Waiver Wire & FAAB Report (Week 11)
In the article, I cover the players using CBS’s (about 40% or less initial roster rate) and Yahoo’s ADD/DROP rates. Both hosting sites have the option for daily and weekly waiver wire adds. CBS uses a weekly change while Yahoo looks at the last 24 hours. Yahoo is a great snapshot of right now while CBS ensures hot targets from early in the week aren’t missed. The players are ordered for redraft leagues by my rest-of-season preference grouped by starters, relievers, and hitters.
Batters
Luke Raley: He’s started in eight of the last 10 games (decent for a Ray) while hitting 10 HR and with 7 SB on the season.
Jose Siri: How in the hell is a guy with 10 HR and 5 SB only 28% rostered?
Ha-Seong Kim 김하성: A nice speed threat (10 SB) who provides some power (5 HR) and plays several positions.
Jesús Sánchez: Started two straight while batting cleanup since coming off the IL. So far this season he is hitting .316/.379/.582 with 4 HR and 3 SB. There is a reasonable chance he’ll sit against all lefties (vs 6 RHP next week).
Jack Suwinski: While he can be a drag on batting average (.235 AVG), he provides nice power (11 HR) and speed (6 SB). He sits against the occasional lefty.
Zach McKinstry: Leads off against righties and sits against lefties. On the season has 4 HR, 10 SB, and .279 AVG.
Luis García: Looks like he is maintaining the career-low strikeout rate (13%) and has a decent .276 AVG with 5 HR and 3 SB (only 2 CS). Batting second.
Adam Frazier: He’s now leading off with Mullins on the IL while being productive (6 HR, 6 SB)
Owen Miller: He continues to hit (.889 OPS over the past two weeks) and play every day. Right now, I just don’t see how the team can sit him once Urias returns from the IL.
Marcell Ozuna: He was on a hot streak (.986 OPS, 9 HR in May) but just 1 for 20 over the past week. He’s still the everyday DH but that playing time could come to an end if he keeps struggling.
Jake McCarthy: Since being recalled from AAA, he is hitting eighth or ninth every day while batting a .676 OPS with 6 SB during that time.
Leody Taveras: He is hitting a .906 OPS over the last two weeks but without any steals. On the season, he is just 5 for 8 in stolen base attempts. He doesn’t seem to be a stolen base savior some managers hoped for.
Randal Grichuk: Six home games this week will have Grichuk on the rise. While he has a .833 OPS it has been with only 1 HR and 1 SB.
Akil Baddoo: Still sits against lefties. He’s cut his strikeout rate from 28% to 19% thereby raising his batting average up to .256. Providing some power (3 HR) and speed (5 SB).
Nolan Jones: He was started in seven of eight games since being promoted while batting .308/.333/.538 (.467 BABIP) with a 37% K% with the league feeding him a ton of fastballs (64%). This ranking is based on him getting the strikeouts under control.
Yuli Gurriel: He’s having a surprisingly good season (.272 AVG, 3 HR, 3 SB) while playing all the time now.
Jeimer Candelario: Decent talent and plays every day. A nice accumulator.
Gio Urshela: He’s started 10 straight games at third base while hitting .357/.400/.548 with 1 HR and 2 SB over the last two weeks.
Isiah Kiner-Falefa: He’s playing (seven straight starts) and stealing bases (5 SB) while hitting .282/.300/.513 over the past week.
Corey Julks: Starts about two-thirds of the time (seven of last 10) while hitting .267 AVG, 4 HR, and 6 SB.
J.P. Crawford: Bats lead off every game with no power or speed.
Maikel Garcia: Garcia has cooled off over the last week (.349 OPS), so Nicky Lopez, the future face of the Royals franchise, is playing third base instead. Jokes aside, Garcia hasn’t been that great (0 HR, .683 OPS) to deserve much playing time.
