Waiver Wire & FAAB Report (Week 3)

In the article, I cover the players using CBS’s (about 40% or less initial roster rate) and Yahoo’s ADD/DROP rates. Both hosting sites have the option for daily and weekly waiver wire adds. CBS uses a weekly change while Yahoo looks at the last 24 hours. Yahoo is a great snapshot of right now while CBS ensures hot targets from early in the week aren’t missed. The players are ordered for redraft leagues by my rest-of-season preference grouped by starters, relievers, and hitters.

Batters

Joey Wiemer: With the news that Tyrone Taylor will take longer than expected to return from the IL, his job is safe. Wiemer has been productive across the board with 1 HR, 1 SB, and .350 AVG. The 24-year-old has possibly taken a step forward with a 10% SwStr% and 13% K%. Both are career lows including the minors.

Adam Duvall: He’s been crushing baseballs (.458/.536/1.042) and playing everyday. A must roster to see if anything close to this production can continue. Edit: A late-game wrist injury on Sunday could put his immediate PT in doubt. No update until Monday per the team, but this should temper bids. 

Matt Vierling: A balanced projection of 15 HR and 15 SB with a .255 AVG over the course of a season.

Jorge Mateo: The 28-year-old continues to hit (1.085 OPS), walk (13% BB%), and steal bases (5 SB). A must roster until he starts to be a drag on the major league team.

Jorge Soler: Power bat (3 HR) who will be a batting average sink.

Trevor Larnach: Playing and performing (.333/.438/.519) in the middle of the Twins lineup.

Brice Turang: He’s on the strong side of a platoon and continues to produce like an all around hitter (.316/.435/.526, 1 HR, 2 SB).

Myles Straw: While showing no power, he is getting on base enough (.360/.500/.400) to steal five bases so far.

Chas McCormick: He’s started in five of the last six games in centerfield while hitting a .808 OPS with 1 HR and 3 SB.

Ji Hwan Bae: Hitting enough (.855 OPS) to stay in the lineup and stealing bases (2). He has played five games at second base and could add outfield qualification in a week or so. His value drops quite a few spots in non-roto leagues.

Jose Siri: He was the easy top choice before going on the IL. He’s not going to be startable for a couple of weeks. Depending on league depth and available roster slots, he might even be droppable.

David Villar: He’s hitting a steady .240/.367/.520 with 2 HR. I like that the 26-year-old is improving across the board (fewer strikeouts, more walks, higher maxEV, fewer groundballs).

Orlando Arcia: The 28-year-old cut his strikeout rate (22% to 15%) and has a career-high 109.4 mph maxEV. He’s become an effective middle infielder.

Brian Anderson: Riding a .583 BABIP to a .500/.593/1.000 triple slash line.

Garrett Cooper: Playing and hitting (2 HR, .889 OPS). Safe play with little upside.

Enrique Hernández: While a .071 BABIP has his batting average at .136, he has hit 2 HR and has seven games at shortstop.

Nolan Gorman: Possibly on the strong side of a platoon and is hitting at the extremes with a .455 BABIP, 28% K%, 20%, BB%, 50% HR/FB, and 54% GB%.

Alec Burleson: Starts against righties with Lars Nootbaar on the IL and the team is scheduled to face six righties next week. Projections have Burleson for a .260 AVG and 20 HR over a full season.

Spencer Steer: Starting every day and remaining productive (.875 OPS).

Elehuris Montero: A .444 BABIP is offsetting a 32% K% and 0% BB%. A stream at home (COL) play.

Jason Vosler: Remains productive (1.260 OPS, .667 ISO), but playing time might end when Joey Votto comes off the IL. Vosler has played some in the outfield, so he might transition there to remain in the lineup. I only have him ranked this high is for the same chance he’s reached a new talent level.

Adam Frazier: Another guy who is hitting enough (.350/.435/.650) to stay in the lineup (started in six of seven).

Patrick Wisdom: His strikeouts are down 10% points (34% to 24%) allowing his batting average (career .219 AVG, .316 in 2023) to not be a drag.

Joey Gallo: Continues to do Joey Gallo things (3 HR, .222 AVG).

Bryson Stott: Riding a .524 BABIP to a .407 AVG with no pop (.111 ISO, 52% GB%).

