Waiver Wire & FAAB Report (Week 14)
In the article, I cover the players using CBS’s (about 40% or less initial roster rate) and Yahoo’s ADD/DROP rates. Both hosting sites have the option for daily and weekly waiver wire adds. CBS uses a weekly change while Yahoo looks at the last 24 hours. Yahoo is a great snapshot of right now while CBS ensures hot targets from early in the week aren’t missed. The players are ordered for redraft leagues by my rest-of-season preference grouped by starters, relievers, and hitters.
Batters
Joey Votto: Votto is hitting .308/.438/1.000 with 3 HR so far. I’m thinking the bidding could be intense in select leagues.
Tommy Pham: I guessed Pham would head back to the bench with the return of Alonso. I was wrong as Pham continues to play every day while having a great June (.305/.354/.610, 4 HR, 6 SB).
Maikel Garcia: He remains a great source of stolen bases (10 AB in 171 PA) while not being a drag on batting average (.288 AVG).
David Hamilton: I think Hamilton should be rostered in all formats just to see what happens. In AAA, the 25-year-old showed no weakness with 11 HR, 27 SB, while hitting .255/.339/.486. The knock against him as a prospect was his below-average power but this season in AAA he had a 111 maxEV and 6.3% Barrel%. He has started three straight at shortstop, so the playing time might also be there. He could amount to nothing, but it’s worth taking the chance.
TJ Friedl: A great source of speed (10 SB) and batting average (.315 AVG) but sits against lefties.
Triston Casas: He is playing regularly while hitting .216/.329/.390 with 8 HR on the season.
Matt Vierling: If starting all the time (has previously been platooned versus lefties), he can contribute across the board (7 HR, 4 SB, .263 AVG).
Samad Taylor: So far, the 24-year-old Taylor has started in six of eight games while hitting .190/.292/.190 with 1 SB. He needs to start getting on base a bit more so he can be a stolen base threat.
Kerry Carpenter: Strong-side platoon bat who is providing power (6 HR) and batting average (.272).
Alek Thomas: He has started every game since being promoted while hitting .333/.333/.571 during that time. When he was up before, he was platooned against lefties but the team hasn’t faced one since he’s been promoted.
Luis García: An accumulating profile of 286 PA, 5 HR, and 3 SB while hitting .274/.305/.395.
Carlos Santana: Accumulator (6 HR, 6 SB??!!, and .228 AVG).
Mike Tauchman: Leads off against righties and has been a fine accumulator (.289/.411/.389, 2 HR, 3 SB).
Will Benson: Only starts against righties but has been productive (.328/.458/.517, 2 HR, 4 SB) since his promotion in late May. The Reds face five righties next week.
Jake Bauers: He continues to leadoff for a depleted Yankees lineup. His hitting has been fine (.788 OPS, 6 HR, 2 SB).
Aaron Hicks: He continues to crush it with the Orioles (.310 AVG, 3 HR, 3 SB). Hicks remained in center field in Mullins’s first game back off the IL but Mullins was the DH.
Ryan O’Hearn: Strong side platoon bat (.962 OPS, 6 HR) who may see his playing time drop when Mountcastle comes off the IL.
Michael Busch: Hitting .211/.302/.263 while playing third base with Max Muncy on the IL.
Garrett Cooper: He’s hitting home runs (9 HR) but nothing else. His .276 OBP has ensured he only has 18 Runs scored.
Nick Gonzales: The Pirates second base prospect was hitting .257/.370/.450 with 6 HR and 1 SB in AAA. He has a balanced profile but is strikeout prone (28% combined MiLB K%).
Eduardo Escobar: His power has fallen off with his maxEV, avgEV, HardHit%, and LA all down. His 6% Barrel% is the lowest since 2016. While he is going to the Angels, he will remains by filing Urshela’s role. Even if he was getting full-time at-bats, he might not be fantasy relevant but in the deepest of leagues.
Donovan Solano: On the short side of a platoon.
Catchers
Note: Pay attention to catchers this week with several decent ones being promoted or coming off injury. While some managers might not be able to add these options, the drops might be an upgrade.
Henry Davis: In the minors, the Pirates prospect was hitting .284/.433/.541 with 11 HR and 9 SB. In the majors, he’s playing in the outfield or as the DH while hitting a respectable .267/.421/.533 with 1 HR and 1 SB.
Yainer Diaz: He has started in 10 of 11 games while hitting .270/.285/.508 with 7 HR.
