Velocity & Pitch Mix Changes (March 29 to 31)
A few days ago, I examined the pitch mix and velocity for all the Opening Day starts. Today, I tried to catch up but failed. I just couldn’t examine another 30 pitchers. Tomorrow, I’m going to try my hardest to give a glimpse at everyone remaining.
My goal in examining these starters is to find ones who have changed over the offseason. As owners, we may need to immediately adjust our projections. Since there is a ton to get through, here are the daily starters ordered by fastball velocity change. Also, to save space, when I mention a pitch changes a certain percentage, I mean percentage points (ex. up 10% = up 10% points).
March 29th
March 29th Starters
| Name | Previous | 2019 | Diff | Pitch Usage Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Freddy Peralta | 90.8 | 92.9 | 2.1 | None |
| Trevor Richards | 90.8 | 91.5 | 0.7 | Added cutter/slider, threw 21% of time |
| Matt Boyd | 90.4 | 91.0 | 0.6 | Dumped sinker for 4-seam |
| Joey Lucchesi | 90.4 | 90.9 | 0.5 | Cut fastball added |
| German Marquez | 95.2 | 95.6 | 0.4 | Slider up 10%, Curve down same |
| Derek Holland | 91.6 | 91.9 | 0.3 | Slider up 13%, Curve and change (3%) down |
| Gerrit Cole | 96.6 | 96.8 | 0.2 | Slider up 12%, from fastball and curve |
| Jack Flaherty | 92.7 | 92.9 | 0.2 | None |
| Matt Harvey | 94.0 | 94.1 | 0.1 | None |
| Nathan Eovaldi | 97.2 | 96.8 | -0.4 | None |
| Matt Shoemaker | 91.3 | 90.2 | -1.1 | None |
| Charlie Morton | 95.7 | 94.5 | -1.2 | Fastball down 10%, all to curve |
| Marco Estrada | 88.6 | 87.3 | -1.3 | None |
| Robbie Ray | 93.7 | 92.4 | -1.3 | None |
| Ross Stripling | 91.7 | 89.9 | -1.8 | None |
| Yusei Kikuchi | – | 93.1 | – | Threw fastball, slider, curve |
Notes
- I’m not worried about Stripling’s velocity for now since he was likely to lose some moving from the bullpen som last season, to starting this season. He may need to dump his slider to take a step forward.
- Even with the added velocity, Peralta is just a streamable option when pitching on the road. He’s too home run prone for Miller Park.
- Lucchesi may be tipping his pitches to batters with two different release points.
- I have no issues streaming Holland depending on the matchup.
- Ray’s a strikeout pitcher so the velocity loss is concerning. Here are its results at differing speeds. pERA is an ERA estimator based just on the pitch’s swinging strike rate and groundball rate with a longer explanation here.
Robbie Ray Fastball Production at Different Velocities
| mph | pERA | GB% | SwStr% | Count |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 91 | 5.47 | 24% | 3.4% | 119 |
| 92 | 5.25 | 31% | 5.0% | 339 |
| 93 | 4.87 | 44% | 5.7% | 522 |
| 94 | 4.34 | 40% | 8.5% | 837 |
| 95 | 4.25 | 37% | 9.0% | 588 |
| 96 | 3.09 | 41% | 13.6% | 360 |
| 97 | 1.76 | 57% | 17.5% | 57 |
March 30th
March 30th Starters
| Name | Previous | 2019 | Diff | Pitch Usage Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Sanchez | 93.7 | 94.8 | 1.1 | None |
| Pablo Lopez | 92.4 | 93.5 | 1.1 | Same |
| Jake Odorizzi | 91.1 | 92.0 | 0.9 | Fastball up 11%, most from slider |
| Trevor Bauer | 94.5 | 95.0 | 0.5 | Dropped curve, change and slider get gains |
| Nick Pivetta | 94.8 | 95.0 | 0.2 | Dropped fastball 13%, no change, all to curve |
| Jake Junis | 91.1 | 91.2 | 0.1 | None |
| Tyler Glasnow | 96.6 | 96.6 | 0.0 | None |
| Kenta Maeda | 91.9 | 91.9 | 0.0 | Silder down 15%, all to change |