Robbie Grossman: He’s struggling to start the season (.661 OPS) but has started every game.

Brandon Crawford: Already missing time because of an arm injury and has little upside.

Gio Urshela: He’s playing and is not a complete disaster at the plate (.679 OPS).

Josh Lowe: While he’s hitting (.429/.467/.857), it has been only 15 PA total. He can’t be started in weekly leagues and only rostered if the team has a long bench.

Trayce Thompson: Short-side platoon bat who happened to hit three home runs in one game.

Luke Raley: He has only started in three of seven games (3 HR total), so he can be ignored.

Ramon Urias: With Frazier and Mateo off to hot starts, Urias has only started in four of the first seven games.

Catchers

Logan O’Hoppe: With a full-time run right now, he’s a must add.

Mitch Garver: While he might not be catcher qualified in all leagues (3 games this season), he is getting closer while swing a hot bat (.294/.333/.647, 2 HR).

Francisco Álvarez: He’s Util-only in most formats and will only catch two to three games. He’s basically a bench clogger until he get catcher qualification.

Nick Fortes: One of the few catchers who might steal a few bases (5 in ’22).

Mike Zunino: He’s a full-time catcher, nothing more.

Starters

Tylor Megill: If he’s in the Mets rotation, he’s a must roster. The one red flag is that his fastball velocity is down over 2 mph (95.8 mph to 93.6 mph). While some drop could be attributed to being a reliever some last season, it’s discerning. Also, make sure he stays in the rotation once other starters come off the IL.

Anthony DeSclafani: Out the bullpen, he’s throwing his change (21% SwStr% last season) and slider (13% SwStr% last season) more and dumped his four-seamer and curve. He posted a 63% GB% in the first game. It’ll be interesting if he can keep it up.

Bryce Elder: He should be getting more strikeouts since he’s moving away from his fastball (48% to 35% usage) and throwing his slider more (19% SwStr%). He started the transition last season and his production improved (-2% K%-BB% in 1H, 19% in 2H). And he is scheduled to face CIN (at ATL) and KC next week. The only question for him is how long he stays in the rotation.

Drey Jameson: I have no idea how to rank him. His results have been good in his three appearances (2 Wins, 1 Save, 2.16 ERA), but walked five batters and allowed two home runs in eight innings. Anyone throwing 96-mph with a plus slider (24% SwStr%) might just need to rostered and see how the role works out. Spencer Strider successfully used the formula last season.

Mitch Keller: Keller has increased his strikeouts (7.8 K/9 to 11.6 K/9) by leaning into his cutter (15% SwStr%, 26% usage). He still walks too many batters (4.6 BB/9) to be elite.

Mike Clevinger: The dirt bag’s profile is interesting with his fastball velocity up over 1 mph (93.5 mph to 94.7 mph). Our pitch models like his stuff (113 Stuff+, 51 botStuff) but his walks (5.4 BB/9) have his overall pitching grades below average (47 botOverall, 97 Pitching+). I’m not sure I’d start him, but I’d roster to see how his next few starts go.

Aaron Civale: He doesn’t walk or strikeout many batters putting his talent around a 4.00 ERA. He should face the Yankees next so it’ll be a tough call this week if he starts.

Dylan Dodd: His talent level is similar to Civale’s but he doesn’t have a locked in rotation spot. It’s tough to prioritize him going forward knowing he could be back in the minors for a couple months.

Jhony Brito: I should have bought into his changeup more. It seems to be at least a plus pitch and pairs nicely with his 95-mph sinker and four-seamer. And he’s thrown strikes. His breaking pitch (slurve) isn’t a usable third pitch.

Tanner Houck: In his first start, he lost 1.4 mph compared to when he was in the bullpen last season. Now, he did add a cutter that missed some bats and allowed him a diverse pitch mix. I’d like to see more and he could stay on the wire with his 5.40 ERA.

Seth Lugo: His transition to the rotation is going smother than I expected. He only lost 0.7 mph on his fastball. He’s limited himself to fastball, curve, and slider with his curve doing most of the damage (17% SwStr%). Worth a dart to see where his talent stabilizes.

Domingo Germán: Two starts this upcoming week at Cleveland and versus Minnesota. In his first start against Philadelphia, he had 8 K but 2 HR in 4.2 IP. While the velocity on his fastball remained constant, he threw them 7% points fewer. I’m not sure I trust starting him for those two starts, but I do want him on my bench going forward.

