Waiver Wire Report (Week 14)

There is not a lot out there. A few decent starters and hitters, but not much more.

In the article, I cover the players using CBS’s (about 40% or less initial roster rate) and Yahoo’s ADD/DROP rates. Both hosting sites have the option for daily and weekly waiver wire adds. CBS uses a weekly change while Yahoo looks at the last 24 hours. Yahoo is a great snapshot of right now while CBS ensures hot targets from early in the week aren’t missed. The players are ordered for redraft leagues by my rest-of-season preference grouped by starters, relievers, and hitters.

Hitters

Ramón Laureano: I’m not sure how someone on pace for 18 HR and 24 SB with a .246 AVG is available on the waiver wire.

Nico Hoerner: In roto leagues, Hoerner is a must roster with the 7 SB and .300 AVG. This season, the 25-year-old has gotten to enough power (5 HR, 108 mph Max EV) that he’s not a zero in those categories.

Jack Suwinski: He hits homers (14 in 234 PA) but little else (.212 AVG, 2 SB). If a team needs home runs and can take a hit in batting average, he’s an obvious add.

Darick Hall: Hall seems to be a Jack Suwinski clone… lots of raw power (.657 SLG, 4 HR) but a high strikeout rate (34% K%) will limit his batting average upside. Since being promoted, he has started in eight of nine games at DH while batting fourth.

Jonathan Villar: He has been the leadoff in all five games since joining the Angels but is only hitting .224/.271/.316 with 2 HR and 7 SB for the season. I might roster him for a week or two and see if he gets running (1 SB with the Angels).

Nolan Jones: Jones has started two straight in right field after hitting .311/.417/.500 with 3 HR and 4 SB in 108 AAA PA. Projections have him with 15 HR and 9 SB for a full season. I think he’s one of those guys in deeper leagues where he just needs to be cheaply rostered now and then as we figure out his talent level. Upside of 20 HR, 20 SB.

Jace Peterson: He’s a well-rounded (7 HR, 10 SB, .250 AVG), multi-position eligible (1B, 2B, 3B, OF) fantasy hitter with the only drawback being playing time. Right now, he only faces right-handed pitching. Next week the Brewers are scheduled to face only four righties.

Aaron Hicks: Hicks is part of the Yankees hitter rotation but has started in only seven of the last 10 games because he’s just hitting .240/.357/.350 with 5 HR and 9 SB. The stolen bases are nice for fantasy but that won’t get him more playing time.

Harold Ramirez: He’s started 11 of 12 games while hitting in the top half of the lineup. In 231 PA, he has 4 HR, 3 SB, and a .314 AVG. An accumulator with a decent batting average.

Hunter Dozier: Since Pasquantino was promoted, Dozier is still playing & starting (eight of the last 10 games). Dozier is just on pace for 18 HR and 4 SB. I wonder if his triple position eligibility (1B, 3B, and OF) is what has him on people’s radars.

Yandy Diaz: Diaz is about as boring of a hitter as there is with little home run power (52% GB%) and no speed (1 SB). He is a decent source of batting average (.293) and on-base (.408) while leading off (11 of the last 12 games, hit second in the other). He’s a nice bench bat as an injury or short-week fill-in.

Jake Meyers: Meyers is playing every day for a good team, but I’m not sure if he’s a fantasy difference-maker. He’s ridden a .412 BABIP to a .313 AVG to be helpful so far. Projections have him for a boring 8 HR and 3 SB rest-of-season. Bench bat at best.

David Villar: Villar hit .284/.409/.633 with 21 HR in AAA. Even though he’s started six straight at third base, he’s struggling at the plate with 10 K in 22 PA. He has it one homer.

Matt Carpenter: He’s started four straight, mainly as an Anthony Rizzo replacement. So far, he’s hitting .305/.406/.814 with 9 HR in just 70 PA. The production is nice but the issue with him is that he’s gone as long as eight games without starting. The key will be to read up and see what is the team’s plans are for him going forward.

Cavan Biggio: The rest of the hype machine is getting behind Biggio. His only fantasy value is from being qualified at 1B, 2B, 3B, and possibly OF (6 games). The only baseball value he has is his ability to get on base (.220/.356/.366) since he’s providing no home runs or stolen bases.

David Peralta: He is great when facing righties (.825 OPS vs RHP, .456 OPS vs LHP) but unrosterable against lefties, especially since he doesn’t start. Next week he is scheduled to face only three righties.

