Waiver Wire & FAAB Report (Week 15)
In the article, I cover the players using CBS’s (about 40% or less initial roster rate) and Yahoo’s ADD/DROP rates. Both hosting sites have the option for daily and weekly waiver wire adds. CBS uses a weekly change while Yahoo looks at the last 24 hours. Yahoo is a great snapshot of right now while CBS ensures hot targets from early in the week aren’t missed. The players are ordered for redraft leagues by my rest-of-season preference grouped by starters, relievers, and hitters.
Batters
Tommy Pham: In 199 PA, he has 9 HR, 9 SB, and a .284 AVG. And he plays every single day.
TJ Friedl: He’s finally over the 40% threshold. It’s a little crazy it took so long (.313/.379/.486 with 6 HR and 14 SB).
Jose Siri: While his .233 AVG and sporadic playing time limit his upside, he does have 16 HR, 7 SB, and a .844 OPS.
Jordan Westburg: After hitting .295/.372/.567 with 18 HR and 6 SB in AAA, he is enjoying a .455 BABIP to push his batting average up to .385 in the majors.
Maikel Garcia: So far this season, he has 13 steals and a .271 AVG but with a sub-.100 ISO.
Jeimer Candelario: A boring but effective .805 OPS with 10 HR and 4 SB.
Carlos Santana: Steady bat with 9 HR, 6 SB, and .247 AVG.
Carlos Santana, at age 37, celebrating his first-ever walk-off home run in style pic.twitter.com/I7duq4RAZU
— Jeff Eisenband (@JeffEisenband) July 1, 2023
Joey Votto: While Votto is hitting for power (.300 ISO, 3 HR), the league is feeding him a steady stream of non-fastballs (40% FB%). In 36 PA, his .133 BABIP and 33% K% have him with a .167 AVG.
Nick Gonzales: After hitting .257/.370/.450 with 6 HR and 1 SB in AAA, he’s struggling (32% K%, .695 OPS) so far in the majors. A gamble.
Aaron Hicks: He continues to play even with Mullins off the IL. With the Orioles, he is hitting .270/.393/.500 with 4 HR and 3 SB.
Andy Ibáñez: The playing time is there and he was on fire in June (.312/.354/.558, 4 HR).
Billy McKinney: He’s been highly effective (.869 OPS, 4 HR) in 60 PA so far. He is on the strong side of a platoon while facing six righties next week (4/2).
Garrett Cooper: He’s playing every day and is sort of productive (.716 OPS, 10 HR).
Corey Julks: Julks is splitting two outfield spots with McCormick and Meyers. Julks has higher demand because of his 12 SB.
Mickey Moniak: His playing time is far from secure with him sitting every third day since he’s sharing playing time with Ward and Renfroe.
Will Benson: Strong-side platoon bat who is decent when playing (.842 OPS, 3 HR , 6 SB). The Reds face five righties (2/3) next week.
Eduardo Escobar: Three straight starts with since being traded, two at third and one at second. He only has a .701 OPS with 4 HR and 2 SB.
Joey Wendle: Even though he is not hitting (.717 OPS, 1 HR, 4 SB), he is playing all the time while being qualified at several positions including tight end.
Drew Waters: Starting all time but barely hitting (.655 OPS, 3 HR, 3 SB, 3 CS).
Tony Kemp: The noodle bat (.275 SLG) leads off against righties and bats ninth against lefties.
Kerry Carpenter: He has been productive (.267/.317/.489, 7 HR) when playing but he sits against lefties. The Tigers are scheduled to face four lefties next week.
Jared Young: The 27-year-old was hitting .326/.426/.605 with 13 HR and 4 SB in AAA. Now he seems to be on the strong side of a first-base platoon.
Matt Vierling: Leads off against lefties but his playing time against righties is sporadic even though he doesn’t have much for platoon splits (career .715 OPS vs LHP, .699 OPS vs RHP). It doesn’t help that he is four for nine at stealing bases.
Nick Madrigal: Patrick Wisdom is about to come off the IL so Madrigal’s time as the Cubs third baseman is about done. Madrigal provided some speed (7 SB, .281 AVG) at third base.
Catchers
Patrick Bailey: He’s been great since being called up (.322/.347/.557, 5 HR) and needs to be rostered in 10-team single-catcher leagues.
Yainer Diaz: Started in nine of 10 games while hitting .274/.286/.493 with 7 HR.
Hitting Prospects
Colton Cowser: In AAA, he is hitting .328/.458/.540 with 10 HR and 7 SB in 251 PA.
