Waiver Wire & FAAB Report (Preseason)
While a couple of rookie hitters (Scott and Rafaela) might have been unexpected a month ago, most of the changes are with pitchers, especially relievers. Also, I have three drafts and an auction this weekend, so this is most likely the final report for the weekend. On Sunday morning I might add a few names.
In the article, I cover the players using CBS’s (about 40% or less initial roster rate) and Yahoo’s ADD/DROP rates. Both hosting sites have the option for daily and weekly waiver wire adds. CBS uses a weekly change while Yahoo looks at the last 24 hours. Yahoo is a great snapshot of right now while CBS ensures hot targets from early in the week aren’t missed. The players are ordered for redraft leagues by my rest-of-season preference grouped by starters, relievers, and hitters.
Hitters
Ceddanne Rafaela: Most of the other “misses” are pretty bland. While there is a chance Rafaela gets demoted, he has the talent to hit .250 with 20 HR and 20 SB.
Brent Rooker: Nice power bat (30 HR in 2023) who should play most days.
Brice Turang: There was some speculation that Turang might lose his job but he’s now the Opening Day starting second baseman. For now, Turang has only shown the ability to steal bases and nothing else including hitting left-handed pitchers.
Jordan Westburg: Westburg is ranked a bit higher than most of the other options since he’s not an outfielder. The biggest obstacle for Westburg is Mount Baltimore in left field limiting his home runs.
Will Benson: With TJ Friedl out for a couple of months, Benson will be starting against righties for the Reds. He was productive last season with 18 HR and 27 SB in 556 PA.
Jake Fraley: Fraley was likely to start the season on the strong side of a platoon with Stuart Fairchild facing the lefties. With the Friedl injury, maybe Fairchild will split his time between Benson (career .374 OPS vs LHP) and Fraley (career .482 OPS vs LHP). Nick Martini isn’t the answer with a career .378 OPS vs LHP.
Jose Siri: He got platooned some last season (career .607 OPS vs LHP) but can be a source of steals and home runs while not being a batting average sink.
Garrett Mitchell: He has been leading off in Spring Training and may get full-time at-bats with Joey Wiemer and Sal Frelick in a platoon. Steamer600 has Mitchell projected for 15 HR and 17 SB with a .236 AVG.
Brenton Doyle: Doyle’s defense will keep him in games and he should steal a decent number of bases (22 SB in 431 PA last season).
Mitch Haniger: The 33-year-old has been irrelevant for the past two seasons (combined 476 PA, 17 HR, 1 SB, .228 AVG). I’m not sure how that will change this season.
Matt Wallner: Hit 14 HR in 254 PA last season but is likely in a platoon because he struggles against lefties.
Mike Yastrzemski: Another boring platoon bat with little to no upside.
Luis Rengifo: Rengifo might be a drop since he’s dealing with a hamstring injury and in most leagues isn’t worth an IL stash.
Jonathan Aranda: Surgery on his index finger means he will start the season on the IL.
Adam Duvall: Short-side platoon bat who is paired with Jarred Kelenic in Atlanta. Not enough plate appearances to be relevant.
Graham Pauley: Added to the Padres Korean roster but only got one plate appearance in the two games. Tyler Wade is getting a run at third base while Manny Machado can’t throw.
Victor Scott II: He will start the season in the minors but he stole 94 bases last season and could dominate the stolen base category if promoted. Don’t expect much power so he could be a two-category contributor.
Catchers
Alejandro Kirk: With Danny Janson hurt (shocked face), Kirk will play most of the time to start the season. Kirk is one of the few catchers who can provide positive batting average (career .268 AVG).