Nick Senzel: He’s producing at a full-season pace of 9 HR (.076 ISO) and 15 SB with a .258 AVG. I guess the stolen bases are helpful, but not even average in any category.

Miguel Rojas: I’m not sure why his upswing in roster rate continues. It might be the 5 SB. The first thing to do after rostering Rojas is to find a way to replace him.

Catchers

Cal Raleigh: Typical catcher, all power (11 HR), no batting average (.200).

Eric Haase: He has started five times in the last 10 games. He’s showing nice power (7 HR) and not a complete drain on batting average (.241).

Seby Zavala: His .345 AVG is fueled by a .514 BABIP in 64 PA so far. The batting average should eventually tank especially since he has a 33% K%.

Hitting Prospects

Esteury Ruiz: He’s hitting .320/.466/.495 with 4 HR and 21 SB in AAA. He already had 37 SB in AA.

Miguel Vargas: He’s hitting .293/.377/.497 with 13 HR and 9 SB in AAA.

Alec Burleson: He’s hitting .336/.380/.558 with 16 HR and 3 SB in AAA.

Gunnar Henderson: He’s hitting .270/.383/.490 with 5 HR and 3 SB in AAA.

Francisco Álvarez: He hit .277/.368/.553 with 18 HR and 0 SB in AA and has just 17 AAA PA so far.

Starting Pitchers

David Peterson: Peterson (9.7 K/9, 3.48 WHIP, 54% GB%) is a must roster in all formats at this point as long as he remains in the rotation. The only knock on him is a 3.9 BB/9.

Nick Lodolo: Lodolo is another must-roster. His 1.50 WHIP is inflated from a 3.7 BB/9 and .375 BABIP. Those two paired with his 1.4 HR/9 have his 4.19 ERA a run higher than his 3.10 xFIP and 3.17 ERA. And his 12.6 K/9 can’t be ignored.

José Quintana: Simply, he’s been good (3.33 ERA, 3.71 xFIP 1.28 WHIP, 8.2 K/9) and upped his game since June (3.27 xFIP, 9.3 K/9). While he may only have two Wins, he’s likely to get traded to a contender who could use rotation help and the chance for a Win has to increase.

Braxton Garrett: Garrett is one of the few remaining guys I’d consider adding and keeping on my roster. His 4.25 ERA could be a bit lower (3.62 xFIP) with the rest of his stats being better than league average (7.9 K/9, 2.1 BB/9, 46% GB%). His 14.6% K%-BB% is comparable to Webb, Pivetta, and Mikolas.

Mitch White: He’s been a fine starter (8.8 K/9, 1.15 WHIP, 3.38 ERA, 3.96 xFIP), and being on the Dodgers gives him a decent chance for a Win. He will be the first pitcher to be demoted once the staff gets healthy or trades for another starter.

Justin Steele: Steele’s talent and results keep bouncing around. He’s farted around with several new pitches (change and curve) but comes back to his four-seamer (7% SwStr%, 55% GB%) and slider (15% SwStr%). Excluding April, he’s posted an xFIP at or under a 3.60 xFIP each month. He’s one of the few average or better starters available.

Brayan Bello: The 23-year-old righty is up for at least one more start even though he struggled in the first one (4.0 IP, 4 ER, 2 K, 3 BB). His sinker clocked in at 97 mph and he also threw a change and slider. I’m ranking him based on the possible talent but he could be worthless if he’s demoted to the minors and remains there.

Patrick Corbin: This rank is based off changes Corbin has made over the last few weeks and not his horrible production over the past few seasons. Since the season started, he’s added 2.4 mph to his fastball and is throwing a sinker more than his four-seamer. Until May 31st, he had a 9.2% K%-BB%. Since then, they’re up to 11.6%. I’m not sure he’s worth a bench spot but it’s close.

Josh Winder: Even the rookies I’m profiling are nap-inducing (true story). He’s not striking out many batters (6.0 K/9) and relying on an 8% HR/FB% sticking. Digging a little deeper, his slider (16% SwStr%) and change (20% Swstr%) have been damn good. On the other hand, his curve (5% SwStr%) and four-seam (4% SwStr%) haven’t missed many bats. I could see him adjust his pitch mix and see improved results. He’s higher than similar pitchers based just on the unknown upside.

Andre Pallante: Pallante separates himself from the other low-strikeout pitchers featured with his 63% GB%. That many groundballs mean few homers and station-to-station baserunners leading to a reasonable 3.03 ERA (3.82 xFIP) even with the low strikeout totals. The biggest thing with him is to keep checking that he’s in the rotation with Steven Matz coming off the IL.