Jonathan Aranda: In AAA, he is hitting .339/.454/.603 with 16 HR and 1 SB in 291 PA.
Colt Keith: In AA, he hit .325/.391/.585 with 14 HR and 2 SB in 276 PA. He was just promoted to AAA.
| Name | Previous Roster% | Current Roster% | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Joey Votto 1B CIN | 35% | 45% | 10% |
| Jeimer Candelario 3B WAS | 33% | 46% | 13% |
| TJ Friedl CF CIN | 32% | 62% | 30% |
| Colton Cowser CF BAL | 31% | 33% | 2% |
| Carlos Santana 1B PIT | 28% | 30% | 2% |
| Jose Siri CF TB | 23% | 28% | 5% |
| Jordan Westburg 2B BAL | 22% | 57% | 35% |
| Yainer Diaz C HOU | 20% | 29% | 9% |
| Maikel Garcia 3B KC | 19% | 31% | 12% |
| Patrick Bailey C SF | 18% | 25% | 7% |
| Tommy Pham LF NYM | 17% | 26% | 9% |
| Mickey Moniak RF LAA | 14% | 21% | 7% |
| Kerry Carpenter RF DET | 14% | 15% | 1% |
| Corey Julks LF HOU | 13% | 20% | 7% |
| Garrett Cooper 1B MIA | 10% | 13% | 3% |
| Nick Gonzales 2B PIT | 9% | 10% | 1% |
| Colt Keith C DET | 7% | 9% | 2% |
| Jonathan Aranda 2B TB | 6% | 10% | 4% |
| Aaron Hicks CF BAL | 6% | 7% | 1% |
| Drew Waters CF KC | 6% | 7% | 1% |
| Matt Vierling RF DET | 6% | 7% | 1% |
| Will Benson LF CIN | 5% | 8% | 3% |
| Eduardo Escobar 3B LAA | 5% | 7% | 2% |
| Joey Wendle SS MIA | 5% | 6% | 1% |
| Nick Madrigal 3B CHC | 3% | 6% | 3% |
| Billy McKinney RF NYY | 2% | 5% | 3% |
| Andy Ibanez 2B DET | 2% | 4% | 2% |
| Tony Kemp 2B OAK | 2% | 3% | 1% |
| Jared Young 1B CHC | 0% | 3% | 3% |
Starters
Note: I try to go over all the players who move 2% at CBS. There were a ton of starters and many of them were straight-up bad where a middle reliever (see Trevor Richards) was probably the better option. If a fantasy manager is considering guys on the list’s bottom third, the manager might need to look into some middle reliever options.
Bryan Woo: Since his disaster debut, he has a 2.18 ERA, 3.30 xFIP, 12.2 K/9, and 0.97 WHIP. He’s finally getting the attention he deserves.
Kutter Crawford: He’s a good pitcher (3.68 SIERA) considering the run environment. He’s about to the point of just set and forget in 12-team or deeper leagues.
Reese Olson: He’s allowed two or fewer runs in four of his six starts. In 26 IP, he has 30 K and 7 BB. His 21% K%-BB% was the 26th highest in June and ahead of Kirby, Nola, and Ohtani.
Clarke Schmidt: Since May 1st, he has a 3.30 ERA, 3.64 xFIP, 7.4 K/9, and 1.31 WHIP.
Kenta Maeda: In his two starts since coming off the IL, he has a 1.80 ERA, 3.67 xFIP, 10.8 K/9, and 1.20 WHIP.
Kyle Hendricks: The magician is back at it. He’s turning a 4.8 K/9 and 1.9 BB/9 into a 2.81 ERA and 0.96 WHIP.
Cristopher Sánchez: In 19 IP so far, he has a 3.26 ERA (3.23 xFIP), 1.14 WHIP, 51% GB, and 9.3 K/9. What the hell more are people looking for in a starter?
Cole Irvin: Since being called up in June, he has a 4.05 ERA (3.54 xFIP), 9.5 K/9, 1.4 BB/9, and 1.35 WHIP. He has revamped his pitch mix during that time.
Paul Blackburn: In his six starts this season, his ERA and estimators are all around 3.75 with a 10.2 K/9. It sucks that he won’t get Wins pitching for Oakland.
Wade Miley: He was lined up for two starts next week but it looks like the Brewers might go with a six-man rotation to end the season. Miley’s .231 BABIP is keeping his 3.02 ERA and 1.06 WHIP in check.
David Peterson: A 7.00 ERA and 3.42 xFIP. On the plus side is his 10.0 K/9 and 55% GB%. On the bad side is a 3.4 BB/9, 1.6 HR/9, and .392 BABIP. It’ll be interesting to see how his start goes on Sunday.
