Waiver Wire: Chris Carter, Jesus Aguilar
I hope that I’ve been giving it to you straight. On that note, these recommendations aren’t the most inspired. Oh, look: a guy who hit two bombs yesterday. Check it out: a recent call-up who was raking while in the minors.
Which kind of brings me to a larger point: It’s not often that I find players inspiring enough to recommend. Obviously, I’ve done it. I’ve been doing it for years … sometimes well, sometimes not so much. As far as the players go, I mean. Perhaps I’m just feeling particularly cynical or depressed.
What kind of recommendations do you want to see? I second-guess just about any name I come up with because of the multitude of league formats out there and, as a result, the usefulness of a rec. To me, there’s never enough context. I’d love to see what kinds of things readers want in a list of recommendations.
1B/OF/DH Chris Carter, Houston Astros
Ownership: CBS 27% | Yahoo! 19% | ESPN 8.6%
You know Carter’s deal. He has struck out more often than I would at a singles luncheon. (I’ve never attended a singles luncheon, but if I had, I surely would have struck out 500 times. Carter hasn’t even reached 400 yet! Maybe I should try singles breakfasts. I love Belgian waffles. Hey, I’m a pretty good-lookin’ guy, but I’m awkward around women.)
Carter did his thing last year: He hit .223 with the 29 jonrones. His M.O. has kind of been MIA this year: Entering play on Wednesday, he had that .192 average and a mere six ding dongs. The strikeout rate is down, but the swinging-strike and chase rates are up. As is the fly-ball rate, and the line-drive percentage is pretty much where he’s compensated.
Carter wasn’t in the lineup for three straight contests before yesterday. It made the news, which begged the question: Is he losing his spot? Bo Porter’s explanation: He’s asked his regular DH to work on some things with the team’s hitting instructors, and it’s more advantageous to sit out so that potential changes can sink in. I’ll buy that.
Porter has been committed to Carter. The manager has seen the kind of damage the slugger can do when he stays back a bit longer and is driving the ball consistently. It looks they may have quieted his bat and shortened his load just a little. Obviously, the Astros are pleased with the initial returns of those tutorial sessions, whatever they worked on.
Carter can be a hard player to own in mixed leagues. The drops began to pile up when the calendar struck May. He’s still owned in most deep leagues, of course. But those in shallow leagues, head-to-head leagues and any setup where there are frequent lineup changes can find a use for the potentially realigned Carter, 27. I like to follow stories of players who are making changes to see what they may yield. I kind of wish he hadn’t hit two round-trippers yesterday; one would have done. C’est la vie.
1B Jesus Aguilar, Cleveland Indians
Ownership: CBS 5% | Yahoo! 0% | ESPN 0.0%
You have heard of Aguilar. Scott Strandberg talked about him a month ago and appears to have a slight crush on him. (I hope that I didn’t steal Scott’s thunder with this rec. It’s nothing personal, if so.)
In terms of Aguilar’s ability and avenues to playing time, Scott has stated much of the case. He’s a good hitter. He’s a bad fielder. The Tribe called him up a couple of days ago because they placed Carlos Santana (concussion-like symptoms) on the 7-day disabled list and Nick Swisher (hyperextended left knee) on the 15-day DL.
The right-handed-hitting Aguilar may not make contact often enough in the majors to produce a beneficial batting average. But, as Scott noted, the 6-foot-3, 250-pounder has a little power, with a career farm ISO of .174. He’s collected only one hit, a single, thus far, but he’s demonstrated his willingness to take a base on balls.
Aguilar’s stay could be short. Both of the injured Indians players could be back in the minimum amount of time. It’d be interesting to see what would happen if the condition of either Santana (seemingly more likely, with an unpredictable head injury) or Swisher were more serious than expected, though. Cleveland has slotted Jason Giambi at DH against right-handers in the absence of the two regulars, but it seems highly unlikely that they’d want to do that for any significant length of time. Aguilar’s glove is a natural fit at DH.
Whereas Carter is a play in leagues with MLB universes, Aguilar is pretty much an AL-only target. For those who play in extremely deep mixed leagues, he might be worth a look. I think he’ll take a little time to adapt to major league pitching, given his slow but steady ascension through the ranks, and again he probably won’t be around for long, so I’d make him a last resort in the mixers.
But I think Aguilar would be a nice target in in a league like AL LABR, where minor leaguers aren’t in the FA pool and salaried players must be active as long as they’re on a real-life 25-man roster but can be reserved if their parent clubs deactivate them. A fantasy owner in such a league could win him and, after he’s optioned to the minors, then save the hefty hitter for down the road, when there might be a more clearly defined role for him.
Nicholas Minnix oversaw baseball content for six years at KFFL, where he held the loose title of Managing Editor for seven and a half before he joined FanGraphs. He played in both Tout Wars and LABR from 2010 through 2014. Follow him on Twitter @NicholasMinnix.
Have an open bench spot in a 12-team H2H league. Looking to roll the dice and catch lightening in a bottle. Who would you recommend on picking up: Carter, Venable, or Revere
Carter. Power points are greater than SB points, generally speaking. I don’t have much trust for Venable, although I’m sure at some point there’ll be a bit of a correction in his line.
Requested Recommendations?
Maybe widely available hitters with juicy upcoming schedules?
Lind, Khris Davis, Jon Singleton (assuming an early June debut).
That’s a good suggestion. Thanks!
I thought this was a great article with good recommendations, and excellent supporting evidence.
