Waiver Wire Report (8/21/22)
Again, not many available starters but plenty of hitters with some decent power hitting the wire.
In the article, I cover the players using CBS’s (about 40% or less initial roster rate) and Yahoo’s ADD/DROP rates. Both hosting sites have the option for daily and weekly waiver wire adds. CBS uses a weekly change while Yahoo looks at the last 24 hours. Yahoo is a great snapshot of right now while CBS ensures hot targets from early in the week aren’t missed. The players are ordered for redraft leagues by my rest-of-season preference grouped by starters, relievers, and hitters.
Batters
Brett Baty: The 22-year-old hit .312/.406/.544 with 19 HR in AA (26 AAA PA) and has now started three straight games at third base with Escobar and Guillorme on the IL. As long as he keeps hitting (.964 MLB OPS) I suspect he’ll stay in the majors as a regular.
Lars Nootbaar: He is literally starting every day, and on a full-season pace for 18 HR, 9 SB, and .228 AVG. He’s shown some major second-half improvement in his plate discipline. His walk rate has gone from 10% to 20% and his strikeout rate from 30% to 16%. His OPS has gone from .655 to .867.
Jake McCarthy: Another week, another high ranking for McCarthy who is on a full-season pace of 10 HR, 30 SB, and .274 AVG. I am a little worried about his playing time with Arizona calling up some prospects.
Kerry Carpenter: The 24-year-old rookie hit 30 HR in the minor and already has two in the majors. He’s started four straight games and has hit as high as fourth in the order. For those fantasy managers needing some late-season power, he is readily available.
Oscar Gonzalez: Since coming off of the IL, he has lowered his groundball rate from 55% to 41% and his OPS is up from .746 to .836. For someone with a 44% Hard Hit%, the extra balls in the air will be huge going forward.
Joey Meneses: The 30-year-old right-handed hitter is being productive in the heart of the Nats lineup (5 HR, .310 AVG). He is making a ton of contact (13% K%) unlike most power hitters. Also, he’s about to pick up outfield qualification (9 games).
Stone Garrett: The 26-year-old was great in AAA hitting .275/.332/.568 with 28 HR and 15 SB. In three straight starts since joining the team, he has hit a ball 108 mph and stole a base.
Emmanuel Rivera: He has become a valuable little third baseman who has 10 HR and a .247 AVG in just 258 PA. He’s started in eight of the last 10 games, hit second or third, and even has three appearances at first base.
Sam Haggerty: In 127 PA, Haggerty has 4 HR, 8 SB, and a .310 AVG. He’s taken a step forward by dropping his strikeout rate from 30% to 24%. The key with Haggerty right now is that he’s playing (six straight starts). If playing, a must roster in all Roto leagues.
Luis Rengifo: He’s on 600 PA pace for 16 HR, 9 SB, and a .269 AVG while being qualified at three positions. The 25-year-old should at least be a bench bat in all leagues.
Christian Arroyo: He’s been decent (.283 AVG, 5 HR, 3 SB) in 199 PA. With Story on the IL, Arroyo is getting a long run as Boston’s second baseman. At least a bench bat if playing.
Ha-Seong Kim 김하성: With Tatis out for the year, Kim will get full-time at-bats while providing respectable stats (6 HR, 8 SB, .254 AVG) at three positions (2B, SS, 3B).
Trent Grisham: Batting seventh while hitting .198/.302/.368 on the season with 15 HR and 5 SB.
Bryson Stott: The 24-year-old has been better in the second half (.293/.337/.413) by cutting his strikeout rate from 20% to 11%. He doesn’t provide much else (7 HR, 6 SB in 318). Below average bench bat.
AJ Pollock: He has leadoff for eight straight games while hitting (.281/.355/.476, 3 HR) over the last month.
Harold Ramírez: While his .328 batting average is his best trait, he does provide some power (5 HR) and speed (3 SB). The question is how much will the Rays play him (started three of the last four games)?
Paul DeJong: Since coming off the IL, he’s hitting .233/.319/.517 with 4 HR and 0 SB. He continues to be a power-only shortstop.