Willi Castro: Started in two of the last four games as the team (Polanco and Kepler) got healthy. Castro looks like he’s headed back to being a super sub.
Drew Waters: He’s not seeing many fastballs (45% fastballs) and striking out 47% of the time with no walks.
Kody Clemens: Clemons (.742 OPS, 4 HR) might get a week or two’s run as the first baseman with Bohm on the IL.
Rougned Odor: Odor’s (.723 OPS) playting time may have passed with Machado off the IL and Odor will start sharing time with Kim (.716 OPS) at second base.
Tucupita Marcano: Starts against righties hitting near the top of the lineup.
Catchers
Christian Bethancourt 베탄코트: Putting up decent catcher stats (7 HR and .248 AVG).
Patrick Bailey: While the .310 AVG won’t last (.407 BABIP), he’s providing decent catcher stats.
Gary Sánchez: Sanchez is doing Sanchez things by hitting 2 HR in 21 PA while still striking out 33% of the time.
Hitter Prospects
Ronny Mauricio: In AAA, he is hitting .338/.378/.551 with 7 HR and 9 SB.
Jordan Westburg: In AAA, he is hitting .308/.379/.607 with 15 HR and 4 SB.
Ethan Salas: Just added to the Padres single-A team.
| Name | Previous Roster% | Current Roster% | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| Adam Frazier 2B BAL | 38% | 42% | 4% |
| Jack Suwinski CF PIT | 34% | 38% | 4% |
| Ha-seong Kim 2B SD | 33% | 35% | 2% |
| Marcell Ozuna DH ATL | 29% | 49% | 20% |
| Jake McCarthy RF ARI | 27% | 49% | 22% |
| Gio Urshela 3B LAA | 25% | 29% | 4% |
| Owen Miller 2B MIL | 24% | 42% | 18% |
| Jeimer Candelario 3B WAS | 23% | 27% | 4% |
| Christian Bethancourt C TB | 23% | 25% | 2% |
| J.P. Crawford SS SEA | 19% | 23% | 4% |
| Randal Grichuk RF COL | 19% | 21% | 2% |
| Luis Garcia 2B WAS | 17% | 22% | 5% |
| Jordan Westburg SS BAL | 17% | 19% | 2% |
| Jose Siri CF TB | 16% | 28% | 12% |
| Luke Raley 1B TB | 16% | 25% | 9% |
| Ronny Mauricio SS NYM | 16% | 19% | 3% |
| Leody Taveras CF TEX | 15% | 23% | 8% |
| Nolan Jones RF COL | 12% | 23% | 11% |
| Jesus Sanchez RF MIA | 7% | 9% | 2% |
| Drew Waters CF KC | 7% | 8% | 1% |
| Zach McKinstry 2B DET | 6% | 39% | 33% |
| Ethan Salas C SD | 6% | 8% | 2% |
| Maikel Garcia 3B KC | 6% | 7% | 1% |
| Yuli Gurriel 1B MIA | 4% | 6% | 2% |
| Corey Julks LF HOU | 4% | 6% | 2% |
| Akil Baddoo LF DET | 3% | 9% | 6% |
| Patrick Bailey C SF | 3% | 9% | 6% |
| Gary Sanchez C SD | 3% | 6% | 3% |
| Willi Castro LF MIN | 2% | 22% | 20% |
| Isiah Kiner-Falefa CF NYY | 2% | 4% | 2% |
| Rougned Odor 2B SD | 1% | 4% | 3% |
| Tucupita Marcano SS PIT | 1% | 4% | 3% |
| Kody Clemens 1B PHI | 1% | 3% | 2% |
Starters
Braxton Garrett: Garrett is still under the 40% threshold I set so next week he will be at the top again. Since a blowup on May 3rd, he has a 1.69 ERA, 1.22 xFIP, and 0.96 WHIP.