Patrick Bailey: He’s been a great source of batting average (.330 AVG, .413 BABIP) while providing a little bit of pop (4 HR).
Danny Jansen: Since coming off the IL, he has started in seven of ten games.
Bo Naylor: Since being promoted, he has started in three games and has struggled at the plate so far (36% K%, .298 OPS).
Carson Kelly: Since coming off the IL, Kelly has started in six of 12 games while hitting a .465 OPS.
Hitting Prospects
Sal Frelick: In AAA, he is hitting .256/.344/.366 with 1 HR and 6 SB over 96 PA.
Jonathan Aranda: In AAA, he is hitting .333/.454/.540 with 10 HR and 0 SB over 262 PA.
| Name | Previous Roster% | Current Roster% | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Triston Casas 1B BOS | 38% | 40% | 2% |
| Danny Jansen C TOR | 29% | 32% | 3% |
| TJ Friedl CF CIN | 28% | 31% | 3% |
| Luis Garcia 2B WAS | 27% | 30% | 3% |
| Carlos Santana 1B PIT | 25% | 28% | 3% |
| Sal Frelick SS MIL | 21% | 25% | 4% |
| Bo Naylor C CLE | 20% | 29% | 9% |
| Michael Busch 3B LAD | 14% | 17% | 3% |
| Henry Davis C PIT | 13% | 62% | 49% |
| Patrick Bailey C SF | 13% | 18% | 5% |
| Kerry Carpenter RF DET | 12% | 14% | 2% |
| Garrett Cooper 1B MIA | 10% | 11% | 1% |
| Joey Votto 1B CIN | 9% | 31% | 22% |
| Tommy Pham LF NYM | 9% | 16% | 7% |
| Alek Thomas CF ARI | 9% | 14% | 5% |
| Yainer Diaz C HOU | 7% | 19% | 12% |
| Nick Gonzales SS PIT | 7% | 9% | 2% |
| Maikel Garcia 3B KC | 6% | 17% | 11% |
| Ryan O’Hearn 1B BAL | 6% | 12% | 6% |
| Matt Vierling RF DET | 5% | 6% | 1% |
| Aaron Hicks CF BAL | 4% | 6% | 2% |
| Eduardo Escobar 3B LAA | 4% | 5% | 1% |
| Jake Bauers LF NYY | 4% | 5% | 1% |
| Jonathan Aranda 2B TB | 3% | 6% | 3% |
| David Hamilton SS BOS | 3% | 6% | 3% |
| Donovan Solano 1B MIN | 3% | 5% | 2% |
| Will Benson LF CIN | 3% | 5% | 2% |
| Samad Taylor LF KC | 2% | 7% | 5% |
| Carson Kelly C ARI | 2% | 3% | 1% |
| Mike Tauchman LF CHC | 1% | 5% | 4% |
Starting Pitchers
Bryan Woo: He’s a cheat code right now with the 12.7 K/9 and 2.6 BB/9. Don’t let his 5.09 ERA scare anyone away. In his last three starts, he has a 2.30 ERA.
Kutter Crawford: His season-long results have been great (3.74 ERA, 1.14 WHIP) with no cracks in the armor. His four-seamer has been great with a 16% SwStr% and 21% Popup%.
Kyle Bradish: I’m surprised Bradish is so lowly rostered. He has shoved over his last five starts when he pumped up the use of this slider (19% SwStr%) to 34% and dropped his walk rate down to 1.6 BB/9. During that stretch, he posted a 3.25 ERA (3.27 xFIP).
Gavin Williams: After shoving in AAA (2.93 ERA, 11.9 K/9, 1.09 WHIP), Williams struggled in his debut with 4 K, 3 BB, and 4 ER over 5 IP. In AAA, all four of his pitches had a 15% or better swinging-strike rate. In his first start, it was only his slider that reach that level.
Here are his pitch comps.
Four-seamer
Slider
Curve
Change
The four-seamer and slider grade out great with the change being decent. A 4.00 ERA on a curve isn’t great but he throws it the least (13% in the majors and in AAA). One major issue is his reliance on his fastball. In AAA, he threw it 62% of the time and 54% in his first start. No starter’s fastball is enough to carry them in the majors.
Emmet Sheehan: So far Sheehan has a .034 BABIP that is keeping his ERA at 1.50 and his WHIP at 0.58. Over his first two starts, he has a 5.3 K/9 and 3.0 BB/9 which puts him at a 5.88 xFIP and 5.99 SIERA. I suspect him to eventually land somewhere in between.