Elehuris Montero: He’s starting every day with half his games in Colorado. In 96 PA, he’s hitting .258/.281/.452 with 3 HR. Streamable at home.
Jake Fraley: For his career, Fraley has normally been a platoon hitter (career .773 OPS vs RHP, .433 OPS vs LHP) but did start against the last lefty starter. If he can get the extra at-bats, it’ll help accumulate counting stats, especially since he has been hitting in one of the top two lineup spots.
David Fletcher: He is just being his normal Avg and Runs producer with little in the way of power and speed. Bleh.
José Iglesias: A batting average (.313 AVG) only play with no speed or power.
Oswaldo Cabrera: I didn’t think the Yankees would play Cabrera much after promoting him but he has gotten three starts (3B, SS, OF). In AAA, the 23-year-old was hitting .262/.340/.492 with 8 HR and 10 SB in 208 PA but with a 26% K%. In 11 MLB PA, he has 5 K so far. It’ll be interesting to see how much he plays and/or stays in the majors when Stanton comes off the IL.
CJ Abrams: The 21-year-old struggled with the Padres (.605 OPS) and has been even worse with the Nationals (.358 OPS). He’s just not seeing any fastballs (38%) with the Nats and has struggled against sliders (21% SwStr%) and changeups (18% SwStr%). He just doesn’t seem ready for the major leagues yet.
LaMonte Wade Jr.: Wade starts against righties (.841 OPS vs RHP, .174 OPS vs LHP) and the Giants face five in the upcoming week.
Estevan Florial: He has been getting some play in center field but I’m worried about his upside after posting a 31% K% in AAA and has already stuck out a third of the time in the majors. If he’s playing, he might be a stolen base source with 32 SB in AAA and one so far in the majors.
Catchers
Joey Bart: He is just on fire (.375/.419/.550 in August).
Shea Langeliers: Rarely (maybe Rutschman is the exception) does a catching prospect hit when first promoted and Langeliers is struggling so far (50% K%).
Hitting Prospects
Josh Jung: He is hitting .405/.463/.946 with 5 HR and 1 SB in 41 AAA PA.
Gunnar Henderson: Combining his AA and AAA stats, he’s hitting .297/.417/536 with 18 HR and 18 SB.
| Name | Prev Roster% | Current Roster% | Change% |
|---|---|---|---|
| Trent Grisham CF SD | 40% | 52% | 12% |
| C.J. Abrams SS WAS | 33% | 39% | 6% |
| Jose Iglesias SS COL | 32% | 34% | 2% |
| Joey Bart C SF | 29% | 33% | 4% |
| Bryson Stott 2B PHI | 28% | 35% | 7% |
| A.J. Pollock LF CHW | 28% | 30% | 2% |
| Paul DeJong SS STL | 24% | 29% | 5% |
| Harold Ramirez DH TB | 23% | 26% | 3% |
| Oscar Gonzalez RF CLE | 22% | 27% | 5% |
| Luis Rengifo 2B LAA | 21% | 30% | 9% |
| Ha-Seong Kim SS SD | 21% | 26% | 5% |
| Gunnar Henderson SS BAL | 21% | 24% | 3% |
| Josh Jung 3B TEX | 19% | 23% | 4% |
| Brett Baty 3B NYM | 15% | 53% | 38% |
| Elehuris Montero 3B COL | 15% | 19% | 4% |
| Jake McCarthy RF ARI | 12% | 14% | 2% |
| Kerry Carpenter DH DET | 10% | 15% | 5% |
| Shea Langeliers DH OAK | 9% | 22% | 13% |
| Lars Nootbaar RF STL | 8% | 15% | 7% |
| David Fletcher SS LAA | 7% | 9% | 2% |
| Joey Meneses 1B WAS | 4% | 27% | 23% |
| Estevan Florial CF NYY | 4% | 8% | 4% |
| LaMonte Wade RF SF | 4% | 7% | 3% |
| Jake Fraley LF CIN | 3% | 9% | 6% |
| Sam Haggerty RF SEA | 3% | 7% | 4% |
| Christian Arroyo 2B BOS | 3% | 5% | 2% |
| Emmanuel Rivera 3B ARI | 1% | 7% | 6% |
| Oswaldo Cabrera SS NYY | 1% | 5% | 4% |
| Stone Garrett RF ARI | 1% | 4% | 3% |
Starters
Justin Steele: Since he started throwing his slider almost 40% of the time starting in July, he has a 1.66 ERA, 3.20 xFIP, 10.4 K/9, and 1.24 WHIP. He’s turned into a solid arm who is facing the Brewers next week.