Reese Olson: The 23-year-old righty, was striking out a ton of batters in AAA (11.5 K/9) but also walking a ton (5.4 BB/9). In his last two starts before being promoted, he walked just two batters while striking out 19. In his major league debut, he had 6 K, 1 BB, and just 2 ER over 5 IP (89 pitches). He threw five different pitches with his slider and change getting all the swings-and-misses while his two fastballs and curve didn’t get any. This is an aggressive rank but I want him on my roster to see if he has some control to go with all those strikeouts.
Ben Lively 라이블리: In 22 innings, he has shoved with a 1.99 ERA (3.30 WHIP), 0.93 WHIP, and 9.5 K/9. He attacks batters with six pitches with his slider (18% SwStr%, 26% usage) being his best pitch.
Alex Faedo: I know a 2.1 HR/9 has his ERA at 5.54 but all his ERA estimators are two runs less at 3.50. It’s tough not to like someone with 9.0 K/9 and 0.7 BB/9. Great time to add while his ERA is masking a great arm.
Aaron Civale: In his first start in almost two months, Civale performed decent. His fastball velocity was up almost 1 mph. He threw 84 pitches over 5 IP. He struck out four batters and walked two. So far this season he has kept his 2.04 ERA way under his ERA estimators (>4.00) except FIP because he hasn’t allowed a home run.
Tarik Skubal: Beginning his rehab assignment after being a 3.50 ERA talent last season.
Michael Grove: He struggled in the majors (8.44 ERA, 3.9 BB/9) before going on the IL. In his AAA rehab, he was better (12.6 K/9, 0.90 WHIP, 1.80 ERA) with his fastball velocity up (93.9 mph to 95.3 mph). A sneaky add who may not have much attention.
Adrian Houser: While he doesn’t strikeout many batters (6.3 K/9), he doesn’t walk many either (2.6 BB/9) and keeps the ball on the ground (54% GB%). Right now he is a low 4.00’s ERA talent.
Garrett Whitlock: Whitlock has been bitten by home runs (2.1 HR/9, 5.14 ERA). He needs to lean into his slider more (24% SwStr%, 58% GB%, 22% usage).
Griffin Canning: I consider him to be a streaming option and in my rotation every other week. I’ve got him around 4.30 ERA arm.
Zack Greinke: He’s been a fine streaming option with a 4.19 ERA (4.06 xFIP) and 1.14 WHIP because he is not walking anyone (1.3 BB/9).
Luke Weaver: A reasonable 8.7 K/9 and 1.9 BB/9. He is getting hit around (2.3 HR/9, 3.17 BABIP) so he has a 5.36 ERA while a 4.22 xFIP.
Michael Soroka: He was sort of a mess in his first MLB start allowing 4 ER over 6 IP with 3 K, 2 BB, and 2 HBP. For me, he’s a bench-and-wait guy for a couple more starts. I can’t trust him at his point.
Brandon Bielak: The only item going Bielak’s favor to keep his sub-3.50 ERA is a 90% LOB%. He’s giving up a decent number of home runs (1.7 HR/9) while walking batters (3.5 BB/9, 1.45 WHIP). Those two are never a good combination.
Daniel Lynch: He was fine in his first major league start. He limited the runs allowed (2 R in 5.1 IP) but walked three batters with his fastball velocity down almost 1 mph compared to last season. I feel like I ranked him near the top of his range of outcomes.
Carlos Carrasco: Since returning from the IL, he has a 3.57 ERA (4.50 xFIP) and 1.19 WHIP in three starts. Most of the improvement is from dropping his walk rate from 5.3 BB/9 to 2.6 BB/9.
JP Sears: It sucks that Sears throws for Oakland and has almost no chance for a Win (0 Wins this year). His 17.7% K%-BB% is right between Sonny Gray and Gerrit Cole as the 27th highest value (qualified starters).