Ryan Jeffers: His low rostership rate is probably based on one catcher leagues where he’s a streaming option.
| Name | Previous Roster% | Current Roster% | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Alejandro Kirk C TOR | 39% | 41% | 2% |
| Will Benson RF CIN | 38% | 46% | 8% |
| Brent Rooker DH OAK | 36% | 39% | 3% |
| Ceddanne Rafaela CF BOS | 35% | 43% | 8% |
| Luis Rengifo 2B LAA | 34% | 38% | 4% |
| Jake Fraley RF CIN | 33% | 40% | 7% |
| Ryan Jeffers C MIN | 28% | 31% | 3% |
| Matt Wallner LF MIN | 25% | 29% | 4% |
| Mike Yastrzemski RF SF | 21% | 24% | 3% |
| Victor Scott II OF STL | 20% | 29% | 9% |
| Jose Siri CF TB | 18% | 22% | 4% |
| Jonathan Aranda 1B TB | 16% | 20% | 4% |
| Mitch Haniger LF SEA | 14% | 18% | 4% |
| Adam Duvall CF ATL | 7% | 12% | 5% |
| Graham Pauley 3B SD | 7% | 11% | 4% |
| Adam Duvall CF ATL | 7% | 12% | 5% |
| Jordan Westburg 2B BAL | – | 28% | – |
| Brice Turang 2B MIL | – | 13% | – |
| Garrett Mitchell OF MIL | – | 19% | – |
| Brenton Doyle OF COL | – | 10% | – |
Starters
Jack Flaherty: He’s been decent on Spring Training (11.9 K/9, 2.6 BB/9). Last season, Flahery’s fastball sat at 93 mph and it’s up to 94.3 mph this spring. His secondaries are getting a ton of whiffs (Curve = 63%, slider = 40%, change = 33%, four-seamer = 26%). He needs to be rostered in all formats to see if this improvement sticks.
Gavin Stone: The Dodgers #5 starter has shown some improvement compared to last season with his walks down from 3.8 BB/9 to 0.9 BB/9 (9% Ball%).
Garrett Crochet: Crochet’s inning total will hold him back (54 IP is season high) from being a top arm. He’s able to dominate hitters with his 95 mph+ fastball and two average to better secondaries (change and slider).
Jared Jones: Jones is a top prospect (62nd overall) and is major league-ready after throwing 126 IP last season. The only question right now is when he’ll get the call to the majors, not if.
Ryan Weathers: In 18 IP, Weathers has been solid with a 10.5 K/9, 1.06 WHIP, and 3.00 ERA (3.47 xFIP). His four-seamer is sitting at 96 mph. He might have a bit of upside by ditching his new sinker. His sweeper isn’t missing many bats but its characteristics point to more swing-and-miss.
Ronel Blanco: He’s in the Astros rotation and has been lights out in Spring Training (0.64 WHIP, 10.3 K/9, 0.00 ERA in 15.2 IP). Besides the amazing results, there is no information on Blanco, not even fastball velocity. Last season he threw a 95-mph fastball and two secondaries with swinging-strike rates over 22%. He’s effectively going undrafted so take a shot and then move on if it’s not working.
Bowden Francis: The 28-year-old Francis has made the Blue Jays rotation. He’s kept his fastball velocity up at 94 mph. Besides the curve and slider he threw last season, he’s also throwing a splitter this year. Has the feel of a league-average pitcher.
Casey Mize: Mize is coming back from Tommy John surgery and all is fine except he’s walking too many batters (5.3 BB/9, 41% Ball% leading to a 4.7 equiv. BB/9). A gamble to see if he regains some control.
Louie Varland: Varland has made the Twins rotation while Anthony DeSclafani is on the IL. Varland was decent as a starter last season with an 8.7 K/9, 1.36 WHIP, and 5.30 ERA (4.24 xFIP).
Luis Gil: Gil is coming back from Tommy John surgery but throwing great with a 97-mph fastball, swings-and-misses from all three pitches (20% SwStr%), and some control (3.1 BB/9, 36% Ball % or 2.9 equiv BB/9). The issue with Gil is how many innings does he have in himself. The most he has ever thrown is 108 and that was in 2021.
JP Sears: Sears is a fine pitcher but he happens to play for Oakland. A fine streamer against weaker opponents.
Jordan Wicks: He’s safely in the Cubs rotation. He needs to find another pitch besides his changeup to strike out batters.
Reynaldo López: I’m surprised the Braves are going with Lopez in their rotation but I’m not in charge. His “starter” fastball velocity is down at 95 mph. He threw that hard from 2018 to 2021 and posted a 4.59 ERA (5.11 xFIP), 1.33 WHIP, and 7.9 K/9. It’s a streaming arm for Winzzz.
Dane Dunning: His swinging-strike rate is way up this spring (10% in ’23 to 30%) but all the misses are coming from his 90-mph fastballs. I don’t buy it.