David Peterson: Peterson has been decent as a starter (3.17 ERA, 10.5 K/9, 1.23 WHIP) but has struggled with a 4.2 BB/9. If he remains in the rotation, he’s scheduled to face the Rockies sometime next week.
Aaron Civale: Civale is in a two-start week (vs DET and CHW) and faces Seattle next week. I had my reservations about him, but came back throwing harder and is moving away from his four-seamer (3% SwStr, 17% GB%). He has a 1.96 xFIP in the two starts and for those making Sunday adds, the results of the White Sox start will be known.
Eduardo Rodriguez: How he performs in his Sunday start will determine a lot of his value going forward. Here is the only info I have going into tomorrow’s start. He threw 72 pitches in his last rehab start.
Final line for #Tigers LHP Eduardo Rodriguez in Triple-A Toledo: 6.0 IP, 5 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 1 BB, 11 K. 72 pitches, 53 strikes.
I think he's ready.
— Evan Petzold (@EvanPetzold) August 17, 2022
And in one start his fastball averaged 90.8 mph
#Tigers LHP Eduardo Rodriguez in his start for Low-A Lakeland: 3.0 IP, 3 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 1 BB, 5 K. 59 pitches, 38 strikes.
23 changeups, 20 four-seam fastballs, 12 sinkers, four sliders. Seven whiffs, five with changeup. Fastball averaged 90.8 mph, topped out at 92.4 mph.
— Evan Petzold (@EvanPetzold) August 6, 2022
He was averaging 92 mph earlier this season.
José Suarez: Since the All-Star (vs SEA, OAKx2, KC), he has a 1.19 ERA, 3.56 xFIP, 8.3 K/9, and 0.84 WHIP. The biggest change during this stretch is upping his slider (13% SwStr%, 28% GB%) usage from 12% to 30%. The other big change is limiting the walks from 4.4 BB/9 to 2.0 BB/9. It’ll be interesting to see if the results stick once he faces tougher competition.
Austin Voth: With the Orioles, Voth has a 2.81 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, and 8.3 K/9. He’s kept his pitch mix similar but his swinging-strike rate has jumped from 9.2% to 11.7%. The biggest change is that he’s throwing his cutter in the zone (35% to 55% Zone%) and hitters aren’t sitting on his fastball when behind in the count. Last season, he threw his fastball 67% of the time when behind in the count. This season it’s just 48% of the time.
Dane Dunning: He continues to be a ~4.00 ERA pitcher but in the second half he is walking more guys (3.5 BB/9 to 4.1 BB/9) but generating more groundballs (53% GB% to 58% GB%). Streamer.
Drew Smyly: Smyly has very averaging-looking results (7.7 K/9, 3.67 ERA, 4.14 xFIP, and 1.25 WHIP). He can be streamed against weak matchups (vs WAS this past week) and during two-start weeks (vs STL and MIL next week) for the brave.
JP Sears: He was likely added for his two starts against Texas (5 IP, 0 ER, 2 K, 3 BB) and Seattle. In 21 IP as a starter, he has had some insane batted ball luck with 0.0 H/9 and .213 BABIP. His 0.86 ERA is all fancy but it is paired with a 4.76 xFIP (4.7 K/9, 2.3 BB/9, 42% GB%).
Daniel Lynch: A second-half 2.82 ERA (5.05 ERA in 1H) is not backed up by any changes since his first and second-half xFIPs are both 4.43. Ignorable.
Mike Soroka: He’s making some minor league rehab starts and hopefully he returns at some point this season from his multiple ACL tears.
Tyler Glasnow: There is a small chance he’ll throw this year but I’m not counting on it. Ignore.