Paul Blackburn: I’m not 100% sure what is going with Blackburn. He’s still throwing the kitchen sink (6 pitches) at the same velocity. Historically, and even this season in AAA, he has been a low-strikeout, low-walk arm. In his first MLB game, he went the other way with a 13.5 K/9 and 4.5 BB/9. If room, roster-and-bench.
Mike Mayers: In three appearances (one start), he has a 9.5 K/9 and 3.4 BB/9. While his 1.35 ERA won’t last, his ERA estimators are in the mid-3.00’s range.
Bryan Woo: In his Saturday debut, he allowed 6 ER in 2 IP with 4 K and 1 BB. He probably leaned on his 96-mph fastball too much (75% usage). The issue was that none of his non-fastball generated any swings-and-misses.
Colin Rea: The 32-year-old is a 4.50 to 5.00 ERA talent who is worth an occasional stream.
Johan Oviedo: He threw 26 IP in May and walked 18 batters. His 4.50 ERA seems like a perfect valuation for him.
Jared Shuster: How in the hell is he rostered in 42% of all leagues? He has zero fantasy value (4.99 ERA, 6.20 xFIP).
Ryne Nelson: The STUFFF metrics like him but his results so far this season have him pegged as a 5.00 talent.
Julio Teheran: A 90-mph fastball and just a 5 K in 11 IP. His matching 0.82 ERA and WHIP won’t last with just a 4.1 K/9
Kyle Hendricks: I have no interest in someone who has a D2 fastball and control issues (4.8 BB/9).
Tommy Henry: Too many walks (3.5 BB/9) compared to his strikeouts (5.5 BB/9) has him off my radar. A .244 BABIP is the only reason he has a 3.73 ERA.
Chase Anderson: I’m only interested in Colorado’s Anderson when he’s on the road against a weak opponent.
Pitching Prospects
Emmet Sheehan: In AA, he has a 15.6 K/9, 1.64 ERA, and 0.80 WHIP over 44 IP.
| Name | Previous Roster% | Current Roster% | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Civale SP CLE | 40% | 43% | 3% |
| Garrett Whitlock SP BOS | 40% | 43% | 3% |
| Mike Soroka SP ATL | 37% | 64% | 27% |
| Johan Oviedo SP PIT | 37% | 43% | 6% |
| Jared Shuster SP ATL | 37% | 42% | 5% |
| Carlos Carrasco SP NYM | 34% | 41% | 7% |
| Braxton Garrett SP MIA | 25% | 38% | 13% |
| Tarik Skubal SP DET | 19% | 22% | 3% |
| Kyle Hendricks SP CHC | 18% | 19% | 1% |
| Brandon Bielak SP HOU | 16% | 25% | 9% |
| JP Sears SP OAK | 15% | 20% | 5% |
| Zack Greinke SP KC | 15% | 17% | 2% |
| Ryne Nelson SP ARI | 13% | 15% | 2% |
| Adrian Houser SP MIL | 11% | 17% | 6% |
| Ben Lively SP CIN | 9% | 30% | 21% |
| Griffin Canning SP LAA | 9% | 17% | 8% |
| Emmet Sheehan SP LAD | 7% | 10% | 3% |
| Tommy Henry SP ARI | 6% | 16% | 10% |
| Alex Faedo SP DET | 6% | 14% | 8% |
| Paul Blackburn SP OAK | 5% | 8% | 3% |
| Michael Grove SP LAD | 4% | 7% | 3% |
| Daniel Lynch SP KC | 4% | 6% | 2% |
| Bryan Woo SP SEA | 4% | 13% | 9% |
| Luke Weaver SP CIN | 3% | 6% | 3% |
| Colin Rea SP MIL | 3% | 5% | 2% |
| Chase Anderson SP COL | 2% | 4% | 2% |
| Julio Teheran SP MIL | 1% | 6% | 5% |
| Reese Olson SP DET | 1% | 4% | 3% |
| Mike Mayers RP KC | 0% | 2% | 2% |
| Austin Voth RP BAL | 0% | 1% | 1% |
Relievers – Saves-based ranks.