| Brandon Woodruff | 95.3 | 95.2 | -0.1 | None |
| Edinson Volquez | 93.1 | 92.9 | -0.2 | Fastball down 13%, to curve and change |
| Mike Leake | 88.7 | 88.4 | -0.3 | None, kitchen sink |
| James Paxton | 95.4 | 95.1 | -0.3 | None |
| Brett Anderson | 90.3 | 89.9 | -0.4 | None |
| Noah Syndergaard | 97.4 | 97.0 | -0.4 | None |
| Dereck Rodriguez | 91.4 | 90.9 | -0.5 | Same |
| Spencer Turnbull | 94.1 | 93.1 | -1.0 | Fastball up 11%, dropped change. |
| Zack Godley | 89.9 | 88.9 | -1.0 | Dropped cutter 10%, to fastball and curve |
| Tyler Anderson | 91.8 | 90.4 | -1.4 | Dropped cutter 14% for curve |
| Stephen Strasburg | 94.5 | 93.0 | -1.5 | None |
| Eduardo Rodriquez | 93.3 | 91.7 | -1.6 | Cutter up 11%, from slider |
| Nate Karns | 92.9 | 91.3 | -1.6 | Fastball up 20%, curve took the hit |
| Yu Darvish | 93.9 | 92.1 | -1.8 | None |
| Bryse Wilson | 95.0 | 92.7 | -2.3 | Change up 13% from slider |
| Colin McHugh | 92.1 | 89.8 | -2.3 | Fastball down 27%, slider up 17%, cutter and curve up |
| Felix Pena | 92.4 | 90.1 | -2.3 | None |
| Dakotah Hudson | 96.0 | 93.5 | -2.5 | Moved 11% from sinker to 4-seam |
| Renaldo Lopez | 95.5 | 92.4 | -3.1 | Dropped curve |
| Nick Margevicius | – | 88.2 | – | Basically, fastball and slider |
Notes
- Odorizzi gets his best results from his fastball. If he could ever develop a good breaker, his value could take off.
- McHugh is making the transition to starting so his velocity will take a hit. It’s not important since he only threw his fastball 22% of the time.
- Maeda is definitely pitching backwards and not relying on his fastball, and for good reason. It did not generate one swinging strike in his first start.
- Volquez will be useless going forward. So is Godley at 89 mph.
- Turnbull reminds me of Carlos Carrasco a few years back when he had a half dozen pitches, half were good, half were junk. Turnbull needs to get rid of everything but the sinker, four-seamer, and slider.
- Andeson lost fastball velocity and is throwing his decent cutter less. Instead, he is throwing a horrible curve to get crushed.
- Wilson throws his fastball 66% of the time while losing over 2 MPH on it. Something isn’t adding up.
- While the velocity drop is concerning for Lopez, he is no longer throwing his useless curve. Bauer also dropped his curve. Pivetta and Turnbull dropped a change.
- Three widely owned pitchers concern me with fastball velocity drop. Here is how Strasburg’s, Rodriguez’s, and Darvish’s fastballs perform at different velocities.
Rodriquez doesn’t see any talent decline as his fastball declines. At least not yet.
Eduardo Rodriguez Fastball Production at Different Velocities
| mph | pERA | GB% | SwStr% | Count |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 91 | 3.88 | 40% | 10.4% | 183 |
| 92 | 3.80 | 22% | 10.2% | 589 |
| 93 | 3.92 | 25% | 10.1% | 774 |
| 94 | 4.11 | 28% | 9.5% | 862 |
| 95 | 3.75 | 52% | 9.0% | 333 |
Strasburg’s results steadily decline as his fastball velocity declines.
Stephen Strasburg Fastball Production at Different Velocities
| mph | pERA | GB% | SwStr% | Count |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 92 | 4.99 | 29% | 5.9% | 135 |
| 93 | 4.72 | 42% | 6.6% | 226 |
| 94 | 4.54 | 44% | 7.2% | 531 |
| 95 | 4.76 | 36% | 7.0% | 587 |
| 96 | 4.28 | 34% | 9.0% | 676 |
| 97 | 3.52 | 35% | 12.1% | 339 |
| 98 | 3.72 | 25% | 10.9% | 64 |
Darvish has a major talent change between 93 mph and 94 mph.