Kyle Muller: He was demoted back to AAA after he struggled with walks (8.2 BB/9) … again.
| Name | Prev Roster% | Current Roster% | Change% |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Civale SP CLE | 40% | 49% | 9% |
| Tyler Glasnow SP TB | 34% | 36% | 2% |
| Justin Steele SP CHC | 33% | 49% | 16% |
| Eduardo Rodriguez SP DET | 28% | 35% | 7% |
| David Peterson SP NYM | 28% | 33% | 5% |
| Mike Soroka SP ATL | 24% | 40% | 16% |
| Jose Suarez SP LAA | 16% | 25% | 9% |
| Drew Smyly SP CHC | 10% | 18% | 8% |
| JP Sears RP OAK | 7% | 14% | 7% |
| Kyle Muller SP ATL | 7% | 9% | 2% |
| Austin Voth SP BAL | 4% | 8% | 4% |
| Dane Dunning SP TEX | 21% | 22% | 1% |
| Daniel Lynch SP KC | 12% | 13% | 1% |
Relievers: Saves-based ranks
Jonathan Hernández: Good reliever who is the closer.
Alexis Díaz: Good reliever who is the closer.
Rowan Wick: Below-average reliever who is the closer.
Ian Kennedy: OK reliever who is closing.
Jason Adam: Great reliever who is closing sometimes.
Evan Phillips: Great reliever who is the backup closer.
Scott Effross: Good reliever who is the backup closer.
Matt Bush: Good reliever who is the backup closer.
James Karinchak: Great reliever again who is the backup closer.
Carl Edwards Jr.: Below-average reliever who looked to be the closer for a couple of games.
| Name | Prev Roster% | Current Roster% | Change% |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jonathan Hernandez RP TEX | 37% | 39% | 2% |
| Rowan Wick RP CHC | 25% | 36% | 11% |
| Alexis Diaz RP CIN | 22% | 30% | 8% |
| Jason Adam RP TB | 21% | 26% | 5% |
| Ian Kennedy RP ARI | 20% | 24% | 4% |
| Evan Phillips RP LAD | 16% | 18% | 2% |
| James Karinchak RP CLE | 9% | 11% | 2% |
| Scott Effross RP NYY | 4% | 9% | 5% |
| Matt Bush RP MIL | 3% | 6% | 3% |
| Carl Edwards RP WAS | 1% | 3% | 2% |
Jeff, one of the authors of the fantasy baseball guide,The Process, writes for RotoGraphs, The Hardball Times, Rotowire, Baseball America, and BaseballHQ. He has been nominated for two SABR Analytics Research Award for Contemporary Analysis and won it in 2013 in tandem with Bill Petti. He has won four FSWA Awards including on for his Mining the News series. He's won Tout Wars three times, LABR twice, and got his first NFBC Main Event win in 2021. Follow him on Twitter @jeffwzimmerman.
Muller was demoted after a spot start in which he walked one over five innings, following a 2.5/9 rate in AAA. (He did walk six in 2.2 innings in his only other Atlanta start back on May 1, inflating his MLB numbers). There’s currently no rotation spot for him, but his apparent command gains over the minor-league season are encouraging.
I’m convinced this arrogant clown doesn’t even watch the games. The second week in a row he published blatantly false information about Kyle Muller. You would think after just a wildly incorrect Muller blurb — just wildly incorrect — and being called out for it in the comments last week, that his writing would become more circumspect. But he seems rather lazy for such an arrogant guy.
Name calling is unnecessary. Maybe try being a bit nicer. If the author made an error for a blurb about fantasy baseball, you don’t have to say awful things about them to get your point across. Good lord.
I generally agree with this sentiment, however this author has other errors too and it sounds like he has not adjusted any of his feelings about players based on new data and readers pointing out the flaws. For example he wrote that Soroka has 2 ACL tears when I’m actuality he has 2 Achilles tears. Doesn’t seem like he does his homework.
It’s not hard to imagine someone’s mixing up “torn ACL” with “torn Achilles” when they’re presumably rushing to finish a report of this type, especially when the distinction really isn’t important for the intended audience.
I agree, I was only pointing out that it fit in with the idea that the author was portraying some confidence in inaccurate data.
Well, that seems uncalled for. Braves fan, I presume?