Justin Lawrence: Good reliever who might already be Colorado’s closer.
Adbert Alzolay: Good reliever who throws multiple innings and is sharing closing duties.
Giovanny Gallegos: Good reliever who is sharing the closing duties.
Miguel Castro: Good reliever who is sharing the closing duties.
Hunter Harvey: Good reliever who looks to be sharing the closing duties.
Pierce Johnson: Bad reliever who is really close or might have already lost his closer duties.
Tyler Rogers: Decent reliever who is the backup closer.
Tanner Scott: Good reliever who is currently the backup closer but will move down when AJ Puk comes off the IL.
Joel Payamps: Good reliever who now seems a couple steps away from closing.
Scott McGough: OK reliever who is a couple steps away from closing.
Grant Anderson: While Anderson doesn’t have a dominating fastball (92 mph), he shoved in AAA (16.0 K/9 in 21 IP) and continues to do so in the majors (8 K in 3.2 IP).
Ben Joyce: Amazing reliever who is a few steps away from closing.
AJ Smith-Shawver: The 20-year-old righty has been promoted to the majors to be used in the Braves bullpen but has yet to have an appearance. I keep reading the comps to Strider because it’s easy. I am not going to use a roster spot for a future move to the rotation. My biggest concern is the 3.3 BB/9 in just 33 IP (12 in AAA) and it might jump as teams start to get a book on him. If he was to be ranked among the starters, I’d rank him after Teheran.
Hector Neris: Decent reliever who is few steps away from closing.
Austin Voth: A high 4.00’s ERA multi-inning reliever.
| Name | Previous Roster% | Current Roster% | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| Giovanny Gallegos RP STL | 35% | 46% | 11% |
| Miguel Castro RP ARI | 31% | 41% | 10% |
| Pierce Johnson RP COL | 31% | 33% | 2% |
| Hector Neris RP HOU | 15% | 18% | 3% |
| A.J. Smith-Shawver P ATL | 9% | 21% | 12% |
| Adbert Alzolay RP CHC | 8% | 10% | 2% |
| Hunter Harvey RP WAS | 8% | 10% | 2% |
| Ben Joyce RP LAA | 7% | 19% | 12% |
| Tyler Rogers RP SF | 5% | 7% | 2% |
| Scott McGough RP ARI | 5% | 7% | 2% |
| Tanner Scott RP MIA | 4% | 6% | 2% |
| Joel Payamps RP MIL | 2% | 4% | 2% |
| Justin Lawrence RP COL | 2% | 2% | 2% |
| Grant Anderson RP TEX | 0% | 4% | 4% |
Jeff, one of the authors of the fantasy baseball guide,The Process, writes for RotoGraphs, The Hardball Times, Rotowire, Baseball America, and BaseballHQ. He has been nominated for two SABR Analytics Research Award for Contemporary Analysis and won it in 2013 in tandem with Bill Petti. He has won four FSWA Awards including on for his Mining the News series. He's won Tout Wars three times, LABR twice, and got his first NFBC Main Event win in 2021. Follow him on Twitter @jeffwzimmerman.
Love when you start a sentence with “what the hell”!! Starts my day off with a big laugh!
I very much enjoy these pieces and appreciate the work involved, but I’d likely be more amused by that phrase if it seem warranted. To say that there’s a surprise that Shuster is rostered so much, and to declare he has zero fantasy value, is folly and reads as something that was only done to check off the box to have at least one inflammatory comment for these pieces. Shuster starts for the Braves (3rd best in NL), got 2 wins in his last four outings, and hasn’t given up more than 3 ER in those four outings. Not saying he’s a must get or that he should be above 42% ownership, but the reasons for that ownership are obvious.