Michael Soroka: I’m not taking a chance on Soroka since he’s barely pitched in three seasons, was at best, an average pitcher, and is now on a horrible White Sox team. There are so many other pitchers I’d take a chance on.
Martín Pérez: His fastball velocity is down about 1.5 mph in Spring training (91.7 to 90.2) and over 12 seasons, he’s shown one serviceable season. Maybe a streamer.
Kyle Gibson: There is no reason to roster Gibson except to stream for a Win against weak opponents.
Miles Mikolas: He’s the Cardinals Opening Day starter. A streaming option against weak opponents but the Dodgers won’t be that. Ignore this first week.
| Name | Previous Roster% | Current Roster% | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jack Flaherty SP DET | 39% | 46% | 7% |
| Miles Mikolas SP STL | 39% | 44% | 5% |
| Jordan Wicks SP CHC | 38% | 41% | 3% |
| Dane Dunning SP TEX | 36% | 39% | 3% |
| Casey Mize SP DET | 33% | 37% | 4% |
| Gavin Stone SP LAD | 31% | 55% | 24% |
| Kyle Gibson SP STL | 29% | 33% | 4% |
| Reynaldo Lopez RP ATL | 28% | 37% | 9% |
| Louie Varland SP MIN | 25% | 30% | 5% |
| JP Sears SP OAK | 24% | 30% | 6% |
| Jared Jones SP PIT | 20% | 25% | 5% |
| Mike Soroka SP CHW | 17% | 20% | 3% |
| Martin Perez SP PIT | 15% | 20% | 5% |
| Martin Perez SP PIT | 15% | 20% | 5% |
| Garrett Crochet RP CHW | 11% | 30% | 19% |
| Luis Gil SP NYY | 6% | 11% | 5% |
| Bowden Francis RP TOR | 6% | 11% | 5% |
| Ronel Blanco RP HOU | 1% | 4% | 3% |
| Ryan Weathers SP MIA | – | 13% | – |
Relievers (Save-based ranks)
Daniel Hudson: Grabbed a Win and a strikeout in Korea. For leagues that allow a free look, a must-add.
Tyler Kinley: Below-average reliever who is most likely the closer.
Yimi García: Good reliever who may be the closer.
Joel Payamps: Good reliever who may be the closer.
Griffin Jax: Great reliever who may be the closer.
Brock Stewart: Good to great reliever who may be the closer.
Dany Jiménez: OK reliever who may be the closer.
Abner Uribe: Good reliever who may be the closer.
Trevor Megill: OK reliever who may be the closer.
Héctor Neris: Great reliever who is the backup closer.
Hunter Harvey: Good reliever who is the backup closer.
| Name | Previous Roster% | Current Roster% | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Joel Payamps RP MIL | 28% | 45% | 17% |
| Hunter Harvey RP WAS | 24% | 28% | 4% |
| Hector Neris RP CHC | 23% | 25% | 2% |
| Abner Uribe RP MIL | 19% | 35% | 16% |
| Dany Jimenez RP OAK | 14% | 21% | 7% |
| Tyler Kinley RP COL | 8% | 12% | 4% |
| Trevor Megill RP MIL | 7% | 10% | 3% |
| Griffin Jax RP MIN | 6% | 23% | 17% |
| Daniel Hudson RP LAD | 5% | 18% | 13% |
| Brock Stewart RP MIN | 3% | 7% | 4% |
| Yimi Garcia RP TOR | 2% | 5% | 3% |
| Ronel Blanco RP HOU | 1% | 4% | 3% |
Jeff, one of the authors of the fantasy baseball guide,The Process, writes for RotoGraphs, The Hardball Times, Rotowire, Baseball America, and BaseballHQ. He has been nominated for two SABR Analytics Research Award for Contemporary Analysis and won it in 2013 in tandem with Bill Petti. He has won four FSWA Awards including on for his Mining the News series. He's won Tout Wars three times, LABR twice, and got his first NFBC Main Event win in 2021. Follow him on Twitter @jeffwzimmerman.
I’m debating what percentage of my FAAB to use on JD Martinez in an NL only (OBP and SLG instead of AVG). Any thoughts?
25-30 percent
Appreciate the input!