Michael Grove: He has just one start this season after only throwing 29 IP in the majors last year. Compared to last season, he has lost 1 mph on his fastball. Also, his slider was the only pitch to generate a swing-and-miss in his first start. More will be know after his start on Sunday.

Kris Bubic: Added 1.6 mph of fastball and found the plate (4.4 BB/9 to 1.8 BB/9). Additionally, he added an 85 mph slider. His Sunday results against the Giants will change his demand.

JP Sears: He leaned into his faster (79.3 mph to 80.6) slider more in his first start (26% to 34%). His swinging strike rate jumped from 8% to 12% but I need to see more before buying in.

Matt Manning: His velocity is down about 0.5 mph and he seemed to have ditched his sinker and change. I can understand keeping his slider (career 14% SwStr%) but not his curve (5% SwStr%). His fastball gets more misses than the curve.

Matt Strahm: He’s made two appearances, one start, for a total of 5 IP. He’s lost 0.5 mph on his fastball. It’s nearly impossible to know when his “starter” talent stabilized or if he’ll throw enough to get Wins.

Kutter Crawford: Struggled in his first start (7 ER in 4 IP) with getting a decent number of strikeouts (6 K in those 4 IP). His Sunday start will help set his value going forward.

Zack Greinke: He’s added over 1 mph to his fastball to get it back over 90 mph. In his two starts, his slider has a 22% SwStr% and his first better than average pitch since 2020. In the right spots, he should be a reasonable streamer.

Kyle Gibson: While he has two Wins, there is nothing in his profile to get excited over.

Kyle Muller: A 59% GB% has helped keep his ERA lower than his estimators. It’s still too few strikeouts (6.8 K/9) and too many walks (3.4 BB/9) on a bad team.

Germán Márquez: With any Rockies starter, it comes down to his matchups. This upcoming week has him with two starts, home versus St. Louis and on the road at Seattle. Pass.

Wade Miley: I’m not going to prioritize any pitcher with a 89-mph fastball even though he has two starts this upcoming week (@ARI, @SD).

Tyler Wells: While he didn’t allowed a run in one five-inning relief appearance, he hasn’t changed (velocity, pitch mix) compared to last season. He just doesn’t miss many bats (6.6 K/9 in ’22).

Austin Gomber: His velocity is down for the third straight season (92.5 to 91.6 to 91.0 to 90.7). He hasn’t shown enough in his first start to use him at Seattle this week.

Chris Flexen 플렉센: A career 4.40 ERA pitcher with a 6.3 K/9 who is at a career-low average pitch velocity.

Nick Pivetta: I’m out on the 30-year-old with a career 4.99 ERA and 1.39 WHIP, especially with no positive change to his repertoire.

Johan Oviedo: Too many walks (career 4.5 BB/9) to make up for his limited strikeouts (7.6 K/9) on a horrible team.

Kyle Freeland: His only start next week is at home (COL), so a hard pass.

Josh Fleming: The groundball pitcher got BABIP’ed to death in his first start, but giving up hard contact has always been a skill of his.

Rich Hill: His fastball is down under 86 mph while allowing 5 HR in 9 IP. I’m not interested in a NAIA pitcher.

Relievers

A.J. Puk: Great reliever who is the closer.

Reynaldo López: Good reliever who is the closer.

Pierce Johnson: OK reliever who is temporally the closer.

Dany Jiménez: OK reliever who might be the closer.

Andrew Chafin: An OK reliever who the team sort of uses as a closer. He might get some Saves faces lefty heavy lineups.

Will Smith: Decent reliever who might be in the mix for Saves.

Jorge López: Decent reliever who is likely the back up closer … maybe he’s still in the mix for Saves.

Aroldis Chapman: Great (at times) reliever who is the backup closer.

Rafael Montero: Great reliever who is the backup closer.

Trevor Stephan: Good reliever who is the backup closer.

José Quijada: Good reliever who is a couple steps away from closing.

Bryan Abreu: Good reliever who is two steps away from closing.

Ron Marinaccio: Good reliever who is a few steps away from closing.

Eli Morgan: Good reliever who is a ways from closing.

Caleb Thielbar: OK reliever who is a ways from closing.