cole Irvin: In the second half, Irvin has a 10.6 K/9 and 2.9 BB/9 because he has been leaning more into his cutter (19% usage, 14% SwStr%).

Tanner Houck: He comes off the IL and straight into the fire with a two-start week against the Astros and Dodgers. While I might not start Houck this week, it might be a nice time to roster him. His 5.05 ERA might scare off some people but his 8.5 K/9, 3.81 xFIP, and 1.26 WHIP point to better days ahead.

Zack Thompson: Started against the Mets for this season’s second start and allowed 2 ER, 6 H, 1 BB while striking out five in 5 IP. In his last four games (13 IP combined), he has a 12.5 K/9, 1.4 BB/9, and 2.77 ERA (1.96 xFIP). He introduced a devastating slider/cutter (28% SwStr%) are here are the pitch’s encouraging comps.

He might be a must-add with a start against Pittsburgh coming up.

Mike Clevinger: Since coming off the IL, he has a 7.0 K/9, 2.4 BB/9, 30% GB%, and 1.57 ERA (4.96 xFIP). The disconnect between the ERA and xFIP is from a 0.4 HR/9 with the extremely low groundball rate. The strikeouts and walks are reasonable but don’t be surprised if he gets lit up by home runs at some point. Over his last two starts, he limited himself to just three pitches (fastball, change, and sldier) after throwing up to six in some games.

Alex Faedo: In two August starts, he has a 10.2 K/9 and 2.8 BB/9. No one in this ranking has anything close to that. The key for him is to throw strikes.

Dakota Hudson: Hudson does a great job of mixing up flyball (cutter and slider) and groundball (fastballs) pitches to generate weak contact (.280 BABIP). He doesn’t strike out many batters (5.9 K/9) so he relies on limiting hard contact.

Paul Blackburn: He has one of the best two steps this upcoming with a home game versus the Royals and on the road against the White Sox. While he’s posted a decent ERA (4.09) and strikeout rate (9.2 K/9), a .360 BABIP and 3.2 BB/9, he has a nearly unrosterable 1.50 WHIP.

Jesse Scholtens: In three August starts, he has a 17% K%-BB% which is comparable to the full-season values of Snell and Darvish. The biggest change is him throwing his curveball (13% SwStr%) more often.

Hyun Jin Ryu 류현진: I “suppose” the .238 BABIP and 0.6 HR/9 will continue so he can maintain a 2.57 ERA and 1.07 WHIP even though he has a 4.50 xFIP and 5.11 SIERA. Pass.

Javier Assad: A .257 BABIP is suppressing his 3.11 ERA (4.60 xFIP) and 1.25 WHIP (3.8 BB/9). As a starter, he has a 5.5 BB/9 and 3.2 BB/9. He’s throwing six pitches and only his slider has a swinging-strike rate over 10%.

José Quintana: He’s surviving off weak contact (.278 BABIP, 0.3 HR/9). I can’t roster starters with just 6.3 K/9 and 3.5 BB/9. The walks almost have his WHIP in the unrosterable area.

Johnny Cueto: He’s allowing a ton of home runs (2.0 HR/9, 34% GB%) since coming off the IL. His results and talent have him as a 4.50 ERA starter.

John Means: He only has two starts so far (1.1 IP, 2 IP) while returning from Tommy John surgery.

Strong rehab outing from Orioles LHP John Means yesterday as he gets closer to returning from Tommy John surgery.

2 IP, 1 H, 0 ER, 0 BB, 2 K (28 P/17 Strikes)

Fastball sat 91-92 mph, mixed in several sliders in the mid 80s and changeups in the low 80s.

🎥: @GoSquirrels pic.twitter.com/GaNvqTOVkv

— Aram Leighton (@AramLeighton8) August 11, 2023

His fastball velocity was in line when he was a bit lower than the 93 to 94 mph of his peak seasons.

David Peterson: Since rejoining the rotation, Peterson has a 2.61 ERA but his walk and strikeout rate are identical at 9.6. A 9.6 BB/9!!?? The walks are leading to 1.84 WHIP. Hopefully, he can get the walks under control.

Brandon Williamson: A .252 BABIP is keeping his 4.33 ERA from being worse. Everything he does is below average (7.8 K/9, 3.4 BB/9, 35% GB%). Maybe a streamer on the road at Pittsburgh.

Emerson Hancock: So far, he has faced 41 batters and only struck out four of them. Yeah! His fastball velocity is below average with his non-fastballs getting below average results. While he threw his four-seamer almost 50% of the time, he has thrown his sinker 15% of the time for an 86% GB% and 12 SwStr%.

The comps on the pitcher like the sinker’s groundball nature but doesn’t think the sinker will continue to miss bats. Ignore-but-monitor bin.

Matthew Liberatore: After Liberatore’s “signature” game, he sh%* the bed in the next start allowing 6 ER, 10 H, and 3 BB in 4 IP. He now posts a 1.64 WHIP (3.8 BB/9) and 6.12 ERA (5.36 xFIP). Go back to ignoring him.

Carlos Carrasco: He has been horrible this season (6.40 ERA, 1.62 WHIP) and those results have continued into August (6.43 ERA, 1.50 WHIP).

Relievers: Saves-based ranks

Note: There aren’t any Save openings besides those getting late to the Detroit change.

Jason Foley: Fine reliever who is the closer

JoJo Romero: Good reliever who could be the closer or sharing the role.

Matt Brash: Great reliever who is the backup closer.