A list of recommendations-
Waiver Wire Targets should be guys you feel have the ability to outperform perceived expectations and are available in more than 50% of leagues. They could be owned in 50% or 0% of leagues, but outperforming expectations would be the key requirement and EVIDENCE for the increased expectation, for instance, the Bo Porter comments and hitting coach work regarding Carter above is something that’s not in the stat line and is useful to read.
Contextualizing comments like “his ceiling could be a top 30 OF ROS, but his floor could be back in AAA by the 4th of July” or “if I needed a replacement for an injured Ryan Zimmerman, Chisenhall would probably be a better choice than Gillespie or Valencia, but I wouldn’t take him over Dominguez unless I really was hurting in avg. and good in power categories” would be helpful. Predicting player potential relative to other players can help people use the information in the own specific league situations.
More player recommendations? I love Grey Albright’s humorous two sentences on 30 players everyday, but want more information and stats. The 400 words given to two different players here is thorough, but honestly I’d rather read 100 words, numbers, and linked articles on 8 different players. That’s more work of course.
Awesome input, thank you! It does kind of capture some of the potential trade-offs I, and perhaps others here, have to think about making every time we put virtual pen to paper, unfortunately. Glad to have your feelings on it. I think about including an array of information like that you suggested, but between time, space, attention and other constraints or just perceivable constraints, I sometimes hit the wall of indecision.
I particularly appreciate your point about relativity to other players at the position.
Is the waiver wire an AL only thing? How about an NL player every now and again for us lowlifes in NL only leagues.
I hope I haven’t contributed to a possible NL-only players complex! I will try to keep that in mind. Thanks!
Isn’t Carter’s playing time likely to get squeezed when Singleton comes up soon ?
Marc Krauss and Jesus Guzman are the first to get squeezed, I expect, especially if Carter is hot for a while, obviously.
Would you prefer Cron Over Aguilar in a dynasty?
Yes, definitely. Cron is much more clearly a potential part of his organization’s plans, whether those include their parent club or someone else’s. Plus, he’s a better hitter, from what I and probably most others can tell.
Hey, who do you see as having a better season (deep 5×5 NL-only): Mark Reynolds or Juan Uribe? Would be trading my Uribe (and Antonio Bastardo) for Reynolds… Fangraphs has Uribe with many fewer plate appearances, is why this intrigues me…
Tough call. I like Uribe (relatively). But it’s mostly empty batting average that he’s produced, and there’ll be some regression there, likely. Reynolds is less reliable, in my view, but the potential payoff is greater, significantly, so he’s a sensible acquisition. Not a tough call then, I guess.
Fine article, Nicholas. This is exactly the kind of waiver wire story I want to see — analysis of true waiver wire players that might actually be available in a 10-team AL-only league like mine. And I like the context you offer. It’s good to know, for example, that Aguilar isn’t a good fielder. Even if he can hit, he won’t play as much if he costing his team runs in the field. Thanks for this.
Speaking of marginal hitters, would you prefer Mike Aviles or Michael Choice as a Utility-slot hitter ROS?
Thank you, David Jones. May I call you Davy?
Aviles. I like Choice, but it seems highly unlikely that he’ll have an extended opportunity. But the situation will become a lot clearer as we get into early June. As soon as the FYPD begins, we’ll see whether Texas pursues Kendrys Morales and severely damages Choice’s outlook. If you can wait, cool.
Chris Carter or Khris Davis, OBP and SLG league?
ROS, guess I’ll lean Davis. Really depends on your window, I think. Davis doesn’t walk as often but has a better hit tool to make up the difference and will add to the SLG with that skill as well.
This is interesting, since Carter is the most-ESPN-owned OF available in my deep league, and OF is the only area where I’m thin (don’t really draft OF-heavy, as it’s a seemingly easier position to fill during the season due to less rarity factor). I picked up Dom Brown two weeks ago on waivers, but would you drop him for Carter? My other OF are Quentin, Compliant Pork, Khris Davis, and Michael Brantley, and it’s a 4 OF league with TB, OPS, RC, AVG, HR, and SBN.
Complex categories. And I don’t know who Compliant Pork is, forgive me! I’ll choose him, without knowing his identity. If not him, then … I’m going to say you can kind of afford to ride a hot hand and drop the cold one in a league of that depth, given who’s been available. I would be tempted to side with the thought that Quentin will be hurt again sooner or later, and Brown is showing his true colors (but has health on his side, relative to Quentin, park suited to his ability). I would be tempted to go after Carter.
Ha…Compliant Pork is Josh Willingham. I have ample space on my DL in case Willingham or Quentin get re-injured. But these guys put up good stats when healthy (they’re both healthy for the first time this season). I was going to drop Khris Davis, but now he’s hot again…so I’m thinking it’s between keeping Dom Brown as my back up, or exchanging him for Carter.
I’m not sure I can justify hanging on to a guy who is suspect at best at a time of year, when many of the top prospects in the league are getting poised to come up. Post the first week in June, its likely we could see Taveras, Singleton, Franco, and Polanco all up in the bigs — no way I’d burn a roster spot on Carter over on of those guys…
I totally do have a crush on Aguilar. I have a weird affinity for overweight first-base prospects with fringey gloves. I was borderline intolerable back when Billy Butler was still in the minors.
Weird? Hogwash.
Then you must not be able to think straight after talking about “el Gigante Mulege” Japhet Amador.
don’t call home runs ‘ding dongs’ ever again, ty
Great post and thanks for the context with Aguilar. Needed a pickup in my 18 team mixed after Nava flamed out this week and Aguilar is perfect as a high risk/reward type plug in. I think Waiver Wire posts with a player available in standard leagues and then also a player available is almost all leagues is useful for everybody. Keep it up.