(Very) Early ERA-FIP Streaming Targets

One of my favorite things to do during the first couple months of the season is to scour other rosters and/or the wire for guys that are performing poorly fantasy-wise but have more projectable underlying peripherals. This happens with hitters (see Jason Heyward and his 0.091 BABIP this year) but I feel pitchers are a better target. It’s tougher to “see” a pitcher’s luck. You can watch a guy smash liner after liner to the left fielder, but even when a starter gives up five bloops over short, he gets tagged as “hit around.” So, while very early on, here are the top three big league starters sorted by ERA-FIP (as of last night). These guys have ugly, ugly raw lines after three starts but, hey, there’s reason for hope.

Vance Worley; 10.50 ERA, 3.03 FIP

Kind of hard to believe Worley is only 25, since it seems we are long removed from when the soft-tossing righty was making noise upon his arrival in the big leagues. Traded to the Twins in the offseason, Worley has been absolutely browbeat during his three starts so far in 2013, giving up 14 earned runs in only 12 innings. While some of that is a product of Worley’s abysmally low 9.2% K%, he also hasn’t had much help with the balls in play, allowing a .455 BABIP on the young season. No matter how controllable you think pitcher BABIP is, that’s due for some serious regression. His LOB% (41.4%) is also too low and he pounds the strike zone (career 8.0% BB%). He’ll never be a fantasy mainstay but he’s useful if deployed correctly.

Worley will get the ball tonight against the Angels. Los Angeles is (surprisingly) 13th out of 15 American League teams in runs scored this year and tonight’s game will be played (if played) in nasty, wet conditions with temperatures in the upper-30’s. For a super cheap option in Fangraphs: The Game or as a quick streamer in a deep league with daily lineup changes, he might not be a terrible play.

Wade LeBlanc; 6.75 ERA, 3.03 FIP

Yeah, he plays for the Marlins. Yes, he has a career xFIP in the mid-4s with low strikeout upside. No one is advocating making him a staple in your rotation. But LeBlanc has gotten a bit of an unfair deal so far in 2013, putting up a not-so-sexy 6.75 ERA. The southpaw has actually been… kind of good this year, sitting on a 14/5 K/BB ratio in 14.2 innings while hitters are getting away with a .404 BABIP. There are a few red flags; his SwStr% is still the same as it was last year (mediocre) and his already slow velocity is down another notch but the low walk totals appear to be in line with his improvement the last couple of years.

I certainly can’t advovate rushing out and grabbing LeBlanc unless you are in a super-deep league (like my 20 team dynasty) where there are only a few starting options kicking around on the wire. And I probably wouldn’t stream him against the Reds at Great American this Saturday. But running him out there against a couple weaker opponents when he is home could provide cheap, above (fantasy) replacement level starts here and there. Just be careful playing the matchups.

Edwin Jackson; 6.06 ERA, 2.60 FIP

Jackson is this guy on this list who is closest to a true “buy-low.” Cubs fans are cranky with his 6.06 ERA and E-Jax hasn’t helped himself by walking 10 guys in 16.1 innings. However, his .356 BABIP is well north of his career .307 mark. Same goes for his 55.6% LOB% which projects to regress upwards with time. Perhaps most positive is the fact that he has whiffed more than one-quarter of the batters he has faced this year, supported by a near double-digit SwStr%.

Jackson is scheduled to take on the Brewers Friday night at Miller Park. He should be a solid start there and if an impatient player has already dropped him, snag him before someone else plucks him to be a mid-rotation option for their fantasy rotation. It also couldn’t hurt for those in deeper leagues to toss a line out to a potentially frustrated owner and see if you can buy Jackson for a mediocre guy off to a fast start like Ross Detwiler or Jake Westbrook. It should pay dividends as his on-field performance begins to creep towards his skill predictors.





There are few things Colin loves more in life than a pitcher with a single-digit BB%. Find him on Twitter @soxczar.

24 Comments
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Clint
10 years ago

I was hoping to read this column to help me discover someone out there who could be a hidden gem.

Honestly, if you roster any of these guys you’re doomed. I don’t know what kind of format or league you’re playing in, but you’re better off taking a chance on a prospect with minimal upside for this year or a #5 on a decent team (see Detwiler or Anibal Sanchez).

The three guys you list aren’t a victim of “bad luck”, they’re a victim of just being bad. All three of them are also on abhorrent teams.

Come on now, you’re better than this.

Apocalypse33member
10 years ago
Reply to  Clint

Really? Edwin Jackson has a history of putting up a 6 era? I must have missed those seasons.

Rufus T. Fireflymember
10 years ago
Reply to  Apocalypse33

Also, since when is Anibal Sanchez a 5th starter type?

Clint
10 years ago
Reply to  Apocalypse33

Edwin Jackson has a history of posting good enough stats and ratios to have you finishing about 7th, unless it’s a razz league.

Aaron
10 years ago
Reply to  Clint

“Honestly, if you roster any of these guys you’re doomed.”

Really? Because I’ve got Edwin Jackson, and I’m pretty sure I’m not doomed. My league has a total of 126 pitcher slots, and realistical—

“I don’t know what kind of format or league you’re playing in”

…Aaand there it is.

Clint
10 years ago
Reply to  Aaron

Keep Edwin all year… let us know how things end up. Even if you make the case to stream him as this article suggests, he’s really going to hurt you.

I mean over these three guys I would talk about J.A. Happ, Felix Doubront, Brad Peacock, Tommy Milone, or even the horrid Jhoulys Chacin.

Jason B
10 years ago
Reply to  Aaron

JA Happ over Edwin Jackson?! I would enjoy playing in a league with owners like that…

Benzedrine
10 years ago
Reply to  Clint

Even in my 14 team league, Detweiler and Sanchez are gone. All the SPs left on the wire are injured or guys like Vance Worley. This article seems to focus on the deeper leagues.

jevant
10 years ago
Reply to  Clint

FWIW, I play in a 20 team dynasty, and all three of these guys are owned. If Anibal Sanchez is available on the wire in your league, I suggest you pursue a deeper league. They are more entertaining.

Bill
10 years ago
Reply to  Clint

Wow, I was thinking exactly the opposite. Only LeBlanc is even available in my league. My league is fairly deep, but there are many far deeper. I guess if you are in a 10 team Yahoo! league these guys would be bad, but it’s all relative.

Mike
10 years ago
Reply to  Clint

What kind of format or league do you play in? Man up, dude. If you have better options than these guys in your free agent pool, you need a better league.