Jordan Lyles: Lyles has no secrets to hide in his upcoming two-step (at Cubs, at Rays). His ERA estimators have him as a low to mid-4.00’s ERA pitcher and that’s where he’s at (4.50 ERA). He gets a few more strikeouts (7.4 K/9) than those ranked under him.

Jake Odorizzi: A low-4.00’s ERA talent (6.1 K/9, 4.04 ERA, 1.32 WHIP, 4.99 xFIP) who is in the middle of a two-start week. The first start against Kansas City was disappointing (4 IP, 5 ER, 9 H, 3 K, 1 BB). His average fastball velocity was down 1 mph (92.5 to 91.5) since coming off the IL. Another low-talent streamer.

Dylan Bundy: Bundy’s roster rate is probably up for his two-starts against the White Sox (5 IP, 6 K, 1 BB, 1 ER, 0 W) and Rangers (Sunday). Bundy has changed this year going with fewer strikeouts and walks and settled into a low-4.00’s ERA pitcher.

Dean Kremer: I wrote about Kremer earlier this week on how he’s kept his ERA down. Like many players on this list, he is in the middle of two starts with the first start against Texas going horribly wrong (4.2 IP, 4 SO, 2 BB, 8 H, 5 ER) with a weekend start against the Angels. Even with the recent blowup, his ERA is still just 2.48 with his ERA estimators approaching 5.00.

Brad Keller: Keller is scheduled for two starts next week (vs DET, at TOR) and he can’t even be considered an average pitcher (5.9 K/9, 1.33 WHIP, 4.37 ERA, 4.34 xFIP). I looked over his profile and found nothing to point to any recent improvements.

Chris Flexen 플렉센: Flexen might be getting added because of a possible two-step coming up against the Nationals and Rangers. Flexen is a below-average starter (6.6 K/9, 1.40 WHIP, 4.00 ERA, 4.89 xFIP). The boys and girls at Razzball project Flexen for 0.6 Wins, 8 K, 4.64 ERA, and 1.38 ERA. The counting stats aren’t worth those ratios.

Michael Pineda: On the surface, Pineda and his 3.62 ERA and 1.18 WHIP look enticing for his two starts against Kansas City and Cleveland next week. Looking below the surface he’s a complete nightmare. A .253 BABIP is why his ERA is run under his ERA estimators. His career-low 90 mph average fastball velocity leads to his strikeout rate dropping down to 4.7 K/9. He’s always been flyball prone so it’s no surprise he has a 2.0 HR/9.

Kyle Freeland: He’s got two road starts this week and in the first one against the Dodgers, he allowed 4 ER, 6 H, and 1 BB to go with 5 K over 5.1 IP. He faces Arizona this weekend. Freeland has been decent on the road with a 3.40 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, 7.5 K/9, and 4.46 xFIP. A fine road streamer.

Mike Soroka: Soroka was close to returning but took a ball off his knee and will have his rehab halted. I could not find any reliable information on his pitch velocity to help evaluate him.

Dustin May: I’m still passing on rostering May unless I have an unused IL spot. He should begin a rehab assignment soon but will need the entire time to build himself back up. Until he starts throwing, there is no way to tell his talent level (e.g. fastball velocity, control, etc…).

Garrett Hill: Hill came into Saturday with a 1.50 ERA and 5.09 xFIP. He’s left the day with a 5.73 ERA and 5.64 xFIP. He was getting strikeouts in AA (14.6 K/9) and AAA (11.0 K/9). The strikeouts have disappeared (3.3 K/9) probably because a righty with a 91.6 mph average fastball will not miss many bats. I’m not sure of the disconnect.

Spenser Watkins: Don’t roster him until further notice.

Relievers – Saves-based ranks

Lou Trivino: OK reliever who is the closer.

Will Smith: Good reliever who shares the closer’s role.

Brett Martin: Below-average reliever who might be in a bullpen by committee. He has gotten the first two Saves.

Dennis Santana: Below-average reliever who might be in a bullpen by committee.

Matt Moore: Below-average reliever who might be in a bullpen by committee.

Brusdar Graterol: OK reliever who had the closer’s role for a bit and then got hurt (side).

Evan Phillips: Good closer who is now the backup closer.

Félix Bautista: Good reliever who is the backup closer.

John Schreiber: Decent reliever who is the backup closer.