Kenta Maeda: In his first start back off rehab, his fastball velocity (90.7 mph) was back up to previous seasons. He leaned on his slider and splitter and got 8 K in 5 IP against Detroit. Recommend rostering but maybe hold off starting.
Paul Blackburn: While a .382 BABIP has his ERA and WHIP a little high (1.48 WHIP, 4.21 ERA), he has a respectable 3.78 xFIP and 3.69 SIERA. The only issue is the lack of Wins with the A’s.
Ben Lively 라이블리: He’s made a few adjustments and has a deserving 4.11 ERA (4.19 xFIP) and 1.26 WHIP. While he can’t be trusted every week, he’s a fine bench streaming option depending on the matchup.
Matthew Boyd: While a 62% LOB% has his ERA up at 5.37, all his ERA estimators have him as a low-4.00 ERA talent. At least a bench streamer depending on the league’s depth.
JP Sears: His high flyball rate (26% GB%) is catching up with him (1.9 HR/9) and it might get worse as the summer warms up.
Kyle Hendricks: The magician is limiting hard contact again with a 0.3 HR/9 and .220 BABIP. The lack of hits has his ERA down at 2.60 and his WHIP at 0.98. I just don’t believe both will continue (see 2021 and 2022) and his ERA will head towards his 5.34 SIERA.
Osvaldo Bido: Well, this 27-year-old has come out of nowhere. He’s always had walk issues in the minors (5.2 BB/9 in ’21, 4.2 BB/9 in ’22). Over two starts he has a 3.60 ERA, 11.7 K/9, and 1.40 WHIP. His slider and change have a 13% SwStr% or higher. The issue is that his sinker (0% SwStr% in the majors, 6% in AAA) is the only pitch with a 50% or higher Zone%. He has to throw it to get called strikes. He just can get behind in the count.
Bryan Hoeing: The 26-year-old non-prospect has been respectable with a 2.70 ERA (4.16 xFIP), 8.1 K/9, and 1.30 WHIP. In AAA, he posted a 10.4 K/9 and 1.0 BB/9. He attacks hitters with a 94-mph sinker (53% GB%, 61% usage) and slider (17% SwStr%). With just the two pitches, he’s struggled the second time through the order (1st TTO: 4.02 xFIP, 2nd TTO: 6.21 xFIP). It’s a flawed profile but better than most of the other pitchers listed.
Wade Miley: I have him as a 4.60 ERA talent. A streamable arm with the right matchups.
Colin Rea: Below average streaming option.
José Quintana: In his rehab starts, his fastball has averaged under 90 mph (91.3 mph last season). Against A-ball hitters, his change and curve both have a 19% SwStr%. He’s not interesting at this point.
Matt Manning: Manning has made three AAA rehab starts going 4.0 IP while striking out six batters and walking five. He’s struggling with walks (8.3 BB/9) and hopefully, they come down before he is promoted.
Jhony Brito: He’s returned with a “better” pitch mix of almost equal parts sinker (56% GB%), change (50% GB%, 14% SwStr%), and about the worst slider I’ve ever seen (8% SwStr%, 37% GB%). Even in the minors, his slider has just a 7% SwStr%. I wish he had a second non-fastball in addition to his changeup. A near 5.00 ERA talent.
Trevor Williams: His 4.14 ERA is horrible but a 4.81 SIERA, 1.37 WHIP, and sub-90 mph fastball all are reasons not to roster him.
Hogan Harris: A 4.50 ERA talent with no upside. His arsenal doesn’t have one average MLB pitch.
Alex Wood: He’s struggling since coming off the IL with his velocity down and a 6.48 ERA, 6.5 K/9, 4.3 BB/9, and 1.32 WHIP over those two starts. Not rosterable in his current state.
Casey Mize: He is still coming back from the IL and is just throwing off a mound.
James Kaprielian: I write up everyone who is getting added and I have zero idea why Kapielian (6.34 ERA, 1.59 WHIP, 4.6 BB/9, 5.09 SIERA) is one of them.
Pitching Prospects
Kyle Harrison: In 49 AAA innings, he has an 11.9 K/9, 1.49 WHIP, and 4.53 ERA.
Andrew Painter: In 28 AA innings, he has an 11.8 K/9, 0.95 WHIP, and 2.54 ERA.