Michael Soroka: He had a decent start on Friday allowing 3 ER in 6 IP. He leaned into his sinker (5% SwStr%, 77% GB%). For me, he’s a roster and bench wait to see if he can string together three good starts.
JP Sears: With the summer heating up, Sears may no longer be rosterable with his low 25% GB%. His 2.0 HR/9 is only going to go up. And he’ll rarely gets a Win with Oakland.
Keaton Winn: The long reliever go his first start this season and went 6 IP allowing 2 ER with 3 K. His pitches generate a ton of weak contact. His splitter (67% GB%) and sinker (62% GB%) are worm killers and his four-seamer generates popups (22% GB%). He’s going to have a low BABIP if he keeps up anything close to those groundball rates.
Jose Quintana: Threw 2 IP in his last rehab start and should be ready to join the Mets rotation after the All-Star break.
Kolby Allard: Where in the hell did that Wednesday start come from? He had two AAA starts throwing just 6 IP but with a 10.8 K/9, 1.20 WHIP, and 2.70 ERA (4.36 xFIP). With his fastball down about 1 mph, he only threw it 30% of the time. He increased the usage of his curve and cutter to also around 30%. Also, he threw a few changeups. Interesting dart throw.
Trevor Richards: As a bulk reliever, he has been lights out with a 3.38 ERA (3.59 xFIP), 13.3 K/9, and 1.15 WHIP. I added him to the starter to show where I’d prefer him over the following starter options.
Osvaldo Bido: All of his pitches have a sub-10% SwStr% in his four starts so far. I might be more excited about him if he was generating any swings-and-misses.
Daniel Lynch: While he allowed just 1 ER in 13 IP over his last two starts, he only had 4 K with 3 BB (6.29 xFIP). I don’t buy that his .245 BABIP from this season is a skill and his 3.96 ERA will regress up to his ERA estimators.
Colin Rea: He has settled into being a 4.60 ERA streaming option against the league’s weaker opponents.
Austin Cox: Cox proved while he was a bullpen arm instead of a starter when, in his first start, he allowed 4 ER with 2 K and 4 BB in 3 IP. All that said, he might have a pitch mix that works if he dumps the change (2% SwStr%, 19% usage), doesn’t rely on his fastball (52% usage), and focus on his two breaking pitches (both with SwStr% over 15%).
Ronel Blanco: In 40 IP, he has a 5.0 BB/9 and 1.53 WHIP. The walks have his ERA and estimators up near 5.00. Might get a home start against Colorado next week.
Matt Manning: In his first start in over two months, Manning maintained his previous fastball velocity but struggled with his command (4 BB in 5 IP). At his point in Manning’s career, there is just hope he can get his shit together and live up to his prospect hype. If he does, it won’t be on my team.
Tommy Henry: There aren’t any positives to point out with him. His 89% LOB% is the only reason his ERA is down at 4.08 instead of closer to his low-5.00 estimators.
Trevor Williams: All signs point to him being a 5.00 ERA arm with a sub-90 mph fastball and his 8% SwStr% (lowest in five seasons).
Jhony Brito: A 5.00 ERA arm who needs to get his fastball to miss bats or a second swing-and-miss pitch besides his change.
Ryne Nelson: A 5.00 ERA pitcher who deserves every run he has allowed. No upside, only downside.
Luis L. Ortiz: He can generate groundballs (51% GB%) but that’s where the positive aspects of his profile end. A 4.5 BB/9 makes him completely worthless.
Bryan Hoeing: His 3.72 ERA is a little deceiving since his ERA estimators are closer to 5.00. One issue is his 3.5 BB/9. The other is that he posted a 3.93 xFIP in 17 relief innings and a 5.62 xFIP in 21 starter innings.
Hyun Jin Ryu 류현진: He is about to begin what will probably be a month-long rehab assignment.
Casey Mize: Still a ways away from contributing.
Starting Pitcher Prospect
Kyle Harrison: In AAA, he is posting a 15.0 K/9, 1.56 WHIP, 4.73 ERA in 53 IP. A 7.1 BB/9 is killing him.