During those four games he has a 7% K%-BB%. That Patrick Corbin-Grahmn Ashcraft area. I’m still a hard pass
Well, you’re probably still going to be right about it, but Patrick Corbin himself has gotten 4 quality starts in his last 5 innings, including 2 wins. In my NL-only league, where pitching is definitely a bit grim, Corbin and his equally worrisome buddy Trevor Williams have been keeping the team afloat. Fantasy value, even if a bit risky.
First Shuster and now Corbin ?? The idea is to lower your era not raise it.
Both have been serviceable and aren’t raising the ERA if you take a look.
That’s true looking a recent Roto stats. But the point is to project future stats. That’s why 7% K%-BB% is more relevant than the current lucky ERA and Ws.
Counterpoint: Shuster is bad at major league baseball and you should have him nowhere near a competitive fantasy baseball team.
Disagree completely. Competitive NL-only 5×5 teams would love to stream Shuster.
However, if one frames it as 10 or even 12 team MLB league with limited bench, then sure, Shuster may not be one’s best choice. I still think he, like other questionable hot hands at the moment, can be useful in a pinch and have more than zero fantasy value if one is careful.
No we would not
No you would not be careful? Okay then.
LightenUp, context is very important. As Jeff clarifies in his introduction, this list is generated based upon adds/drops/ownership in CBS and Yahoo mixed leagues. Jeff then ranks these players based upon his personal preference for those playing in mixed redraft leagues. The reason context is important is that a player who is ranked 500 overall (mixed) probably does not have much value in a mixed league which is 300 players deep, but he might have value in an only league that is 300 players deep.
Simple question: If Jeff’s opinion is that a player has zero value in a mixed redraft league, should he not say so? If played in such a league, would you not want him to express his honest opinion?
I, too, play in an NL-only league. I do my own research and make my own decisions. I don’t whine when an article which is geared toward the most common leagues people play in is not catered to my specific needs.
If you are thinking about picking up Schuster, then you should consider the things that you referenced (his team context and solid showing in his last 4 starts). But…when an expert tells you his under the hood numbers suck, you should be grateful, not offended. Look into it yourself. Shuster’s 2023 K/9 is 6.61 and his BB/9 is 5.58. Most experts are going to steer clear of a player like. Not saying they are right or wrong, just that information is power. As always, player evaluation depends on personal preferences, specific team needs and available alternatives.
I was not offended at all, just concerned about consistency with other players listed around Shuster. If Jeff had written something like “Hard pass on shockingly 42%-owned Jared Shuster with his 7% K%-BB% and 6.20 xFIP.” it would leave things somewhat open to interpretation no matter what league one is in. “He has zero fantasy value” reads as unusable, but “He has zero fantasy value outside of the deepest of leagues” reads as a door slightly open even if Jeff wants no part of it.
Fair point, and perhaps I misinterpreted your critique. For me, the “consistency” is in Jeff’s rank order of preference, with the comments serving as an explanation of his reasoning. So I see “How the hell is he rostered in 42% of leagues…” as a rhetorical question. The “zero fantasy value”, given the context, is saying (to me) that the potential ratio damage offsets the upside in Ws and Ks in mixed leagues. Absolute value is obviously league and category dependent, and Jeff does not specifically address this. Paul Sporer is more diplomatic, and perhaps he says “I am lower on Shuster than the 42% of people that own him”. Either way, it is merely an opinion, not something written in stone.
These young players make adjustments all the time, and there is nothing wrong with rostering someone you believe in. All of the experts have one thing in common…they are competitive people who like to win. None of them are afraid to update or change an opinion as new information becomes available. You have to do that to win. Too often, I see people (not you) get upset or offended when their latest pickup is not sufficiently praised by an expert. Perhaps they should understand that the expert is trying to help them win, not act as their therapist. Over the years, I feel like I have learned a lot from reading people like Jeff by focusing on the rationales behind their opinions, rather than getting too wrapped up in whether a specific player evaluation agrees with my own. I trust that time will sort that out.