Connor Phillips: In 64 AA innings, he has a 15.3 K/9, 3.23 ERA, and 1.27 WHIP.
| Name | Previous Roster% | Current Roster% | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Emmet Sheehan SP LAD | 38% | 61% | 23% |
| Kyle Bradish SP BAL | 35% | 40% | 5% |
| Gavin Williams SP CLE | 34% | 63% | 29% |
| Wade Miley SP MIL | 34% | 40% | 6% |
| Andrew Painter SP PHI | 33% | 34% | 1% |
| Kyle Hendricks SP CHC | 31% | 38% | 7% |
| Ben Lively SP CIN | 28% | 29% | 1% |
| Kenta Maeda SP MIN | 26% | 33% | 7% |
| JP Sears SP OAK | 26% | 29% | 3% |
| Matthew Boyd SP DET | 24% | 30% | 6% |
| Alex Wood SP SF | 20% | 22% | 2% |
| Kyle Harrison P SF | 20% | 22% | 2% |
| Bryan Woo SP SEA | 18% | 35% | 17% |
| Matt Manning SP DET | 11% | 12% | 1% |
| Paul Blackburn SP OAK | 9% | 13% | 4% |
| Kutter Crawford RP BOS | 9% | 12% | 3% |
| Jose Quintana SP NYM | 9% | 10% | 1% |
| Colin Rea SP MIL | 9% | 10% | 1% |
| Jhony Brito SP NYY | 7% | 9% | 2% |
| Casey Mize SP DET | 7% | 8% | 1% |
| Trevor Williams SP WAS | 6% | 7% | 1% |
| James Kaprielian SP OAK | 4% | 6% | 2% |
| Hogan Harris RP OAK | 3% | 6% | 3% |
| Osvaldo Bido SP PIT | 2% | 8% | 6% |
| Connor Phillips SP CIN | 2% | 4% | 2% |
| Bryan Hoeing RP MIA | 0% | 2% | 2% |
Relievers: Saves-based ranks.
Scott McGough: Decent reliever who is now the closer.
Adbert Alzolay: Decent reliever who is sharing the closer duties.
Jordan Hicks: Good reliever who is, at least, temporarily the closer.
A.J. Minter: Good reliever who is the backup closer.
Josh Sborz: Good reliever who is the backup closer.
Jason Foley: Good reliever who is backing up a shaky closer.
Tanner Scott: Decent reliever who is a couple of steps away from closing.
Steven Wilson: Fine reliever who is a couple of steps away from closing.
Lucas Sims: OK reliever who is a couple of steps away from closing.
Andrew Nardi: Good reliever who is a few steps away from closing.
Daniel Hudson: On the IL but about done with his rehab appearances.
| Name | Previous Roster% | Current Roster% | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| A.J. Minter RP ATL | 29% | 34% | 5% |
| Daniel Hudson RP LAD | 21% | 22% | 1% |
| Adbert Alzolay RP CHC | 17% | 28% | 11% |
| Scott McGough RP ARI | 13% | 31% | 18% |
| Tanner Scott RP MIA | 11% | 13% | 2% |
| Steven Wilson RP SD | 6% | 8% | 2% |
| Jordan Hicks RP STL | 4% | 40% | 36% |
| Jason Foley RP DET | 3% | 6% | 3% |
| Josh Sborz RP TEX | 2% | 5% | 3% |
| Lucas Sims RP CIN | 2% | 4% | 2% |
| Andrew Nardi RP MIA | 1% | 4% | 3% |
Jeff, one of the authors of the fantasy baseball guide,The Process, writes for RotoGraphs, The Hardball Times, Rotowire, Baseball America, and BaseballHQ. He has been nominated for two SABR Analytics Research Award for Contemporary Analysis and won it in 2013 in tandem with Bill Petti. He has won four FSWA Awards including on for his Mining the News series. He's won Tout Wars three times, LABR twice, and got his first NFBC Main Event win in 2021. Follow him on Twitter @jeffwzimmerman.
Pardon my ignorance here but do the Z-reliever ratings go in order: Great-Good-Decent-Fine-Ok-Bad? Is that right and am I missing any categories? Just hoping to understand. Thanks.
qane, it is a fair question which may not get answered. The reliever ranks are save-based, with Jeff focusing on the role, as is necessary to compete in roto redraft leagues. I have always felt he uses the various terms as descriptive adjectives, rather than to denote tiers of quality. The descriptions are relevant in that a RP who is good or great is more likely to move into and maintain high leverage innings than one who is decent, fine or OK, depending on the alternatives of course. I pay more attention to the order in which he lists them than the adjectives he uses, knowing that difference between #6 and #8 is probably small. It would be nice if he clarified since this question comes up often.