Connor Phillips: In AA, he posted a 15.5 K/9, 1.31 WHIP, and 3.34 ERA in 64 IP. He was just promoted to AAA.
| Name | Previous Roster% | Current Roster% | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Wade Miley SP MIL | 40% | 47% | 7% |
| Kyle Hendricks SP CHC | 39% | 49% | 10% |
| Bryan Woo SP SEA | 37% | 59% | 22% |
| Kenta Maeda SP MIN | 33% | 39% | 6% |
| Clarke Schmidt SP NYY | 31% | 37% | 6% |
| JP Sears SP OAK | 30% | 35% | 5% |
| Tommy Henry SP ARI | 28% | 30% | 2% |
| Mike Soroka SP ATL | 23% | 46% | 23% |
| Kyle Harrison P SF | 21% | 22% | 1% |
| Reese Olson SP DET | 20% | 24% | 4% |
| Paul Blackburn SP OAK | 14% | 20% | 6% |
| Ryne Nelson SP ARI | 14% | 17% | 3% |
| Matt Manning SP DET | 12% | 15% | 3% |
| Kutter Crawford RP BOS | 12% | 13% | 1% |
| Colin Rea SP MIL | 10% | 14% | 4% |
| Jose Quintana SP NYM | 10% | 13% | 3% |
| Jhony Brito SP NYY | 9% | 15% | 6% |
| Luis Ortiz SP PIT | 9% | 13% | 4% |
| Osvaldo Bido SP PIT | 9% | 10% | 1% |
| Trevor Williams SP WAS | 7% | 9% | 2% |
| Casey Mize SP DET | 7% | 8% | 1% |
| David Peterson SP NYM | 5% | 11% | 6% |
| Cole Irvin SP BAL | 5% | 9% | 4% |
| Daniel Lynch SP KC | 5% | 7% | 2% |
| Connor Phillips SP CIN | 4% | 6% | 2% |
| Hyun-Jin Ryu SP TOR | 4% | 5% | 1% |
| Bryan Hoeing RP MIA | 3% | 4% | 1% |
| Ronel Blanco RP HOU | 2% | 5% | 3% |
| Cristopher Sanchez SP PHI | 2% | 4% | 2% |
| Keaton Winn RP SF | 1% | 2% | 1% |
| Trevor Richards RP TOR | 1% | 2% | 1% |
| Kolby Allard SP ATL | 1% | 10% | 9% |
| Austin Cox RP KC | 0% | 1% | 1% |
Relievers: Saves-based ranks
Jordan Hicks: Great reliever who is the closer for now.
Scott McGough: OK reliever who is the closer.
Hunter Harvey: Good reliever who seems to be the closer.
Justin Lawrence: Below-average reliever who is the closer.
Trevor May: Average reliever who is the closer.
Adbert Alzolay: Decent reliever who is sharing the closer’s role.
Aroldis Chapman: From what I can gather, Will Smith will remain the closer in Texas and Chapman will be his backup. I’m not 100% sure.
A.J. Minter: Great reliever who is a step or two away from closing.
Josh Sborz: Great reliever who is a step or two away from closing.
Tyler Rogers: Good reliever who is the backup closer.
Hector Neris: Good reliever who is a step or two away from closing.
Andrew Nardi: Great reliever who is a few steps away from closing.
Daniel Hudson: Decent reliever who is a few steps away from closing.
Kirby Yates: Decent reliever who is a few steps away from closing.
| Name | Previous Roster% | Current Roster% | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan Hicks RP STL | 40% | 56% | 16% |
| A.J. Minter RP ATL | 35% | 36% | 1% |
| Scott McGough RP ARI | 33% | 51% | 18% |
| Adbert Alzolay RP CHC | 29% | 30% | 1% |
| Daniel Hudson RP LAD | 23% | 24% | 1% |
| Aroldis Chapman RP TEX | 22% | 30% | 8% |
| Hector Neris RP HOU | 17% | 18% | 1% |
| Justin Lawrence RP COL | 15% | 19% | 4% |
| Hunter Harvey RP WAS | 11% | 20% | 9% |
| Tyler Rogers RP SF | 8% | 10% | 2% |
| Trevor May RP OAK | 7% | 8% | 1% |
| Josh Sborz RP TEX | 5% | 11% | 6% |
| Andrew Nardi RP MIA | 4% | 8% | 4% |
| Kirby Yates RP ATL | 0% | 2% | 2% |
Jeff, one of the authors of the fantasy baseball guide,The Process, writes for RotoGraphs, The Hardball Times, Rotowire, Baseball America, and BaseballHQ. He has been nominated for two SABR Analytics Research Award for Contemporary Analysis and won it in 2013 in tandem with Bill Petti. He has won four FSWA Awards including on for his Mining the News series. He's won Tout Wars three times, LABR twice, and got his first NFBC Main Event win in 2021. Follow him on Twitter @jeffwzimmerman.
Would you throw Peterson today vs SF