Yu Darvish Fastball Production at Different Velocities
| mph | pERA | GB% | SwStr% | Count |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 91 | 3.95 | 54% | 7.6% | 79 |
| 92 | 4.96 | 21% | 5.0% | 259 |
| 93 | 4.86 | 42% | 6.2% | 341 |
| 94 | 3.64 | 45% | 10.9% | 522 |
| 95 | 3.65 | 55% | 8.8% | 397 |
| 96 | 3.13 | 39% | 13.6% | 317 |
March 31st
March 31st Starters
| Name | Previous | 2019 | Diff | Pitch Usage Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Walker Buehler | 96.2 | 97.4 | 1.2 | None |
| Frankie Montas | 95.8 | 96.9 | 1.1 | Sinker down 23% to a new splitter |
| Zack Wheeler | 95.9 | 97.0 | 1.1 | None |
| Lucas Giolito | 92.4 | 93.5 | 1.1 | None |
| Matt Moore | 92.4 | 93.4 | 1.0 | None |
| Jon Gray | 94.8 | 95.8 | 1.0 | None |
| Sandy Alcantara | 95.5 | 96.2 | 0.7 | Slider, fastball, sinker, change |
| Yonny Chirinos | 93.7 | 94.3 | 0.6 | None |
| Nick Williams | 90.5 | 90.8 | 0.3 | None, kitchen sink |
| Jeff Samardzija | 92.3 | 92.6 | 0.3 | Slider down 15%, spread evenly |
| Patrick Corbin | 90.8 | 91.0 | 0.2 | None |
| Wade Miley | 90.8 | 90.7 | -0.1 | Cutter up 26%, curve and change down |
| Cole Hamels | 92.1 | 92.0 | -0.1 | Dropped sinker for 4-seamer |
| Luke Weaver | 93.7 | 93.5 | -0.2 | None |
| Kyle Wright | 94.0 | 93.8 | -0.2 | Fastball up 14% from curve |
| Michael Wacha | 93.5 | 93.1 | -0.4 | None |
| Lance Lynn | 93.2 | 92.8 | -0.4 | Fastball down 13%, most to cutter/slider |
| Dylan Bundy | 91.6 | 91.1 | -0.5 | Fastball up 12%, all from slider |
| Jake Arrieta | 93.0 | 92.3 | -0.7 | Fastball up 16%, from cutter/slider |
| Rick Porcello | 90.4 | 89.6 | -0.8 | Upped fastball 13% from slider |
| Corbin Burnes | 95.3 | 94.3 | -1.0 | None |
| J.A. Happ | 92.0 | 90.9 | -1.1 | Slider up 14%, from fastball and curve |
| Wade LeBlanc | 86.3 | 85.2 | -1.1 | None |
| Tyler Skaggs | 91.4 | 90.3 | -1.1 | None |
| Sonny Gray | 93.3 | 91.8 | -1.5 | Dropped slider, sinker down 20%, to 4-seam |
| Carlos Carrasco | 93.5 | 92.0 | -1.5 | Curve down 10%, change went to slider |
| Jorge Lopez | 93.7 | 91.8 | -1.9 | Curveball up 17%, few sliders or changes |
| Michael Pineda | 93.9 | 90.3 | -3.6 | Fastball, slider, change. No cutter. |
| Trent Thornton | – | 93.7 | – | Fastball, curve, change, cutter |
| Chris Paddack | – | 94.0 | – | Fastball, change, curve |
Notes
- Alcantara threw his slider 47% of the time. Why not as long as batter keep swinging.
- In classic Astros form, they completely reworked Miley repertoire. It’ll be interesting to see how it works out.
- Montas is throwing a new splitter and 1.1 mph harder. Nice.
- Hamels dropped his sinker for four-seamer and could be an extreme flyball pitcher.
- Porcello needs to see his velo jump back up. He might not be startable right now.
- The Yankees are going full Sonny Gray with a J.A. Happ. His slider usage is up 14% points.
- The big name losing velocity from this group is Carlos Carrasco.
Carlos Carrasco Fastball Production at Different Velocities
| mph | pERA | GB% | SwStr% | Count |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 91 | 5.05 | 32% | 5.8% | 103 |
| 92 | 5.39 | 48% | 2.7% | 367 |
| 93 | 5.35 | 32% | 4.6% | 520 |
| 94 | 4.91 | 33% | 6.4% | 872 |
| 95 | 5.11 | 38% | 5.5% | 548 |
| 96 | 4.61 | 38% | 7.5% | 279 |
| 97 | 4.30 | 29% | 8.8% | 57 |
Jeff, one of the authors of the fantasy baseball guide,The Process, writes for RotoGraphs, The Hardball Times, Rotowire, Baseball America, and BaseballHQ. He has been nominated for two SABR Analytics Research Award for Contemporary Analysis and won it in 2013 in tandem with Bill Petti. He has won four FSWA Awards including on for his Mining the News series. He's won Tout Wars three times, LABR twice, and got his first NFBC Main Event win in 2021. Follow him on Twitter @jeffwzimmerman.
Jeff, these are the best articles! Thank you!!
Thanks for reading